Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
SWoll said:
Lord.Vader said:
Maybe in 15-20 years, not chance over 3-4 until EV become affordable in a big practical SUV package.
Can I get a used, premium, SUV, appx 5 years old as an EV for £15k? Nope, so I’ll stick with diesel for the foreseeable. (Granted there are a few MB hybrids that will be about that price / age when I next swap in 2/3 years).
When a little Honda e is £30k or a Model X (or Y, whichever the big one is) is £70k then for the vast majority of people that is out of budget.
What 5 year old premium SUV are you buying at the minute for £15k at 5 years old?Can I get a used, premium, SUV, appx 5 years old as an EV for £15k? Nope, so I’ll stick with diesel for the foreseeable. (Granted there are a few MB hybrids that will be about that price / age when I next swap in 2/3 years).
When a little Honda e is £30k or a Model X (or Y, whichever the big one is) is £70k then for the vast majority of people that is out of budget.
BMW X5
That is the size / space I want, with that level of toys.
(Granted some flex 4/5/6/7 years old £15-20k, but no EV comes close, unfortunately, at the moment).
SWoll said:
Be useful if either of you gave specific details of the ICE cars for comparison rather than just Skoda estate/mid-sized SUV?
I'm giving you full latitude to pick any EV that has 4WD and an estate car load, poverty spec, so it shouldn't matter.Ours is a Skoda Octavia Scout. Not sure what the current prices are, but you're probably looking at around £25K, less with a bit of haggling.
Total ownership cost over 5 years for a certain annual mileage and travel profile is much more illustrative than purchase price alone.
I’ve just replaced a 2010 A4 Allroad (now at 300k kms and starting to cost buckets in maintenance) with a new Tesla Model 3 LR with a towbar. Big savings in (Swiss) road tax, insurance, maintenance, plus massive fuel/electricity cost difference, made it a no-brainer.
I do 25k kms a year, mostly between my Swiss house and an old farmhouse in Burgundy (150km away) at weekends. I can fast-charge on my own land at both properties. There are Tesla superchargers within 15km of each place.
If I need to carry anything bulky/dirty, I’ll tow it. I won’t ever need more space than 4 adults plus luggage, mostly just me, Mrs B and a cat. If I really need to drive 1000km a day across Europe with no fast chargers en route, I’ll rent a ICE vehicle for the duration.
If the Audi eTron, etc, had a similar range, performance, price, charging infrastructure, software, etc. I’d have bought one. But they don’t, so I didn’t :-)
I’ve just replaced a 2010 A4 Allroad (now at 300k kms and starting to cost buckets in maintenance) with a new Tesla Model 3 LR with a towbar. Big savings in (Swiss) road tax, insurance, maintenance, plus massive fuel/electricity cost difference, made it a no-brainer.
I do 25k kms a year, mostly between my Swiss house and an old farmhouse in Burgundy (150km away) at weekends. I can fast-charge on my own land at both properties. There are Tesla superchargers within 15km of each place.
If I need to carry anything bulky/dirty, I’ll tow it. I won’t ever need more space than 4 adults plus luggage, mostly just me, Mrs B and a cat. If I really need to drive 1000km a day across Europe with no fast chargers en route, I’ll rent a ICE vehicle for the duration.
If the Audi eTron, etc, had a similar range, performance, price, charging infrastructure, software, etc. I’d have bought one. But they don’t, so I didn’t :-)
Thought provoking tweet from paul g earlier.
Teslas aren't just electric cars, they're software cars. From the way legacy automakers phrase their announcements about switching to electric, it sounds like they still haven't grasped that.
Makes sense to me. It's the big differentiator for me, beyond electric vs ICE. The integration of software and hardware (including fsd) is unprecedented in a car that is available for me to buy.
Teslas aren't just electric cars, they're software cars. From the way legacy automakers phrase their announcements about switching to electric, it sounds like they still haven't grasped that.
Makes sense to me. It's the big differentiator for me, beyond electric vs ICE. The integration of software and hardware (including fsd) is unprecedented in a car that is available for me to buy.
Burwood said:
It's a short list of 4WD SUV EVs. Can you name some?
E-Tron, EQC, Volvo XC40 Recharge, iX3, Model Y (kinda), Nio ES5 and ES8. Also coming within the next couple of years: Mustang Mach E, Rivian R1S, Fisker Ocean, Byton M-Byte, VW ID.4, Porsche Macan, Nissan Ariya, Skoda Enyaq IV, Audi Q4 E-Tron, Hummer EV, Mercedes EQA, plus a bunch of others. It'll be a well served market pretty soon.Lord.Vader said:
Mercedes ML
BMW X5
That is the size / space I want, with that level of toys.
(Granted some flex 4/5/6/7 years old £15-20k, but no EV comes close, unfortunately, at the moment).
Have you added up the total cost of ownership of a five years old (circa 90k miles on the clock) X5 over, say three years and 30k miles? Taking into account everything - insurance, fuel, tyres and other consumables, tax, servicing, depreciation, and repairs? Just curious what your expected running costs are.BMW X5
That is the size / space I want, with that level of toys.
(Granted some flex 4/5/6/7 years old £15-20k, but no EV comes close, unfortunately, at the moment).
I don't think they are "software cars". That is hype to keep the share price plates spinning.
Most of what you are buying is hardware. The analogy is more like a laptop - you are buying the hardware which will be updateable but eventually needs junking.
I think other manufacturers get this too (e.g. I get OTA software updates (and new features) on my Range Rover).
Most of what you are buying is hardware. The analogy is more like a laptop - you are buying the hardware which will be updateable but eventually needs junking.
I think other manufacturers get this too (e.g. I get OTA software updates (and new features) on my Range Rover).
AstonZagato said:
Most of what you are buying is hardware. The analogy is more like a laptop - you are buying the hardware which will be updateable but eventually needs junking.
Tesla however have really disincentivized me from getting a new X with hardware retrofits too. If they didn't do the CCS charger retrofit eventually I would have to get another one as all the Superchargers become CCS only - I don't think any other manufacture have added additional DC charging standards post delivery. The MCU2/AP3 retrofit I've just had done has taken away another big reason for me to trade in for a new car.
The really big one is obviously the battery pack, Elon has always said in past Tesla would support S/Xs car with future battery upgrades, I personally doubt that as it would surely remove one of the other big reasons to buy a new S/X. We'll wait and see on that. If Tesla do start offering battery pack upgrades, I can see us keeping the car for a long long time to come, which ultimately if you believe in the idea of 'sustainable transport' is what we should be aiming for. Keeping older cars on the road for as long as possible, not finding reasons/excuses to buy new cars every few years.
lothianJim said:
Thought provoking tweet from paul g earlier.
Teslas aren't just electric cars, they're software cars. From the way legacy automakers phrase their announcements about switching to electric, it sounds like they still haven't grasped that.
Makes sense to me. It's the big differentiator for me, beyond electric vs ICE. The integration of software and hardware (including fsd) is unprecedented in a car that is available for me to buy.
What does a "software car" do? Honestly, I get that better integration between infotainment, navigation and vehicle management improves the experience, but I get in a car to go to the shops, or visit family, or get to work. For the vast majority of those trips, I need no software to help me. I get in the car, and drive where I want.Teslas aren't just electric cars, they're software cars. From the way legacy automakers phrase their announcements about switching to electric, it sounds like they still haven't grasped that.
Makes sense to me. It's the big differentiator for me, beyond electric vs ICE. The integration of software and hardware (including fsd) is unprecedented in a car that is available for me to buy.
It's like people who have an app to turn on the lights in their house - you can build clever "software houses" (and trust me, I've got direct experience of doing exactly this), that give you infinite flexibility, but it doesn't actually change how your house works. Walk into a room, turn the lights on, wake up in the morning to warm rooms. After a few weeks of fiddling with settings, you stop and just do what you always do in a house.
This stuff is interesting to people who want to constantly fiddle with settings, but the reality is that for most people, all they want is stuff to "just work" - and for a car "just working" involves get in car, drive car, listen to radio/podcast/whatever, stop car, get out. It's about as interesting as using a fridge. A "software car" doesn't change that equation.
Tuna said:
What does a "software car" do?
Tesla's problem is going to be supporting ageing hardware with continual software updates. They're kind of locked into it now. At what point do they say "we no longer provide updates for the Model S"?The other obvious problem is Google. With Android Automotive OS, they're going to have massive penetration with many different OEMs and a ready made base of Android loyalists and third party developers. Making your own car software is soon going to look pretty silly unless you're on the scale of MS, Apple, Facebook, or Google.
Witchfinder said:
Burwood said:
It's a short list of 4WD SUV EVs. Can you name some?
E-Tron, EQC, Volvo XC40 Recharge, iX3, Model Y (kinda), Nio ES5 and ES8. Also coming within the next couple of years: Mustang Mach E, Rivian R1S, Fisker Ocean, Byton M-Byte, VW ID.4, Porsche Macan, Nissan Ariya, Skoda Enyaq IV, Audi Q4 E-Tron, Hummer EV, Mercedes EQA, plus a bunch of others. It'll be a well served market pretty soon.Edited by Burwood on Saturday 7th November 21:46
Burwood said:
How much lol. 60k minimum vs? Case closed
You can get a brand new E-Tron for under £50k today. The Enyaq will certainly be under £40k even with AWD. Any EV will save a fortune in fuel, tax, and maintenance.What's the price for a halfway decent AWD diesel SUV these days?
Witchfinder said:
Burwood said:
How much lol. 60k minimum vs? Case closed
You can get a brand new E-Tron for under £50k today. The Enyaq will certainly be under £40k even with AWD. Any EV will save a fortune in fuel, tax, and maintenance.What's the price for a halfway decent AWD diesel SUV these days?
t. Can you buy the enyaq today?nope. I’ll make it easy. 2021 MY Tiguan 150 TDI( rline). Loaded in white as per broad speed 31.5k . Loaded as I just read with advanced active drive tech. Pretty much all the fruit. Case closed
Burwood said:
It’s a good thing I know. The best deal is 53k on an Etron with poverty spec. And they’re a bit st. Can you buy the enyaq today?nope.
I've got an E-Tron 50, and it's an excellent car, certainly better than that rattly diesel st. Can you buy the enyaq today?nope. tbox you just recommended. A Tiguan? Really? Hardly in the same league.Here's a link to a dealer selling brand new E,-Tron 50s for under £49.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
The Enyaq will be available to order in a few months, and will work out far cheaper to own than a Tiguan.
Edited by Witchfinder on Saturday 7th November 22:25
Witchfinder said:
Burwood said:
It’s a good thing I know. The best deal is 53k on an Etron with poverty spec. And they’re a bit st. Can you buy the enyaq today?nope.
I've got an E-Tron 50, and it's an excellent car, certainly better than that rattly diesel st. Can you buy the enyaq today?nope. tbox you just recommended.Here's a link to a dealer selling brand new E,-Tron 50s for under £49.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
Witchfinder said:
I've got an E-Tron 50, and it's an excellent car, certainly better than that rattly diesel stbox you just recommended. A Tiguan? Really? Hardly in the same league.
Here's a link to a dealer selling brand new E,-Tron 50s for under £49.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
The Enyaq will be available to order in a few months, and will work out far cheaper to own than a Tiguan.
Jam tomorrow? What a surprise.tbox you just recommended. A Tiguan? Really? Hardly in the same league.Here's a link to a dealer selling brand new E,-Tron 50s for under £49.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/new...
The Enyaq will be available to order in a few months, and will work out far cheaper to own than a Tiguan.
This is the usual goalpost moving. We were discussing whether pragmatically chosen diesels would suddenly loose all their value overnight, and bang, we're back in the argument that if you want all the bells and whistles, you end up paying a premium price. We know that - that was the reason Tesla started with the S and X. Premium prices hide the high costs of EV components.
As it is, if you can already get 10K off a brand new E-Tron, I'd be concerned on the depreciation in a few year's time when the next gen comes out.
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