Discussion
sambucket said:
That's an interesting perspective I have not heard before. Is this an impression of yours, or based on a study of some kind? How did you arrive at confidence in this theory, I'm guessing, is my question.
Just my opinion for now but is probable given that global population growth will drive so many decisions in the future. Only time will tell. Phil. said:
Ignore ‘long term’ and focus on ‘global scale’. There is no way battery power is going to replace fossil fuels for vehicle numbers on an equivalent scale to meet the needs of a growing global population. Either vehicle numbers per head of population will have to reduce (make travel by car more expensive) or countries will not adopt EV completely.
I think the problem with your analysis is that it is based on an extrapolation of current battery tech. Current batteries have very low specific energy densities when compared to fossil fuels. But this will improve, in line with the massive investment being made around the world. And recycling of materials will also likely become an even more important factor to aid future sustainability.So I wouldn't be so certain with your conclusions just yet.
Toaster said:
jjwilde said:
Phil. said:
If this is not feasible then I am more persuaded to go for hydrogen once the filling stations become available.
https://www.topspeed.com/cars/hydrogen-cars/ke4485...
https://www.hydrogencarsnow.com/index.php/home-hyd...
https://www.electrans.co.uk/cmb-worlds-first-hydro...
so I wouldn't take the piss just yet
It's very inefficient to produce
It has to be stored at massive pressures
It leaks out of everything
It needs an entirely new infrastructure
The tanks only last about 10-12 years
The drivetrain is too expensive to be commercially viable
Fuel cells are not suited to sudden changes in demand (ie acceleration)
It's not that quick to fill up.
There is a reason every manufacturer other then Toyota are heading towards BEV. Toyota will switch within a few years.
DonkeyApple said:
It would be interesting whether it did. The reality is that all these massive, premium EVs aren’t exactly eco friendly in reality. I suspect that smaller lightweight cars with light drive trains and little petrol engines could clear 100mpg easily and be more environmentally friendly than either current ICE or EV.
If we don’t get to vastly cheaper batteries and very big charging infrastructures quickly enough then such a car will be an extremely obvious choice for covering the massive and most polluting bottom end of the market. The uncomfortable truth being that we could have made this change decades ago and yet here we are today with the chosen tax steer of EVs still all a bit of a non entity and toys for the affluent. It could be decades before they are cheap enough for the true masses and making a genuine impact to air quality.
By some studies, a small, efficient petrol engine is very close to the environmental footprint, over a lifetime, of a Tesla Model S.If we don’t get to vastly cheaper batteries and very big charging infrastructures quickly enough then such a car will be an extremely obvious choice for covering the massive and most polluting bottom end of the market. The uncomfortable truth being that we could have made this change decades ago and yet here we are today with the chosen tax steer of EVs still all a bit of a non entity and toys for the affluent. It could be decades before they are cheap enough for the true masses and making a genuine impact to air quality.
Except that no one looking to buy a Tesla Model S is considering a Ford Fiesta.
A large electric SUV isn't an icon of efficiency in production, but over a lifetime it is significantly more efficient than a comparable model that someone might be considering. And locally it is hugely less polluting.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I think the problem with your analysis is that it is based on an extrapolation of current battery tech. Current batteries have very low specific energy densities when compared to fossil fuels. But this will improve, in line with the massive investment being made around the world. And recycling of materials will also likely become an even more important factor to aid future sustainability.
So I wouldn't be so certain with your conclusions just yet.
Have you visited Africa or another emerging economy with little infrastructure? I have spent time in Nigeria and Cameroon. No way will they be using EV’s on any scale in your lifetime. So I wouldn't be so certain with your conclusions just yet.
Phil. said:
Have you visited Africa or another emerging economy with little infrastructure? I have spent time in Nigeria and Cameroon. No way will they be using EV’s on any scale in your lifetime.
So rather than invest in local energy generation through solar and wind... They should create a brand new hydrogen economy? Durp.Evanivitch said:
So rather than invest in local energy generation through solar and wind... They should create a brand new hydrogen economy? Durp.
You obviously haven’t visited emerging regions or you wouldn’t have responded as you did. Most people there are focused on surviving day to day not investing in EV infrastructure. But who knows what the future holds?Why call me a ‘durp’ when we are having a debate of reasonable opinions? Do you have a problem with someone having a different view to you? If so then you might be best avoiding PH for a while.
Phil. said:
You obviously haven’t visited emerging regions or you wouldn’t have responded as you did. Most people there are focused on surviving day to day not investing in EV infrastructure. But who knows what the future holds?
You're right, I haven't, which is why I'm still pretty certain that requiring them to use what little clean water they may have and inefficiently use what little electricity they may have is a stupid idea. Durp.sambucket said:
Curious to why you think Africa won't embrace EV? China is obviously investing big in various countries in Africa, and they are by far the leaders in WV vehicles. A quick google suggests a healthy enthusiasm for EVs in cameroon.
Let's not forget EVs don't have to big. Electric scooters and micro cars are cheap and sell well in China already.
Lots of developing countries are investing in EV infrastructure. India for example just announced new EV tax incentives.
Honestly Phil, I'm starting to think your opinion is not entirely grounded in experience. Care to elaborate a little on your experience of EVs in Africa?
Honestly Sam, I think you are trying to goad me. I have explained I am offering a personal opinion that you are welcome to ignore. Feel free to do the same and back up your statements with evidence of your ‘experience’. Let's not forget EVs don't have to big. Electric scooters and micro cars are cheap and sell well in China already.
Lots of developing countries are investing in EV infrastructure. India for example just announced new EV tax incentives.
Honestly Phil, I'm starting to think your opinion is not entirely grounded in experience. Care to elaborate a little on your experience of EVs in Africa?
Evanivitch said:
You're right, I haven't, which is why I'm still pretty certain that requiring them to use what little clean water they may have and inefficiently use what little electricity they may have is a stupid idea. Durp.
Who said it’s a decision between EV and Hydrogen. Not me. I said it’s unlikely that emerging regions will adopt EV’s on any scale in the near future. I notice you are a paid up member of the EV club with your state of the art Vauxhall Ampera. I hope you enjoy your feeling of driving and environmental superiority on a daily basis
Phil. said:
Have you visited Africa or another emerging economy with little infrastructure? I have spent time in Nigeria and Cameroon. No way will they be using EV’s on any scale in your lifetime.
I don't want to get into a pissing contest, but the answer to your first question is yes, extensively. As to your second point, that's a different issue and one I wasn't rebutting.Phil. said:
Who said it’s a decision between EV and Hydrogen. Not me. I said it’s unlikely that emerging regions will adopt EV’s on any scale in the near future.
You actually said in this lifetime. Which is a big difference to near future.You also said that batteries were only a stepping stone, so I guess the question is stepping stone to what?
Phil. said:
I notice you are a paid up member of the EV club with your state of the art Vauxhall Ampera. I hope you enjoy your feeling of driving and environmental superiority on a daily basis
Only half paid up, I die a little inside everytime my (Corsa derived) range extender fires up. Should I get a stainless Cat Back for it?sambucket said:
Phil. You are a f
kwit.
Sam, based on your recent posts you are obviously committed to buying an EV through your company and this is prevalent in your thinking at the moment. EV’s are obviously your holy grail. It seems this dominates your consideration of alternative views on EV’s to the point of massive over frustration, as demonstrated above. I therefore suggest you take timeout or perhaps anger management therapy kwit. 
A bunch of solar and an energy storage system (battery or water etc) is far far simpler and cheaper to install in some remote african village than a hydrogen plant which would need an energy source anyhow.
Boils down to hydrogen's basic problem, you need energy first, and turning it into hydrogen and then storing it is expensive and has terrible efficiency.
It makes even less sense for Africa than it does for Europe or Japan.
Boils down to hydrogen's basic problem, you need energy first, and turning it into hydrogen and then storing it is expensive and has terrible efficiency.
It makes even less sense for Africa than it does for Europe or Japan.
sambucket said:
Phil. said:
Honestly Sam, I think you are trying to goad me. I have explained I am offering a personal opinion that you are welcome to ignore. Feel free to do the same and back up your statements with evidence of your ‘experience’.
Phil. You are a fkwit. k all money in Africa and that the Chinese are there to strip it of its natural resources. It will indeed be a very long time before you see EVs taking off there even though they have enough sunlight and land to charge for free they simply don’t have the wealth. And that’s before we get to the fact that EVs have only sold in countries where the government have backed them and given incentives. Africa is a political basket case and the only flow of money from governments is out to private Swiss bank accounts.
I’ve libed out there and worked in various parts of Africa. It’s a joke continent of exploitation, theft, corruption and waste.
DonkeyApple said:
I think Phil understands that there’s fk all money in Africa and that the Chinese are there to strip it of its natural resources. It will indeed be a very long time before you see EVs taking off there even though they have enough sunlight and land to charge for free they simply don’t have the wealth.
And that’s before we get to the fact that EVs have only sold in countries where the government have backed them and given incentives. Africa is a political basket case and the only flow of money from governments is out to private Swiss bank accounts.
I’ve libed out there and worked in various parts of Africa. It’s a joke continent of exploitation, theft, corruption and waste.
That’s my experience over several decades. k all money in Africa and that the Chinese are there to strip it of its natural resources. It will indeed be a very long time before you see EVs taking off there even though they have enough sunlight and land to charge for free they simply don’t have the wealth. And that’s before we get to the fact that EVs have only sold in countries where the government have backed them and given incentives. Africa is a political basket case and the only flow of money from governments is out to private Swiss bank accounts.
I’ve libed out there and worked in various parts of Africa. It’s a joke continent of exploitation, theft, corruption and waste.
I think Dyson has missed the boat , uber style aircraft are the future
https://lilium.com/newsroom-detail/lilium-reveals-...
they are talking about manhattan to jfk for 70 dollars and heathrow to central london for 55 pounds
300 km range at 300kph
https://lilium.com/newsroom-detail/lilium-reveals-...
they are talking about manhattan to jfk for 70 dollars and heathrow to central london for 55 pounds
300 km range at 300kph
I chatted to someone recently who is working on the Dyson EV. He was ass deep in NDA and wouldn't give up much, but I did get the impression not everyone in the company is happy the boss is betting the farm on the car. James Dyson is quite old so not much to lose! But hints of Musk in there. Not even his employees really believe he will pull it off! YOLO!
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