Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

gangzoom said:

Have you actually seen the footage of the AP rewrite, remarkable doesn't describe it.

I've been very critical of Tesla been able to deliver on FSD, but Musk seem to be delivering. I've just filled in a W-8 form so I can go ahead and actually get some Tesla stock. FSD is going to change the way we view personal transportation, been able to do it without complex sensors like Lidar and using a CPU that isn't much bigger than a Chromebook is the scalable in a way the Waymo demo cars just aren't.

Though I fear am probably too late on the Tesla stock already, I suspect its going to rocket up from this point. Oh well at least I have a car with FSD all paid for, so life isn't that bad .

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319149428091932674

Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 22 October 08:37

In the shots that have been shared so far of the re-write, I'm not seeing what everyone else is seeing, it appears.

After years of development, three hardware revisions and a complete re-write, they've got a system that can achieve (hesitant) positioning on empty, visually uncluttered and clearly marked streets. In the dark! This is not FSD.

I quote from Tesla's release notes:

Tesla said:

It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent.

This is so completely not FSD, it's a joke. It may lead to FSD years down the road, but this is not FSD.

Seems more like Emperor's new clothes.

[Tuna]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

There is a point where the timing with respect to earnings calls begins to look positively fraudulent.

[coetzeeh]

Not to mention the absence of legislation that would allow FSD.

[Greggsybabe]

Tuna said:

There is a point where the timing with respect to earnings calls begins to look positively fraudulent.

I'd say we were a few years past begin. A Tesla quarterly earnings call without a breakthrough on FSD/Batteries sometime during the same week are rare events. At least Elon hasn't told us about how Solar Roofs and FSD mean that your car will pay for itself and be an appreciating asset. Maybe he's saving that for the summer months.

Good to see their Environmental Credit's business thriving though!

[hyphen]

The well known Taiwanese company Foxconn have designed their own EV platform. Fiat Group and other car manufacturers apparently in talks to use it.

Hardware and software.

Also says they will have a solid state battery for the platform by 2024...

https://insideevs.com/news/449468/automotive-indus...

[anonymous-user]

hyphen said:

The well known Taiwanese company Foxconn have designed their own EV platform. Fiat Group and other car manufacturers apparently in talks to use it.

Hardware and software.

Also says they will have a solid state battery for the platform by 2024...

https://insideevs.com/news/449468/automotive-indus...

Veeeery interesting. I wonder if this more collaborative strategy will triumph?

That's because of the transferability of technology and the overlap of tech across sectors. We've seen it with the tech in a car dashboard, with systems from third party providers like TomTom, Apple and Android.
The motors, people like Siemens, for example. The batteries LG, Panasonic.
All chiselling away at their speciality (with knowledge and efficiency shared from their work in other sectors), the carmaker focusing on all the rest and bringing it all together.
I see that little Riversimple are proposing quite a collaborative approach.

Or carmakers try to do as much in-house in an attempt to gain advantage.

[Burwood]

hyphen said:

The well known Taiwanese company Foxconn have designed their own EV platform. Fiat Group and other car manufacturers apparently in talks to use it.

Hardware and software.

Also says they will have a solid state battery for the platform by 2024...

https://insideevs.com/news/449468/automotive-indus...

I read that a couple of days ago. They are a seriously capable organisation with huge resources. Great for the consumer. The SS Battery is key to affordable EVs in 10 years. At 2.5X the density of existing cells you can have more range or a smaller battery, less weight and more efficiency.

[jjwilde]

I'm sitting watching the Tesla FSD videos which owners are posting and it's pretty amazing so far, how people on this thread can say it's 'nothing' or a joke is beyond me.

It's the best self driving car I've seen so far, show me a better one which the public can own/use.

[anonymous-user]

jjwilde said:

I'm sitting watching the Tesla FSD videos which owners are posting and it's pretty amazing so far, how people on this thread can say it's 'nothing' or a joke is beyond me.

It's the best self driving car I've seen so far, show me a better one which the public can own/use.

Self driving is decades away.

[jhoneyball]

From Road&Track:

"For a while, Tesla was the talk of the auto industry, but there were serious doubts over if it could be consistently profitable. With the company reporting a fifth straight quarterly profit yesterday, though, those doubts are evaporating. As Automotive News reports, Tesla made $331 million in Q3 of 2020, delivering nearly 140,000 cars globally. Tesla says it's still aiming to hit its goal of delivering 500,000 cars this year. "

[Burwood]

jjwilde said:

I'm sitting watching the Tesla FSD videos which owners are posting and it's pretty amazing so far, how people on this thread can say it's 'nothing' or a joke is beyond me.

It's the best self driving car I've seen so far, show me a better one which the public can own/use.

It's level 3.5. FSD is level 5. When can i hire out my Tesla, send it round to someones house and send them out on a trip. And have the car return to base. It's a decade away.

The current state of play. Snow on the road=fail. Bit of flooding=fail. Most complex road works=fail. It's a gimmick at present and honestly, i await the youtube crash videos.

[Burwood]

jhoneyball said:

From Road&Track:

"For a while, Tesla was the talk of the auto industry, but there were serious doubts over if it could be consistently profitable. With the company reporting a fifth straight quarterly profit yesterday, though, those doubts are evaporating. As Automotive News reports, Tesla made $331 million in Q3 of 2020, delivering nearly 140,000 cars globally. Tesla says it's still aiming to hit its goal of delivering 500,000 cars this year. "

That's a non accountants take on it. An accountant would say, Tesla earned $400M before tax rebates, $800M after tax rebates, gave it's CEO $500M in bonus shares (paid for my shareholders) and left shareholders $331M. Next quarter they will give Musk another $500M and the next, and the next.

[Tuna]

jjwilde said:

It's the best self driving car I've seen so far, show me a better one which the public can own/use.

The whole point is that the "best self driving car" is still miles off being safe enough or good enough. It's not that others are necessarily better (though there are some very impressive demos by the competition), it's that no-one is in a position to offer full self driving. At all.

I can show you a video of a guy throwing knives at a carnival, every one misses his assistant. That does not mean it is now safe for everyone to throw knives. That's where we're at with self driving at the moment. It's an impressive trick, it is not remotely ready for general use.

[Heres Johnny]

Burwood said:

It's level 3.5. FSD is level 5. When can i hire out my Tesla, send it round to someones house and send them out on a trip. And have the car return to base. It's a decade away.

The current state of play. Snow on the road=fail. Bit of flooding=fail. Most complex road works=fail. It's a gimmick at present and honestly, i await the youtube crash videos.

Its not even level 3.5, its level 2

The tipping point to even start discussing level 3 is when the car starts taking responsibility for part of the driving. Its not, for a host of reasons including legisslative and insurance etc, not to mention its still glitchy using Musks own warnings and no body would sign it off as being capable of running without the driver being accountable and ready to override.

[lothianJim]

Just like 0-60 in 3.1 is an impressive trick? Perhaps... but if people are willing to pay for it, that’s the important thing.

Anyone who doesn’t think Tesla’s FsD biz isn’t worth a few billion a year at the very least... has been smoking too much doob. Imo

You can raise your own bar as high as you like. But if people pay for it. That’s the real bar.

[Dave_Rich]

lothianJim said:

Just like 0-60 in 3.1 is an impressive trick? Perhaps... but if people are willing to pay for it, that’s the important thing.

Anyone who doesn’t think Tesla’s FsD biz isn’t worth a few billion a year at the very least... has been smoking too much doob. Imo

You can raise your own bar as high as you like. But if people pay for it. That’s the real bar.

Absolutely correct.

You know what FSD stands for right ?

This is not full self driving, it is a very successful con.

How long has Musk been promising now ? I lose count.

[Tuna]

lothianJim said:

Just like 0-60 in 3.1 is an impressive trick? Perhaps... but if people are willing to pay for it, that’s the important thing.

Anyone who doesn’t think Tesla’s FsD biz isn’t worth a few billion a year at the very least... has been smoking too much doob. Imo

You can raise your own bar as high as you like. But if people pay for it. That’s the real bar.

We can test that - is it the thing that's selling their cars at the moment? Remember they're valued at 500bn... a "few billion a year" is the square root of nothing.

[anonymous-user]

Most people don't have an extra £6K to spunk on a toy feature.

The vast majority of people just want an affordable and reliable car.

The whole electric and self driving scenarios are completely different technologies and on completely different development paths. The way Musk is combining the two and using autonomy as a selling point is ridiculous.

[off_again]

Tuna said:

In the shots that have been shared so far of the re-write, I'm not seeing what everyone else is seeing, it appears.

After years of development, three hardware revisions and a complete re-write, they've got a system that can achieve (hesitant) positioning on empty, visually uncluttered and clearly marked streets. In the dark! This is not FSD.

I quote from Tesla's release notes:

Tesla said:

It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent.

This is so completely not FSD, it's a joke. It may lead to FSD years down the road, but this is not FSD.

Nah, I agree too.... take a look at the screenshot:



Ah, but its beta... cry those who want it to be real. Yeah, its beta, just like its been beta for the last 4-5 years. Tick Tock, nearly at the end of 2020 and we were promised 1m robotaxis on the road....

But he didnt say that, right?

https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/musk-ro...

Nah, he did.... multiple times! And lets not forget that older cars need upgrades, some of which cant be upgraded etc etc.

And ultimately, there is absolutely NO legal or legislative support for driver-less cars on the public roads. Yes, in some states in the US, you can apply for a TEMPORARY license to operate a test program on a limited number of cars. But this is under extremely close supervision by the relevant legal bodies and it can get pulled at any time for any reason - and its NOT open to the public. So yeah, full self driving is thing, right?

That said, and to counter my own arguments - its coming, regardless of what we think about it. But I would say is that things are changing, and fast. California has been the heart of the EV shift and a massive Tesla customer region, for obvious reasons. However, with all of the tech giants here moving to a work from home strategy for the foreseeable future, if not permanent, does the key use case really matter? As in the commute to work on congested freeways in California? The traffic is actually still quite light still and certainly not as bad as before. Now those who work in the tech sector and are key Tesla buyers and early adopters arent commuting and probably wont for some time. Do you need FSD to take you to the local strip mall? Or the 3 miles to the local supermarket and back? Or is this not really going to hit the mark since society is changing?

And for those who work normal jobs and still need to commute? Are they in a position to drop $46k + taxes on a new Model 3 to get this? Some might, but for many, its a luxury that they dont need and cant afford. Nice tech showcase, but lets see what the demand is in a years time. I work for a tech company and we are still 100% remote and will remain so until June 2021 with an expectation of 25% of people returning to offices in 2021 at some point, according to local restrictions. While it wont affect everyone, it will affect many of the early adopters and its going to be interesting to see what happens.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Seems a bit strange to me that we have seen so few videos of the new beta release FSD.

Is it just these two accounts that have posted original content so far?

https://twitter.com/brandonee916
https://twitter.com/teslaownersSV

Surely the beta release is rolling out to more people than that? Maybe today more people will start posting their experience, but if it stays at just two people, it seems a little suspicious.