Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Mr2Mike said:
WestyCarl said:
No Manufacturers regularly think up excuses to beat up tier 1 suppliers on costs for current parts retroactively.
Yes, this is part of the job of any supply chain management, they should be looking to reduce costs on parts all the time. However, you don't normally try to get discounts on parts bought years before at an agreed price.Mr2Mike said:
WestyCarl said:
No Manufacturers regularly think up excuses to beat up tier 1 suppliers on costs for current parts retroactively.
Yes, this is part of the job of any supply chain management, they should be looking to reduce costs on parts all the time. However, you don't normally try to get discounts on parts bought years before at an agreed price.The latest " genius idea" by Makers is "Pay to Play". Before getting an RFQ for the next model you need to pay a cash lump sum to them. Apparently this is to cover the extra costs for sending you the RFQ and working with you.........
At the end of the day it's about leverage. 5 yrs ago Tesla had very little, now they have alot more and are starting to use it to improve their financial position.
Welshbeef said:
This happens ALL the time in the supermaket business
Having supplied the big 4 for over 20 years it does not happen all the time in fact I've never been approached in that way, they do not ask for back dated agreements to repay previous revenue, they do ask for rebates and marketing funding in advance of a product launch and range review but that is part of the upfront negotiation it is not demanded retrospectively. Wills2 said:
Welshbeef said:
This happens ALL the time in the supermaket business
Having supplied the big 4 for over 20 years it does not happen all the time in fact I've never been approached in that way, they do not ask for back dated agreements to repay previous revenue, they do ask for rebates and marketing funding in advance of a product launch and range review but that is part of the upfront negotiation it is not demanded retrospectively. 
RobDickinson said:
The shorts position is the stock is worthless
Incorrect. The shorts position could be:1. A hedge against another position/derivative play
2. They think the stock is worth less than it's price today
3. In some cases it's pure gambling, others it's hedging by institutions etc
Burwood said:
RobDickinson said:
The shorts position is the stock is worthless
Incorrect. The shorts position could be:1. A hedge against another position/derivative play
2. They think the stock is worth less than it's price today
3. In some cases it's pure gambling, others it's hedging by institutions etc
egomeister said:
Most of the short cases I've seen give it a zero or near zero value, but that's not to say that other people are making a more subtle negative case.
if you've seen them can you tell us more? what size positions are these? which institutions?running shorts is expensive and timing is everything (and needs big cajones). a zero price would be cheap compared to a target price of say 250, but getting to zero or below 100 might take some time even in a collapse.
CABC said:
if you've seen them can you tell us more? what size positions are these? which institutions?
running shorts is expensive and timing is everything (and needs big cajones). a zero price would be cheap compared to a target price of say 250, but getting to zero or below 100 might take some time even in a collapse.
Mark Spiegel or Montana Skeptic have probably made the case most publically, but other experienced shorts such as Jim Chanos share the sentiment.running shorts is expensive and timing is everything (and needs big cajones). a zero price would be cheap compared to a target price of say 250, but getting to zero or below 100 might take some time even in a collapse.
Spiegel has a presentation: https://www.scribd.com/document/378373211/Tesla-St... and has been on a few podcasts I have listened to discussing it at length. Montana Skeptic has been on the Quoth the Raven podcast a few times making his case, often against a Tesla bull.
egomeister said:
Mark Spiegel or Montana Skeptic have probably made the case most publically, but other experienced shorts such as Jim Chanos share the sentiment.
Spiegel has a presentation: https://www.scribd.com/document/378373211/Tesla-St... and has been on a few podcasts I have listened to discussing it at length. Montana Skeptic has been on the Quoth the Raven podcast a few times making his case, often against a Tesla bull.
useful links, thanks.Spiegel has a presentation: https://www.scribd.com/document/378373211/Tesla-St... and has been on a few podcasts I have listened to discussing it at length. Montana Skeptic has been on the Quoth the Raven podcast a few times making his case, often against a Tesla bull.
i have no beef against Musk. People who get some things done will often piss many off along the way. I think he's been a good disrupter. However, Tesla equity is toast so i'm looking at what a good short strategy is. they're worth more than zero probably, not sure by how much!
zubzob said:
Haha. That document reminds me of one of those scammy, super long landing pages you used to get from motivational speakers 10 years ago.
I'm not saying they are totally wrong. But needless to say, the document is obviously very biased. For example, the document has literally one line about gigafactories:
"Panasonic’s so called “investment” in the Gigafactory is really a capital lease of its equipment to Tesla."
Not exactly a balanced or detailed treatment of a partnership that built, at the time, the biggest factory in the world. Tesla have approval for the new gigafactories in China and Germany too. They claim to be producing the cheapest EV batteries in the world . (I stress 'claim').
I think there is much wrong with Tesla, but yo give them credit, they seem to be contenders at least, in the battery race.
like so much in the modern world (well, forever really) the answer is somewhere in the middle.I'm not saying they are totally wrong. But needless to say, the document is obviously very biased. For example, the document has literally one line about gigafactories:
"Panasonic’s so called “investment” in the Gigafactory is really a capital lease of its equipment to Tesla."
Not exactly a balanced or detailed treatment of a partnership that built, at the time, the biggest factory in the world. Tesla have approval for the new gigafactories in China and Germany too. They claim to be producing the cheapest EV batteries in the world . (I stress 'claim').
I think there is much wrong with Tesla, but yo give them credit, they seem to be contenders at least, in the battery race.
Edited by zubzob on Thursday 26th July 17:15
they have value and will be bought by somebody. equity holders should expect a haircut.
CABC said:
zubzob said:
Haha. That document reminds me of one of those scammy, super long landing pages you used to get from motivational speakers 10 years ago.
I'm not saying they are totally wrong. But needless to say, the document is obviously very biased. For example, the document has literally one line about gigafactories:
"Panasonic’s so called “investment” in the Gigafactory is really a capital lease of its equipment to Tesla."
Not exactly a balanced or detailed treatment of a partnership that built, at the time, the biggest factory in the world. Tesla have approval for the new gigafactories in China and Germany too. They claim to be producing the cheapest EV batteries in the world . (I stress 'claim').
I think there is much wrong with Tesla, but yo give them credit, they seem to be contenders at least, in the battery race.
like so much in the modern world (well, forever really) the answer is somewhere in the middle.I'm not saying they are totally wrong. But needless to say, the document is obviously very biased. For example, the document has literally one line about gigafactories:
"Panasonic’s so called “investment” in the Gigafactory is really a capital lease of its equipment to Tesla."
Not exactly a balanced or detailed treatment of a partnership that built, at the time, the biggest factory in the world. Tesla have approval for the new gigafactories in China and Germany too. They claim to be producing the cheapest EV batteries in the world . (I stress 'claim').
I think there is much wrong with Tesla, but yo give them credit, they seem to be contenders at least, in the battery race.
Edited by zubzob on Thursday 26th July 17:15
they have value and will be bought by somebody. equity holders should expect a haircut.
I think the document was the visuals to go along with spoken presentation, so should be taken in that context (this one I think: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCMTxtUz-O8 )
I've listened to/watched hours and hours of discussion about the investment case for Tesla, and have generally found the bear case more persuasive. CABC, it's important to be clear about there being value within Tesla, and Tesla having a value. For sure there is value in their tech and brand, but that doesn't mean the entity has value for investment if the liabilities exceed that. I don't think even the harshest bear case suggests they have nothing of value, but almost certainly they value the equity at zero.
I also find that people (the Tesla bulls in particular), don't distinguish between attacking the investment case in Tesla, and attacking Tesla or Elon Musk themselves. I'm an engineer myself and have huge admiration for what Musk & Tesla have achieved - they've changed the course of the automotive industry and will go down in history as such. However, that doesn't mean that Musk and his company are not flawed or that the investment case makes sense.
egomeister said:
it's important to be clear about there being value within Tesla, and Tesla having a value.
Yes. and i don't know where the numbers really are. I suspect when the collapse starts they'll be some predators circling to make an offer rather than wait until full bankruptcy. Yes, they'll be competition. These predators will have large spreadsheets including that famous line item "goodwill".it'll be interesting and i don't believe anyone who says they know what'll happen!
CABC said:
egomeister said:
it's important to be clear about there being value within Tesla, and Tesla having a value.
Yes. and i don't know where the numbers really are. I suspect when the collapse starts they'll be some predators circling to make an offer rather than wait until full bankruptcy. Yes, they'll be competition. These predators will have large spreadsheets including that famous line item "goodwill".it'll be interesting and i don't believe anyone who says they know what'll happen!
egomeister said:
The predators will most likely be buying the debt. Remind me who it was who bought some earlier this year? Hungarian chap, George something or other I think...
well yes, he'll get paid first.i have no real idea what'll happen. the predators i'm thinking of aren't the GSs of this world but the likes of GM, VAG etc who'll put that Goodwill value at a higher level and want to grab the assets before their competitors. If no industry players come forward then yes, the hedge funds will hope to mop up by buying discounted debt.
As i say, i have no idea. interesting to see the bears&bulls so far apart on this and so passionate too.
Burwood said:
Wills2 said:
Welshbeef said:
This happens ALL the time in the supermaket business
Having supplied the big 4 for over 20 years it does not happen all the time in fact I've never been approached in that way, they do not ask for back dated agreements to repay previous revenue, they do ask for rebates and marketing funding in advance of a product launch and range review but that is part of the upfront negotiation it is not demanded retrospectively. AstonZagato said:
The most astonishing thing is the market capitalisation per car produced.
Ford? $6.7k
BMW? $24.0k
Tesla? $534.1K (!!)
As a disruptor with a huge lead in a niche segment, it ought to be at a premium to BMW per car produced. But 20x? Not sure.
I wouldn't say the BMW 3 series/A4/C class is exactly a niche segment.Ford? $6.7k
BMW? $24.0k
Tesla? $534.1K (!!)
As a disruptor with a huge lead in a niche segment, it ought to be at a premium to BMW per car produced. But 20x? Not sure.
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