Second hand EVs
Discussion
Mr E said:
w1bbles said:
I needed to buy a used car at the weekend and we already have an EV charging point at home so was hoping to buy an electric car. Looked at Leafs and Zoes but my commute is 110 miles round trip and in cold weather neither used models in our budget are a safe bet. Ended up buying a Mk 6 2.0 TDI Golf that manages an indicated 59 mpg on the trip for £7k. The economics for used electric cars aren’t quite there yet.
I’d suggest a daily commute of 110 miles is top 95th percentile. https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/107680134/North-A...
He and his wife Jo had previously lived in Whangaparāoa and Dairy Flat, but moved to the northernmost town in the Auckland region four years ago for a more rural lifestyle to "get out of the rat race"
Despite costing him about $880 in petrol, $300 in CBD parking and $92 in road tolls each month, he said commuting was "basically a way of life now."
Barnes' work hours are 9am-6pm, but he leaves three hours early at 6am to "skip out" on morning traffic, sometimes getting to work between 7.30am and 8am. He doesn't usually get home until after 7pm.
I couldnt do that ...
He and his wife Jo had previously lived in Whangaparāoa and Dairy Flat, but moved to the northernmost town in the Auckland region four years ago for a more rural lifestyle to "get out of the rat race"
Despite costing him about $880 in petrol, $300 in CBD parking and $92 in road tolls each month, he said commuting was "basically a way of life now."
Barnes' work hours are 9am-6pm, but he leaves three hours early at 6am to "skip out" on morning traffic, sometimes getting to work between 7.30am and 8am. He doesn't usually get home until after 7pm.
I couldnt do that ...
w1bbles said:
Fair point. I wasn’t explicit about the judgement being for my personal circumstances but... if you like to travel a bit at the weekend (which I do) then being limited to a 50 mile radius is a bit limiting. For example, I’m going to Mull at the weekend with the family. We couldn’t drive to Oban from home, ferry to Mull, meal in Ulva, back home again without charging twice on the trip. No reliable infrastructure. In the Golf we’d use half a tank tops.
The use case for that is perhaps a range extender PHEV (Outlander, for example) where someone might do frequent short journeys, but require the ability to do 'a bit more' when required.Each category has a perfect demograph, but unfortunately too many people buy these hybrids/EVs and then commute 100 miles+ on the motorway and complain about how EVs are useless.
boyse7en said:
It will be interesting to see what happens in a few year's time as more EVs come on to the second hand market, and older EVs head towards shed money.
As a buyer of typically of 10 year old cars for about £2500, which I then run until they die (typically about 5-8 years) I do wonder what I will be buying in the future.
Currently a 10 year old car does everything it did when new, but obviously has a higher potential of failure of major components
An EV a 10 years old will not perform as well in terms of range as when it was new. And the cost to replace batteries will (unless the tech changes rapidly) far outweigh the cost of the car. Second-hand spares won't be available as they will be just as limited in their performance.
I'm not sure what will happen, but on scenario might be that the price of EVs crashes to scrap value once the batteries reach a certain age
People are right to be concerned about the long term residuals of EVs but only on the grounds that as of yet there is no real history or proven market place data. As a buyer of typically of 10 year old cars for about £2500, which I then run until they die (typically about 5-8 years) I do wonder what I will be buying in the future.
Currently a 10 year old car does everything it did when new, but obviously has a higher potential of failure of major components
An EV a 10 years old will not perform as well in terms of range as when it was new. And the cost to replace batteries will (unless the tech changes rapidly) far outweigh the cost of the car. Second-hand spares won't be available as they will be just as limited in their performance.
I'm not sure what will happen, but on scenario might be that the price of EVs crashes to scrap value once the batteries reach a certain age
But that doesn’t mean some logic cannot be brought to bear. With an EV there isn’t much to wear out other than the battery pack in the grand scene of things. With ICE you have all the big parts of the drivetrain which are ticking time bombs in terms of cost.
Something to consider regarding the battery pack of that is to be the focal concern the value is that all the chemical elements that make up the bulk of the value of the battery cell are still there inside a defunct battery cell. This means that a two way market will exist whereby when you need to replace your whole pack the company that you go to will need to bid you considerable value for your old pack so as to win your business. So the cost of replacement won’t be anywhere near the same cost of buying a new pack out of the blue. At the same time, there will be firms who will be able to diagnose which cells within a pack have failed and specifically replace those as part of a reconditioning service.
Personally, I would not consider the battery pack itself to be a huge concern or potential future burden. Hell, if govts change legislation to force EV adoption then the cost of the raw materials of batteries will sky rocket and that half clapped out battery pack in your ten year old EV could become well worth car jacking you for as it climbs heavily in value.
Where I see concerns is primarily how easy it is to remove the battery pack from a particular model of car. If you know you are going to be holding the car long term and that having the pack refurbished or replaced is likely then logically you’d want to choose an EV where not only can the pack be removed for the least labour cost but also that the pack design allows for cell replacement for the least labour cost. The secondary concern is obviously that each step change in battery tech risks arriving at the point that your pack is valueless. But I’m sure that even this risk of entirely new battery tech or chemistry appearing could be hedged out via the insurance market if the EV market becomes large enough for an underwriter to see a clear projected upside to offering such a contract.
In short, I think old EVs should be bought based on how easy it is to get the battery pack out and how likely it is that you could opt to use more up to date battery tech in 5/10 years time of that is possible to know.
And I think that general depreciation is going to be heavily countered by both current and future legislation that is going to force additional demand for used EVs even though there is no specific legislation that favours EV over hybrid as of yet but I suspect that will change once all the people who paid tens of thousands buying diesel cars so as to save hundreds have finished paying tens of thousands buying hybrids so as to save a few hundred pounds.
I think thats an interesting point regarding recycling of/purchase of the batteries on an exchange basis, makes the primary concern over longevity of pure EVs easier to 'get'.
Certainly for me the range would be fine, there are plenty of charge points locally and overnight at home would not be an issue.
I guess as the market matures so the choice of cars will expand, review wise it seems a mixed bag on genuine range capability, but that is probably down to type of usage vs expectation of the users!
Certainly for me the range would be fine, there are plenty of charge points locally and overnight at home would not be an issue.
I guess as the market matures so the choice of cars will expand, review wise it seems a mixed bag on genuine range capability, but that is probably down to type of usage vs expectation of the users!
Tom74 said:
I think thats an interesting point regarding recycling of/purchase of the batteries on an exchange basis, makes the primary concern over longevity of pure EVs easier to 'get'.
Certainly for me the range would be fine, there are plenty of charge points locally and overnight at home would not be an issue.
I guess as the market matures so the choice of cars will expand, review wise it seems a mixed bag on genuine range capability, but that is probably down to type of usage vs expectation of the users!
Recycling the contents of a battery is actually very easy and very cheap. The problem that we have today with the recycling of batteries is that they are bloody heavy and expensive to transport to and from the place of recycling and those places are few and far between. Certainly for me the range would be fine, there are plenty of charge points locally and overnight at home would not be an issue.
I guess as the market matures so the choice of cars will expand, review wise it seems a mixed bag on genuine range capability, but that is probably down to type of usage vs expectation of the users!
A car battery pack is thousands of cells in one place so it becomes much more cost effective to deliver and return thousands of cells in one go as opposed to collecting thousands individually. Plus, in time, as there become enough used and elderly EVs in the market the number of recycling and refurb points will increase and so transport costs fall further.
In all likelihood the way it will transpire to work is that there will be several locations around the U.K. where you simply drive, or have taken, your clapped out battery pack. It is removed, assessed precisely, given a value and a brand new or refurbished pack is fitted and your car is returned.
The most common situation will be that your old battery pack has lost about 30% of its cells so you get it swapped for a pack that has been refurbed already. A bit like when your old gearbox or engine is swapped for a recon. You pay labour, a discounted purchase price and receive a payment for your old item. All the numbers will be different but the basic mechanics of the deal will be the same.
We’ve seen announcements recently that battery firms will buy back the whole pack and recycle the surviving cells into domestic power walls but most owners of cheap old cars that want to keep them going won’t be desiring to fork out for a brand new power pack unless the newer tech adds serious value uplift to the car but prefer the cheaper option to swap it for a recon pack.
The real question is just how much labour is required to drop these packs in and out of the cars? I’ve no idea but I’m sure it won’t be dead easy as they don’t want them being easily nickable and I’m sure some may require much of the car being taken apart?
When I finally get round to buying an EV for the local runabout jobs then the ease at which the pack can be swapped is going to be a factor.
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