Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Heres Johnny said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
Munter said:
I accept it. But it appears some other posters were edging as close to saying "EVs work for everybody all the time" as they could without saying it. But it's clearly not true.
They work best for people in a "Goldilocks" zone. That zone has grown. But it's still not everybody.
There are plenty of people who will, once or twice this week, get in the car when it's cold and dark at 06:00 drive 2-3 hours, park somewhere that doesn't have a charger, spend the day at that location/fly away for the week, then drive 2-3 hours home in the cold and dark. Sure it might be 1 in a few hundred of us. But we're out there and the numbers for "what range has it got in the worst conditions", don't seem to be high on the list of promotional values.
I'd love a Model3 or similar. But if I'm going to commit to 3 or 4 years finance, or £40-50K in cash on a car, I need to be sure it's going to do the job on the worst day of the year when everything has gone tits up. I still don't see numbers to convince me of that.
So it grates a bit when people are trying to convince us all, it'll work for everybody.
range is not an issue for the majority of drivers now with current EVs price and charging for those with no allocated parking are far more of a problemThey work best for people in a "Goldilocks" zone. That zone has grown. But it's still not everybody.
There are plenty of people who will, once or twice this week, get in the car when it's cold and dark at 06:00 drive 2-3 hours, park somewhere that doesn't have a charger, spend the day at that location/fly away for the week, then drive 2-3 hours home in the cold and dark. Sure it might be 1 in a few hundred of us. But we're out there and the numbers for "what range has it got in the worst conditions", don't seem to be high on the list of promotional values.
I'd love a Model3 or similar. But if I'm going to commit to 3 or 4 years finance, or £40-50K in cash on a car, I need to be sure it's going to do the job on the worst day of the year when everything has gone tits up. I still don't see numbers to convince me of that.
So it grates a bit when people are trying to convince us all, it'll work for everybody.
a Tesla would easily do you scenario, dont forget you can power them off
Of course I managed it, 6AM to 7:30PM out the house but I wouldn’t want to do that every week or month, I recon an ICE including fuel stop would have been 2 hours less through a combination of no charging and more flexibility in routes. And I think that’s Munters point. It’s not typical but if you’re in the group who sometimes has to do it, it’s a PITA
jamoor said:
Wasn’t there any non Tesla chargers?
Where? Client site, first visit, I’m not going to be a needy supplier asking if they have a charger before they’ve offered me a coffee. Certainly no public charging within walking distance that I could see
Reading supercharger, it’s just dumped on what looks like public/office parking with zero facilities. I could have gone looking for others but I know Tesla ones are the quickest for me, at least they are until I have my CCS retro fit in Dec.. (booked in Oct, workshop appointments are current 2 months lead time meaning you’re lucky to now get one this year, we’re seeing heater failures again, the usual Dec rush on deliveries is around the corner, I can that 2 months being quick soon.
While I can see that stressful situations can still exist, they become less and less common.
Had a similar meeting with a client, checked it out beforehand and in the same street there was a public charger.
I often travel to the Netherlands and they are everywhere because the faster adoption of EVs.
Many business owners place charge points. It costs them about 1000-2000 EUR but can attract clients that might otherwise go somewhere else.
There are some regions in NL where it's impossible to find a hotel that DOESN'T have a charge point.
Had a similar meeting with a client, checked it out beforehand and in the same street there was a public charger.
I often travel to the Netherlands and they are everywhere because the faster adoption of EVs.
Many business owners place charge points. It costs them about 1000-2000 EUR but can attract clients that might otherwise go somewhere else.
There are some regions in NL where it's impossible to find a hotel that DOESN'T have a charge point.
ZesPak said:
Had a similar meeting with a client, checked it out beforehand and in the same street there was a public charger.
Let get real here, in which other aspect of life would you pay MORE for a product/service in return for more stress/less convenience?Clearly personal situations vary, for me I find the hassle of doing that once a month too much, once every 6 months maybe, but if your having to put up with such a faff every week for work it'll soon get very tedious very quickly!
ZesPak said:
While I can see that stressful situations can still exist, they become less and less common.
Had a similar meeting with a client, checked it out beforehand and in the same street there was a public charger.
I often travel to the Netherlands and they are everywhere because the faster adoption of EVs.
Many business owners place charge points. It costs them about 1000-2000 EUR but can attract clients that might otherwise go somewhere else.
There are some regions in NL where it's impossible to find a hotel that DOESN'T have a charge point.
Do they have a law saying one more has to be installed for every X number of cars sold in the area?Had a similar meeting with a client, checked it out beforehand and in the same street there was a public charger.
I often travel to the Netherlands and they are everywhere because the faster adoption of EVs.
Many business owners place charge points. It costs them about 1000-2000 EUR but can attract clients that might otherwise go somewhere else.
There are some regions in NL where it's impossible to find a hotel that DOESN'T have a charge point.
As one charger on a street, or one charger at a hotel may be ok today...
gangzoom said:
Heres Johnny said:
Of course I managed it, 6AM to 7:30PM out the house but I wouldn’t want to do that every week or month, I recon an ICE including fuel stop would have been 2 hours less through a combination of no charging and more flexibility in routes. And I think that’s Munters point. It’s not typical but if you’re in the group who sometimes has to do it, it’s a PITA
The Lexus will do 380 miles at lane 3 Mway speeds and still have over 100 miles of range in reserve regardless of rain/wind/cold.One of us does that kind of trip once a couple of months, taking the combustion car which including these trips averages 5k a year. Total mileage per year means little in regards to long work trips.
Add in the need to pick up sprogglings by 6pm latest, which we've had to do post long work day trip when one of us was away at the same time. Our £70k+ EV is sometimes as useful as a door stop!!
Yet Evglanicals will tell you range doesnt matter, every EV will hit their rated range with no issues, and everyone should get EVs without a second thought, its utter rubbish.
For the cost, the additional hassle of owning an EV is sometimes just not needed. I feel sorry for Model 3 owners who have bought these cars as bussiness tools, if you're hammering up the Mways for time sensitive trips for your bread and butter, EV ownership is painful, a self charging hybrid from Toyota/Lexus will give diesel efficiency without the guilt of using tractor fuel.
Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 19th November 03:49
Those of us in the middle can see the benefits of EVs and can see the pitfalls and can see at what point they could fit into our lives. Those of us with driveways, other cars, pretty fixed journeys and sufficient income are right on the cusp of EVs being a genuine and credible option with the subsidies pushing us over the line. There are big family wagons, mid sized saloons for coat hanger salesmen and hatchbacks for local pottering, with loads more set to appear in the next few years while at the same time the used market fills out with them and the road network constinues to expand its facilities for them.
It seems fairly logical that within a few years almost everyone in the lifestyle zone will have at least one EV as they will have at least one car that will simply be easier and cheaper to run as an EV.
For us it is the local runabout. Our current one is now in its tenth year. It only has 30k on the clock and the interior still looks like new. There isn’t an eco argument in existence that can argue it would be better to replace it now. It has plenty of life left in it in theory but it’s obsolescence is being brought forward by it being a diesel and the need for it to be available to do runs into central London. Even then it is obviously still cheaper to pay the tax than to buy a replacement. It’ll probably get swapped for an i3 or MINI at the point that my concerns over the turbos packing in coincide with the wife’s demands for something new and they both meet my unrelenting hatred for the absolutely horrible van engine, it’s filthy smell and it’s truly dispiriting drive.
For my cars? Well they tend to just be for fun and relaxation. They will occasionally do daily miles that would require finding a charger and there is absolutely no way that I have any interest in paying money to buy in inconvenience or the inefficiency of having a massive battery pack just sitting there only being required once in a while. I have no personal need for the latest gadgets, I certainly haven’t ever been on trend but I am never going to spend money to make some object less usable, less efficient, less convenient.
Long term our logical solution is arguably a brace of EV hatchbacks to do all the local day to day pottering and to be driven slowly but steadily into the ground.
Good luck to the pioneers but most people will only trade so much convenience for kudos and judging by the number of Tesla’s on the M40 being driven like pensioners in an MGB it does give the impression that a lot of owners are buying in a bucket load of inconveniences.
It appears to me that chargers are growing in number, there’s even a couple on the car park in a nearby small Norfolk town.
But even though, as has been said, range is fine for many, there are still many who make regular long trips that will be inconvenient in an EV.
I’m one of those and as far as I can see the EV we have ordered will just be a second car to operate well within its range and charge at home. For me and others then, price becomes more important. I’d be reluctant to spend £40/50k on a second car that has no particular attributes other than being eco friendly.
But even though, as has been said, range is fine for many, there are still many who make regular long trips that will be inconvenient in an EV.
I’m one of those and as far as I can see the EV we have ordered will just be a second car to operate well within its range and charge at home. For me and others then, price becomes more important. I’d be reluctant to spend £40/50k on a second car that has no particular attributes other than being eco friendly.
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What I'm trying to work out: How do you know that the 2025 promise is the real one, and all previous promises were just the smoke an mirrors needed to secure finance to get that 2025 ultimate victory? How do you know that the 2025 promise isn't just a another smoke and mirrors steppingstone to Musk's real plan, which is to use SpaceX and paint a picture of his face on the moon?
sambucket said:
" plan has been set in stone for years and Tesla are bang on track"
If that really is the case, then their plan was to deliver late, deliver less and break virtually every promise for over a decade? That's a plan so cunning that I'm surprised they haven't made Rowan Atkinson their VP of communications!What I'm trying to work out: How do you know that the 2025 promise is the real one, and all previous promises were just the smoke an mirrors needed to secure finance to get that 2025 ultimate victory? How do you know that the 2025 promise isn't just a another smoke and mirrors steppingstone to Musk's real plan, which is to use SpaceX and paint a picture of his face on the moon?
REALIST123 said:
It appears to me that chargers are growing in number, there’s even a couple on the car park in a nearby small Norfolk town.
But even though, as has been said, range is fine for many, there are still many who make regular long trips that will be inconvenient in an EV.
I’m one of those and as far as I can see the EV we have ordered will just be a second car to operate well within its range and charge at home. For me and others then, price becomes more important. I’d be reluctant to spend £40/50k on a second car that has no particular attributes other than being eco friendly.
And arguably it’s that little local runabout that is eco friendly. It has used fewer resources to build, isn’t lugging around a massive battery pack on the off chance that you might want to randomly nip to Mogadishu, is not delivering as much wear and tear to the road network, chewing up tyres and tarmac with its unnecessary bulk and you are removing air and noise pollution from the highest population density areas and where it matters most. But even though, as has been said, range is fine for many, there are still many who make regular long trips that will be inconvenient in an EV.
I’m one of those and as far as I can see the EV we have ordered will just be a second car to operate well within its range and charge at home. For me and others then, price becomes more important. I’d be reluctant to spend £40/50k on a second car that has no particular attributes other than being eco friendly.
Cruising the streets in a two tonne, regional head of coathanger sales saloon is never going to hit any sane radar as an ecological solution.
Limited value in discussing edge cases on in investment thread. It's the 95% that matter. And for the 95% who drive < 30 miles a day, an AWD Tesla replaces ICE without compromise. Yes there are edge cases for whom EVs don't work at all. But on the other end of the scale there are edge cases where EVs work much better. For instance, those who live in rural scotland without easy access to a reliable petrol station.
yes Musk makes and breaks a lot of promises. On balance, the achievements more than make up for it. As evidenced by top notch satisfaction scores in surveys. You can easily list 100 promises that Musk has broken, but ultimately if he continues to grow sales and top satisfaction tables, then how much does it really matter? (to investors)
VW etc break promises too. Oliver Schmidt went to jail for 7 years for his broken promises. Would you still buy VAG?
Some Gump said:
If that really is the case, then their plan was to deliver late, deliver less and break virtually every promise for over a decade? That's a plan so cunning that I'm surprised they haven't made Rowan Atkinson their VP of communications!
The plan seems to be working so far. Annual growth like that never seen before in the auto industry. yes Musk makes and breaks a lot of promises. On balance, the achievements more than make up for it. As evidenced by top notch satisfaction scores in surveys. You can easily list 100 promises that Musk has broken, but ultimately if he continues to grow sales and top satisfaction tables, then how much does it really matter? (to investors)
VW etc break promises too. Oliver Schmidt went to jail for 7 years for his broken promises. Would you still buy VAG?
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 19th November 10:50
Sambucket said:
Limited value in discussing edge cases on in investment thread. It's the 95% that matter. And for the 95% who drive < 30 miles a day, an AWD Tesla replaces ICE without compromise. Yes there are edge cases for whom EVs don't work at all. But on the other end of the scale there are edge cases where EVs work much better. For instance, those who live in rural scotland without easy access to a reliable petrol station.
Any AWD Tesla is too big and way, way too expensive for my needs.It's true that, in it's current specification, it would work 99.5% of the time.
My situation is pretty good for EV ownership.
I already use an EV to get to work (train) so don't use the car every day
I do 5,000 miles a year in my Golf - that's about 420 miles a month - 2 or 3 charges
I have a driveway so can charge at home
Most of my journeys are pretty short - a 100-mile round trip is a long one for me
BUT
A few times a year I visit friends where there is no off-street parking or charging points, and I don't want to have to beg for other people's electricity or park a significant away and have to take alternative transport to get to my destination
I don't want to have to stop-en route for half an hour while my car charges.
The Golf has a 400-odd mile range, so I don't need to fill up en route. A once a month visit to a petrol station is no bother.
I don't drink coffee like all EV owners seem to. I dread to think of how much is spent by EV owners at Costa/Starbucks etc
An EV that is equivalent to the Golf has a significantly higher purchase price. The cheapest Tesla Model 3 is £9k more than I paid for the Golf. That's about 60,000 miles worth of fuel. That will take me 12 years to recoup.
An AWD Model 3 starts at £47k - that's £20k more than my Golf, or 130,000 miles of fuel.
Add in the additional inconvenience, and it's not yet compelling and why I plan to keep the Golf for a good few years yet and then move to EV.
Sambucket said:
Limited value in discussing edge cases on in investment thread. It's the 95% that matter. And for the 95% an AWD Tesla replaces ICE without compromise. Yes there are edge cases for whom EVs don't work at all. But on the other end of the scale there are edge cases where EVs work much better. For instance, those who live in rural scotland without easy access to a reliable petrol station.
yes Musk makes and breaks a lot of promises. So what? It's annoying for investors sure, but on balance, the achievements more than make up for it. As evidenced by top notch satisfaction scores in surveys.
All car manufacturers are shady as f
k.Y Musk is positively angelic compared to most auto CEOs. Let he who is without sin etc....
It’s not really an edge case when 95% of your 95% of cases can’t spend £40k on a car Some Gump said:
If that really is the case, then their plan was to deliver late, deliver less and break virtually every promise for over a decade? That's a plan so cunning that I'm surprised they haven't made Rowan Atkinson their VP of communications!
The plan seems to be working so far. Annual growth like that never seen before in the auto industry. yes Musk makes and breaks a lot of promises. So what? It's annoying for investors sure, but on balance, the achievements more than make up for it. As evidenced by top notch satisfaction scores in surveys.
All car manufacturers are shady as f
k.Y Musk is positively angelic compared to most auto CEOs. Let he who is without sin etc....Edited by Sambucket on Tuesday 19th November 10:29
The edge case today is very much EV. What’s up for debate is how long it will take for EVs to stop being the edge case.
When you look at charging, I’ve never seen it as a hurdle. Most people don’t drive all that far in a day and at least half can charge at home. Plus, electricity exists wherever there are humans with money to buy a car and the number of charge points is only going to increase.
If we look at consumer demand then I don’t really see this as an issue. Very significant numbers of consumers recognise that EVs are here and only going to grow and they will make the change over the coming decade.
It just boils down to price. The biggest selling car in the UK is a £12k Fiesta. A small, efficient vehicle that has zero usage restrictions for anyone. The average price of a new car in the UK is around £15k.
The average price of an EV is around £30k at the moment. That and that alone is what inhibits the mass adoption of EVs.
2020 is the year that we will start to see usable EVs below £25k and it won’t be long until we see sun £20k usable EVs and that will be the tipping point and when EVs cease to be the edge case and the better product for approaching 50% of the population.
EVs with current battery tech can never be the 100% viable solution but I think we can all see that they have the potential to be 30-60% of the cars on the road within a decade and within that time frame will be the public realisation that they can’t be 100% and that while batteries are so inefficient, there will be ICE powered cars that are environmentally and cost superior.
gangzoom said:
Let get real here, in which other aspect of life would you pay MORE for a product/service in return for more stress/less convenience?
Clearly personal situations vary, for me I find the hassle of doing that once a month too much, once every 6 months maybe, but if your having to put up with such a faff every week for work it'll soon get very tedious very quickly!
I was pointing out that for me it hasn't been a hassle, the one time I needed one (left for vacation that evening so wanted it fully charged) it was right there. I had to go far less out of my way than I have ever had to for a petrol station. I've done over 25000km with one SuC stop in total. Oh and pay more? Do we have to do the maths again? For the price of a Model 3 you'd be lucky to get 200hp and some options in an A4. That's excluding taxes and running costs. Clearly personal situations vary, for me I find the hassle of doing that once a month too much, once every 6 months maybe, but if your having to put up with such a faff every week for work it'll soon get very tedious very quickly!
hyphen said:
Do they have a law saying one more has to be installed for every X number of cars sold in the area?
As one charger on a street, or one charger at a hotel may be ok today...
I agree, butAs one charger on a street, or one charger at a hotel may be ok today...
- unlike petrol stations, you only need these on "special" occasions, maybe once a, month or less. So you need far from one for every ev
- these cost peanuts to install and maintain, at 40h/week in use the roi would be less than half a year. My local baker (who has a nice small parking in the town centre) has a double installed at about 1500 eur. He doesn't have to worry about it, small fee goes to the installation guys and the money is wired to his account every month (+100/month). He's going to install another one soon. So I have no doubt offer will follow demands.
LG9k said:
Any AWD Tesla is too big and way, way too expensive for my needs.
You probably shouldn't buy one then. No one is pretending current Teslas are suitable for any more than 5% of the population. It's a premium niche brand.
I am arguing that by end of 2020 the vast majority of drivers, would be happy with a (like for like) EV if they were foriced to switch at gun point. For most people this would be something like a 15k 68 plate zoe.
Obviously if you drive for work etc, or drive off road, it's very different. But those are edge cases. Most people drive 10 miles a day. Almost all the time. Most people don't buy an SUV for the one time a year they need to drive through a field.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 19th November 11:45
Sambucket said:
DonkeyApple said:
The biggest selling car in the UK is a £12k Fiesta. ...The average price of a new car in the UK is around £15k.
It's like listening to boris johnson talking about the price of bread. Hows your hybrid forecast working out, by the way?
Conversely, your view flip flops with the share price of Tesla and often relies on completely ignoring the basic facts as to how the world really works.
Tesla price up and your bullish on EVs, price down and you’re highlighting the issues. It’s the penny share punter trap. It’s all about the price and the spending power of the consumer. And it has been from the start. Spending power obviously isn’t rising and subsidies have been needed to to help combat the price issue.
While we are on the cusp of change it still, today remains the fact that it is the EV that is the edge case.
DonkeyApple said:
Sambucket said:
DonkeyApple said:
The biggest selling car in the UK is a £12k Fiesta. ...The average price of a new car in the UK is around £15k.
It's like listening to boris johnson talking about the price of bread. Hows your hybrid forecast working out, by the way?
Conversely, your view flip flops with the share price of Tesla and often relies on completely ignoring the basic facts as to how the world really works.
Tesla price up and your bullish on EVs, price down and you’re highlighting the issues. It’s the penny share punter trap. It’s all about the price and the spending power of the consumer. And it has been from the start. Spending power obviously isn’t rising and subsidies have been needed to to help combat the price issue.
While we are on the cusp of change it still, today remains the fact that it is the EV that is the edge case.
Re Tesla I'm bullish in the sense I think they will hit long term unit guidance and will survive in current form. But not bullish enough to value the shares over 250 hence why I don't currently own any.
Which basic facts am I ignoring? I'm bullish on EVs yes. I think for most people, the tipping point for like for like total ownership cost (very few if any examples of like for like on the market) sometime near end of 2020. EV is already cheaper for high performance vehicles. Every month that passes the scale tips towards the cheaper end.
I know you hate subsidies, that's your problem. I hope for consistency you have never bought a diesel.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 19th November 12:29
DonkeyApple said:
It just boils down to price. The biggest selling car in the UK is a £12k Fiesta. A small, efficient vehicle that has zero usage restrictions for anyone. The average price of a new car in the UK is around £15k.
The average price of an EV is around £30k at the moment. That and that alone is what inhibits the mass adoption of EVs.
Analysis conducted by the automotive data company shows that the average amount of money customers pay for a new car rose from £24,383 in February 2008 to £33,559 in February 2018.The average price of an EV is around £30k at the moment. That and that alone is what inhibits the mass adoption of EVs.
http://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/average-new...
which is inline with the avg price in the EU
The subsidies is an interesting one though.
These come in many forms. Here in Belgium, diesels have been taxed way less in the past decades, so the majority of the cars, even privately owned, regardless of miles /year are diesels.
In almost all countries, petrol and diesel are taxed to an extend. I think here about 55% of the pump price is actually taxes. If the government decides to take that down, the calculation for an ev becomes harder. Or other way around, if they started taxing electricity heavier...
Point is that, yes, EVs are interesting financially because of tax incentives. But that does mean they are interesting financially. For now, the government likes them and dislikes diesel, and that's only getting worse. So unless you want to pay more to own a 2L diesel, you're pretty much stuck with what the government tells you to get.
These come in many forms. Here in Belgium, diesels have been taxed way less in the past decades, so the majority of the cars, even privately owned, regardless of miles /year are diesels.
In almost all countries, petrol and diesel are taxed to an extend. I think here about 55% of the pump price is actually taxes. If the government decides to take that down, the calculation for an ev becomes harder. Or other way around, if they started taxing electricity heavier...
Point is that, yes, EVs are interesting financially because of tax incentives. But that does mean they are interesting financially. For now, the government likes them and dislikes diesel, and that's only getting worse. So unless you want to pay more to own a 2L diesel, you're pretty much stuck with what the government tells you to get.
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