Batteries dead after 5 years

[ElectricSoup]

Sa Calobra said:

ElectricSoup said:

Just like colour TVs, EVs will never catch on as they're just too expensive.

Right?

Bite.

Everyone knows they will but just like the early VCRs that cost 800 each. Leccy cars one day will be at petrol prices. However..... manufacturers know they don't need expensive fuel going in anymore so they'll ramp up price alittle still to take advantage.

Colour TVs required a more expensive licence back in the day. Prices for sets eventually fell to a level where black & white was no longer sold. Took a while, I remember you could still buy B&W TVs in the 80s and many people in my grandparents' generation never upgraded to colour.

[Greg_D]

Monkeylegend said:

oop north said:

Monkeylegend said:

Don't known about you but in my driving career of 50 years I have had at least 50 cars and averaged about 20k miles a year, and for the last 15 years averaged 100k miles a year, and in all that time I have never had a single engine failure.

I hate to think how many of today's battery packs I would have worn out covering the same distance.

100k a year? Do you work for national express?

Nope, I was self employed.

self employed what!!!! durability tester - how on earth did you manage 400+ miles a day in the uk (49 working weeks/yr x 5 days) and still have the time to actually earn any money. I'm calling shenanigans

[DonkeyApple]

ElectricSoup said:

Colour TVs required a more expensive licence back in the day. Prices for sets eventually fell to a level where black & white was no longer sold. Took a while, I remember you could still buy B&W TVs in the 80s and many people in my grandparents' generation never upgraded to colour.

And most people got them on tick or rented them. Early adopters used them as a means to shout about what superior humans they were, while others cited that they were a total waste and once they became the de facto product that everyone bought as a result of affordability the urban air was cleaner but the planet as a whole considerably more fked.

And even today, in remote, cultural backwaters such as Yorkshire you will still find people who claim a black and white TV is superior.

The EV is the new thing and so long as a different solution doesn’t appear like VHS over Betamax etc then we are exactly the same sort of cycle as we were with other big tech changes such as TVs as you suggest and probably smartphones also and many other additions that were hugely costly to begin with, adopted first by a very typical type of consumer while ranted against by others but once their price tipped a certain point they simply became the de facto product. Air conditioning in cars is probably another fair comparison.

I do suspect that in less than 20 years the majority of new cars will be EVs and that ICE will still be around in the guise of hybrids if the power density and cost issue of batteries has not very significantly improved. I also think that over that period the way that we use private cars is going to change also and the way we work. But while all of that should significantly improve local pollution and be a huge benefit as such, it won’t do anything to fix the core problem of over consumption.

EVs aren’t a solution they are just a more logical way for people to move from a to b where a vehicle is needed or preferred.

[otolith]

DonkeyApple said:

I do suspect that in less than 20 years the majority of new cars will be EVs and that ICE will still be around in the guise of hybrids if the power density and cost issue of batteries has not very significantly improved.

I do wonder what will happen to the cost of fuelling an ICE once petrol becomes a niche product. I suppose there are oil prices and tax to consider, though I doubt that the latter is going to decrease.

[ElectricSoup]

ash73 said:

We seem to be getting away from the original point that nobody is going to want to buy a 5 year old EV because the battery pack will be fked and it will cost a fortune to replace.

300-500kg battery packs are never going to be cheap to buy, and we all know what a lottery it is buying cheap laptop battery replacements.

We haven't got away from that point, rather it has been addressed and rebutted several times. You can choose to accept the rebuttals or not, but you can't claim it hasn't been addressed. In summary, 5 year old EVS are sold already, are not fked, and even if they were then battery refurbishment options are available at a non-crippling cost compared to other running costs which may have been incurred over time with an ICE car, and with time these costs, where needed, will come down due to market forces.

[DonkeyApple]

otolith said:

I do wonder what will happen to the cost of fuelling an ICE once petrol becomes a niche product. I suppose there are oil prices and tax to consider, though I doubt that the latter is going to decrease.

Yup. Over the last 20 years in Central London I have watched petrol stations close as the land became more valuable for redevelopment and local authorities became more willing to permit change of use. Some of this will also be down to the commerciality of fuel stations having evolved. There are obviously more cars needing fuel but they tend to last longer between fuel stops and forecourts have more pumps that fill quicker and swifter checkouts so despite the trend to park at a pump and do the weekly shop in reality filling up has become much quicker. You can still get fuel but it’s no longer a case of being able to do so within a mile or two of home in any direction. But we’ve also seen many people adapt over the years to fill with fuel at the same time as doing the weekly shop.

If EVs took over overnight then I think fuel station economics would struggle to adapt quickly enough, for example if a superior means to power an EV suddenly appeared. But generally as EV adoption gathers pace I think that you will see forecourts adapt. We will need fewer of them and the ones that remain will require fewer pumps. There won’t be a price war against electricity as so much of the cost of fuel is tax.

Ultimately, where we will end up with regards to fuel pumps is possibly exactly where we began with them a hundred years ago. Single pumps, operating as additional little revenue streams and consumer attractions located at businesses who’s primary purpose is not selling fuel. Weirdly, this is where we currently are with charging for EVs. Fuel would become more expensive as a result of lower volumes etc but that wouldn’t have a massive impact on prices given just how much is actually determined by taxation.

There’s also the refining process to consider. Until the internal combustion engine was invented there was no viable, commercial use for the diesel and petrol that was left over from the distillation of oil into the fractions that had commercial use. The petroleum fractions were basically a waste product and burnt off!

I think it is roughly the case that at the moment about half the crude extracted is primarily for the production of transport fuel. So, a huge shift to EVs in theory would deliver the benefit of us only needing about half the crude oil that we currently extract, which is a good thing arguably. But, beyond a certain point we would begin to enter that problem area of what to actually do with the petroleum fraction that is left over as we extract the other fractions we still need if there are no internal combustion engines to give it commercial value? We don’t really, 100 years on, have a use for it other than to power engines.

And there are other potential concerns down the line such as having all our transport and our homes powered by centralised power station generated electricity instead of having a blended solution that makes use of gas and petrol and that is the risk of the whole country being totally reliant on a handful of power generation points. Environmentally that makes good sense but in practical, economic and security terms it doesn’t.

I can see a valid argument, as a nation, in maintaining a certain amount of ICE transport on purpose and maybe like the concept of immunisation you don’t need everyone to convert to EV but just the majority? I do see an argument that a total switch would not be as efficient as a majority switch.

I do see ICE remaining for decades to come and it will just be where we find the fuel pumps that evolves with the commercial change that comes with the majority switch to EV. The petrol stations as independent, stand alone business units with as many pumps as possible crammed in will probably give way to single pumps positioned at other businesses. That would be my best guess as it is exactly how it used to be when there were far less ICE cars on the road and it is also how it currently is with EVs.

[andy43]

ElectricSoup said:

ash73 said:

We seem to be getting away from the original point that nobody is going to want to buy a 5 year old EV because the battery pack will be fked and it will cost a fortune to replace.

300-500kg battery packs are never going to be cheap to buy, and we all know what a lottery it is buying cheap laptop battery replacements.

We haven't got away from that point, rather it has been addressed and rebutted several times. You can choose to accept the rebuttals or not, but you can't claim it hasn't been addressed. In summary, 5 year old EVS are sold already, are not fked, and even if they were then battery refurbishment options are available at a non-crippling cost compared to other running costs which may have been incurred over time with an ICE car, and with time these costs, where needed, will come down due to market forces.

I only really know about Nissan as we have had a 24kw Leaf for three years. It's as good as the day it was delivered, apart from a suspension clunk. No faults in 3 years. It's being replaced with a Kia Soul 30kw EV 'cos the Kia is slightly old-tech as was the Leaf when we got it so it's also dirt cheap to rent for another three years - £170/month plus vat, 6k per annum, on a business contract hire inc tyres and servicing - a no brainer for low mileage short range use.

The solution for long term EV use is obviously new batteries when they start to fail - but not at stupid money - a brand new pack for a 24kwh Leaf is quoted as $6200 here - https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery... with a recon pack refurbished by Nissan at $2850.
Battery prices will go through the floor as demand increases - here they're stating 90% drop in 7 years - http://www.carsuk.net/cost-of-replacing-the-nissan... so I suspect Peugeot were taking the piss behind the market curve at 17k euro as quoted by the OP.
Nissan also reuse old packs in Powerwall-type domestic installations I believe, so there'll always be a value to the bits.

Note the Nissan batteries don't have thermal management like Teslas, so degradation is more likely. New 40kw Leafs can apparently degrade quicker than the original 24kw cars due to that lack of thermal management. Waffling now but there's a setting on Leafs to charge to 80% capacity max - to aid battery longevity. Going forwards with new designs and bigger batteries, I suspect all manufacturers will fit these thermal gubbins, which should help battery life. That Peugeot is a very early design.

Heat pumps destroying themselves and brakes seizing up on Leafs are a bigger problem than batteries, but still rare.
Compared to DPF, DMF, black death and all the other crap that comes with a modern ICE, if you want low hassle motoring an EV is the way forward - get the range up to maybe 200 miles, get prices more in line with the way the battery prices are allegedly going, and an EV would fly off the shelves - they're perfect for non-ICE-enthusiasts who just want white goods motoring for cheap. Minimal brake use, no clutch, no gearbox, hardly any moving parts, and happy polar bears. Not giving my TVR up just yet though.. I agree there will be ICE vehicles in regular use for decades to come.

Problems will be getting that price and range competitive, extending grid capacity for charging the things, and also what gubbermint will have to do to replace the ICE road tax revenue.

Edited by andy43 on Thursday 22 November 10:05

[RJG46]

ElectricSoup said:

Just like colour TVs, EVs will never catch on as they're just too expensive.

Right?

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

[lowdrag]

I saw my first colour TV at a friend's parents house in 1967. It was a 21" and had cost £379, the equivalent, so the B of E calculator tells me, to £6,539 today.

[DonkeyApple]

RJG46 said:

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

At the current rate we are moving at there will be a cultural tipping point though.

The bulk of new cars bought each year are the cheapest little runabouts and these mostly just potter around on domestic chores and the daily commute. Ultimately that is what EVs need to become cheaper to buy and cheaper to run than and we will see an enormous cultural shift.

Before then we are likely to see them become much more prevalent at the pseudo premium, mid segment sector where volumes are likely to be much higher than the premium sector that seems pretty close to working economically.

I think the real key here is to never underestimate how rapidly a cultural perception of a product changes as it becomes not just affordable to the masses but the cheaper option having started out as a premium product initially.

I guess the only real question is when this tipping point might be? Some people think it will be next week but I think the reality is that it’s more than a decade away and that the big switch in between will be to hybrids where the mass market will rapidly learn that range anxiety is a bit of a red herring and make tiny lifestyle adjustments to run as much as possible on electric.

I also think it’ll be a decade for the mining and battery industry to be able to meet demand in a sufficiently stable manner, again with hybrids fitting that issue nicely.

But in ten years time there will still be a lot of ICE engines moving around the roads whether old cars or in hybrids.

[Witchfinder]

DonkeyApple said:

I guess the only real question is when this tipping point might be? Some people think it will be next week but I think the reality is that it’s more than a decade away and that the big switch in between will be to hybrids where the mass market will rapidly learn that range anxiety is a bit of a red herring and make tiny lifestyle adjustments to run as much as possible on electric.

I think your estimate is conservative. The number of be models launching, and increase in battery supply will lead to a glut. I expect it to really start to take off in 2021.

[anonymous-user]

Witchfinder said:

DonkeyApple said:

I guess the only real question is when this tipping point might be? Some people think it will be next week but I think the reality is that it’s more than a decade away and that the big switch in between will be to hybrids where the mass market will rapidly learn that range anxiety is a bit of a red herring and make tiny lifestyle adjustments to run as much as possible on electric.

I think your estimate is conservative. The number of be models launching, and increase in battery supply will lead to a glut. I expect it to really start to take off in 2021.

It's also worth nothing that the big automotive companies are not developing hybrids today, they are developing EV's. The ever decreasing cost of batteries, and the ever increasing energy density has already (ie today, at the end of 2018) rendered hybrids as "also rans" for much of the market.

[cj2013]

RJG46 said:

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

If no one is buying them, where are they all coming from?

Quite a few have significant waiting lists too.

[RJG46]

cj2013 said:

RJG46 said:

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

If no one is buying them, where are they all coming from?

Quite a few have significant waiting lists too.

If nobody is buying them new because too expensive why can't you give them away on the second-hand market. Last time I looked they make up around 1 car in 200 on UK roads

[RobDickinson]

RJG46 said:

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

:woosh parrot:

[cj2013]

RJG46 said:

If nobody is buying them new because too expensive why can't you give them away on the second-hand market. Last time I looked they make up around 1 car in 200 on UK roads

Since when have they struggled to sell second hand??

[98elise]

RJG46 said:

cj2013 said:

RJG46 said:

Great point. EVs have been around for ages and still no one is buying them. That isn't because they are too expensive. Most people would have wanted a colour TV over a black and white one, people rented rather than bought back in the day.

If no one is buying them, where are they all coming from?

Quite a few have significant waiting lists too.

If nobody is buying them new because too expensive why can't you give them away on the second-hand market. Last time I looked they make up around 1 car in 200 on UK roads

Can you point me to one of these give away cars. I could do with a cheap EV.

[DonkeyApple]

98elise said:

Can you point me to one of these give away cars. I could do with a cheap EV.

The impending ULEZ seems to have created a stronger demand and bumped values up this year.

[RobDickinson]

Used leafs here are up 30-40% on a year ago.

[HTP99]

RobDickinson said:

Used leafs here are up 30-40% on a year ago.

ZOE's have gone up too, we are being offered in the trade, some versions for £1k more now than they were 2 months ago.

Had an enquiry on one 2 weeks ago offering £700 less than advertised, I told him no and that prices were going up, he didn't believe me, he walked, it sold for asking and the almost identical replacement is up for £400 more.