Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Heres Johnny]

oop north said:

Heres Johnny said:

Go back far enough and it was the Golf GTI (1.9 of course).

I think you may be confusing 205 and Golf, there

Yes, my mistake, showing my lack of age!

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

jamoor said:

I think people are obsessed with the £35k a little bit too much.

PCP is popular these days so lets compare the cost of rental plus fuel cost on 10k a year.

Tesla model 3 - https://zen.auto/Configure?id=2061210&calculat... 3 Year lease cost + fuel = 18000+ 900 = £18,900
BMW 3 series https://www.lingscars.com/personal-car-leasing/bmw... - 3 year lease cost + fuel + servicing @ 300 a service = 17,842 + £3800 fuel @ 45mpg + £900 in "servicing" = £22,542

If we switch to the base spec 3 series its a few £thousand cheaper, but still more expensive and worse performance.


There is no market for the 3 series when you purely look at the maths.

Why do you ignore servicing on the Tesla and why £900 on the BMW? A BMW service pack isn't expensive and only needs one service in 3 years 30k miles. Have you fallen for the "A Tesla doesn't need servicing" and then not read the next line which says "Do the brakes at 2 years, an annual inspection is recommended if you drive it in the wet, the filters are recommended...."

It doesn't change your figures much other than to show an immediate bias

A tesla requires no maintanance at all, its entirely optional. Most people renting it for 3 years probbably won't bother servicing it.

If you didn't service your 3 series in 3 years they will void your warranty.

It looks like £300+ for servicing, which makes no difference to the maths. There is no case for the BMW 3 series in any usage scenario if you are leasing it.

I am not even sure if the equipment levels match as the BMW website is so confusing, I thinkthey try to charge £1700 for electric seats for example.

[Heres Johnny]

jamoor said:

A tesla requires no maintanance at all, its entirely optional. Most people renting it for 3 years probbably won't bother servicing it.

If you didn't service your 3 series in 3 years they will void your warranty.

It looks like £300+ for servicing, which makes no difference to the maths. There is no case for the BMW 3 series in any usage scenario if you are leasing it.

I am not even sure if the equipment levels match as the BMW website is so confusing, I thinkthey try to charge £1700 for electric seats for example.

But you can get a heated steering wheel on a BMW - feature matching will never work

You might also need to check any finance agreement if it says any recommended servicing is done because this is what Tesla Actually says:

"Your Tesla does not require annual maintenance and regular fluid changes. Please check your Owner’s Manual for latest maintenance recommendations for your Tesla."

And elsewhere on the same page it says:

Tesla said:

Recommended Maintenance Service
Cabin Air Filter
Your Tesla is equipped with an air filter that prevents pollen, industrial fallout, road dust and other particles from entering through the vents. Tesla recommends replacing your cabin air filter every 2 years.

High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) Filter
If your Tesla is equipped with a HEPA filter, Tesla recommends replacing it every 3 years.

Tire Rotation, Balance and Wheel Alignment
Tesla recommends checking your tires every 10,000-12,000 miles for rotating, balancing and aligning needs. Aggressive driving can lead to premature tire wear and may require more frequent tire service. Unbalanced and misaligned wheels affect handling, tire life and steering components. Refer to tire manufacturer's owner manuals and warranty documentation for additional details.

Brake Fluid Test
Tesla recommends testing brake fluid for contamination every 2 years and replacing as needed.

Air Conditioning Service
An air conditioning service replaces the desiccant to help the longevity and efficiency of the air conditioning system. Tesla recommends an air conditioning service every 2 years for Model S, every 4 years for Model X and every 6 years for Model 3.

Winter Care
Tesla recommends cleaning and lubricating all brake calipers every 12 months or 12,500 mi for cars in cold weather regions.

Which is not "nothing", its actually something

You can ignore, but if your finance agreement says undertake the recommended servicing.. all that needs to be done when due

Incidently I was quoted £400 just for the Hepa filter.

Edited by Heres Johnny on Tuesday 20th August 17:28

[skwdenyer]

Re people asking for a £12-20k EV, that only really works if the batteries are leased on top.

Now maybe that’s an interesting idea - battery lease + free charging for a fixed cost per mile, car for a fixed amount per month?

Then we could properly compare apples and apples in the ICE v EV debate.

The battery in, say, a Model 3 LR is costing Tesla something around $7500. With a typical gross margin that’s about $10k of sales price. There’s not currently all that much scope to slash that.

As VW have said, they will lose money on EV production to start with - their BoM + costs will simply be more than they can sell for.

If punters expect an EV for the same price as an ICE vehicle, including sufficient batteries to assure a decent range, it is hard to see them ever being satisfied.

Hell, you can spend £15k (with no VAT) on a wheelchair powered by lead-acid batteries!:

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

Which is not "nothing", its actually something

You can ignore, but if your finance agreement says undertake the recommended servicing.. all that needs to be done when due

Incidently I was quoted £400 just for the Hepa filter.

Edited by Heres Johnny on Tuesday 20th August 17:28

A major feature like radar cruise, I couldn't find that on the BMW website.

The servicing is just recommend even if we look beyond the finance period it still benefits the Tesla.

Tesla also send people to service your car at home, I also read that they will go to a train station car park or wherever the car is to repair it as it can be unlocked remotely

[T-195]

Burwood said:

jamoor said:

LG9k said:

These are the vehicles the $35k Model 3 was supposed to be competing with, so in terms of achieving mass market adoption, yes they do.

Looking at the sizes and vehicle types (5 seats, sedan), yes they do.

The top of the range models nudge into bottom end Model 3 territory price-wise, yes they do.

These are the cars Tesla are going to have to replace in the USA, not a tiny amount of German luxury vehicles.

Note that here in Europe, the situation is completely different as Honda/Toyota/Nissan don't sell any of these cars (although Toyota plans to sell a massive 500 Camrys in the UK this year having reintroduced them for 2019).

It's not really difficult to understand if you try/aren't a Tesla shill.

Here in Europe they come right up against the C class, A4, and the 3 series.

the 4wd 340i goes right up agains the Model 3, one is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, requires no maintanace etc etc. It's a no brainer.

I'm not knocking the EV but for me the petrol car will have no much more character

Simple question.

How do I make my Tesla faster than it already is. It isn't hard with an M3 plus cool coupe rather than repmobile looks.

If I cared about 0 -60 times my newest car wouldn't be 20 years old.

[Heres Johnny]

jamoor said:

A major feature like radar cruise, I couldn't find that on the BMW website.

The servicing is just recommend even if we look beyond the finance period it still benefits the Tesla.

Tesla also send people to service your car at home, I also read that they will go to a train station car park or wherever the car is to repair it as it can be unlocked remotely

It’s part of the driving assist pack pro - £1500 from memory

Have you checked out the Mobileyes latest system on the 3 series? You should, a few videos in the US - you probably forget that Tesla’s current offering is on a par with the AP1 system they shipped 4 years ago and was the previous generation of system compared to that in the BMW

As for servicing a Tesla, it’s not a condition for warranty, that’s all, it’s still recommended and that’s what most lease agreements require you to do

And Tesla don’t service at home, they only do certain warranty repairs that don’t require a wheel leaving the ground

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

jamoor said:

A major feature like radar cruise, I couldn't find that on the BMW website.

The servicing is just recommend even if we look beyond the finance period it still benefits the Tesla.

Tesla also send people to service your car at home, I also read that they will go to a train station car park or wherever the car is to repair it as it can be unlocked remotely

It’s part of the driving assist pack pro - £1500 from memory

Have you checked out the Mobileyes latest system on the 3 series? You should, a few videos in the US - you probably forget that Tesla’s current offering is on a par with the AP1 system they shipped 4 years ago and was the previous generation of system compared to that in the BMW

As for servicing a Tesla, it’s not a condition for warranty, that’s all, it’s still recommended and that’s what most lease agreements require you to do

And Tesla don’t service at home, they only do certain warranty repairs that don’t require a wheel leaving the ground

I'm pretty sure the mobileye won't get better once you drive it off the forecourt. The model 3 is under continuous development not only that but it's feeds data back to Tesla to improve the system.

For the warranty repairs at home, it's a darn sight better than BMW do. They don't do anything at home.


BMW are rapidly losing their relevance in the market and it will get worse very quickly. It may get better for them but I doubt it.

[anonymous-user]

Can you link some Vids johnny? I'm a sucker for TACC slow TV.

I understand mobileye TACC is more solid, but autopilot is more ambitious with stuff like overtaking cars and gyratory systems.

[Heres Johnny]

jamoor said:

I'm pretty sure the mobileye won't get better once you drive it off the forecourt. The model 3 is under continuous development not only that but it's feeds data back to Tesla to improve the system.

For the warranty repairs at home, it's a darn sight better than BMW do. They don't do anything at home.


BMW are rapidly losing their relevance in the market and it will get worse very quickly. It may get better for them but I doubt it.

You’re probably right - mobileye deliver a working solution - Tesla deliver a pile of ste and take 2 and a half years trying to reach the same level - depends how you want to look at

People with the latest Tesla offering still comment how good there original mobileye system is.

Continual improvement is only worth having if you start from a high base. As I said, the latest system in the BMW is the next generation of system compared to the original Tesla offering which is still seen as good compared to Tesla’s latest. It would be great when someone actually films a side by side comparison

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

You’re probably right - mobileye deliver a working solution - Tesla deliver a pile of ste and take 2 and a half years trying to reach the same level - depends how you want to look at

People with the latest Tesla offering still comment how good there original mobileye system is.

Continual improvement is only worth having if you start from a high base. As I said, the latest system in the BMW is the next generation of system compared to the original Tesla offering which is still seen as good compared to Tesla’s latest. It would be great when someone actually films a side by side comparison

It could be that they're focusing on self driving over radar cruise that coupled with the fleet learning capabilities may put them ahead

[DonkeyApple]

skwdenyer said:

Re people asking for a £12-20k EV, that only really works if the batteries are leased on top.

Now maybe that’s an interesting idea - battery lease + free charging for a fixed cost per mile, car for a fixed amount per month?

Then we could properly compare apples and apples in the ICE v EV debate.

The battery in, say, a Model 3 LR is costing Tesla something around $7500. With a typical gross margin that’s about $10k of sales price. There’s not currently all that much scope to slash that.

As VW have said, they will lose money on EV production to start with - their BoM + costs will simply be more than they can sell for.

If punters expect an EV for the same price as an ICE vehicle, including sufficient batteries to assure a decent range, it is hard to see them ever being satisfied.

Hell, you can spend £15k (with no VAT) on a wheelchair powered by lead-acid batteries!:

I don’t think anyone asked for a 12-20k EV

[hyphen]

ZesPak said:

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Out of interest, what was the fad before Tesla?

South Park did a whole show about the Toyota Prius (Pious) and the early hybrid smugness in California.

Edited by hyphen on Tuesday 20th August 21:17

[DonkeyApple]

hyphen said:

ZesPak said:

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Out of interest, what was the fad before Tesla?

South Park did a whole show about the Toyota Prius (Pious) and the early hybrid smugness in California.

Edited by hyphen on Tuesday 20th August 21:17

And there was a movie called Get Shorty that mocked the minivan fad before the Prius fad.

[hyphen]

Never a dull moment with this company

Walmart has today filed a lawsuit against Tesla, after their Tesla solar panels caused fires at seven of its stores...

[Some Gump]

Heres Johnny said:

It’s part of the driving assist pack pro - £1500 from memory

Have you checked out the Mobileyes latest system on the 3 series? You should, a few videos in the US - you probably forget that Tesla’s current offering is on a par with the AP1 system they shipped 4 years ago and was the previous generation of system compared to that in the BMW

No,the BMW has a clever version of radar adaptive cruise and lane assist. The tesla has autopilot and full self drive which are totally, totally different to what the mobileye system offers. Also it wasn't made in an oldfashioned car plant. It was made in a gigafactory. That's modern.

That's the difference between tesla people and not tesla people. It's not about what the car can do now, it's about what the car will be able to do in the future. Only Tesla have AP and FSD. Elon said so.

[anonymous-user]

hyphen said:

Never a dull moment with this company

Walmart has today filed a lawsuit against Tesla, after their Tesla solar panels caused fires at seven of its stores...

Explains all the recent solar pumps!

[Heres Johnny]

Some Gump said:

Heres Johnny said:

It’s part of the driving assist pack pro - £1500 from memory

Have you checked out the Mobileyes latest system on the 3 series? You should, a few videos in the US - you probably forget that Tesla’s current offering is on a par with the AP1 system they shipped 4 years ago and was the previous generation of system compared to that in the BMW

No,the BMW has a clever version of radar adaptive cruise and lane assist. The tesla has autopilot and full self drive which are totally, totally different to what the mobileye system offers. Also it wasn't made in an oldfashioned car plant. It was made in a gigafactory. That's modern.

That's the difference between tesla people and not tesla people. It's not about what the car can do now, it's about what the car will be able to do in the future. Only Tesla have AP and FSD. Elon said so.

I almost thought you were serious until I read your last 3 words.

Some people however have probably read it and nodded in agreement saying “I knew the Tesla stuff was loads better, he owns a rocket ship company too”.

[DonkeyApple]

hyphen said:

Never a dull moment with this company

Walmart has today filed a lawsuit against Tesla, after their Tesla solar panels caused fires at seven of its stores...

They’ve sold 7 sets of solar panels? Fake news surely?

[skwdenyer]

DonkeyApple said:

I don’t think anyone asked for a 12-20k EV

DonkeyApple said:

If you are in the market for or have the ability to pay for a £35k+ car in the first instance. And that whittles the number of consumers down significantly before you even get to whether the usage requirements of the consumer can then fit, that whittles it down further.

There is a really good reason as to why today almost no one on the planet will be buying an EV. But tomorrow when they are cheap enough to compete at the mass market end where most consumers make their purchases then it will be a very different matter.

What’s more, very many of the people currently trying to state that range or charging in the Outer Hebrides is what stops them will mysteriously go quiet when the EV version of their purchase point is cheaper and they have one on their drive and love it.

I personally think we will see the real change when we’ll built, practical EVs can be bought for under £20k as that brings them bang into the realms of the mass market where most new purchases are £12-25k

Under 20k was your comment, to be fair. That wheelchair with VAT added (since it is VAT-free for the intended users) is £17.4k today... To get a £20k car with a decent range requires that car to be about £12k without a battery (but including everything else including dealer margin). That's going to represent a substantial "step down" for most buyers at that price range.

Battery prices have come down a long way, but it is hard to see that price trend continuing forever. Tesla have some big efficiency gains over others right now which (despite the dismissive attitudes of some on here) are a *huge* part of how you make a cheaper, viable EV (by being able to cut battery size).

In any case, people are wont to say "it's all about the monthlies." Since the residuals curve on an ICE car is likely to start looking horrid pretty quickly, the problem may simply go away. Ireland has already proposed no ICE vehicles from 2030 and floated the idea of banning all ICE vehicles from 2045. That isn't all that far away; we've got precious little time before the depreciation curve starts to look epic on a non-EV of any kind.