Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Gandahar said:
That is the writing on the wall for Tesla if they keep that attitude into 2021 when more and more EVs come on stream.
They have always been a company more concerned with selling cars and getting quotas rather than support afterwards. That is their achilles heel.
I like the expression " From previous experience you will most likely eventually get a fault but that is what needs to happen before parts can be replaced"
So they know it's going to blow up, but rather than be preventative, they say just wait until it fecks up, then suffer ..
He has to just deal with it for now .
I don't think they used to be like this at all.They have always been a company more concerned with selling cars and getting quotas rather than support afterwards. That is their achilles heel.
I like the expression " From previous experience you will most likely eventually get a fault but that is what needs to happen before parts can be replaced"
So they know it's going to blow up, but rather than be preventative, they say just wait until it fecks up, then suffer ..
He has to just deal with it for now .
Back in the days of the S and the early days of the X, they were very customer focused. Test drives brought to your door. Rangers would arrive to fix your car. Cars were picked up for service and dropped back with you after. Service consultants that you could talk to to get things sorted were available on the phone.
Those days are long gone, sadly.
Nearly going bust in '18 changed Tesla. They looked to skim cost from anything that wasn't nailed down. Those services all went.
Rolling out the M3 changed them too - they have too many cars for their network to deal with.
Ironically, they are now one of the best capitalised car companies with super cheap financing costs. They should be using that to build brand loyalty, as the BEV competition is slowly but surely building. Instead, they seem to be engaging in a bizarre experiment to see the lowest level of service that their customer base will tolerate and are determined sit as close to or below that level as they can. Sadly, there are too many apologists for the company on social media, so Tesla probably think it's all good. They don't need to persuade the existing fans that defend them, they need to create new enthusiasts - and are doing a poor job of it IME.
It’s a bit of a postcode lottery. Edinburgh service is great IME. I just checked the app and next appointment is 3rd November.
Yes service lags production. Perhaps a reason why Tesla sometimes only comes second in customer satisfaction surveys...
Edited by lothianJim on Thursday 29th October 17:36
lothianJim said:
It’s a bit of a postcode lottery. Edinburgh service is great IME. I just checked the app and next appointment is 3rd November.
Yes service lags production. Perhaps a reason why Tesla sometimes only comes second in customer satisfaction surveys...
Or last (JD Power in June)Yes service lags production. Perhaps a reason why Tesla sometimes only comes second in customer satisfaction surveys...
lothianJim said:
It’s a bit of a postcode lottery. Edinburgh service is great IME. I just checked the app and next appointment is 3rd November.
Yes service lags production. Perhaps a reason why Tesla sometimes only comes second in customer satisfaction surveys...
It is Edinburgh who failed to properly PDI the car, and were giving the 3-week timescale to have it fixed.Yes service lags production. Perhaps a reason why Tesla sometimes only comes second in customer satisfaction surveys...
AstonZagato said:
Or last (JD Power in June)
That was a quality survey not satisfaction survey. My point was buyers love the cars despite the service faults and are not blind to them. Plus exclude the X from that survey and it’s a different story Smij no not him, but he did seem a lovely chap when I met him at the underground volcano training centre
Digga said:
Yet what chance of driving from one end of Birmingham to the other, on a busy rush hour when M6 and M5 are snarled up to buggery, without a band? I'd give it zero. No computer can compensate for the sort of random driving the real world throws up.
I find it crazy you think like this. Of course a computer will be able to do that. It will be able to do it within this decade.jjwilde said:
Digga said:
Yet what chance of driving from one end of Birmingham to the other, on a busy rush hour when M6 and M5 are snarled up to buggery, without a band? I'd give it zero. No computer can compensate for the sort of random driving the real world throws up.
I find it crazy you think like this. Of course a computer will be able to do that. It will be able to do it within this decade.My wifes car is pretty sophisticated. Active cruise with NAV to check for round about, corners, hills further up the road. Will steer and stay in lanes and recognise grass verges, kerbs etc. She hates it, doesn't trust it-waste of time for her. Pretty typical fear. I do use it but not if the kids are in the car as i'm not 100% confident
Burwood said:
jjwilde said:
Digga said:
Yet what chance of driving from one end of Birmingham to the other, on a busy rush hour when M6 and M5 are snarled up to buggery, without a band? I'd give it zero. No computer can compensate for the sort of random driving the real world throws up.
I find it crazy you think like this. Of course a computer will be able to do that. It will be able to do it within this decade.My wifes car is pretty sophisticated. Active cruise with NAV to check for round about, corners, hills further up the road. Will steer and stay in lanes and recognise grass verges, kerbs etc. She hates it, doesn't trust it-waste of time for her. Pretty typical fear. I do use it but not if the kids are in the car as i'm not 100% confident
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
AstonZagato said:
I don't think they used to be like this at all.
Back in the days of the S and the early days of the X, they were very customer focused. Test drives brought to your door. Rangers would arrive to fix your car. Cars were picked up for service and dropped back with you after. Service consultants that you could talk to to get things sorted were available on the phone.
Those days are long gone, sadly.
Nearly going bust in '18 changed Tesla. They looked to skim cost from anything that wasn't nailed down. Those services all went.
Rolling out the M3 changed them too - they have too many cars for their network to deal with.
Ironically, they are now one of the best capitalised car companies with super cheap financing costs. They should be using that to build brand loyalty, as the BEV competition is slowly but surely building. Instead, they seem to be engaging in a bizarre experiment to see the lowest level of service that their customer base will tolerate and are determined sit as close to or below that level as they can. Sadly, there are too many apologists for the company on social media, so Tesla probably think it's all good. They don't need to persuade the existing fans that defend them, they need to create new enthusiasts - and are doing a poor job of it IME.
Yep - they were the days. I think Larry Ellison joining the board also had something to do with it, Back in the days of the S and the early days of the X, they were very customer focused. Test drives brought to your door. Rangers would arrive to fix your car. Cars were picked up for service and dropped back with you after. Service consultants that you could talk to to get things sorted were available on the phone.
Those days are long gone, sadly.
Nearly going bust in '18 changed Tesla. They looked to skim cost from anything that wasn't nailed down. Those services all went.
Rolling out the M3 changed them too - they have too many cars for their network to deal with.
Ironically, they are now one of the best capitalised car companies with super cheap financing costs. They should be using that to build brand loyalty, as the BEV competition is slowly but surely building. Instead, they seem to be engaging in a bizarre experiment to see the lowest level of service that their customer base will tolerate and are determined sit as close to or below that level as they can. Sadly, there are too many apologists for the company on social media, so Tesla probably think it's all good. They don't need to persuade the existing fans that defend them, they need to create new enthusiasts - and are doing a poor job of it IME.
98elise said:
Why do you think it won't progress to Level 5?
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
The definition of level 5 is to be able to self drive in all situations. One blob of mud in the wrong place (or early morning condensation or any of the current physical reasons the car gives up at the moment) and the car can't autonomously drive and as a result, can't be level 5. Forget whether the capabilities of the car on a good day with good clean sensors etc mean it could, the reality in the real world means it won'tA few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
Those rockets landing on their tail aren't doing it in strong cross winds, in a blizzard or back on a launch pad. They're picking the conditions.
Anyway - I know there's other factors at play in the world right now but the shares are below $400 so the self driving beta release hasn't exactly excited the markets.
Heres Johnny said:
Anyway - I know there's other factors at play in the world right now but the shares are below $400 so the self driving beta release hasn't exactly excited the markets.
Never mind FSD - I'd be happy if they'd sort out the software in the screen on my Model3 so it doesn't need to be fully reset once every couple of weeks. Fair enough put all the controls and display on the screen, but it needs to be f
king reliable fi you're gonna do that.98elise said:
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
That's a simple engineering exercise to achieve, it just needed the reason to do it and then the engineering applied to achieve it.If the value of doing it wasn't there, it would be recovered in the same way as the old shuttle boosters.
Some of that value will be PR, some will be for solid engineering reasons.
It looks spectacular, but is a much simpler task than a self driving car or landing and then taking off on the moon some astronauts.
Order66 said:
Never mind FSD - I'd be happy if they'd sort out the software in the screen on my Model3 so it doesn't need to be fully reset once every couple of weeks. Fair enough put all the controls and display on the screen, but it needs to be fking reliable fi you're gonna do that.
I'm with Gordon Murray on this screen in cars thing, there is no place for them for any control system. I think they are bloody dangerous, just as dangerous as using your phone whilst driving.king reliable fi you're gonna do that.Heres Johnny said:
The definition of level 5 is to be able to self drive in all situations. One blob of mud in the wrong place (or early morning condensation or any of the current physical reasons the car gives up at the moment) and the car can't autonomously drive and as a result, can't be level 5. Forget whether the capabilities of the car on a good day with good clean sensors etc mean it could, the reality in the real world means it won't
Those rockets landing on their tail aren't doing it in strong cross winds, in a blizzard or back on a launch pad. They're picking the conditions.
Anyway - I know there's other factors at play in the world right now but the shares are below $400 so the self driving beta release hasn't exactly excited the markets.
The share price bounced off the 50 day average at $410 a few times this week but significant that is has now fallen through.Those rockets landing on their tail aren't doing it in strong cross winds, in a blizzard or back on a launch pad. They're picking the conditions.
Anyway - I know there's other factors at play in the world right now but the shares are below $400 so the self driving beta release hasn't exactly excited the markets.
$386 as I type.
98elise said:
Why do you think it won't progress to Level 5?
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
I am not underestimating the abilities of a couple of companies who are able to do this; its seriously impressive. However, this is a completely different scenario. It isnt a direct comparison with FSD though. Landing a booster rocket on a landing pad is a fully controlled scenario - the teams monitoring the systems get to control when and where they do this and they also get the opportunity to directly observe and manage it. When you get to control everything to that level, it does make it simpler.A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
FSD needs to operate in all conditions, weather, situations and with other drivers around them. Its very different and the variability involved in driving in bad weather with other drivers and unknown roads is where it is at. Given that FSD in its current form still struggles with some basic layouts, we are a long way out of getting it to be 'routine'.
98elise said:
Burwood said:
jjwilde said:
Digga said:
Yet what chance of driving from one end of Birmingham to the other, on a busy rush hour when M6 and M5 are snarled up to buggery, without a band? I'd give it zero. No computer can compensate for the sort of random driving the real world throws up.
I find it crazy you think like this. Of course a computer will be able to do that. It will be able to do it within this decade.My wifes car is pretty sophisticated. Active cruise with NAV to check for round about, corners, hills further up the road. Will steer and stay in lanes and recognise grass verges, kerbs etc. She hates it, doesn't trust it-waste of time for her. Pretty typical fear. I do use it but not if the kids are in the car as i'm not 100% confident
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
Didn't membership to early access program have monetary value at some point, or at least was offered as a bung to buyers annoyed about poor timing with price changes. So not only are people paying 5 or 10k for FSD right now, some are effectively paying to be beta testers also!
Tech stocks currently on a dive, I wonder how low it would go. 800 (in old money) seemed very toppy to me a few months ago and wouldn't be surprised to see that level again. What's the mlutiplier again, would that be 20% so 160?
Tech stocks currently on a dive, I wonder how low it would go. 800 (in old money) seemed very toppy to me a few months ago and wouldn't be surprised to see that level again. What's the mlutiplier again, would that be 20% so 160?
98elise said:
Why do you think it won't progress to Level 5?
A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
Artificial intelligence, like nuclear fusion, has been "just around the corner" for forty or fifty years now. It turns out that some problems aren't incrementally approached - they require a sudden, complete step change, that in those two cases we have failed to make despite thousands of people devoting entire lifetimes to them.A few years ago the notion of having a 20 story rocket landing on a pad or ship was science fiction, yet these days it's almost a matter of routine.
Machine learning (the statistical trick behind computer vision) can solve certain previously intractable problems, but it is not artificial intelligence. It can say "I see a car", but it doesn't know what a car is beyond a three letter word.
Level 5 self driving is very close to artificial intelligence. We've solved "foothill" problems - the full rewrite is a significant step closer to reliable scene analysis - but consistent decision making appears to be an entirely separate challenge. Landing rockets is a mechanical problem, being able to that does not mean we can magically solve completely different classes of problem. "Software" isn't all the same stuff, and it isn't something we do more and more of until it works.
UK October vehicles sales numbers are published.
141k car registrations for the month of which 9,300 were BEV.
BEV sales for the year to date at 76k vs 36k total in 2019.
Assuming "all other imports" are Tesla then 511 sold for the month of October (2700 sales Oct 2019)
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
141k car registrations for the month of which 9,300 were BEV.
BEV sales for the year to date at 76k vs 36k total in 2019.
Assuming "all other imports" are Tesla then 511 sold for the month of October (2700 sales Oct 2019)
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
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