Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
RobDickinson said:
22 weeks left this year.
At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
Probably another .5bn? At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
It does see to me that if they keep production up and are actually selling every car they build then they’re on to a winner.
jamoor said:
AstonZagato said:
The most astonishing thing is the market capitalisation per car produced.
Ford? $6.7k
BMW? $24.0k
Tesla? $534.1K (!!)
As a disruptor with a huge lead in a niche segment, it ought to be at a premium to BMW per car produced. But 20x? Not sure.
I wouldn't say the BMW 3 series/A4/C class is exactly a niche segment.Ford? $6.7k
BMW? $24.0k
Tesla? $534.1K (!!)
As a disruptor with a huge lead in a niche segment, it ought to be at a premium to BMW per car produced. But 20x? Not sure.
RobDickinson said:
22 weeks left this year.
At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
Revenue, not profit. Besides if selling at a loss it’s not a good thing is it? At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
My opinion, musk will orchestrate a one time profit with which he can go to the debt or equity markets are get 7-10b in new cash. Then it’s burn baby burn on that pile.
I was speaking to someone from Tesla a few weeks ago. Who told me there was still no money made on the sales cost of a car and that staff don't get a discount due to this. They get 0% on finance instead.
He also told me there is still no confirmed model 3 euro spec. But they are hopeful of tests drives near the end of the year.
I would love to see Tesla do well. I feel they way to do this might be to move Elon away from his social media accounts.
He also told me there is still no confirmed model 3 euro spec. But they are hopeful of tests drives near the end of the year.
I would love to see Tesla do well. I feel they way to do this might be to move Elon away from his social media accounts.
Edited by Jordan210 on Friday 27th July 09:08
RobDickinson said:
22 weeks left this year.
At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
Where are you getting these profit figures from? The issue is they aren't making any profit as the gross margin on sales (which I think you're referring to) is eaten up by the cost base. At 5k model 3 a week. Average $70k each at 30 percent profit that's over $2bn profit. Plus whatever they make on roughly 50k model s/x
Burwood said:
Revenue, not profit. Besides if selling at a loss it’s not a good thing is it?
No, profit, revenue of 110,000 cars at 70k is 7.7bn30 percent profit was a guess from here on the basic long range model not the more profitable 4wd or performance ones.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teard...
RobDickinson said:
Burwood said:
Revenue, not profit. Besides if selling at a loss it’s not a good thing is it?
No, profit, revenue of 110,000 cars at 70k is 7.7bn30 percent profit was a guess from here on the basic long range model not the more profitable 4wd or performance ones.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-model-3-teard...
You are either intentionally obtuse or a Troll, Rob. 18.8% is the last quarter Gross margin(gross profit). It was 22% previously and 28% three quarters ago. Conclusion, it's shrinking and i'll explain that for you. It ,means it's worse than ever. It means LESS margin, less money per car.
The only thing I have to say about SCALE is you are correct it is not scaling 1:1. It's actually worse. Open you eyes Rob and read the Sales, General and Admin costs. It used to be 18% of Revenue. It is now 2,476,500 or 21% of revenue. This means Rob that the more they sell the more this figure will go up. Losses will get bigger. If Gross margins are 18.8 and Sales costs are 21% it aint good is it? And onto of this Musk forked out 600M in employee stock options and 'additional' expenses of 106M.
It's ok to have an opinion that Tesla is awesome. But to say they will thrive in the medium term is delusional. They will run out of money unless they tap shareholders for more money and there is no clear path to profitability. Their CEO is distracted with many vanity projects and he seems unstable and in need of some help with his public persona.
The only thing I have to say about SCALE is you are correct it is not scaling 1:1. It's actually worse. Open you eyes Rob and read the Sales, General and Admin costs. It used to be 18% of Revenue. It is now 2,476,500 or 21% of revenue. This means Rob that the more they sell the more this figure will go up. Losses will get bigger. If Gross margins are 18.8 and Sales costs are 21% it aint good is it? And onto of this Musk forked out 600M in employee stock options and 'additional' expenses of 106M.
It's ok to have an opinion that Tesla is awesome. But to say they will thrive in the medium term is delusional. They will run out of money unless they tap shareholders for more money and there is no clear path to profitability. Their CEO is distracted with many vanity projects and he seems unstable and in need of some help with his public persona.
Edited by Burwood on Friday 27th July 09:42
Edited by Burwood on Friday 27th July 09:42
Is the average transaction price really as high as $70k on a model 3? If the perf version is 64k I am surprised average price to date is 10% higher than that
Anyway - perfectly possible to make a chunky gross profit / margin % on producing / selling something but make a net loss overall (because you aren’t making / selling enough items to cover your overhead costs). The two aren’t mutually exclusive
Anyway - perfectly possible to make a chunky gross profit / margin % on producing / selling something but make a net loss overall (because you aren’t making / selling enough items to cover your overhead costs). The two aren’t mutually exclusive
oop north said:
Is the average transaction price really as high as $70k on a model 3? If the perf version is 64k I am surprised average price to date is 10% higher than that
Anyway - perfectly possible to make a chunky gross profit / margin % on producing / selling something but make a net loss overall (because you aren’t making / selling enough items to cover your overhead costs). The two aren’t mutually exclusive
Rob doesn't get that. And my analysis above also proves that the overhead isn't exactly fixed. It's variable and perhaps should be added 'above the line' as a direct cost.Anyway - perfectly possible to make a chunky gross profit / margin % on producing / selling something but make a net loss overall (because you aren’t making / selling enough items to cover your overhead costs). The two aren’t mutually exclusive
oop north said:
Is the average transaction price really as high as $70k on a model 3? If the perf version is 64k I am surprised average price to date is 10% higher than that
No prob not but I've cut 300 million of the profit so they'll make that at 60k each, they'll make more profit on the higher end ones than the cheaper one looked at. RobDickinson said:
We'll see. According to you lot they should have been bust months ago.
we'll see. Is that it. Show me where I said they would be bust months ago? Ive been scathing of management and they deserve it. I predict there could well be a profit this quarter. Engineered of course, followed by dilution (capital raising of $7-$9B). the quarter after that will be a huge loss as you can't stop spending for too long.
You aren't an investor. I think you want or own one of their products. Thats great. I like their products. They'll cool cars.
RobDickinson said:
oop north said:
Is the average transaction price really as high as $70k on a model 3? If the perf version is 64k I am surprised average price to date is 10% higher than that
No prob not but I've cut 300 million of the profit so they'll make that at 60k each, they'll make more profit on the higher end ones than the cheaper one looked at. 
Impossible to say with any degree of accuracy, whatsoever. There are so many other Long opportunities, i don't see the risk/reward in a long position.zubzob said:
But my question was more to the bears, do you see non-car sales as key to Tesla's success or not?
They might be key to it's success, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's deliverable. I think they have much more chance to succeed in the retail market for this kind of thing, based on brand reputation and potential synergies with the car business. If you look at the presentation I linked to earlier it's clear how much competition there is in the commercial space for battery systems, from some very heavyweight players.Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff