Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Tuna]

hyphen said:

coetzeeh said:

Thats true - however YOY Q3 USA sales for Tesla flat at 46k units so is the Y cannibalising Model 3 sales?

Imagine so - its the latest Tesla. Who now wants to be seen in a 3!

Plus SUV.

It's what I suspected, but this year makes all analysis rather difficult. Still rather bad news if your new model was meant to double demand rather than just move it around.

[anonymous-user]

I passed a M3 on the road recently, jeez what a cheap looking car. If you didn't know what it was you would think low budget korean.

[hyphen]

Tuna said:

It's what I suspected, but this year makes all analysis rather difficult. Still rather bad news if your new model was meant to double demand rather than just move it around.

Y may have higher margins though?

[Tuna]

hyphen said:

Y may have higher margins though?

For sure, it's the model they wish they launched with, but they need exponential growth, not better margins.

[Gandahar]

Richard-D said:

Dave_Rich said:

He is a seriously damaged individual and not someone to have any sort of personal relationship with.

Thank you for the advice. I'm going to block his mobile phone number and will also set his emails to go straight to the junk folder.

Good idea, then he can't call you a pedo when you have spent ages trying to do some good rescuing people underground ....

[Gandahar]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

By the time Tesla get around to releasing their cheap car, everyone will already have a cheap ev

I don't get why that is funny?

Look at Apple, losing so much money because they don't do a cheaper phone.

Apple sales are up massively this year thanks to ...

their cheaper phone ...

The new iphone12 has ... a cheaper phone in the line up ....

It's a bad idea to compare Apple to Tesla though because Apple are a monopoly in it's own ecosystem, whereas Tesla has to fight in the big bad world.

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 14:38

[Gandahar]

It's that time of the quarter again, can Tesla blow the analysts out of the water with their sales and profits, or revenue and earnings ?

Last quarter, thanks to a big handout from FIAT again on energy credits, they made a $105m profit on $6b revenues

Wall Street estimates the revenues will go up from $6 to $8.4b and profits from $104m to $450-500m.

That will be the biggest profit ever for Tesla, past the $311m in 2018 by a long way.

Note that they are getting 2x the amount of energy credits this year compared to last from FIAT.

Let's see. Given they sold 140k cars this quarter compared to 90k last I am not sure how that increase can give a 5x increase in profits, especially as they reduced the price of the S and Y.

It will be interesting to see how the solar side does this quarter, I expect energy storage to do well and solar generation to be flat, that is their Achilles heal so far.

I think $450-500m profits this quarter is nuts ... but then what do I know, I am normally wrong on the quarterly results for Tesla.

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 14:38

[Gandahar]

Dark cloud ahead for Tesla?

No, not the fact they have reduced their warranty

https://electrek.co/2020/10/19/tesla-slashes-used-...

nor because of this

https://electrek.co/2020/10/19/tesla-admits-design...



but perhaps because, and this has slipped under the radar on most sites, Tesla is not selling full capacity in China, and so going to flog off them in Europe.

The interesting question is why Tesla cannot sell the factory capacity in China, China has bounced back from Covid :-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54594877

Maybe Chinese don't want to buy USA anymore?

[Gandahar]

And here is why GF3 needs to over produce cars rather than under produce

https://www.autonews.com/china/tesla-pay-china-323...

$320m tax per year plus $400m per year capex over 5 years from 2023.

So they won't be able to ship cheap cars to Europe with those overheads , so GGF ( German Gigafactory) needs to be up and running with it's expensive workforce and high overheads by then

Why didn't Tesla do like the Germans do and build german autoplants in Eastern Europe?

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 14:51

[Tuna]

Gandahar said:

Why didn't Tesla do like the Germans do and build german autoplants in Eastern Europe?

I was under the impression it is because Tesla prioritises extracting state aid and other government support for new factories?

[ZesPak]

Gandahar said:

Why didn't Tesla do like the Germans do and build German autoplants in Eastern Europe?

East Germany is still pretty poor, and as mentioned, some nice government bonuses were to be found.

I think it'll be funny though. The car that get's berated most for it's build quality might actually be able to label itself as "built in Germany".
Can't wait for German car magazines giving that a spin .

Jes, jes, theij sjoud hab built it in Polland ja. Fiel bitter kwaalitie.

Edited by ZesPak on Wednesday 21st October 15:24

[Burwood]

Gandahar said:

It's that time of the quarter again, can Tesla blow the analysts out of the water with their sales and profits, or revenue and earnings ?

Last quarter, thanks to a big handout from FIAT again on energy credits, they made a $105m profit on $6b revenues

Wall Street estimates the revenues will go up from $6 to $8.4b and profits from $104m to $450-500m.

That will be the biggest profit ever for Tesla, past the $311m in 2018 by a long way.

Note that they are getting 2x the amount of energy credits this year compared to last from FIAT.

Let's see. Given they sold 140k cars this quarter compared to 90k last I am not sure how that increase can give a 5x increase in profits, especially as they reduced the price of the S and Y.

It will be interesting to see how the solar side does this quarter, I expect energy storage to do well and solar generation to be flat, that is their Achilles heal so far.

I think $450-500m profits this quarter is nuts ... but then what do I know, I am normally wrong on the quarterly results for Tesla.

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 14:38

They probably will make 500M, maybe even 70 cents per share (600M) but it's all tax credits which are falling and will be nothing soon enough. On a GAAP non tax credits basis it's another loss is my guess.

[Gandahar]

Tuna said:

Gandahar said:

Why didn't Tesla do like the Germans do and build german autoplants in Eastern Europe?

I was under the impression it is because Tesla prioritises extracting state aid and other government support for new factories?

That's short sighted in the long run, especially if you just managed to get another $4b out of a share issue recently after pumping the market.

[Gandahar]

ZesPak said:

Gandahar said:

Why didn't Tesla do like the Germans do and build German autoplants in Eastern Europe?

East Germany is still pretty poor, and as mentioned, some nice government bonuses were to be found.

I think it'll be funny though. The car that get's berated most for it's build quality might actually be able to label itself as "built in Germany".
Can't wait for German car magazines giving that a spin .

Jes, jes, theij sjoud hab built it in Polland ja. Fiel bitter kwaalitie.

Edited by ZesPak on Wednesday 21st October 15:24

German car magazines on cars are almost as biased as German magazines on tyres, especially when it comes to Continental

Oh well.

[Tuna]

Gandahar said:

That's short sighted in the long run, especially if you just managed to get another $4b out of a share issue recently after pumping the market.

Isn't it the case that until relatively recently the majority of Telsa's infrastructure expansion was funded heavily though subsidy and grant capture? This has been a common theme with most of Musk's businesses. Why pay for your own growth if you can get someone else to pay for you?

[Gandahar]

Burwood said:

Gandahar said:

It's that time of the quarter again, can Tesla blow the analysts out of the water with their sales and profits, or revenue and earnings ?

Last quarter, thanks to a big handout from FIAT again on energy credits, they made a $105m profit on $6b revenues

Wall Street estimates the revenues will go up from $6 to $8.4b and profits from $104m to $450-500m.

That will be the biggest profit ever for Tesla, past the $311m in 2018 by a long way.

Note that they are getting 2x the amount of energy credits this year compared to last from FIAT.

Let's see. Given they sold 140k cars this quarter compared to 90k last I am not sure how that increase can give a 5x increase in profits, especially as they reduced the price of the S and Y.

It will be interesting to see how the solar side does this quarter, I expect energy storage to do well and solar generation to be flat, that is their Achilles heal so far.

I think $450-500m profits this quarter is nuts ... but then what do I know, I am normally wrong on the quarterly results for Tesla.

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 21st October 14:38

They probably will make 500M, maybe even 70 cents per share (600M) but it's all tax credits which are falling and will be nothing soon enough. On a GAAP non tax credits basis it's another loss is my guess.

It's hard to guess but my figure is $150-$220m profit.

Who knows though? That's the problem with Tesla, nobody has a clue quarter on quarter,


They sold 91k vehicles in Q2. 140k vehicles in Q3 ... So you might think that their Q2 profit of $105m might be multiplied by 1.40/ 91 so giving a profit of $150-180m ... but that's just maths...

If they hit $500m profit I will doff my hat.

[Gandahar]

Tuna said:

Gandahar said:

That's short sighted in the long run, especially if you just managed to get another $4b out of a share issue recently after pumping the market.

Isn't it the case that until relatively recently the majority of Telsa's infrastructure expansion was funded heavily though subsidy and grant capture? This has been a common theme with most of Musk's businesses. Why pay for your own growth if you can get someone else to pay for you?

He's the ultimate salesman.

He has delivered on SpaceX up to now, and Tesla is better than most one man shows. Credit where credit is due.

[Burwood]

Gandahar said:

Tuna said:

Gandahar said:

That's short sighted in the long run, especially if you just managed to get another $4b out of a share issue recently after pumping the market.

Isn't it the case that until relatively recently the majority of Telsa's infrastructure expansion was funded heavily though subsidy and grant capture? This has been a common theme with most of Musk's businesses. Why pay for your own growth if you can get someone else to pay for you?

He's the ultimate salesman.

He has delivered on SpaceX up to now, and Tesla is better than most one man shows. Credit where credit is due.

No question it's a very interesting and well executed business but forgetting the stock split it hit 2,500 per share when they were struggling at 350 not long before. I personally think the stock is going to get a hiding

[Tuna]

Burwood said:

No question it's a very interesting and well executed business but forgetting the stock split it hit 2,500 per share when they were struggling at 350 not long before. I personally think the stock is going to get a hiding

There are a lot of true believers holding stock, I suspect, so the valuation will be kept until the promise of jam tomorrow is dashed. A lot of people are dreaming of world domination in 2025, so unspectacular results in 2020 will easily be overlooked.

[Burwood]

Tuna said:

Burwood said:

No question it's a very interesting and well executed business but forgetting the stock split it hit 2,500 per share when they were struggling at 350 not long before. I personally think the stock is going to get a hiding

There are a lot of true believers holding stock, I suspect, so the valuation will be kept until the promise of jam tomorrow is dashed. A lot of people are dreaming of world domination in 2025, so unspectacular results in 2020 will easily be overlooked.

It’s all going to end badly. I’m not sure when within 2-3 years but it’s going to