Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[jjwilde]

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

[Burwood]

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

Just ordered a new Diesel car (SUV) for my wife. Would have gone for an EV or Hybrid but in the VAG segment which is what she wanted they only offered 2WD so had no choice.

[cailean]

VAG will change that soon.

[TheRainMaker]

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

What am I missing here?

[Burwood]

TheRainMaker said:

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

What am I missing here?

Quite. Most of these 'hybrids' don't have plugs and many of the ones that do are never plugged in. Diesel is here to stay for a very long time. At least until we see closer parity with BEV costs. The simple fact is that diesel suits proper SUV's which need torque. I'm not about to pay 15k more for the same format just because it's electric. Where's the sense in that.

It's frivolous to label diesel as evil when today it's the best option for many buyers.

[SWoll]

Burwood said:

TheRainMaker said:

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

What am I missing here?

Quite. Most of these 'hybrids' don't have plugs and many of the ones that do are never plugged in. Diesel is here to stay for a very long time. At least until we see closer parity with BEV costs. The simple fact is that diesel suits proper SUV's which need torque. I'm not about to pay 15k more for the same format just because it's electric. Where's the sense in that.

It's frivolous to label diesel as evil when today it's the best option for many buyers.

All of the BEV/PHEV have plugs, so getting very close to diesel sales (18k v 21k) and if you look at the change between 2019 and 2020 will certainly overtake diesel in the next 3-6 months, especially with the rapid increase in vehicle choice.

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

The torque figures and delivery of an EV are far superior to anything an ICE engine can offer so not sure as to your point there?

[rjg48]

TheRainMaker said:

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

What am I missing here?

You have to love the EV Forum, yet more none fact based opinion.

[Tuna]

SWoll said:

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

Why? The availability of the fuel isn't changing, and people don't buy secondhand cars to get the latest tech. My practical family estate is still a practical family estate, regardless of whether car companies are selling practical family estates or rocket ships.

[SWoll]

Tuna said:

SWoll said:

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

Why? The availability of the fuel isn't changing, and people don't buy secondhand cars to get the latest tech. My practical family estate is still a practical family estate, regardless of whether car companies are selling practical family estates or rocket ships.

Demand for new diesel cars will have halved by the end of the year compared to last year, why would demand for them as a used car in 3 years time not also have reduced even more dramatically with far more choice in used EV's available?

[rjg48]

SWoll said:

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

Good. Vile stuff and having never owned I couldn't really care less.

[jjwilde]

TheRainMaker said:

What am I missing here?

Ah sorry man, I should have said battery storage (not mild hybrid tho, I think they are a bit scammy).

[Tuna]

SWoll said:

Demand for new diesel cars will have halved by the end of the year compared to last year, why would demand for them as a used car in 3 years time not also have reduced even more dramatically with far more choice in used EV's available?

Basing anything off this year is going to be misleading, but I suspect that used EVs are going to be an interesting sell. The speed of technological change is going to have a much bigger effect on EVs than diesels, which are typically half the price new.

I get the religious fervour against them, but the ownership experience of a modern diesel is pretty clean. Having owned two diesels that between them reached 400,000 miles, the claims that (for an owner) they're 'dirty old machines' is pretty wide of the mark.

[Burwood]

SWoll said:

Burwood said:

TheRainMaker said:

jjwilde said:

Cars with plugs now easily outselling diesel. Amazing to see it happening. Die diesel die.

What am I missing here?

Quite. Most of these 'hybrids' don't have plugs and many of the ones that do are never plugged in. Diesel is here to stay for a very long time. At least until we see closer parity with BEV costs. The simple fact is that diesel suits proper SUV's which need torque. I'm not about to pay 15k more for the same format just because it's electric. Where's the sense in that.

It's frivolous to label diesel as evil when today it's the best option for many buyers.

All of the BEV/PHEV have plugs, so getting very close to diesel sales (18k v 21k) and if you look at the change between 2019 and 2020 will certainly overtake diesel in the next 3-6 months, especially with the rapid increase in vehicle choice.

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

The torque figures and delivery of an EV are far superior to anything an ICE engine can offer so not sure as to your point there?

You conveniently forgot to mention the lack of AWD. The iX3 is a mere 2WD. We and plenty other buyers want 4WD and I won't pay a huge premium to get it in EV format. All cars depreciate. if by huge you mean 'huge' over the expected I think that's nonsense. At worst it's a few K more so I'm still quids in.

It's a short list of 4WD SUV EVs. Can you name some?

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

SWoll said:

Diesel is a dead duck and anyone buying new now can expect huge depreciation over 3-4 years.

Why? The availability of the fuel isn't changing, and people don't buy secondhand cars to get the latest tech. My practical family estate is still a practical family estate, regardless of whether car companies are selling practical family estates or rocket ships.

Maybe in 15-20 years, not chance over 3-4 until EV become affordable in a big practical SUV package.

Can I get a used, premium, SUV, appx 5 years old as an EV for £15k? Nope, so I’ll stick with diesel for the foreseeable. (Granted there are a few MB hybrids that will be about that price / age when I next swap in 2/3 years).

When a little Honda e is £30k or a Model X (or Y, whichever the big one is) is £70k then for the vast majority of people that is out of budget.

[SWoll]

Tuna said:

SWoll said:

Demand for new diesel cars will have halved by the end of the year compared to last year, why would demand for them as a used car in 3 years time not also have reduced even more dramatically with far more choice in used EV's available?

Basing anything off this year is going to be misleading, but I suspect that used EVs are going to be an interesting sell. The speed of technological change is going to have a much bigger effect on EVs than diesels, which are typically half the price new.

I get the religious fervour against them, but the ownership experience of a modern diesel is pretty clean. Having owned two diesels that between them reached 400,000 miles, the claims that (for an owner) they're 'dirty old machines' is pretty wide of the mark.

I've done 100k+ miles in diesel over the past 5 years, they feel positively archaic in comparison and are horrible smelly things.

Typically half the price new? Can you provide examples of that as whilst I appreciate there is a price difference when measuring comparable vehicles I've not seen that level.

I'll assuming we'll now play the smallest engine, lowest spec ICE version vs a fully loaded EV game (because no-one cares about equipment or performance apparently) but hope to be surprised.

[SWoll]

Lord.Vader said:

Maybe in 15-20 years, not chance over 3-4 until EV become affordable in a big practical SUV package.

Can I get a used, premium, SUV, appx 5 years old as an EV for £15k? Nope, so I’ll stick with diesel for the foreseeable. (Granted there are a few MB hybrids that will be about that price / age when I next swap in 2/3 years).

When a little Honda e is £30k or a Model X (or Y, whichever the big one is) is £70k then for the vast majority of people that is out of budget.

What 5 year old premium SUV are you buying at the minute for £15k at 5 years old?

[Burwood]

SWoll said:

Tuna said:

SWoll said:

Demand for new diesel cars will have halved by the end of the year compared to last year, why would demand for them as a used car in 3 years time not also have reduced even more dramatically with far more choice in used EV's available?

Basing anything off this year is going to be misleading, but I suspect that used EVs are going to be an interesting sell. The speed of technological change is going to have a much bigger effect on EVs than diesels, which are typically half the price new.

I get the religious fervour against them, but the ownership experience of a modern diesel is pretty clean. Having owned two diesels that between them reached 400,000 miles, the claims that (for an owner) they're 'dirty old machines' is pretty wide of the mark.

I've done 100k+ miles in diesel over the past 5 years, they feel positively archaic in comparison and are horrible smelly things.

Typically half the price new? Can you provide examples of that as whilst I appreciate there is a price difference when measuring comparable vehicles I've not seen that level.

I'll assuming we'll now play the smallest engine, lowest spec ICE version vs a fully loaded EV game (because no-one cares about equipment or performance apparently) but hope to be surprised.

Not the slightest puff of smoke or smell from my wifes diesel even when floored. Mid sized SUV 4WD, what are the options in EV today?

[Tuna]

SWoll said:

I've done 100k+ miles in diesel over the past 5 years, they feel positively archaic in comparison and are horrible smelly things.

Typically half the price new? Can you provide examples of that as whilst I appreciate there is a price difference when measuring comparable vehicles I've not seen that level.

I'll assuming we'll now play the smallest engine, lowest spec ICE version vs a fully loaded EV game (because no-one cares about equipment or performance apparently) but hope to be surprised.

Price wise - our Skoda Estate (4WD, all the gizmos) cost ~20K from the dealer after a bit of haggling with delivery mileage. Prices appear to have gone up a bit in the last couple of years since we bought it, but not by much.

I'm not sure what EV you think is comparable in terms of load area, passenger capacity and towing, but please tell me what you'd buy?

[Smiljan]

To be honest, I don't know of many diesels that have ever had good residuals over 3-4 years from new. With some exceptions EV's are generally more expensive than similar category ICE cars new and don't depreciate as much.

If things stay that way a buyer looking for 3-4 year old cars will be faced with an even bigger price gap between similar spec/size EV and ICE cars which may in fact make diesels remain desirable for many years to come.

[SWoll]

Be useful if either of you gave specific details of the ICE cars for comparison rather than just Skoda estate/mid-sized SUV?