Tipping point towards EVs is around 5 years
Discussion
Too Drunk to Funk said:
The tipping point for EVs will be when more than 0.5% of the population think they are a good idea.
You EV guys are very good at predicting the future while ignoring the present.
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.You EV guys are very good at predicting the future while ignoring the present.
Edited by Too Drunk to Funk on Saturday 25th November 08:40
Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
REALIST123 said:
All due respect, but it's quite ironic that you should be implying ignorance amongst others.
There are still millions who don't live in and never drive in Cities.
There are many EVs that are significantly more expensive to run than equivalently sized ICE cars. We don't all want to run around in tiny boxes.
Feel free to buy whatever you like. I'll stick with my choice until there's a competitive EV for me. There isn't yet.
The point I made was that many people would have saved going for an EV, but never out of ignorance. You may find ICE cars being precluded from many aspects of everyday driving as time rolls on. Cities like Pars and Berlin have put timescales on ICE elimination in `all` of the cities and even the whole countries. Once the tipping point comes authorities will clamp down on ICE vehicles gradually then hard. Stick with dinosaur technology, be my guest, but you will pay for it out of your own pocket. As EVs increase in volume, simple things like petrol stations will be rare and maybe even the skilled labour to fix an ICE car - try getting someone to fix a steam engine these days. Owning an ICE car will be an inconvenience as was an EV 10 years ago.There are still millions who don't live in and never drive in Cities.
There are many EVs that are significantly more expensive to run than equivalently sized ICE cars. We don't all want to run around in tiny boxes.
Feel free to buy whatever you like. I'll stick with my choice until there's a competitive EV for me. There isn't yet.
There are countless example of technology disruption. A recent one is the introduction of the combi boiler. In millions of homes large inefficient cast-iron boilers and large cylinders disappeared quite quickly, once the tipping point came.
Edited by RayTay on Sunday 26th November 12:45
JPJPJP said:
I don’t think EV will be the natural choice for every car buyer in the uk in 5 years,
Understand what the tipping point is. In 10 years time you may find that no 100% ICE vehicle will be for sale. Volvo announced they will not be selling any. Once EVs drop in price, and they will like colour TVs did, it will be a landslide. All points that way.Yipper said:
EVs are heavily subsidised. Thousands and thousands of Pounds per vehicle. The EV 105% growth is artificially inflated.
Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
Oil is heavily subsidised. To the point we pay a fortune for armed forces to guarantee its supply. Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
RayTay said:
Yipper said:
EVs are heavily subsidised. Thousands and thousands of Pounds per vehicle. The EV 105% growth is artificially inflated.
Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
Oil is heavily subsidised. To the point we pay a fortune for armed forces to guarantee its supply. Almost everywhere subsidies or tax-breaks for EVs have been removed, sales collapse overnight. For example, Tesla sales in Denmark plunged -60% in H1 2017 when subsidies / tax-breaks stopped.
EarlOfHazard said:
One the EV age really starts, and then petrol stations start closing due to lack of trade, I anticipate the transition will be rather swift.
That is what Tony Seba says in the video in the first post of this thread. I am sure many who comment here never looked at the vid. Hybrids and full EVs are everywhere in London with just about every Uber taxi being a Prius. From Jan all new back London cabs have to be at least a hybrid. TfL insist all new buses are at least hybrids. So far no auto maker has made a decent range-extender engine with many in development. Mazda are developing a rotary for hybrid duty - the perfect engine in size, weight and smoothness for that duty (they are part time engines). Many of these engines may only be short lived as full EVs take over.
Edited by RayTay on Monday 27th November 11:04
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
There is also the cost of the NHS needlessly treating respiratory diseases and complaints - not taking into account the personal misery of the victims. That has run into trillions. All because of oil burning.Edited by RayTay on Monday 27th November 10:59
Yipper said:
Britain has spent about $100m directly protecting oil, gas and petrol rights since the 1970s... Britain has received roughly $1 trillion in taxes from oil, petrol and gas since the 1970s.
You made all that up. £100m for the parts of the navy ensuring oil supply, the troops in the Iraq wars? Please! The renovation of London Bridge station was far more than that. Then the previous costs of having troops and advisers in Oman, etc, etc. All in all since oil became important to the economy the UK has spent trillions on ensuring its supply. You appear to have an agenda. An astroturfer?
Yipper said:
Here's what happens when you remove free subsidies from EVs. Underlying real demand is weak.
A massive spike in sales like in Denmark the year before an enormous discount is removed is hardly surprising. Similar in Norway. You should look at what happened in Singapore. It doesn't prove anything other than local market conditions where taxation is really high can make a difference.If anybody spends 135k on a tesla MS P100D only because they get £5k off from the government needs their head seeing to.
Tesla still sell pretty much all the cars they CAN make.
RayTay said:
nderstand what the tipping point is. In 10 years time you may find that no 100% ICE vehicle will be for sale. Volvo announced they will not be selling any. Once EVs drop in price, and they will like colour TVs did, it will be a landslide. All points that way.
Can we not deal in facts rather than speculation? Wasn't that long ago people thought The Segway was going to take over the world. I'm a life long petrol head and change my vehicles every couple of years just because something else takes my fancy. I recently bought an I8 and instantly realised just how useable it really is (compared to my usual old classics etc)
Just sold my Defender and also my Caterham. The lure of a big V8 has gone for good and I'm loving the I8 for what it is and realised I wasn't using the Caterham much anymore.
I've moved on and other will too.
Just sold my Defender and also my Caterham. The lure of a big V8 has gone for good and I'm loving the I8 for what it is and realised I wasn't using the Caterham much anymore.
I've moved on and other will too.
Too Drunk to Funk said:
RayTay said:
nderstand what the tipping point is. In 10 years time you may find that no 100% ICE vehicle will be for sale. Volvo announced they will not be selling any. Once EVs drop in price, and they will like colour TVs did, it will be a landslide. All points that way.
Can we not deal in facts rather than speculation? Wasn't that long ago people thought The Segway was going to take over the world. Shell putting a few more bob into the charging infrastructure
https://www.ft.com/content/9e879ee6-d121-11e7-b781...
https://www.ft.com/content/9e879ee6-d121-11e7-b781...
culminator said:
I'm a life long petrol head and change my vehicles every couple of years just because something else takes my fancy. I recently bought an I8 and instantly realised just how useable it really is (compared to my usual old classics etc)
Just sold my Defender and also my Caterham. The lure of a big V8 has gone for good and I'm loving the I8 for what it is and realised I wasn't using the Caterham much anymore.
I've moved on and other will too.
That's fine for you. A £100k 2 seater is no use to me or many I suspect. Just sold my Defender and also my Caterham. The lure of a big V8 has gone for good and I'm loving the I8 for what it is and realised I wasn't using the Caterham much anymore.
I've moved on and other will too.
To be honest I don't know what all the argument's about. EVs will take over once the available vehicles suit most purposes and are affordable. Why wouldn't they?
It's just we're not there yet.
RayTay said:
here is also the cost of the NHS needlessly treating respiratory diseases and complaints - not taking into account the personal misery of the victims. That has run into trillions. All because of oil burning.
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 27th November 10:59
Not really. Studies show that the amount of harmful air pollutants from tyres and brakes is about the same as from exhausts. Plus it's not as easily dissipated.
The EV isn't the answer there. Maybe they should start to ban or seriously limit the number of vehicles in cities?
REALIST123 said:
...Studies show that the amount of harmful air pollutants from tyres and brakes is about the same as from exhausts. Plus it's not as easily dissipated.
I must say, where there is slow moving traffic in city centres, I would find that difficult to believe. But happy to be proved wrong if there is some good information on this.
REALIST123 said:
Not really. Studies show that the amount of harmful air pollutants from tyres and brakes is about the same as from exhausts. Plus it's not as easily dissipated.
Updated to reflect that it is more complex and for 2 cars of the same weight it will likely be similar between ICE and EV. With virtually zero pollution from braking on EV? so Like for like on tyres and brakes, but with no other car emissions from the EV.
Update on 12 May 2017:
Several readers of E&T have questioned Roy Harrison’s comments, based on the fact that they do not appear to take into account the use by electric vehicles of regenerative braking. Professor Harrison responds:
“I am pleased to set the record straight on this issue. I made it clear when talking to E&T that I was basing my comments on a paper by VRJH Timmers and PAJ Achten, published recently in the journal Atmospheric Environment, ‘Non-exhaust PM emissions from electric vehicles’. Timmers and Achten report the weight of a number of electric vehicles in comparison with their internal combustion engine equivalent. In all cases, the weight of the electric vehicle was greater, the range being from 14.6 per cent to 28.7 per cent heavier. Non-exhaust emissions from road vehicles arise from brake wear, tyre and road surface wear, and resuspension of road surface dusts. All are in general terms enhanced by increased vehicle weight. Timmers and Achten acknowledge the benefits of regenerative brakes on electric vehicles and made a conservative estimate of zero brake-wear emissions for electric vehicles. Hence, their claim that electric vehicle particulate matter emissions are comparable to those of conventional vehicles was based upon the greater tyre and road surface wear, and resuspension associated with a greater vehicle weight. Some electric vehicles are lighter than their internal combustion engine counterparts; consequently the issue is likely to be considerably more complex than suggested by this research.”
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