Batteries dead after 5 years
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
No. It is religious, deluded lunacy to claim that there is a yet a viable, commercial market for EVs outside of very niche markets such as small pockets of very high average wealth or high pockets of excess consumption.
what? I guess i must be imaging the fact that in my small close of houses (probably around 30 houses) in an unremarkable bit of the east midlands we have:An i3 (mine, bought second hand it cost me £16k, hardly big money)
A Mk1 Leaf (on a 13plate, probably bought new, probably cost the owner around £22k or similar
A Mk2 Leaf, leased as it's got number plates with the leasing companies name on
A Zoe, which the guy bought second hand a few months ago.
Give it another 2 years and there be both many more affordable new EVs and many more second hand ones on the market for low cost
There will be many more. But even you know full well that the tipping point will be when they are genuinely cheaper than their respective ICE counterparts. Range anxiety will disappear when the mechanically simpler and cheaper EV is 20% less than its ICE on the monthlies.
As highlighted before, you are a fervent believer in EVs but still only bought used. I believe in EVs but have no intention of paying current premiums. Rob is a very big believer but bought a hybrid.
At the same time you’re concept of what wealth is is skewed. On a global level we are all very comfortably off. And there is a very good reason why EVs have been focussing on the premium sector and/or premium consumers.
There’s a Renault EV van that starts at. £45k. The base ICE starts at £20k. The Hyundai is £30k but the comaparable ICE is £20k.
To get volume you need to be price competitive first and we are not there yet. The car industry won’t be selling 30m EVs next year. Or the year after or after.
As highlighted before, you are a fervent believer in EVs but still only bought used. I believe in EVs but have no intention of paying current premiums. Rob is a very big believer but bought a hybrid.
At the same time you’re concept of what wealth is is skewed. On a global level we are all very comfortably off. And there is a very good reason why EVs have been focussing on the premium sector and/or premium consumers.
There’s a Renault EV van that starts at. £45k. The base ICE starts at £20k. The Hyundai is £30k but the comaparable ICE is £20k.
To get volume you need to be price competitive first and we are not there yet. The car industry won’t be selling 30m EVs next year. Or the year after or after.
To be fair, I'm also too tight to buy/lease/pcp a new car - EV or ICE. So I won't be getting an EV until the good ones have depreciated enough, and I will have to accept that my choice is dictated by what new buyers purchase. My girlfriend has extended the term on her current lease and is now actively looking at EVs for the next one. But her usage and mileage (short commute, school run, patient house calls, all urban, off-road parking at home and at the surgery) is perfect for it.
otolith said:
To be fair, I'm also too tight to buy/lease/pcp a new car - EV or ICE. So I won't be getting an EV until the good ones have depreciated enough, and I will have to accept that my choice is dictated by what new buyers purchase. My girlfriend has extended the term on her current lease and is now actively looking at EVs for the next one. But her usage and mileage (short commute, school run, patient house calls, all urban, off-road parking at home and at the surgery) is perfect for it.
I don’t mind buying a new car but I wouldn’t pay a premium to have the latest fad, which is, despite any screams to the contrary, what many of the premium EV purchases are. At the lower end of the market, my wife would genuinely benefit from an EV as the bulk of domestic duties are relatively short local trips which an i3 or pretty much any bottom end current EV would be fine for but they are ludicrously expensive and simply don’t make sense. People can scream about EVs being the future all they want but it’s not a future for the masses until pricing falls below ICE and then infrastructure grows to assist.
They are toys for consumers with excess income, the global wealthy for the time being. I don’t think range matters, I don’t think running costs matter. I don’t think taxation matters. The primary thing that matters for the millions who buy the biggest selling volume cars all around the world is price. When the price of the arse end EV drops well below that of the arse end ICE or hybrid then I think we will see the future become the present. Or maybe EVs will remain the preserver of the wealthier and the masses will be stuck with hybrids?
Either way, I don’t think anyone in their 70s needs to hugely trouble themselves about not being able to drive a pure ICe until they are packed off by their kids into some hideous camp for the unwanted.
DonkeyApple said:
I don’t mind buying a new car but I wouldn’t pay a premium to have the latest fad, which is, despite any screams to the contrary, what many of the premium EV purchases are.
....
Or maybe EVs will remain the preserver of the wealthier and the masses will be stuck with hybrids?
Most EV are certainly no more expensive than the equivalent premium brand ICE. People don't seem short of money to own BMW, Audi and Mercedes.....
Or maybe EVs will remain the preserver of the wealthier and the masses will be stuck with hybrids?
I'm not sure how a hybrid will ever be a cheaper alternative. The cost of installing and maintaining a battery and ICE is prohibitive when compared to running just 1.
Now, now, children, let's stop all the bickering!
Perhaps we can all agree on these points:
1) The internal combustion engined car is not dead right now, and people have the right to buy and enjoy them.
2) Some people will always want to have the next big thing, even if it's not cost-effective.
3) Electric vehicles ARE coming. The choice will increase and prices will come down once they're making them on the same scale as ICE cars.
Nobody knows for sure, but perhaps in 10 years time hydrogen will be produced commercially from intermittent renewables as a way of using energy from solar panels at night etc. Hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles wouldn't need big batteries, and can be refilled in times not far off petrol cars today. Hopefully that'd be met with positivity from all.
Perhaps we can all agree on these points:
1) The internal combustion engined car is not dead right now, and people have the right to buy and enjoy them.
2) Some people will always want to have the next big thing, even if it's not cost-effective.
3) Electric vehicles ARE coming. The choice will increase and prices will come down once they're making them on the same scale as ICE cars.
Nobody knows for sure, but perhaps in 10 years time hydrogen will be produced commercially from intermittent renewables as a way of using energy from solar panels at night etc. Hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles wouldn't need big batteries, and can be refilled in times not far off petrol cars today. Hopefully that'd be met with positivity from all.
Europa Jon said:
1) The internal combustion engined car is not dead right now, and people have the right to buy and enjoy them.
It's not dead, but my own feeling (and I'm not alone) is that extending the life of ICE will be at the cost of the environment. The arguments against seem to be contrived and paper thin. Forthcoming combustion engine bans are not, in my opinion, ambitious enough.We really can't afford to delay acting to prevent catastrophic climate change.
Evanivitch said:
DonkeyApple said:
I don’t mind buying a new car but I wouldn’t pay a premium to have the latest fad, which is, despite any screams to the contrary, what many of the premium EV purchases are.
....
Or maybe EVs will remain the preserver of the wealthier and the masses will be stuck with hybrids?
Most EV are certainly no more expensive than the equivalent premium brand ICE. People don't seem short of money to own BMW, Audi and Mercedes.....
Or maybe EVs will remain the preserver of the wealthier and the masses will be stuck with hybrids?
I'm not sure how a hybrid will ever be a cheaper alternative. The cost of installing and maintaining a battery and ICE is prohibitive when compared to running just 1.
Even in the mid level we are not there quite yet. The 1 Series starts at. £22k. The I3 seems to start at £35k.
You’ve got to want an EV to buy one, whereas once they are genuinely cheaper to buy then the masses who shop on price will be buying them and making the tiny adjustments to lifestyle to make them work perfectly well.
How close we are to that point nonenof is really know but over the next few years we will probably all get a much clearer perspective but I really don’t see the original topic of this thread even remotely standing in the way of people switching en masse to EVs at the point in the future when they are the logical option in terms of purchase price. A single motor that will last well beyond the body and even then retain a strong value, a battery pack that can be refurbed again and again beyond the life of the body. Those things do make EVs look a no brainer in the future and may even act to underpin residuals making renting EVs much less cost than the comparable ICE. If you take something like the i3 with it’s CF body, surely that can be repeatedly refurbed to make it last a multiple longer than a metal car with a much more complex drivetrain to maintain?
Evanivitch said:
Most EV are certainly no more expensive than the equivalent premium brand ICE. People don't seem short of money to own BMW, Audi and Mercedes.
I'm not sure how a hybrid will ever be a cheaper alternative. The cost of installing and maintaining a battery and ICE is prohibitive when compared to running just 1.
As we don't have the Model 3 in the UK the cheapest Tesla you can currently buy is the almost £75k Model S. That certainly isn't the case with the German brands you mentioned.I'm not sure how a hybrid will ever be a cheaper alternative. The cost of installing and maintaining a battery and ICE is prohibitive when compared to running just 1.
Evanivitch said:
Most EV are certainly no more expensive than the equivalent premium brand ICE. People don't seem short of money to own BMW, Audi and Mercedes.
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Hard to agree. Tesla’s compare in price with the very most expensive Mercedes, more expensive than the very high spec BMW 7s etc and they don’t really match them in terms of quality in just areas. .
Surely the best comparison is where the same car is available in both ICE and EV form. In that case, the Kona EV will be about 25% more expensive than its equivalent ICE version.
The e Golf shows a similar premium and the I Pace is quite a lot more than the F Pace, though I appreciate they’re a different shape (the F being arguably much nicer!).
RJG46 said:
As we don't have the Model 3 in the UK the cheapest Tesla you can currently buy is the almost £75k Model S. That certainly isn't the case with the German brands you mentioned.
And yet the base MS 75D with a 0-60 of 4.4s and the size of a 5 series it sits reasonably somewhere between a 540i and a M5.Theres certainly a cost of purchase disparity with ICE cars for now.
Few actual models, few actual vehicles too with huge waiting lists typically.
The Kona is an amazing car but its twice the purchase price here compared to the 2wd ICE version. Cost to run over say 8 years will be lower but that is too long term for now. But given how prices are coming down that gap will vanish in 3-4 years.
Few actual models, few actual vehicles too with huge waiting lists typically.
The Kona is an amazing car but its twice the purchase price here compared to the 2wd ICE version. Cost to run over say 8 years will be lower but that is too long term for now. But given how prices are coming down that gap will vanish in 3-4 years.
Evanivitch said:
And yet the base MS 75D with a 0-60 of 4.4s and the size of a 5 series it sits reasonably somewhere between a 540i and a M5.
Of course it doesn’t. I know they’ve changed a bit but I tried a 75d a couple of years ago when I was looking at changing my 530d. I didn’t think the Tesla was as good.
Build quality, handling, ride, general interior. The BMW was a lot better.
Yes, the lack of engine noise is nice but once cruising there wasn’t much in it. They still have road noise, which is about all you hear in any premium car of that size once you’re cruising. The Tesla I drove had quite a bit of wind noise too.
A zero to 60 time is only one small element of performance. Especially when it isn’t related to a car’s ability to cruise at high speed.
In any case you can buy a fairly high spec 540i for under £50k.
REALIST123 said:
Of course it doesn’t.
It does because they're a similar size and price. Just because you have different priorities doesn't mean it's incomparable.The BMW doesn't have the same technology integration, it doesn't have the same Autopilot ability and it requires you to go to a petrol station frequently.
Evanivitch said:
It does because they're a similar size and price. Just because you have different priorities doesn't mean it's incomparable.
The BMW doesn't have the same technology integration, it doesn't have the same Autopilot ability and it requires you to go to a petrol station frequently.
The Tesla S is 45% (ish) more than a 540i. That is not a similar price. The BMW doesn't have the same technology integration, it doesn't have the same Autopilot ability and it requires you to go to a petrol station frequently.
ElectricSoup said:
Just like colour TVs, EVs will never catch on as they're just too expensive.
Right?
Bite.Right?
Everyone knows they will but just like the early VCRs that cost 800 each. Leccy cars one day will be at petrol prices. However..... manufacturers know they don't need expensive fuel going in anymore so they'll ramp up price alittle still to take advantage.
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