Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
And because I am bored and avoiding work - lets assume FSD remains at $8000 (its going up to $10k for the 'next gen' version, but hey free money right?).
Average Uber cost for a trip in the US in 2019 (2020 is a dumpster fire) was approx $25
Thats 320 trips. Or 160 two way trips. Or 3 two way trips per week. How about that, for the same price as FSD, you could use someone elses car, get picked from where ever you are, dropped exactly where you need 3 times per week for the same price. Or how about how about going out via Uber, getting drunk and getting a free ride home every Saturday for 3 years.....
And drop that amount of money on Uber and you get a whole ton of rewards, money back, free rides and Uber Eats stuff! You would even get priority pickups and upgrades!!! Bloody hell, I am selling this to myself at the moment! Sounds brilliant! Or I could have some iffy beta release of software that still isnt released and has no legal framework for operation anywhere.....
Getting pissed and taken home in an Uber while you have food delivered to get there when you arrive sounds like a brilliant idea!
And yes, the irony isnt lost on me about Uber - they want self driving cars to make their business model work, but hey, still have drivers today!
Average Uber cost for a trip in the US in 2019 (2020 is a dumpster fire) was approx $25
Thats 320 trips. Or 160 two way trips. Or 3 two way trips per week. How about that, for the same price as FSD, you could use someone elses car, get picked from where ever you are, dropped exactly where you need 3 times per week for the same price. Or how about how about going out via Uber, getting drunk and getting a free ride home every Saturday for 3 years.....
And drop that amount of money on Uber and you get a whole ton of rewards, money back, free rides and Uber Eats stuff! You would even get priority pickups and upgrades!!! Bloody hell, I am selling this to myself at the moment! Sounds brilliant! Or I could have some iffy beta release of software that still isnt released and has no legal framework for operation anywhere.....
Getting pissed and taken home in an Uber while you have food delivered to get there when you arrive sounds like a brilliant idea!
And yes, the irony isnt lost on me about Uber - they want self driving cars to make their business model work, but hey, still have drivers today!
"And yes, the irony isnt lost on me about Uber - they want self driving cars to make their business model work, but hey, still have drivers today!"
That has to be the thought which can wrap up this thread......Tesla should buy Uber.
Uber gets self-driving taxis. Tesla gains a huge "in-house" market.
That has to be the thought which can wrap up this thread......Tesla should buy Uber.
Uber gets self-driving taxis. Tesla gains a huge "in-house" market.
off_again said:
And because I am bored and avoiding work - lets assume FSD remains at $8000 (its going up to $10k for the 'next gen' version, but hey free money right?).
Average Uber cost for a trip in the US in 2019 (2020 is a dumpster fire) was approx $25
Thats 320 trips. Or 160 two way trips. Or 3 two way trips per week. How about that, for the same price as FSD, you could use someone elses car, get picked from where ever you are, dropped exactly where you need 3 times per week for the same price. Or how about how about going out via Uber, getting drunk and getting a free ride home every Saturday for 3 years.....
And drop that amount of money on Uber and you get a whole ton of rewards, money back, free rides and Uber Eats stuff! You would even get priority pickups and upgrades!!! Bloody hell, I am selling this to myself at the moment! Sounds brilliant! Or I could have some iffy beta release of software that still isnt released and has no legal framework for operation anywhere.....
Getting pissed and taken home in an Uber while you have food delivered to get there when you arrive sounds like a brilliant idea!
And yes, the irony isnt lost on me about Uber - they want self driving cars to make their business model work, but hey, still have drivers today!
I dislike taxis because I don't like sharing a car with someone I don't know. I would pay more to have an empty car. My wife and son are the same. My daughter will not use taxis at all.Average Uber cost for a trip in the US in 2019 (2020 is a dumpster fire) was approx $25
Thats 320 trips. Or 160 two way trips. Or 3 two way trips per week. How about that, for the same price as FSD, you could use someone elses car, get picked from where ever you are, dropped exactly where you need 3 times per week for the same price. Or how about how about going out via Uber, getting drunk and getting a free ride home every Saturday for 3 years.....
And drop that amount of money on Uber and you get a whole ton of rewards, money back, free rides and Uber Eats stuff! You would even get priority pickups and upgrades!!! Bloody hell, I am selling this to myself at the moment! Sounds brilliant! Or I could have some iffy beta release of software that still isnt released and has no legal framework for operation anywhere.....
Getting pissed and taken home in an Uber while you have food delivered to get there when you arrive sounds like a brilliant idea!
And yes, the irony isnt lost on me about Uber - they want self driving cars to make their business model work, but hey, still have drivers today!
Tesla recalls 30,000 Model S and X due to suspension fault.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/23/tesla-recallingl-mo...
https://electrek.co/2020/10/23/tesla-recallingl-mo...
EddieSteadyGo said:
lothianJim said:
Tesla Raj just uploaded a test drive that looks ‘legit’.
That content is still I think from one of two accounts I mentioned earlier who say they have the beta software.Surely more than two cars have been given access to the beta??
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
andy43 said:
Just watched both. His earlier vid is in zero traffic in the dark, newer vid is more convincing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
I just watched that one too, some fascinating AI going on there. I'm suddenly really excited for this tech... but I'd still probably not pay for the option.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
I'm more interested in a geeky way as I'm a low level programmer, after seeing this I'm still sticking to my '5 years and these will be able to make most journeys without issue' prediction.
jjwilde said:
andy43 said:
Just watched both. His earlier vid is in zero traffic in the dark, newer vid is more convincing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
I just watched that one too, some fascinating AI going on there. I'm suddenly really excited for this tech... but I'd still probably not pay for the option.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
I'm more interested in a geeky way as I'm a low level programmer, after seeing this I'm still sticking to my '5 years and these will be able to make most journeys without issue' prediction.
The bit at 6:15 is what caught my eye too. The AI seems to have real presence, meaning it’s thinking more than a few seconds ahead.
I probably won’t pay for fsd either given I mostly drive for fun on rural B roads. But if I lived in a us city I could see myself buying this, today.
I really hope autopilot benefits from this rewrite, especially things like parked cars and straight ahead roundabouts. However AP could quite feasibly be frozen in time with all efforts going into fsd. Hope not.
The (two?) testers who are posting were likely cherry picked for their home turf and teasing social media style. The real beta testers are likely Tesla employees?
Will be a while before we see a RHD version.
I probably won’t pay for fsd either given I mostly drive for fun on rural B roads. But if I lived in a us city I could see myself buying this, today.
I really hope autopilot benefits from this rewrite, especially things like parked cars and straight ahead roundabouts. However AP could quite feasibly be frozen in time with all efforts going into fsd. Hope not.
The (two?) testers who are posting were likely cherry picked for their home turf and teasing social media style. The real beta testers are likely Tesla employees?
Will be a while before we see a RHD version.
jjwilde said:
I just watched that one too, some fascinating AI going on there. I'm suddenly really excited for this tech... but I'd still probably not pay for the option.
I'm more interested in a geeky way as I'm a low level programmer, after seeing this I'm still sticking to my '5 years and these will be able to make most journeys without issue' prediction.
Most companies do their testing on closed test sites where you are not allowed any cameras and have to sign NDA's. This tech has been used on these closed sites for decades. They are decades away still.I'm more interested in a geeky way as I'm a low level programmer, after seeing this I'm still sticking to my '5 years and these will be able to make most journeys without issue' prediction.
One day there will be one hell of a court case following a fatality during testing using the public as guinea pigs.
lothianJim said:
Some states have 14 year old learner permits. Is this much more hazardous?
Yes.I was driving on skid pans with police instructors when at school years before I could have a licence, I was flying aged 13 and flew solo at 16.
I'd trust a supervised kid no problem compared to the current self drive technology.
jsf said:
This tech has been used on these closed sites for decades. They are decades away still.
It was only 3 years ago Google showed the world AI networks learn quicker and better with no human input, Tesla have been using the same approach only for the last few years.So am not sure who has been developing better AI behind closed doors, or why you think its decades away.
Https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270
Edited by gangzoom on Friday 23 October 19:41
andy43 said:
Just watched both. His earlier vid is in zero traffic in the dark, newer vid is more convincing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
Ok, I am going to be a little more critical:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3iRHYIwjFKw
Look at 6.15 - from what I can tell from the UK it looks like it chooses the wrong lane that’s marked left and straight on, totally lost stuck behind a truck until it figures out the right lane is the, err, right lane for going right. Anymore traffic and it’d be stuck.
9 minutes in, sat a full cars length behind the rest of the stationary traffic, then gets left for dead from the lights doing low 20s in a 40 limit for the first stretch with the rest of the traffic off away and gone. Car behind won’t be impressed.
11.20 slows right down to 10mph as car in front pulls in. Human wouldn’t have risked that low a speed for fear of getting rear ended, you’d be judging the cars position, getting in close, even using the lane to the left to maintain speed.
It’s impressive, way way ahead of the current FSD just from the way it handles parked cars, but it’s still a long way off a self driving taxi.
Certainly the best self driver yet, but ‘full’ it is not. Interesting stuff!
Between 1 - 1:51 - seems to do a pretty good job, albeit at slow speeds. To be honest, a little too far to the center, but please note, in US driving, you are supposed to drive to the middle, NOT the curb. So probably fair. Oh, and that whole 'trash can identification' thing is valid here. You are supposed to put your bins to the side of the street. So identifying them is critical.
At around 1:51 - yeah, lane marker is there for a reason, its a solid white line that you shouldnt cross, unless its clear. It swings VERY wide there and while the camera cant move to show it, its too wide.
2:10 - seriously wide turn to the right. That is NOT good. Ok, so there is no traffic and a lot of other lazy drivers will cut corners, but seriously, this is supposed to be doing it correct, not the lazy version.
Ok, picky here, and the camera wont show this well, but technically at 2:49 stopping at the line, you are supposed to stop BEFORE the crosswalk marked lanes. Its a little too close and you would get a point against you on a driving test for that. Picky I know, but remember this is supposed to the best it can be. Oh and that turn it makes to the right - common in California - is absolutely the easiest that is possible. Protected right turns (as they are called) are the easiest and were introduced to reduce collisions. However, they are NOT so common in other states.
4:25 - summon to driver - yeah, thats super slow and you absolutely will get beeped at for that! Crawling through a parking lot at 1-2 MPH is not a good idea. Though, it did stop at the line, which is nice. And at 4:56 - did it really stop on the MARKED crosswalk? Could be a camera angle thing there, but thats not good. And specifically, you arent supposed to pull up close to one anyway, as you are supposed to make it safe for the pedestrians.
5:19 - Stops well ahead of the stop line. Actually, according to the CVC, you are supposed to come up to the line, but not ON the line. But its way too short and any driver behind will not be expecting that. Then it waits for the road to be clear and goes at 5:32, again it could be the camera angle, but seriously it seems to go over the double yellow lines - thats a driving violation.
5:57 - yeah, that not good, makes an incorrect selection of lane at that point. There is a cycle lane to the right and cars parked on the side, thats good, but it swerves into the hash marked section and then jerks back. No real risk at this point, its what is known as a protected cycle lane, but in other cities they dont have protections like this and thats not good lane discipline.
6:20 - yeah, again, VERY poor lane discipline. Split in the road with the protected cycle lane and right turn lane. It is the drivers responsibility to cross the protected cycle lane safely, and you are allowed to enter it to make the right turn, but seriously, its swerving all over the place and not sticking to the correct trajectory to get this right.
6:47 - that is TOTALLY wrong. The Ford Escape (Kuga in Europe) does it correct just before. The Ford safely crosses the protected cycle lane and pulls into the right turn lane, the Tesla on the other hand (note indicators on for a right turn) gets this TOTALLY wrong. They are in the wrong lane - its clearly marked at straight or left ONLY, but then pulls up behind the pickup, misses the right turn lane and then shuffles over. Lets see this happen in rush hour and its going to be a complete disaster! But like I mentioned, The Escape gets it right, but the Tesla gets this whole thing VERY wrong.
6:53 - yeah, driving in a protected cycle lane is allowed at and just before a junction, but if there are cyclists, they have right of way, and they are not going to be happy with you blocking it or getting in the way. I know the FSD system does now detect cyclists, which is good, but they have the right here, NOT the car, hence the right turn lane. Also, if you hit a cyclist in a protected cycle lane, its YOUR fault, not theirs.
7:04 - interesting. You MUST stop at a stop sign or red light for turning right. But, you are allowed to inch forward to get a better view of the road. But you must stop at or before the line. So pretty clever that it will stop and obey the sign / light and then inch forward. Also, please note that failure to stop at a sign is a moving violation - almost all drivers will not come to a complete stop, but not stopping is all that a Police officer needs to pull you over.
10:00 - Mmm, why move to the center lane? Yeah, everyone does that, but unless there is a reason, you should stay in the right hand lane. And yes, Americans and Californias in particular, are terrible at lane discipline, but what happens when the middle lane is taken up with Tesla's on FSD? The other two lanes get free access and people just drive themselves past.... yeah, odd.
10:45 - right lane turns into a right turn, so maybe it gets over early, but I would love to see it cope with this in rush hour. Its carnage normally.
13:27 - yeah, I might be wrong here, but is that a stop sign on the right? Sure looks like one to me! That is NOT a normal 'traffic circle' as they are known here.
13:39 - definately camera angle here, but as it exits the roundabout, sure as hell looks like it is on the wrong side of the road there!!!
14:30 - thats the summon footage from earlier from the outside - seriously? On the wrong side of the road? Yeah, thats not going to go down well with people in the parking lot for the store! See how far over it is? Crazy. And would your average driver take this into account when they are driving in the parking lot? Would they expect to see a car driving slowly into your lane? Probably wont of course, as it will just stop and wait until its clear, but thats not good either way!
So yeah, while the narrator likes to give a very optimistic view of what this is doing, it is FAR from close to what you would expect. And seriously, if a cop spotted you drive like that on the road, you would be pulled over. Traffic and moving violations, poor lane discipline and very odd driving in general - that is instant 'they are driving impaired' and an instant pull over and roadside check.
Its impressive and its clever, absolutely, but FSD? Yeah, not close yet. Oh, and yes, I know I am being super critical here. But if we are truly expecting this to be a 'safety' system and supposedly better than humans (that is how they are positioning it), then it really must be. We have to be very critical and we have to make sure it is the best it can be.
LincolnLovin said:
Uber still isn't available in my town, but I take your point.
I've just ordered a M3P with FSD, so I'm interested to see how this beta develops.
Without wishing to piss on your chips, I have a M3P and very glad I didn't order FSD. From the phantom braking, hesitation, inability to deal with simple traffic behaviours and misidentifying simple road layouts I would agree with others on this thread that proper FSD is a long long way off. Driving in the wet and dark as it stands makes autopilot very unpredictable as it is, a monumental jump in ability is needed to get anywhere near what I would call "self driving". Certainly in UK/EU I can't see this being allowed to truly self-drive within a decade. Elon's robotaxi concept is 20 years away minimum due to a combination of regulatory and capability issues.I've just ordered a M3P with FSD, so I'm interested to see how this beta develops.
I would wager that FSD will not come on this hardware - I don't think the cameras/processing power are genuinely up to the job. They would have to be significantly under-utilising the current processor to have the headroom it needs for software to make up the difference they will need.
off_again said:
So yeah, while the narrator likes to give a very optimistic view of what this is doing, it is FAR from close to what you would expect. And seriously, if a cop spotted you drive like that on the road, you would be pulled over. Traffic and moving violations, poor lane discipline and very odd driving in general - that is instant 'they are driving impaired' and an instant pull over and roadside check.
This is perhaps the biggest concern - that they have judged it sensible to release a potentially dangerous system for use by the public, who don't know enough about the software to understand where and when it might fail.A lot of people expect AI driven systems to be "obviously robotic", and so ascribe all sorts of human behaviour when it doesn't. The reality is that this sort of software can appear surprisingly natural in it's reactions, whilst also getting things very wrong.
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