Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Burwood said:
jamoor said:
ZesPak said:
I don't subscribe to the insane stock price, as I've stated many times before.
I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
Europeans fade into irrelevance.I only responded as you made some insane claims to the other end. Like the endless claim "company X could take notice, swoop in and clear tesla off the board overnight". Haven't heard that one before.
On top of that you clearly stated we shouldn't compare the phone market to the car market. But then you do it.
So tell us the rules, wise guy. Can we compare the EV market to the Smartphone market?
As much as there are Tesla fans, there are blind haters as well.
And, Zespak, the two things that link the phone market and the car market are tech (in Tesla's case anyway) and fanboys (especially in Tesla's case!)
The fanboys love the tech. That's what they go for, beyond the car's other features. They queue overnight for the latest, slightly different phone model. They are willing to pay extra for a car because it has an FSD system that don't really work safely yet and isn't yet legally approved.
But beyond that there's no comparison in overall product function, product price-point and product lifecycle.
Cars won't go the way of the phone because their primary functions are so very different, no matter how much tech, like gimmicky fart noises, the manufacturer tries to load into the car.
anonymous said:
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I appreciate the fact that they are not identical. But it's hard to overlook the similarities in terms of disruption. Of course, because of the product lifecycle and infrastructure, it won't go as fast as the smartphone market did in ~2010.Anyway, it was Tuna that decided that now was the time to compare Tesla to Nokia.
anonymous said:
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All the whoopie cushion function is is something hat people like you remember as a talking point., not why owners are such fans of the cars.ZesPak said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I appreciate the fact that they are not identical. But it's hard to overlook the similarities in terms of disruption. Of course, because of the product lifecycle and infrastructure, it won't go as fast as the smartphone market did in ~2010.Anyway, it was Tuna that decided that now was the time to compare Tesla to Nokia.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
All the whoopie cushion function is is something hat people like you remember as a talking point., not why owners are such fans of the cars.The whole 'disruption' thing is so short-term.
We have companies developing cars to answer the specific question of CO2. Without that question, and the free money, they wouldn't have existed. It's uncertain if they're really offering a decent answer to the question anyway.
Electric cars are full of benefits but also compromises. It's not as if they're a magic product that's brought onto the market that blow the existing products away in any real, practical and tangible terms. What can an electric car do that an ICE car cannot? What new beneficial possibilities do they really offer the driver?
Disruption would be a colour touchscreen against others with a green dot matrix screen with buttons in a fashion and convenience driven world. Disruption would be added music and media playing ability against just making calls. Offering something that's new and additional, making the product do more than the others.
There's no longer any 'disruption' in the phone market. It's now got to the stage where phones are getting bigger, memory is expanding, cameras are getting better, but looking less interesting. There's nothing of note that's new, just enhancements of what already exists.
The electric car industry will reach the point where it's in no way disrupting anything else but disruption will come from within, specifically with battery energy densities and charging speeds, or who can make them cheaper, but not much else.
Edited to add - desirability too. It seems people like Nio, XPeng and Lucid seem to be offering a car that feels so much nicer to be sat in and so much more interesting to look at. This will definitely disrupt Tesla by either forcing them to up their game in the styling department or by squeezing their share of the market.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 24th December 10:27
I don't think the phone comparison works at all.
Apple were successful because existing smartphones were not particularly good and the iphone was a massive improvement. It was also not much more expensive due to the clever tie-ups Apple had with the US phone providers - the US market is where Apple really has a large market share.
Cars today, however, are very good, even the rubbish ones.
Any EV does require some additional inconvenience, particularly with regards to charging and all the old arguments about how, when, and how long it takes to charge.
This continues to apply to all EVs today, even Teslas, though it is, of course lessening all the time as infrastructure continues to improve, along with the cars themselves.
The only real advantage that an EV has over an ICE car is fuel cost, but this is offset usually by a higher purchase price.
The other advantage some EVs have is fast acceleration, though that is a non-issue for most people - I have had my Golf for three years now, and can count on one hand the number of times I've put the pedal to the metal. Where I live, there's simply no point. Most of my overtaking is done on my bicycle!
It's easy enough for an existing car manufacturer to make an EV (a big part thanks to Tesla), and it makes sense for them to be getting into this now as the aforementioned infrastructure is now getting into place, along with billioins of State funding. Proof of this is in Hyundai and Nissan-Renault's offerings.
The only real similarity between Apple and Tesla is that they have both gone for the US Market. The Model 3's main competitiors are the Japanese Sedans (Camry, Accord, Altima etc) that represent a huge chunk, not the tiny "Compact Executive" Segment containing BMWs and Audis etc). These sedans can cost almost as much as a Model 3, and including running costs, they are comparable.
Should Tesla get significant traction cross the USA in this segment, it will do ok, but much remains to be seen as to whether the Japanese can or will respond. Toyota are well placed with billions of miles of data from their hybrids, I'm not so sure about Honda, though.
As for the rest of the world, it's a very different picture. VW sells 8.6% of its cars in the USA:https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2020/01/volkswagen-group-records-higher-deliveries-in-2019.html
It's stronghold is, of course, Europe where I expect it will continue to dominate the market with their EV offereings as they transition of ver the next 10-15 years.
I think there is a big Euro-centric slant to discussions on here (it's a UK site for the most part) and people tend to view VW as the largest player, but that's not true at all worldwide.
Anyway, I hope some of that makes sense. Enjoy!
Apple were successful because existing smartphones were not particularly good and the iphone was a massive improvement. It was also not much more expensive due to the clever tie-ups Apple had with the US phone providers - the US market is where Apple really has a large market share.
Cars today, however, are very good, even the rubbish ones.
Any EV does require some additional inconvenience, particularly with regards to charging and all the old arguments about how, when, and how long it takes to charge.
This continues to apply to all EVs today, even Teslas, though it is, of course lessening all the time as infrastructure continues to improve, along with the cars themselves.
The only real advantage that an EV has over an ICE car is fuel cost, but this is offset usually by a higher purchase price.
The other advantage some EVs have is fast acceleration, though that is a non-issue for most people - I have had my Golf for three years now, and can count on one hand the number of times I've put the pedal to the metal. Where I live, there's simply no point. Most of my overtaking is done on my bicycle!
It's easy enough for an existing car manufacturer to make an EV (a big part thanks to Tesla), and it makes sense for them to be getting into this now as the aforementioned infrastructure is now getting into place, along with billioins of State funding. Proof of this is in Hyundai and Nissan-Renault's offerings.
The only real similarity between Apple and Tesla is that they have both gone for the US Market. The Model 3's main competitiors are the Japanese Sedans (Camry, Accord, Altima etc) that represent a huge chunk, not the tiny "Compact Executive" Segment containing BMWs and Audis etc). These sedans can cost almost as much as a Model 3, and including running costs, they are comparable.
Should Tesla get significant traction cross the USA in this segment, it will do ok, but much remains to be seen as to whether the Japanese can or will respond. Toyota are well placed with billions of miles of data from their hybrids, I'm not so sure about Honda, though.
As for the rest of the world, it's a very different picture. VW sells 8.6% of its cars in the USA:https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2020/01/volkswagen-group-records-higher-deliveries-in-2019.html
It's stronghold is, of course, Europe where I expect it will continue to dominate the market with their EV offereings as they transition of ver the next 10-15 years.
I think there is a big Euro-centric slant to discussions on here (it's a UK site for the most part) and people tend to view VW as the largest player, but that's not true at all worldwide.
Anyway, I hope some of that makes sense. Enjoy!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
agreedanonymous said:
[redacted]
No toxic gasses when inside/confined spaces, possibility of generating your own energy and on a larger scale not be dependent on OPEC. Not having to stop at a petrol station ever again. Great traction thanks to much easier torque vectoring, better packaging for more practicality and safety. Possibly lower TCO in the future. There are probably some more I'm forgetting.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yet plenty of phones did that before the iPhone?As for the downsides, smartphones were expensive and fragile compared to what we had. On top of that you had to plug them in EVERY NIGHT.
.First driver-less delivery service approved in California.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55438969
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55438969
hyphen said:
Mustang Mach E reviews out today.4/5 by Telegraph journo.
Detroit is coming.
Overall solid reviews from almost all outlets that I have seen. Not amazing, but a solid good to very good. Couple that with dealers, potential close relationship that dealers have with key customers and a familiar name and access to repairs etc - I think it will sell well. Initially at first. The big question, from my view, is if it will keep selling. Detroit is coming.
I would absolutely buy one if I was in the market.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Non AMP version: https://en.pingwest.com/a/8154Not too sure what to make of that article. Isn't that the whole reason Tesla opened up in China? So they could do what everyone else does and make things cheaper at a cost to others.
Tuna said:
jjwilde said:
So predictions, are Tesla going to meet their 500,000 car target for this year? It looks like they have the orders it's just a matter of meeting the demand before new year.
I would be astonished if they didn't.Now that they have 800k installed production capability Before we add Berlin and Texas the big question is can they maintain Q4 2020 Delivery numbers into 2021.
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