EV sales in UK fall for 1st time

[Witchfinder]

FurtiveFreddy said:

Hybrids are just a stop gap to BEVs, so it seems less people want to buy them and would rather buy BEVs.

It's the reason I'm leasing at the moment, and will lease my first EV next year. The tech is changing so fast, and the incentives and penalties are unclear. I'd be very nervous taking a big 4 year finance agreement on a diesel car right now, not knowing if I would be able to sell it on in 2023/24.

[Terminator X]

When will the taxpayer stop subsidizing them? Might drop away then too. Oh and when leccy prices go through the roof because fuel sales are dropping, that might hurt it too.

TX.

[BMW330enut]

WonkeyDonkey said:

Weren't a lot of the hybrids from the German manufacturer just a company car tax dodge?

Dont think I knew anyone who ever plugged in their 330e!

Only due to owners not being able to claim back charging costs.

[FurtiveFreddy]

BMW330enut said:

Only due to owners not being able to claim back charging costs.

Claim back what? It's got a 7kW battery FFS!

[Frimley111R]

sjg said:

Well that's one way to put it, and rather different to my take.

Proper battery EV sales for June are up over 60% on June last year, now past 1% market share (was 0.6% a year ago), and that's despite very limited supply, popular models like the Leaf and Zoe about to get updates, and only a few hundred Model 3s registered before the end of the month.

PHEV is just about halved, again mostly supply related. Things like the Golf and Passat GTEs were available a year ago, now they're not (new Passat is coming). 3 series is refreshed and new 330e not available till next month. i3 went from mostly REX sales to a larger capacity battery-only version. Mercedes were doing plug-in hybrid C E and S class a year ago, now they're not and replacements not here yet. Ioniq is due a refresh, as is the Outlander.

The car sites have "best plug in hybrids 2019" type articles up and you literally can't buy half of them. Much of the market is premium SUVs to dodge things like ULEZ.

SMMT break down figures for non-plug-in hybrids - HEV (like the Prius) and MHEV (the mild 48v hybrids). Add them together and we've gone from 9675 to 10350.

All together, BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV have gone from 6.6% of the market to 6.7%.

figures here: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...

Edited by sjg on Thursday 4th July 12:49

Edited by sjg on Thursday 4th July 12:56

Well indeed yes, but you're not a journo desperately trying to generate content that will fool people into reading it or the SMMT who love a bit of PR and drama if they get a mention...

[sjg]

It's bonkers. The JLR news piece on the radio this morning about them setting up for making new electric models in the West Mids was "despite falling electric car sales". Nope, they're after one of the healthiest and fastest growing parts of the market!

[kambites]

Terminator X said:

When will the taxpayer stop subsidizing them?

When they're cheap enough that people will buy them without subsidies, obviously.

[Frimley111R]

kambites said:

Terminator X said:

When will the taxpayer stop subsidizing them?

When they're cheap enough that people will buy them without subsidies, obviously.

From a charger viewpoint they said they will review charger subsidies when they have reached 300,00 a year and they were, IIRC, at about 220,000 last year. As an installer I hope they stop them tomorrow as the paperwork is ridiculously complex for us as we claim all the grants for home installs on behalf of the homeowners and that means 16 pages of forms plus images etc and if we get one letter wrong they throw it all out for resubmission!

As with many government subsidies, they could stop any time.

[jjwilde]

kambites said:

When they're cheap enough that people will buy them without subsidies, obviously.

But we subsidise the oil industry too? And it's subsidised FAR more than the electric car industry ever will be. So if anything less oil subsidy and more for electric.

[dreamcracker]

The public will continue to buy used petrol & diesel vehicles for decades to come, unless electric becomes cost effective.

[HTP99]

Frimley111R said:

kambites said:

Terminator X said:

When will the taxpayer stop subsidizing them?

When they're cheap enough that people will buy them without subsidies, obviously.

From a charger viewpoint they said they will review charger subsidies when they have reached 300,00 a year and they were, IIRC, at about 220,000 last year. As an installer I hope they stop them tomorrow as the paperwork is ridiculously complex for us as we claim all the grants for home installs on behalf of the homeowners and that means 16 pages of forms plus images etc and if we get one letter wrong they throw it all out for resubmission!

As with many government subsidies, they could stop any time.

At least you are able to re-submit, if you screw up the car grant application then it's tough; one shot and that's it.

[sjg]

sjg said:

Well that's one way to put it, and rather different to my take.

Proper battery EV sales for June are up over 60% on June last year, now past 1% market share (was 0.6% a year ago), and that's despite very limited supply, popular models like the Leaf and Zoe about to get updates, and only a few hundred Model 3s registered before the end of the month.

PHEV is just about halved, again mostly supply related. Things like the Golf and Passat GTEs were available a year ago, now they're not (new Passat is coming). 3 series is refreshed and new 330e not available till next month. i3 went from mostly REX sales to a larger capacity battery-only version. Mercedes were doing plug-in hybrid C E and S class a year ago, now they're not and replacements not here yet. Ioniq is due a refresh, as is the Outlander.

The car sites have "best plug in hybrids 2019" type articles up and you literally can't buy half of them. Much of the market is premium SUVs to dodge things like ULEZ.

SMMT break down figures for non-plug-in hybrids - HEV (like the Prius) and MHEV (the mild 48v hybrids). Add them together and we've gone from 9675 to 10350.

All together, BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV have gone from 6.6% of the market to 6.7%.

figures here: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...

Edited by sjg on Thursday 4th July 12:49

Edited by sjg on Thursday 4th July 12:56

July figures now out, 2271 BEVs sold for now 1.4% of market share, up 158% on a year ago. Don't think that includes Tesla as they're not a SMMT member.

PHEV down nearly 50% again on previous July - as above, still very little availability. Don't think any 330e have been delivered yet. More BEV than PHEV sold in July. Not sure it will ever recover with the new BIK rates kicking in.

Diesel down over 22%, petrol slightly up.

All electrified (BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV) now 8.4% of the market, up from 6.7.

Interesting to watch this shift month by month.

[HTP99]

ZOE sales will be falling dramatically soon, there is a new one at the end of the year and as of last Friday there were only circa 100 new ones in locator with no more being built which leaves 3-4 months of no ZOE being registered.

[Frimley111R]

coldel said:

ICE will be priced off the roads

It sort of is already. EVs are so much cheaper than ICE vehicles. IMO the main challenge to ownership is the range of desirable and available cars available to buyers

[Dave Hedgehog]

dreamcracker said:

The public will continue to buy used petrol & diesel vehicles for decades to come, unless electric becomes cost effective.

Or until they are banned, which will happen sooner than later

[kambites]

Dave Hedgehog said:

dreamcracker said:

The public will continue to buy used petrol & diesel vehicles for decades to come, unless electric becomes cost effective.

Or until they are banned, which will happen sooner than later

It's wouldn't be politically viable to ban used internal combustion vehicles until there's so few of them on the road so as to make it pointless. They might get banned from city centres, but I can't see them being banned from the roads completely.

[bigdog3]

kambites said:

It's wouldn't be politically viable to ban used internal combustion vehicles until there's so few of them on the road so as to make it pointless. They might get banned from city centres, but I can't see them being banned from the roads completely.

There are enough ways of attacking the ICE car owner to make a ban unnecessary. ICE will be simply become impractical and expensive. Death by a thousand cuts is an effective strategy.

[LasseV]

bigdog3 said:

There are enough ways of attacking the ICE car owner to make a ban unnecessary. ICE will be simply become impractical and expensive. Death by a thousand cuts is an effective strategy.

Nope. ICE cars are so competitive that they will sell well next decade or so even tho they are heavily taxed. Petrol cars will never lose to battery cars, they still have so much problems. High purchasing costs is one big problem. Hydrogen cars will kill ICE cars eventually, it just takes some time.

[SidJames]

FurtiveFreddy said:

BMW330enut said:

Only due to owners not being able to claim back charging costs.

Claim back what? It's got a 7kW battery FFS!

Yup. Pennies.

Got £2k back on private fuel use as I used electric for short runs.

[bigdog3]

LasseV said:

bigdog3 said:

There are enough ways of attacking the ICE car owner to make a ban unnecessary. ICE will be simply become impractical and expensive. Death by a thousand cuts is an effective strategy.

Nope. ICE cars are so competitive that they will sell well next decade or so even tho they are heavily taxed. Petrol cars will never lose to battery cars, they still have so much problems. High purchasing costs is one big problem. Hydrogen cars will kill ICE cars eventually, it just takes some time.

Agreed battery cars have major drawbacks and there are alternative low carbon solutions using ICE. But the BEV juggernaut has gathered unstoppable momentum. Dogma tells us BEV is the answer regardless of the facts. Contradict that at your peril