Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[DonkeyApple]

Dave Hedgehog said:

DonkeyApple said:

An interesting article on autonomous driving. Very brief and simplified but brings in commentary from a larger than usual number of sources.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49420570

an interesting read, but it should be noted that going fast on a track is infinity easier than perfecting autonomous driving on a road

Indeed. It’s the later section of the article where it makes that exact case that is interesting.

[Burwood]

Dave Hedgehog said:

AstonZagato said:

Quite bizarre to watch - silence and speed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=109&am...

Porsche Taycan full Ring lap in 7:42

damn you porsche i already wanted one of these, now doubly so ....

shame i am a pleb lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=244do_3Zxus

on excitement factor alone. What a machine. The overrun nearer the end!!!

[Tuna]

DonkeyApple said:

Indeed. It’s the later section of the article where it makes that exact case that is interesting.

Here's the elephant in the room from that article:

BBC said:

At the moment, on average humans drive for at least eight million hours before misidentifying something that leads to an accident. Currently, AVs can only manage 10,000-30,000 hours.

"When you have a number like that, it's sending big flashing signals there's a lot of work to be done," warns Hitachi Vantara's Wael Elrifai.

[hyphen]

Tesla expected to raise prices in China on Friday, and potentially again in December too.

Also they, like others, are planning to maximize the number of cars they get into China before the December tariff hikes. But Tesla, if they are making less cars than the demand, then some buyers (less profitable) are going to be bumped down the list?

[Tuna]

jamoor said:

Makes me wonder where supercars will belong as their major advantage would have been their powertrains but in the future they may all share broadly similar ones.

I'd expect more dramatic aero and smart suspension, along with solutions for range and racing. The Lotus Evija certainly seems to be heading in that direction.

[Burwood]

skwdenyer said:

hyphen said:

Musk even got Space X to buy $255 million of junk Solar City bonds.


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-m...

article about Tesla's Solar City aquisition and upcoming lawsuit said:

On October 28, 2016, just before shareholders were set to vote on the acquisition of SolarCity, Musk strode onto a platform erected on the set of Desperate Housewives at Universal Studios’ back lot in Los Angeles. He talked about the existential threat presented by global warming and the desperate need for sustainable energy. Then he gestured to a group of houses that had been set up around him. They might look normal, he said, but they actually featured a revolutionary new product called the Solar Roof—shingles that would last longer and cost less than a regular roof, even before factoring in electricity. Tesla expected production to begin the following summer.

The next month, shareholders approved Tesla’s acquisition of SolarCity. “Vote tally shows ~85% of unaffiliated shareholders in favor of the Tesla/SolarCity merger!” Musk tweeted. The deal doubled Tesla’s debt load, but it was good for Musk, who converted his stake in SolarCity into more than $500 million in Tesla stock. By preventing SolarCity from collapsing, he also shored up his most valuable asset: investor faith in his own genius. If any piece of his empire had faltered—if Musk were shown to be fallible rather than superhuman—it would have cast doubt on the narrative that enables him to raise cheap capital for his money-losing enterprises.

“Thanks for believing,” Musk tweeted to his shareholders.

Article says that the shingles are just normal roof shingles in that presentation, and they didn't exist! Musk was just lying to get the aquisition done!

Edited by hyphen on Monday 26th August 22:17

Interesting article.

The Buffalo plant deal wasn’t struck with Tesla; it wasn’t even struck with Solar City. It was struck with a company that Solar City bought out after New York did the deal. It may have been a dodgy deal, but it wasn’t Musk’s dodgy deal.

The bigger question is this: what has Actually happened to Solar City? Why have their sales tanked?

All his family made a fortune on that deal as opposed to being wiped out

[Burwood]

Tuna said:

jamoor said:

Makes me wonder where supercars will belong as their major advantage would have been their powertrains but in the future they may all share broadly similar ones.

I'd expect more dramatic aero and smart suspension, along with solutions for range and racing. The Lotus Evija certainly seems to be heading in that direction.

I expect you’ll still want the badge.

[BenjiS]

Tuna said:

DonkeyApple said:

Indeed. It’s the later section of the article where it makes that exact case that is interesting.

Here's the elephant in the room from that article:

BBC said:

At the moment, on average humans drive for at least eight million hours before misidentifying something that leads to an accident. Currently, AVs can only manage 10,000-30,000 hours.

"When you have a number like that, it's sending big flashing signals there's a lot of work to be done," warns Hitachi Vantara's Wael Elrifai.

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

[Burwood]

Agreed that didn’t make sense. And I just googled the topic. The industry stats say a policy holder claims, on average, once every 17.9 years

[EddieSteadyGo]

Tuna said:

jamoor said:

Makes me wonder where supercars will belong as their major advantage would have been their powertrains but in the future they may all share broadly similar ones.

I'd expect more dramatic aero and smart suspension, along with solutions for range and racing. The Lotus Evija certainly seems to be heading in that direction.

In a way, we have already been through a similar revolution when quartz replaced mechanical watches in the 1970's. When quartz came along it beat traditional mechanical watches in almost every objective way. Suddenly every watch could be accurate and so accuracy ceased to be a reason to pay more for most consumers.

It's likely the same will happen with supercars - what will be the point of trying to make a faster supercar when before long regular hot/ish versions of mid-priced saloons will be capable of sub 3 seconds 0-60mph and 10 second quarter mile times?

We aren't quite at that point yet, but before we do get there, supercar manufacturers are going to have needed to rethink their strategy. If I were in that sector, I'd be concentrating on developing beautiful, intricate and overtly over-engineered products rather than trying to produce a car which smashes the latest Nurburgring time.

[TooLateForAName]

BenjiS said:

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

It doesn't say 1 person, it says humans and refers to a specific cause of accidents. Presumably there is 1 accident due to misdentification of whatever for every 8 million hours of human driving.

[BenjiS]

TooLateForAName said:

BenjiS said:

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

It doesn't say 1 person, it says humans and refers to a specific cause of accidents. Presumably there is 1 accident due to misdentification of whatever for every 8 million hours of human driving.

I note since the article was originally quoted in this thread, the BBC have edited it and added the word ‘collectively’ between ‘humans’ and ‘drive’ so it makes a little more sense, although it still doesn’t really make it clear what they’re saying.

[Burwood]

TooLateForAName said:

BenjiS said:

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

It doesn't say 1 person, it says humans and refers to a specific cause of accidents. Presumably there is 1 accident due to misdentification of whatever for every 8 million hours of human driving.

Does anyone see the irony in that definition. Accidents happen all the time from not seeing someone or thing. I would argue not seeing ‘it’ as misidentification. You thought you saw nothing when in fact it’s something.

As an aside I’ve noticed my own driving is worse with active cruise engaged. I just don’t pay as much attention to what’s going on.

[Tuna]

BenjiS said:

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

Yes, - that means many drivers will go through an entire lifetime without serious accident.

[Some Gump]

Tuna said:

BenjiS said:

Eh? 8,000,000 hours is 913 years.

I’m 42, passed my test at 17 and therefore even if I drove every minute of every day since, I’d still have only clocked up 219,000 hours.

Yes, - that means many drivers will go through an entire lifetime without serious accident.

You're looking at different stats.
Hitachi said "due to missidentification".
The average policy holder claims once in near 18 years, but those claims will include theft, fire, crashing because you were going too fast, tree falling on the car, crashing due to bad anticipation, etc etc.
I also think that the way it was worded, he's not counting failure to observe in that 8 million hours. He's specifically referring to when someone looked, thought they saw one thing but it was another. Like a stop sign, a filtered traffic light, a kerb in the carpark they thought was a metal drain. (Kid at school wrote off an ax with that one! ).

Soo basically you can both be right simultaneously

[hyphen]

"As part of its EV push into the European market, Audi has launched a 71 kWh (official 186 miles range), shorter-range version of its e-tron SUV in Norway. Dubbed the e-tron 50, the all-electric vehicle comes loaded with a generous set of standard features and is priced at a very competitive NOK 499,999 (around $55,300) OTR.

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-launches-short-rang...

[skwdenyer]

Burwood said:

All his family made a fortune on that deal as opposed to being wiped out

Err, that's not the deal that was in question. The "dodgy deal" (with the local government) was done well before even Solar City were on the scene.

My question was why have Solar City's sales tanked recently?

[jamoor]

hyphen said:

"As part of its EV push into the European market, Audi has launched a 71 kWh (official 186 miles range), shorter-range version of its e-tron SUV in Norway. Dubbed the e-tron 50, the all-electric vehicle comes loaded with a generous set of standard features and is priced at a very competitive NOK 499,999 (around $55,300) OTR.

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-launches-short-rang...

Is that even comparable? The basic model 3 has 240 miles of range official.

[skwdenyer]

jamoor said:

hyphen said:

"As part of its EV push into the European market, Audi has launched a 71 kWh (official 186 miles range), shorter-range version of its e-tron SUV in Norway. Dubbed the e-tron 50, the all-electric vehicle comes loaded with a generous set of standard features and is priced at a very competitive NOK 499,999 (around $55,300) OTR.

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-launches-short-rang...

Is that even comparable? The basic model 3 has 240 miles of range official.

Comparable to what? A leaf? It suggests to me Audi think their buyers want fashion accessories rather than practical automobiles

[hyphen]

jamoor said:

hyphen said:

"As part of its EV push into the European market, Audi has launched a 71 kWh (official 186 miles range), shorter-range version of its e-tron SUV in Norway. Dubbed the e-tron 50, the all-electric vehicle comes loaded with a generous set of standard features and is priced at a very competitive NOK 499,999 (around $55,300) OTR.

https://www.teslarati.com/audi-launches-short-rang...

Is that even comparable? The basic model 3 has 240 miles of range official.

If the norweiget Tesco is a mile down the road from Bjørn's house, and family is all local, and other forms of transport are used too, then perhaps a 10 mile range would be sufficient!

And remember that these are the list prices, and if demand is low, more room to do deals than Tesla can offer.

Edited by hyphen on Thursday 29th August 00:18