Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Lt. Coulomb]

RobDickinson said:

Nokia , which lost its dominance in the handset market to Apple.

Then Apple lost its dominance to Android.

[RobDickinson]

Some of this change has just switched to suv/cuv market but that's no comfort to the established companies as the model Y is going to eat that lunch..

[hyphen]

From another thread, charging price change for 'direct customers'

I imagine that means non partner manufacturers, such as Tesla.

Edited by hyphen on Thursday 16th January 21:20

[Gandahar]

HalcyonRichard said:

Gross margin on Model 3 in China could be 40%

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-made-in-china-mode...

Time to close the thread ?

Depends if they sell 1 or 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

coetzeeh said:

Don’t forget the US 300m a year payment to Chinese Govt from ‘23.

They've already demo'd 3k a week production, 150k a year, at $42k each thats $6bn a year revenue potential this year with a %20+ profit margin

By 2023 they will have had the model Y up and running for a couple years too and be at 500k pa with 30%+ profit margin ($21bn*0.3= $6bn profit)

$300m a year can be paid out of petty cash.

500k per year would be 3x that, where does this number come from for a new plant? Where does the 30% profit margin come from?


Note that that tax is only $325m per year but they also have a new $2b loan to pay off, so cars * gross margin at GF3 will be something to watch from 2020 into 2021.

[RobDickinson]

150k a year comes form what they have already demonstrated for production. 500k pa would be planned model 3 and y production afik

Chinas market for the model 3 is 3-4 times the size of USA and growing, no problem selling all they can make.

30% comes from a link posted further back in the thread predicting up to 40% gross margin, USA cars are at 22-23% at the moment.

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

150k a year comes form what they have already demonstrated for production. 500k pa would be planned model 3 and y production afik

Chinas market for the model 3 is 3-4 times the size of USA and growing, no problem selling all they can make.

30% comes from a link posted further back in the thread predicting up to 40% gross margin, USA cars are at 22-23% at the moment.

What other taxes are applicable? I imagine the 300mil is just a minimum related to factory. So how much more over that if they do sell a huge amount.

[RobDickinson]

hyphen said:

What other taxes are applicable? I imagine the 300mil is just a minimum related to factory. So how much more over that if they do sell a huge amount.

why dont you go find out.

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

150k a year comes form what they have already demonstrated for production. 500k pa would be planned model 3 and y production afik

Chinas market for the model 3 is 3-4 times the size of USA and growing, no problem selling all they can make.

30% comes from a link posted further back in the thread predicting up to 40% gross margin, USA cars are at 22-23% at the moment.

Do they have plant space to make 500k per year at GF3?

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

hyphen said:

What other taxes are applicable? I imagine the 300mil is just a minimum related to factory. So how much more over that if they do sell a huge amount.

why dont you go find out.

You are the one saying Chinese taxes are quote "petty cash" for Tesla.

And you don't even know the full picture.

Oh.

[RobDickinson]

Gandahar said:

RobDickinson said:

150k a year comes form what they have already demonstrated for production. 500k pa would be planned model 3 and y production afik

Chinas market for the model 3 is 3-4 times the size of USA and growing, no problem selling all they can make.

30% comes from a link posted further back in the thread predicting up to 40% gross margin, USA cars are at 22-23% at the moment.

Do they have plant space to make 500k per year at GF3?

yes..onc the second phase is complete https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gf3-hiring-ramp-mi...

[Gandahar]

These two snippets of financial news show how inflated the Tesla market capitalisation bubble is within 24 hours.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/morgan-stanley-dow...

$360


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shares-could-...


$4000 - $ 6000


All within 24 hours !



Take your pick, the financial community still cannot work out Tesla and their supporters.

I'm thinking this might be the first stock in a long time to undergo a Persian v Greek style bloodbath at Marathon,

As a happy watcher from the hills I'm all for shouting on both sides !

[RobDickinson]

Ark investment have always had those prices baked in.

They will start 2023 with 1-1.5m + production capability and 20-25%+ gross margin with an asp of $45-50k and that is art the low end of predictions with plenty of growth to go

Ark have a calculator they use which is publicly available on github afik.

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

150k a year comes form what they have already demonstrated for production. 500k pa would be planned model 3 and y production afik

This is a new plant with new employees. If they go from 150k to 500k so quickly as a Chinese buyer I might be tempted to pay more for a USA built one where they just have the normal lack of QA rather than new ones.

That's a rather pessimistic viewpoint of course.

[RobDickinson]

reports are the chinese ones have higher quality but will be lower end cars from a battery/spec pov, the high end cards still come from USA.

GF3 is more efficient than fremont because it doesnt have the space constrains and compromises etc

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

Ark investment have always had those prices baked in.

They will start 2023 with 1-1.5m + production capability and 20-25%+ gross margin with an asp of $45-50k and that is art the low end of predictions with plenty of growth to go

Ark have a calculator they use which is publicly available on github afik.

Ark reminds me of Noah during the flood and also Indiana Jones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcR9k8o4I0w


Given that I am going to give Ark a miss with their $6000 share price estimate.


I could be wrong though, Tesla could do that due to USA share buying insanity. If that happens Musk will be the richest man on earth.

Edited by Gandahar on Thursday 16th January 22:51

[RobDickinson]

hes on for near $200bn in wealth with Tesla, and SpaceX will be worth a similar amount for him but not publicly traded.

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

reports are the chinese ones have higher quality but will be lower end cars from a battery/spec pov, the high end cards still come from USA.

GF3 is more efficient than fremont because it doesnt have the space constrains and compromises etc

End users judge higher quality, lets see. They might well have.

GF3 is more efficient true..


Let''s talk about GF4

Why did it get put in high expense Germany and not Czech Republic with lower wage costs and already Toyota etc investing in there?

I don't understand that move at all. The Germans are not the Chinese when it comes to getting things done fast and papering over things for a quick buck.

[Gandahar]

RobDickinson said:

hes on for near $200bn in wealth with Tesla, and SpaceX will be worth a similar amount for him but not publicly traded.

He doesn't get any money day to day from Tesla on wage or cash incentives, just down to share price and market value incentives.

Is that good or bad?

[RobDickinson]

Gandahar said:

Why did it get put in high expense Germany and not Czech Republic with lower wage costs and already

I'm guessing that was a complicated spreadsheet of costs, +/-s and local incentives, labor availability, infrastructure etc.

Tesla already has a largeish German company (~1000 employees) so knows the country I guess.