Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Digga]

Steve "Big Short" Eismann has just announced he is short Tesla:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-27/steve-bi...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27...

Obviously, people like Eismann are short all sorts of things and are, by no means infalible or 100% accurate. However, publicly coming out to announce such a position is, very often, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Eismann said:

"Elon Musk is a very, very smart man but there are a lot of smart people in this world and you’ve got to execute. He’s got execution problems..."

"He's nowhere in autonomous driving, as far as I can tell, and big competition is coming in his space next year."

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

"He's got execution problems," Eisman says.



Volume aside, the jointly owned gigafactory #1 claims to produce the cheapest EV battery in the world. GM , VW etc are reporting prices at 120 - 150 kwh whilst tesla is claiming sub 100.

ETA Musk hopes to integrate the entire car manufacturing process within the gigafactories (#1 is already the largest factory in the world by footprint) and copy and paste the working model around the world.

Edited by zubzob on Friday 27th July 15:31

Musk is very good at talking. He wants to put humans on Mars within how long? A hyperlink to get you to the airport in 3 minutes. Simply question. Where is the 10B to build the factory coming from?

[Digga]

zubzob said:

ETA Musk hopes to integrate the entire car manufacturing process within the gigafactories (#1 is already the largest factory in the world by footprint) and copy and paste the working model around the world.

Not all business models can be copy-and-pasted globally.

As for not delivering, well that's what the markets will judge. For him though, the bigger issue is the advent of serious, mainstream EV competition. All the volume manufacturers are about to pile in.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

It's not all talk though, is it.

Tesla are literally building the world's largest factories. Panasonic are increasing it's investment in the Gigafctory. It's not some mad photo sharing app.

And Space X are literally testing the a rocket THIS YEAR designed to go to Mars.

Musk welcomes and encourages EV competition from major competition. It's in the business plan. He actively encourages car manufacturers to increase their investment in EV. It's not a bad thing for Tesla for EV adoption to accelerate.

What you'll find is any Bullish person wants to ignore all financial metrics and focus on the utopia. So now we know the Germans are coming with their 100B cash pile, and of course they will make the tech better (they have the money and the smarts) Musk welcomes them. They will roll over him like an EV Panzer.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Just out of interest I'm wondering if any Tesla bears on here, were ever bearish on any FAANG stocks, at any time in history? And do you feel they are overvalued now?

explain how Tesla has a monopoly. VAG will make a better product and take the mass market.

They had a head start. Facebook, which i hate by the way but it behaves like a monopoly, love google, love apple, don't like amazon at 250PE. Way over valued but I'm not stupid enough to short it. Amazon is a ponzi scheme for idiots(the stock i mean)

Ive liked Netflix since it was 150-said so on these boards many times.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

explain how Tesla has a monopoly. VAG will make a better product and take the mass market.

They had a head start. Facebook, which i hate by the way but it behaves like a monopoly, love google, love apple, don't like amazon at 250PE. Way over valued but I'm not stupid enough to short it. Amazon is a ponzi scheme for idiots(the stock i mean)

Ive liked Netflix since it was 150-said so on these boards many times.

One of my biggest mistakes was selling a long term stake in Amazon a few years back. What do you think of AWS, is it a ponzi scheme?

I said the stock price is a ponzi scheme. Is AWS ever and i mean ever going to earn 50B ala apple? i say nope.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

I said the stock price is a ponzi scheme. Is AWS ever and i mean ever going to earn 50B ala apple? i say nope.

Of course, at current rates of growth, probably within five years.

Earnings of 50B. What would say the revenues will be to support that?

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

Earnings of 50B. What would say the revenues will be to support that?

Well 2018 AWS revenue is expected to be about 25 billion. so 5 years growth at 50% (crazy i know that but thats the valuation for you...) that gives us after 5 yeras

284 revenue
71 earnings at 25% margin.

Edited by zubzob on Friday 27th July 16:27

oh, right, silly me 284B based on compounded 50% growth. Of cause it's logical. I'm surprised Bezos hasn't spun AWL off and 'released' it's value. One small issue. The total global market isn't anything even close to that and they have 30% market share. Big newbie mistake. extrapolate beyond the global consumption.

The real question which needs a response is, at 1 trillion (lol) where is material further value coming from? You are suggesting Amazon will earn 70B in 5 years. OK i'll come back to this post

[Burwood]

i'm not going to debate someone who thinks they will turn over 300B and return a 25% margin in 5 years . Good luck with that. The smart money has already been made. you need a new dot com ponzi

[Burwood]

anyway, where were we. That's right. Tesla down again today. Roll on Wednesday.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

i'm not going to debate someone who thinks they will turn over 300B and return a 25% margin in 5 years . Good luck with that. The smart money has already been made. you need a new dot com ponzi

Okay fair enough. I was only answering your questions to be fair. I wasn't volunteering this stuff unprompted.

It's not that I 'think' anything. I only stated at current levels of growth, this will happen.

I'm guessing you don't work in cloud computing.

No, I have my feet firmly on the ground
I don't need to work in cloud tech to know the market is not going to be a 1T in revenues type market and no single player will have anything like 300B in revs. Because where there are big margins others flock. I'm not saying AWS will be toppled but they will get aggressive and real competition which erodes margins. I have seen it before over 20 years experience. Industry matters not.

[Burwood]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

I don't need to work in cloud tech to know the market is not going to be a 1T in revenues type market ....

Ok my last post on this circle jerk thread as I don't feel too welcome.... but just wanted to say, I hope the irony is not lost on you, that you are dismissing the actual financials, and choosing to trust your instincts on this one!

AWS growth smashed growth estimates this quarter. Doesn't seem like anything is slowing down.

I think this might be a generational thing.

Ok I'm gone. x

what irony-you need to read the posts. And where is AWL making 300B in revenue? I don't care if they generate 20b in revs. That does not = 300B. I'll repeat myself. the market isn't big enough to ever get there. Ever, never never. Get my sentiment. Actually the fact. Same issue for Amazon 'other'. the consumer tat market isn't big enough to ever justify 1T valuation. But if you think AMZN is cheap)lol) then fill ya boots

New

[Burwood]

oh, so you don't believe anything contained in your posts? Heres a nice fact. Long Apple since $8. Cash machines are good. The real problem today is so many 'investors' want to get rich in a week. The long game always wins out unless you are very very lucky. Then again, that luck will only make you gamble even more and you'll lose. Im not saying you of course. And you are certainly welcome on this thread.

[Burwood]

have a bunch of posts been removed? If so, what a load of st-off topic at a guess

[RumbleOfThunder]

zubzob said:

Burwood said:

have a bunch of posts been removed? If so, what a load of st-off topic at a guess

My bad, i'm super off the charts ADHD and delete posts half the time....

Ok I'm really off now. Dinner time!

There's really no need to delete posts because of a small disagreement mate. It's only the internet after all.

[RobDickinson]

Burwood said:

explain how Tesla has a monopoly. VAG will make a better product and take the mass market.
.

Another fking huge Rolf.

The etron won't be in customer hands until at least next year and it looks like it sucks ass compared to a 2012 Era Tesla

[Burwood]

RobDickinson said:

Burwood said:

explain how Tesla has a monopoly. VAG will make a better product and take the mass market.
.

Another fking huge Rolf.

The etron won't be in customer hands until at least next year and it looks like it sucks ass compared to a 2012 Era Tesla

So you’re safe for a year. Tick tock. My case isn’t about the competition. Tesla has spend all the cash and no one wants to lend them anymore.

If they miss on Wednesday or Musk has another brain fart, with other infinity PE stocks getting butchered you could see Tesla lose 100 bucks after hours.

[jamoor]

RobDickinson said:

Burwood said:

explain how Tesla has a monopoly. VAG will make a better product and take the mass market.
.

Another fking huge Rolf.

The etron won't be in customer hands until at least next year and it looks like it sucks ass compared to a 2012 Era Tesla

Tesla are also ahead in terms of software, battery manufacturing and charging network.

Vag are already behind and playing catch up.

[RobDickinson]

Burwood said:

So you’re safe for a year.

They are minimum 6 years behind, they dont have a charging network, their batteries are poor and limited, worse than a 2012 model S.
And as above they dont even understand the integration and electronics side. They just buy in from bosch etc.

Can they catch up, will they? Probably but it'll take 5+ years minimum to catch where tesla was a few years ago. tesla is not a static target.

[RobDickinson]

Of course as tesla cant ever make a profit it wont be a problem