Toyota Mirai? Fuel Cell Vehicle
Discussion
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs. I think that car parks will evolve to be where people refuel away from home and that we will see energy vendors buying up or leasing parking facilities while they eventually wind down the forecourt model as we know it today. And I think that infrastructure evolution will massively damage the economics of a hydrogen model as much as anything.
Toaster said:
98elise said:
LPG is relatively easy to store and transport, Hydrogen is not. Hydrogen nfrastructure costs are massive, then there is the energy required to crack hydrogen.
The EV drivetrain is perfectly suited for cars, hydrogen fuel cell drivetrain is not. Fuel cells don't work very well when you need a sudden demand, so you also need a battery system.
Everything is a compromise with Hydrogen, and even it's fill time is not as fast as you might think.
"Our fill-up from one-quarter tank to full took about 6 minutes, 30 seconds, so a bit longer than filling up with gas but not prohibitively long. Still, it's much faster than even the quickest chargers for electric cars, Tesla's supercharger, which takes 30 minutes to charge up to 80 percent of its battery." probably 20-25Mins quicker than a battery carThe EV drivetrain is perfectly suited for cars, hydrogen fuel cell drivetrain is not. Fuel cells don't work very well when you need a sudden demand, so you also need a battery system.
Everything is a compromise with Hydrogen, and even it's fill time is not as fast as you might think.
https://newsroom.porsche.com/fallback/en/company/p...
Toaster said:
rscott said:
LPG is far easier to store and distribute than hydrogen though. It's also considerably cheaper.
Ok so you say its more expensive a quick look on an analysis:"At $53 per kW, the Mirai’s 114 kW fuel cell system would cost just over $6000. The high pressure storage for 5 kg H? is probably around $3000. So the capital cost of the Mirai’s energy delivery system with longer range looks to be roughly half that of the battery pack for the Model S."
However you are right in saying there are costs in production and storage of Hydrogen but if you are going to have a service station such as BP Shell etc that are mini marts serving food and coffee with Electric points could have the same site serving hydrogen, the estate is there its just a question of putting local generation and storage in.
According to this link the forecourts that have Hydrogen generate it on site as "ITM’s technology uses surplus renewable energy to separate hydrogen from water via electrolysis, producing the fuel on-site and removing the need to have regular deliveries. The company has a station operating in Rotherham and plans to deploy eight more across London, five of which will be open this year, and three of those will be on forecourts" https://fleetworld.co.uk/uk-to-get-fuel-stations-w...
http://www.itm-power.com/h2-stations
Its early days will Hydrogen become Viable, who knows but its rather neat that companies are spending R&D budgets on alternatives...
Just a thought if you own a Camper van you may have Calor Gas (LPG) some have opted for a Gas Low system which is 1/2 the price of Calor and you fill up at a service station and can do so across Europe except....Finland as they us LNP. What I am trying to say is that technology and perspectives can all lead to differing solutions, Batteries clearly have a place in the future but i wouldn't totally dismiss ICE or Hydrogen or other alternatives.
LPG is cheapest, then petrol and hydrogen are similar in cost (and that's before the government starts putting duty on hydrogen).
An EV is currently way cheaper than all the above, so hydrogen has to drop in price to about 1/5 the current cost to even be vaguely competitive.
That's highly unlikely given the high costs of distributing and storing it at filling stations.
jjwilde said:
Ed. said:
You think James May has that much influence over all the manufacturers who have spent millions looking into it?
No, I think it is what makes people think it's the future. Some people quote from him verbatim.Manufacturers had to explore options and if the teams working on them believed in their work so much the better. No one wants to do a press release explaining how they have wasted their time. Hopefully it won't have been a waste of time even if it doesn't end up in mainstream cars.
DonkeyApple said:
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs. I think that car parks will evolve to be where people refuel away from home and that we will see energy vendors buying up or leasing parking facilities while they eventually wind down the forecourt model as we know it today. And I think that infrastructure evolution will massively damage the economics of a hydrogen model as much as anything.
The charging stations are going to have become a more pleasant place to be than current petrol stations if you want people to hang around for longer. They seem to be moving that way with the attached supermarket /Costa but any chance to replace the run down motorway services would be a benefit. The progress of BP's chargemaster station roll-out should be interesting.
Ed. said:
DonkeyApple said:
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs. I think that car parks will evolve to be where people refuel away from home and that we will see energy vendors buying up or leasing parking facilities while they eventually wind down the forecourt model as we know it today. And I think that infrastructure evolution will massively damage the economics of a hydrogen model as much as anything.
The charging stations are going to have become a more pleasant place to be than current petrol stations if you want people to hang around for longer. They seem to be moving that way with the attached supermarket /Costa but any chance to replace the run down motorway services would be a benefit. The progress of BP's chargemaster station roll-out should be interesting.
And with traditional road network forecourts there’s not enough space, not enough consumer space and the wrong cultural mentality. Conversely, any car park has the right amount of space, has the consumer reasons for longer term parking such as work or shopping etc and the right mentality.
Something to consider about service stations is that EVs may trigger an evolution in the enterprises within the units. At the moment they are all businesses generally aimed at servicing customers as rapidly as possible such as fast food businesses but if consumers start needing to stay for longer then there will be an evolution as different types of businesses seek to meet that requirement. Higher margin restaurants etc
Edited by DonkeyApple on Tuesday 5th February 08:29
DonkeyApple said:
Ed. said:
DonkeyApple said:
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs. I think that car parks will evolve to be where people refuel away from home and that we will see energy vendors buying up or leasing parking facilities while they eventually wind down the forecourt model as we know it today. And I think that infrastructure evolution will massively damage the economics of a hydrogen model as much as anything.
The charging stations are going to have become a more pleasant place to be than current petrol stations if you want people to hang around for longer. They seem to be moving that way with the attached supermarket /Costa but any chance to replace the run down motorway services would be a benefit. The progress of BP's chargemaster station roll-out should be interesting.
And with traditional road network forecourts there’s not enough space, not enough consumer space and the wrong cultural mentality. Conversely, any car park has the right amount of space, has the consumer reasons for longer term parking such as work or shopping etc and the right mentality.
Something to consider about service stations is that EVs may trigger an evolution in the enterprises within the units. At the moment they are all businesses generally aimed at servicing customers as rapidly as possible such as fast food businesses but if consumers start needing to stay for longer then there will be an evolution as different types of businesses seek to meet that requirement. Higher margin restaurants etc
Edited by DonkeyApple on Tuesday 5th February 08:29
It wouldn't necessarily be more efficient than electricity generation and transmission in terms of start-to-pump vs start-to-charger, but not adding all that battery weight and cost to vehicles would mean lifetime cost could easily be lower then EVs.
And CO2 emissions? Done cleverly, they will be net zero.
There will need to be an alternate fuel to complement electricity as EVs do not answer all questions.
But what seems to always be overlooked is that even if no ICEs exist to burn petrol, petrol will still be being produced as a byproduct of fractional distillation of oil for all the other vital uses. We won’t be stopping extracting oil just because one fraction is no longer in demand. In the days before the ICE there was no real use for the petroleum fractions and they were mostly burnt off as waste products.
What that means is that petrol and diesel will still be being produced as leftovers of breaking oil for all its other uses. Any alternate fuel such as LPG, methanol or hydrogen must compete financially against petrol. The infrastructure for petrol already exists, the ICE that use it also and it will still be being produced and with no viable use other than in cars. None of the alternatives can compete in any way against that.
What we will almost certainly end up with is EVs for as many uses as possible and that network supported by ICE using petrol and diesel to infill.
But what seems to always be overlooked is that even if no ICEs exist to burn petrol, petrol will still be being produced as a byproduct of fractional distillation of oil for all the other vital uses. We won’t be stopping extracting oil just because one fraction is no longer in demand. In the days before the ICE there was no real use for the petroleum fractions and they were mostly burnt off as waste products.
What that means is that petrol and diesel will still be being produced as leftovers of breaking oil for all its other uses. Any alternate fuel such as LPG, methanol or hydrogen must compete financially against petrol. The infrastructure for petrol already exists, the ICE that use it also and it will still be being produced and with no viable use other than in cars. None of the alternatives can compete in any way against that.
What we will almost certainly end up with is EVs for as many uses as possible and that network supported by ICE using petrol and diesel to infill.
DonkeyApple said:
There will need to be an alternate fuel to complement electricity as EVs do not answer all questions.
But what seems to always be overlooked is that even if no ICEs exist to burn petrol, petrol will still be being produced as a byproduct of fractional distillation of oil for all the other vital uses. We won’t be stopping extracting oil just because one fraction is no longer in demand. In the days before the ICE there was no real use for the petroleum fractions and they were mostly burnt off as waste products.
What that means is that petrol and diesel will still be being produced as leftovers of breaking oil for all its other uses. Any alternate fuel such as LPG, methanol or hydrogen must compete financially against petrol. The infrastructure for petrol already exists, the ICE that use it also and it will still be being produced and with no viable use other than in cars. None of the alternatives can compete in any way against that.
What we will almost certainly end up with is EVs for as many uses as possible and that network supported by ICE using petrol and diesel to infill.
It can be used to generate electricity. Gas Turbines will run on anything that burns.But what seems to always be overlooked is that even if no ICEs exist to burn petrol, petrol will still be being produced as a byproduct of fractional distillation of oil for all the other vital uses. We won’t be stopping extracting oil just because one fraction is no longer in demand. In the days before the ICE there was no real use for the petroleum fractions and they were mostly burnt off as waste products.
What that means is that petrol and diesel will still be being produced as leftovers of breaking oil for all its other uses. Any alternate fuel such as LPG, methanol or hydrogen must compete financially against petrol. The infrastructure for petrol already exists, the ICE that use it also and it will still be being produced and with no viable use other than in cars. None of the alternatives can compete in any way against that.
What we will almost certainly end up with is EVs for as many uses as possible and that network supported by ICE using petrol and diesel to infill.
You are right about BEV's not being a one size fits all. The future is a mix of Hybrid, REX and BEV. That should cover just about everyones needs.
98elise said:
It can be used to generate electricity. Gas Turbines will run on anything that burns.
You are right about BEV's not being a one size fits all. The future is a mix of Hybrid, REX and BEV. That should cover just about everyones needs.
Yup. I think it will be very hard for any support fuel for EVs to start from scratch when petrol is already here and so incredibly cheap to produce and distribute. You are right about BEV's not being a one size fits all. The future is a mix of Hybrid, REX and BEV. That should cover just about everyones needs.
Just how massive would the commercial advantage of anything else need to be to warrant the investment in building both the products to use it and the infrastructure to distribute. We’ve of course seen nations very heavily subsidise EVs to get over that problem but are governments likely to replicate that and how much more money would be needed to incentivise companies to build everything when it is going to be a declining market?
Personally, I think we already have the products and distribution required in place. As you say we have EVs, Hybrids and REX. They use electricity which is all around us and petrol/diesel which is also all around us due to 100 years of monumental, global infrastructure creation. All that we will see over the next 20-40 years or until new technology appears that blows both Li EVs and ICE out of the water, is the rebasing and evolution of the existing infrastructure to fit.
I suspect the number of fuel forecourts will slowly decline, especially from urban environments while the number of charging stations will rise very rapidly. As consumers get used to having a better understanding of how they use their cars and as charging becomes fully ubiquitous then we will see a weakening of the current demand for biggest range EVs due to the massive cost and environmental advantages of sub 100 Mile EVs.
I don’t see petrol going away just declining as costs fall on EVs and more consumers change. I don’t really see the benefit of developing any alternative to petrol. And I think the biggest single game changer that will eventually come out of the blue and genuinely change everything will be a whole new way of storing electricity that will make Li batteries redundant over night.
98elise said:
A Porsche research vehicle has managed a 400kw charge rate which added 100km range in 3 minutes.
https://newsroom.porsche.com/fallback/en/company/p...
Careful the Tesla Boys will stamp their feet in frustration.... Seriously though innovation and alternatives are a good thing and its nice to see Porsche doing this https://newsroom.porsche.com/fallback/en/company/p...
DonkeyApple said:
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs.g.
Its Happening, in the same way as car manufacturers are not going to roll over because of Tesla neither are the Likes of BP or Shell, they will all be at it, including supermarkets its just energy supplying a way to make money. https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/electric-ch...
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleet-industry-ne...
Shell and Hydrogen https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-en...
Toaster said:
DonkeyApple said:
I’m not sure that petrol forecourts will transition to being charging points for EVs.g.
Its Happening, in the same way as car manufacturers are not going to roll over because of Tesla neither are the Likes of BP or Shell, they will all be at it, including supermarkets its just energy supplying a way to make money. https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/electric-ch...
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleet-industry-ne...
Shell and Hydrogen https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-en...
Tesla have built a fast charging network that has a similar structure to the way we refuel at motorway services but I see that as V1 and V2 will be the expansion of charging as a simple function of parking and operating in conjunction with the existing landlords.
Toaster said:
Careful the Tesla Boys will stamp their feet in frustration.... Seriously though innovation and alternatives are a good thing and its nice to see Porsche doing this
Putting a massive current into a cell will give you fast charging speeds, its physics.But putting a massive current into a cell consistently also massively speeds up degradation and internal resistance. I've seen no data from anyone whom has shown anything different.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
Tesla have by far the most real world data on how rapid charging affects longterm battery life.
Currently Tesla Superchargers delivery charge at roughly 1C, 350-400KW chargers are going to be delivering charge at 3-4C, thats a massive increase in energy.
Untill the likes of Porsche can show real life data charging at 3-4C has no impact on battery life I'm personally quite happy with 1C charging rates, knowing the battery will last well past 200K versus a pack which may fail by 100K.
Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 6th February 19:32
gangzoom said:
its physics.
[/footnote]
t is just physics chemistry and biology but how many people can actually explain the actual science of doing so. I suspect Panasonic have the data on the battery life and with developments innovation by others not just Tesla maybe just maybe that battery "damage" by fast charging may be improved. Toaster said:
I wish people would stop saying "its physics" as if no one realised this, having a st is just physics chemistry and biology but how many people can actually explain the actual science of doing so. I suspect Panasonic have the data on the battery life and with developments innovation by others not just Tesla maybe just maybe that battery "damage" by fast charging may be improved.
I hope your right, but physics is physics. I've seen no published scientific literature on improving battery degradation with rapid charging.t is just physics chemistry and biology but how many people can actually explain the actual science of doing so. I suspect Panasonic have the data on the battery life and with developments innovation by others not just Tesla maybe just maybe that battery "damage" by fast charging may be improved. If you want the science it's all there, Nature is publishing massive amounts of stuff on battery tech, but the fundamental problem of battery degradation due to high discharge/recharge states is something I've not seen anyone solve, certainly not a the mass production level. If you have seen an article suggesting otherwise please sign post it, as I would love to read it.
https://www.nature.com/subjects/batteries
Lets not also forget 400KW is over 500bhp of sustained power - That is not a trivial amount of power to generate/deliver, let alone cool. Anyone who's been in a Tesla charging at 100KW will tell you how much energy is needed to keep the battery cool, I recon a 787 dreamliner cabin is quiter than a Tesla cabin when all the fans are going full whack. Thinking about the combustion car equivalent, how much cooling a BMW M5 requires, infact how long do you think a M5 engine would last if you kept it WOT?? Am not sure it would last anything close to 10 minutes if your really keeping it at max revs constantly for that long??
Currently these 350-400KW charger are as practically deliverable in the real world as Hydrogen fuel cell cars. As tech demos that are fine, but tech demos are usually decades away from mass adoption. I remember watching an epsiode of 'Tomorrows world' where they showed off OLED panels back in the early 1990s, yet it wasn't until last year I finally got an OLED panel TV sitting in the living room.
Tesla delivered their first Roadster in 2008, and over 10 years the improvement in Lithium-ion cells capacity has been quite frankly modest at best - The EPA range rating of the Roadster is 244 miles, almost exactly the same the iPace/eTron/Kona. There 'may' be something better coming in 2020, but the cost of production of the actual cells certainly will not be cheap.
But one thing is very clear, what ever challenges there are around EV battery development/rapid charging, it pales into insignificance with the challenges faced trying to deliver a fuel which needs to be stored at 10,000 PSI!!
Edited by gangzoom on Wednesday 6th February 21:17
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