Tesla model 3 - realistic times for availability in UK
Discussion
JPJPJP said:
Update on Twitter suggests cars will be in UK showrooms this month, available for test drives by the end of the year and delivering from June 19
https://twitter.com/TeslaInTheUK/status/1028038293...
fingers crossed. i'd love to get mine in June 19, though I would need to find a home for the Scirocco R for 9 months but I wouldnt care in the slightest.https://twitter.com/TeslaInTheUK/status/1028038293...
Toaster said:
Just a thought but if there is a proliferation of Model 3’s what about the top end models will their value bomb in the same way as other large saloons eg 7 Series BMW’s ?
I was pondering this question yesterday on my way to nursery, and thinking how much more cramped and less comfy a smaller Model 3 would be for family duties compared to our current X with its massive front windscreen, powered doors, all the extra space. We have to wait and see, but one of the reason why large saloons drop their value is running costs, our X is now coming up to 1 year old (11 months) and I've done just under 13k miles.
Excluding deprecation the running costs looks like this:
Fule = 4768 kWh, some of this was 'free' but there is about 10% charging loss so will count all of it costing my 7.6p per kWh which gives £362.
Tyres = over 5mm tread left on all 4 corners at current rate of wear should be good for another 20-30k.
Servicing = £0, there is nothing to service.
Road tax = £0, even though it does attract £310 'luxury car tax" mine was an insurance replacement so I was back paid this for 5 years.
Insurance = £450 fully comp, protected no claims.
So including insurance my total out of pocket expense for running a 6 seater, 2.5 ton, sub 5 second to 60 SUV for 11 months and 13K is £812!!!
Ofcourse there is deprecation, but our X will be in the family for a long long time so the cost of deprecation doesn't affect me. I cannot see running costs changing that much over the life time of the car.
Once the battery/motor warranty expires in 2025 I will look to replace, but by than the thing will have well over 110K miles, so if even I can get £10K for it, life time running costs including deprecation is going to be around 50p per mile which am happy with.
Coming back to the question of would I rather have a Model 3 or S/X if prices were equal. Actually even though am 100% sure a Model 3 is more run to throw around a B road and quicker, for day to day jobs like nursery picks up I would rather be in our X. It's a nice problem to have, but hopefully soon I'll be able to answer it for real when we get our 3 to go along side our X. I suspect the X will remain the main family hack, and as such I doubt deprecation will get worse with the existence of the 3.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 18th August 04:59
Looks like they're still having some build quality glitches getting through, a few cars reported to lose their rear bumper in heavy rain (!!), Something to do with weather shielding being broken and the bumper filling with water the weight pulls it off the car.
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/13/tesla-model-3-...
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/13/tesla-model-3-...
gangzoom said:
I was pondering this question yesterday on my way to nursery, and thinking how much more cramped and less comfy a smaller Model 3 would be for family duties compared to our current X with its massive front windscreen, powered doors, all the extra space.
We have to wait and see, but one of the reason why large saloons drop their value is running costs, our X is now coming up to 1 year old (11 months) and I've done just under 13k miles.
Excluding deprecation the running costs looks like this:
Fule = 4768 kWh, some of this was 'free' but there is about 10% charging loss so will count all of it costing my 7.6p per kWh which gives £362.
Tyres = over 5mm tread left on all 4 corners at current rate of wear should be good for another 20-30k.
Servicing = £0, there is nothing to service.
Road tax = £0, even though it does attract £310 'luxury car tax" mine was an insurance replacement so I was back paid this for 5 years.
Insurance = £450 fully comp, protected no claims.
So including insurance my total out of pocket expense for running a 6 seater, 2.5 ton, sub 5 second to 60 SUV for 11 months and 13K is £812!!!
Ofcourse there is deprecation, but our X will be in the family for a long long time so the cost of deprecation doesn't affect me. I cannot see running costs changing that much over the life time of the car.
Once the battery/motor warranty expires in 2025 I will look to replace, but by than the thing will have well over 110K miles, so if even I can get £10K for it, life time running costs including deprecation is going to be around 50p per mile which am happy with.
Coming back to the question of would I rather have a Model 3 or S/X if prices were equal. Actually even though am 100% sure a Model 3 is more run to throw around a B road and quicker, for day to day jobs like nursery picks up I would rather be in our X. It's a nice problem to have, but hopefully soon I'll be able to answer it for real when we get our 3 to go along side our X. I suspect the X will remain the main family hack, and as such I doubt deprecation will get worse with the existence of the 3.
While they are cheap to run I’d challenge a few of your costs.We have to wait and see, but one of the reason why large saloons drop their value is running costs, our X is now coming up to 1 year old (11 months) and I've done just under 13k miles.
Excluding deprecation the running costs looks like this:
Fule = 4768 kWh, some of this was 'free' but there is about 10% charging loss so will count all of it costing my 7.6p per kWh which gives £362.
Tyres = over 5mm tread left on all 4 corners at current rate of wear should be good for another 20-30k.
Servicing = £0, there is nothing to service.
Road tax = £0, even though it does attract £310 'luxury car tax" mine was an insurance replacement so I was back paid this for 5 years.
Insurance = £450 fully comp, protected no claims.
So including insurance my total out of pocket expense for running a 6 seater, 2.5 ton, sub 5 second to 60 SUV for 11 months and 13K is £812!!!
Ofcourse there is deprecation, but our X will be in the family for a long long time so the cost of deprecation doesn't affect me. I cannot see running costs changing that much over the life time of the car.
Once the battery/motor warranty expires in 2025 I will look to replace, but by than the thing will have well over 110K miles, so if even I can get £10K for it, life time running costs including deprecation is going to be around 50p per mile which am happy with.
Coming back to the question of would I rather have a Model 3 or S/X if prices were equal. Actually even though am 100% sure a Model 3 is more run to throw around a B road and quicker, for day to day jobs like nursery picks up I would rather be in our X. It's a nice problem to have, but hopefully soon I'll be able to answer it for real when we get our 3 to go along side our X. I suspect the X will remain the main family hack, and as such I doubt deprecation will get worse with the existence of the 3.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 18th August 04:59
tyres start with 7-8mm and you should change before the legal limit if yips value your family, I’d say they were half warn and at £800 a set, that’s £400 a year
No servicing, for life, is madness. You have a high grade hepa filter, that doesn’t have an infinite life, you have cooling ducts, fans and fluids, and inspection will clear out potential debris and possibly lubricate moving parts, fluids periodically getting changed. I’d bank on a minimum of alternate years at £600 Tesla pricing or £300 Indy.
Your full life costs don’t cover issues post warranty outside drivetrain either.
Realistically, before depreciation I think your costs are double, still very good and less than ICE just pay on fuel, but not quite that low.
Heres Johnny said:
gangzoom said:
I was pondering this question yesterday on my way to nursery, and thinking how much more cramped and less comfy a smaller Model 3 would be for family duties compared to our current X with its massive front windscreen, powered doors, all the extra space.
We have to wait and see, but one of the reason why large saloons drop their value is running costs, our X is now coming up to 1 year old (11 months) and I've done just under 13k miles.
Excluding deprecation the running costs looks like this:
Fule = 4768 kWh, some of this was 'free' but there is about 10% charging loss so will count all of it costing my 7.6p per kWh which gives £362.
Tyres = over 5mm tread left on all 4 corners at current rate of wear should be good for another 20-30k.
Servicing = £0, there is nothing to service.
Road tax = £0, even though it does attract £310 'luxury car tax" mine was an insurance replacement so I was back paid this for 5 years.
Insurance = £450 fully comp, protected no claims.
So including insurance my total out of pocket expense for running a 6 seater, 2.5 ton, sub 5 second to 60 SUV for 11 months and 13K is £812!!!
Ofcourse there is deprecation, but our X will be in the family for a long long time so the cost of deprecation doesn't affect me. I cannot see running costs changing that much over the life time of the car.
Once the battery/motor warranty expires in 2025 I will look to replace, but by than the thing will have well over 110K miles, so if even I can get £10K for it, life time running costs including deprecation is going to be around 50p per mile which am happy with.
Coming back to the question of would I rather have a Model 3 or S/X if prices were equal. Actually even though am 100% sure a Model 3 is more run to throw around a B road and quicker, for day to day jobs like nursery picks up I would rather be in our X. It's a nice problem to have, but hopefully soon I'll be able to answer it for real when we get our 3 to go along side our X. I suspect the X will remain the main family hack, and as such I doubt deprecation will get worse with the existence of the 3.
While they are cheap to run I’d challenge a few of your costs.We have to wait and see, but one of the reason why large saloons drop their value is running costs, our X is now coming up to 1 year old (11 months) and I've done just under 13k miles.
Excluding deprecation the running costs looks like this:
Fule = 4768 kWh, some of this was 'free' but there is about 10% charging loss so will count all of it costing my 7.6p per kWh which gives £362.
Tyres = over 5mm tread left on all 4 corners at current rate of wear should be good for another 20-30k.
Servicing = £0, there is nothing to service.
Road tax = £0, even though it does attract £310 'luxury car tax" mine was an insurance replacement so I was back paid this for 5 years.
Insurance = £450 fully comp, protected no claims.
So including insurance my total out of pocket expense for running a 6 seater, 2.5 ton, sub 5 second to 60 SUV for 11 months and 13K is £812!!!
Ofcourse there is deprecation, but our X will be in the family for a long long time so the cost of deprecation doesn't affect me. I cannot see running costs changing that much over the life time of the car.
Once the battery/motor warranty expires in 2025 I will look to replace, but by than the thing will have well over 110K miles, so if even I can get £10K for it, life time running costs including deprecation is going to be around 50p per mile which am happy with.
Coming back to the question of would I rather have a Model 3 or S/X if prices were equal. Actually even though am 100% sure a Model 3 is more run to throw around a B road and quicker, for day to day jobs like nursery picks up I would rather be in our X. It's a nice problem to have, but hopefully soon I'll be able to answer it for real when we get our 3 to go along side our X. I suspect the X will remain the main family hack, and as such I doubt deprecation will get worse with the existence of the 3.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 18th August 04:59
tyres start with 7-8mm and you should change before the legal limit if yips value your family, I’d say they were half warn and at £800 a set, that’s £400 a year
No servicing, for life, is madness. You have a high grade hepa filter, that doesn’t have an infinite life, you have cooling ducts, fans and fluids, and inspection will clear out potential debris and possibly lubricate moving parts, fluids periodically getting changed. I’d bank on a minimum of alternate years at £600 Tesla pricing or £300 Indy.
Your full life costs don’t cover issues post warranty outside drivetrain either.
Realistically, before depreciation I think your costs are double, still very good and less than ICE just pay on fuel, but not quite that low.
Interesting how depreciation is basically dismissed by a clearly optimistic calculation.
Basic price of a X around £80k. Let’s say typical OTR £90k, if it’s worth £10k after 110000 miles that gives a lot more than 50p per mile in depreciation.
But hey, it’s only a few days since he was going to swap it for a M3. Then he wasn’t. Then he was...........
Heres Johnny said:
No servicing, for life, is madness. You have a high grade hepa filter, that doesn’t have an infinite life, you have cooling ducts, fans and fluids, and inspection will clear out potential debris and possibly lubricate moving parts, fluids periodically getting changed. I’d bank on a minimum of alternate years at £600 Tesla pricing or £300 Indy.
Hepa filter is about £120, and I've fitted it my self in about 20 minutes. What exactly do you think needs doing for cooling ducts or fans aside from cleaning out any leaves etc? What parts do you think need lubricating? Apart from brake fluid every two years (which is a £80 job) what other fluids need doing? The only thing that needs Tesla to do is battery coolant every 4 years. Our X is fully paid for so interms of pure running costs on the road its staggering cheap, even less £ than our old diesel Civic.
REALIST123 said:
Interesting how depreciation is basically dismissed by a clearly optimistic calculation.
Basic price of a X around £80k. Let’s say typical OTR £90k, if it’s worth £10k after 110000 miles that gives a lot more than 50p per mile in depreciation.
But hey, it’s only a few days since he was going to swap it for a M3. Then he wasn’t. Then he was...........
Our X was £71k invoice price optioned up, currently though same spec car new is £91k due to Tesla putting prices up, but that's not how much we paid.Basic price of a X around £80k. Let’s say typical OTR £90k, if it’s worth £10k after 110000 miles that gives a lot more than 50p per mile in depreciation.
But hey, it’s only a few days since he was going to swap it for a M3. Then he wasn’t. Then he was...........
My wife has now been nearly convinced to go for the performance 3 which would have been the only car I would swap the X for purely because of the crazy 0-100mph time....But hopefully there is now a chance we can get that without selling the X, so happy days
. Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 18th August 08:56
Evanivitch said:
So why does Tesla charge £1800 for a 3 year servicing plan?
Why does Lexus want £400 for a oil change on our IS300H when a Toyota dealer can do the same job for half the cost?This is current Tesla service schedule, the warranty on the car is valid WITHOUT servicing.
Am quite happy to spend £££ on cars when needed, but £600 for essentially an 'inspection'?? I can think of better ways to spend the cash.
Not sure about Model 3 pricing but I suspect it'll be similar. End of the day its your money and spend it how you wish
.
gangzoom said:
Why does Lexus want £400 for a oil change on our IS300H when a Toyota dealer can do the same job for half the cost?
This is current Tesla service schedule, the warranty on the car is valid WITHOUT servicing.
Am quite happy to spend £££ on cars when needed, but £600 for essentially an 'inspection'?? I can think of better ways to spend the cash.
Not sure about Model 3 pricing but I suspect it'll be similar. End of the day its your money and spend it how you wish.
You obviously know best. No point discussing it with you.This is current Tesla service schedule, the warranty on the car is valid WITHOUT servicing.
Am quite happy to spend £££ on cars when needed, but £600 for essentially an 'inspection'?? I can think of better ways to spend the cash.
Not sure about Model 3 pricing but I suspect it'll be similar. End of the day its your money and spend it how you wish
.For the benefit of others:
Vehicle geometry doesn’t matter
All those cooling fans and ducts that open and close that maintain battery and motor condition and are beneath the car
Suspension parts that wear, bushes that wear (it’s a heavy old car) including air suspension where leaks can develop
Service updates that aren’t recalls or software that get done (you’d be surprised how often they occur)
Why bother going to a dentist as all they do is a checkup.
Why bother screening for colon cancer on 55 year olds or performing mammograms etc.
You’re a medical person, I thought you’d have a comprehension on these matters.
Heres Johnny said:
Why bother screening for colon cancer on 55 year olds or performing mammograms etc.
You’re a medical person, I thought you’d have a comprehension on these matters.
You haven't read up on all the health economic analysis that been done on national health screening versus QALY have you You’re a medical person, I thought you’d have a comprehension on these matters.
.Show me actual evidence a £600 Tesla 'inspection' does anything apart from put £600 into Tesla's bank account and I'll happly pay the service pack. Even at £2.3k the 4 year service pack is only 3% if what we paid for the car, but am not in the habit if wasting money for no reason.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 18th August 09:31
gangzoom said:
You haven't read up on all the health economic analysis that been done on national health screening versus QALY have you .
Show me actual evidence a £600 Tesla 'inspection' does anything apart from put £600 into Tesla's bank account and I'll happly pay the service pack. Even at £2.3k the 4 year service pack is only 3% if what we paid for the car, but am not in the habit if wasting money for no reason.
My last service highlighted I had a problem with one tyre that meant it could fail at any time, who knows how it would have failed, who knows what the consequences would have been.Show me actual evidence a £600 Tesla 'inspection' does anything apart from put £600 into Tesla's bank account and I'll happly pay the service pack. Even at £2.3k the 4 year service pack is only 3% if what we paid for the car, but am not in the habit if wasting money for no reason.
Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 18th August 09:31
Plenty report problems with abnormal wear on the very inside edge of the tyres which is very difficult to see without a ramp, again potentially saving a serious failure
Other have reported suspension components being repaired
Plenty who have reported problems with air con failing and other issues report not having had the car serviced.
Just like those that don't go to the dentist don't immediately have all their teeth fall out, not all services result in actions being needed.
Don't confuse the cost of the service with the need for the service. If it was £100 would you have it done?
Tesla are over zealous in requiring 12.5k/12 month service intervals when nearly every other company is happy with 2 years and 20k miles or so, but don't confuse that, or Tesla not linking it to warranty to avoid block exemption laws, as a sign you can ignore completely.
But its your family and their well being sitting in that car.
Heres Johnny said:
Don't confuse the cost of the service with the need for the service. If it was £100 would you have it done?
The X will be going to the same garage who worked on my old 335i. £100 every couple of years for brake fluid change when I'll get them to check for play in suspension, and wheels I'm changing from winter/summer my self so keeping an eye on tyres is not an issue.Am sure plenty of people are happy to pay Tesla for a service, just like people seem to enjoy throwing money at Lexus/BMW/Mercedes dealers. I simply don't see the point of wasting money on a Tesla service, just like I don't see the point of doing the same thing for my wifes Lexus or my old BMW.
gangzoom said:
Why does Lexus want £400 for a oil change on our IS300H when a Toyota dealer can do the same job for half the cost?
This is current Tesla service schedule, the warranty on the car is valid WITHOUT servicing.
Am quite happy to spend £££ on cars when needed, but £600 for essentially an 'inspection'?? I can think of better ways to spend the cash.
Not sure about Model 3 pricing but I suspect it'll be similar. End of the day its your money and spend it how you wish.
You don't have to service any car. It's not a legal requirement. And I appreciate that Tesla are clear that servicing isn't required to maintain warranty.This is current Tesla service schedule, the warranty on the car is valid WITHOUT servicing.
Am quite happy to spend £££ on cars when needed, but £600 for essentially an 'inspection'?? I can think of better ways to spend the cash.
Not sure about Model 3 pricing but I suspect it'll be similar. End of the day its your money and spend it how you wish
.But again, you've stated servicing is zero. It's not. It's far from zero.
gangzoom said:
The X will be going to the same garage who worked on my old 335i. £100 every couple of years for brake fluid change when I'll get them to check for play in suspension, and wheels I'm changing from winter/summer my self so keeping an eye on tyres is not an issue.
Am sure plenty of people are happy to pay Tesla for a service, just like people seem to enjoy throwing money at Lexus/BMW/Mercedes dealers. I simply don't see the point of wasting money on a Tesla service, just like I don't see the point of doing the same thing for my wifes Lexus or my old BMW.
Don't forget your coolant service too.Am sure plenty of people are happy to pay Tesla for a service, just like people seem to enjoy throwing money at Lexus/BMW/Mercedes dealers. I simply don't see the point of wasting money on a Tesla service, just like I don't see the point of doing the same thing for my wifes Lexus or my old BMW.
More relevant to the question about used S/X prices in relation to 3 production, doesnt seem to have had a impact in the US, where the earliest S is 6 years old.
https://insideevs.com/model-3-used-tesla-sales/
https://insideevs.com/model-3-used-tesla-sales/
https://youtu.be/DK2jrYRFXKI
First 1/4 mile time of the AWD version versus the Performance AWD version (+$10K).
Apparently the by 30mph the Performance is already 1 second ahead, but 1/4 miles still only 1 second ahead with similar trap speed.
Real life 30-70/50-70 etc pulls might be really similar between the AWD and Performance versions, AWD version might just be the best 'value' Model 3 to get.
First 1/4 mile time of the AWD version versus the Performance AWD version (+$10K).
Apparently the by 30mph the Performance is already 1 second ahead, but 1/4 miles still only 1 second ahead with similar trap speed.
Real life 30-70/50-70 etc pulls might be really similar between the AWD and Performance versions, AWD version might just be the best 'value' Model 3 to get.
gangzoom said:
https://youtu.be/DK2jrYRFXKI
First 1/4 mile time of the AWD version versus the Performance AWD version (+$10K).
Apparently the by 30mph the Performance is already 1 second ahead, but 1/4 miles still only 1 second ahead with similar trap speed.
Real life 30-70/50-70 etc pulls might be really similar between the AWD and Performance versions, AWD version might just be the best 'value' Model 3 to get.
If its ahead by 1s at 30mph but only stays that far ahead, the non P has already matched the speed of the Performance car at that point. First 1/4 mile time of the AWD version versus the Performance AWD version (+$10K).
Apparently the by 30mph the Performance is already 1 second ahead, but 1/4 miles still only 1 second ahead with similar trap speed.
Real life 30-70/50-70 etc pulls might be really similar between the AWD and Performance versions, AWD version might just be the best 'value' Model 3 to get.
It feels just like a rerun of the P85D against the 85D and for all the talk of performance, the common battery is the limiting factor once you've got the initial traction off the line dealt with.
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