Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[NDA]

I'm surprised the driver's seat doesn't have a weight sensor in it.

[ZesPak]

NDA said:

I'm surprised the driver's seat doesn't have a weight sensor in it.

It does. There's probably some weight under that blanket.

[Lim]

I'm about 80% sure seat weight doesn't figure into AP? I sometimes stretch a bit on quiet motorway trips...

Could easily be wrong.

[NDA]

ZesPak said:

NDA said:

I'm surprised the driver's seat doesn't have a weight sensor in it.

It does. There's probably some weight under that blanket.

I only skimmed the article - I had assumed he was in the back having a kip.

[ZesPak]

Lim said:

I'm about 80% sure seat weight doesn't figure into AP? I sometimes stretch a bit on quiet motorway trips...

Could easily be wrong.

He does have the seatbelt done.
And there could easily be a big bottle of water or something under that blanket if necessary.



Maybe someone should ask him to make an instructional video?

Can I nominate Smiljan?

[anonymous-user]

Waymo having a dig at tesla

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tes...

"For us, Tesla is not a competitor at all," Krafcik said. "We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system."

"It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system," Krafcik said. "In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers."

Etc

[Burwood]

JPJPJP said:

Waymo having a dig at tesla

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tes...

"For us, Tesla is not a competitor at all," Krafcik said. "We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system."

"It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system," Krafcik said. "In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers."

Etc

I agree entirely.

[off_again]

Burwood said:

JPJPJP said:

Waymo having a dig at tesla

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tes...

"For us, Tesla is not a competitor at all," Krafcik said. "We manufacture a completely autonomous driving system. Tesla is an automaker that is developing a really good driver assistance system."

"It is a misconception that you can just keep developing a driver assistance system until one day you can magically leap to a fully autonomous driving system," Krafcik said. "In terms of robustness and accuracy, for example, our sensors are orders of magnitude better than what we see on the road from other manufacturers."

Etc

I agree entirely.

Me too! Waymo has really thought about how this would work and how it needs to be backed up with operators (over the phone), customer services and so on. Even down to the way that it shows data on the screen and what to pick out and illustrate to make people comfortable. Lots and lots of small things to actually make the Waymo system work, even before we get to sensors etc. Tesla needs to build all of that out and provide a robust mechanism, and the promise of a 'camera to watch the occupants' isnt going to cut it.....

[anonymous-user]

off_again said:

Me too! Waymo has really thought about how this would work and how it needs to be backed up with operators (over the phone), customer services and so on. Even down to the way that it shows data on the screen and what to pick out and illustrate to make people comfortable. Lots and lots of small things to actually make the Waymo system work, even before we get to sensors etc. Tesla needs to build all of that out and provide a robust mechanism, and the promise of a 'camera to watch the occupants' isnt going to cut it.....

How many reusable crewed rockets has Waymo got to the International Space Station and back?

I think tesla getting its self driving robotaxis up and running is a very long shot. But I wouldn’t bet all my money against it just yet.

[ZesPak]

Burwood said:

I agree entirely.

Well, it's just another company spokesman, and pointing towards Tesla gains interest in whichever context.
In the end I do appreciate their sensor array will prove itself superior, but don't underestimate the vast amount of data Tesla is currently already gathering.

[Burwood]

ZesPak said:

Burwood said:

I agree entirely.

Well, it's just another company spokesman, and pointing towards Tesla gains interest in whichever context.
In the end I do appreciate their sensor array will prove itself superior, but don't underestimate the vast amount of data Tesla is currently already gathering.

I’m not arguing. It’s clear to me, a non expert who had delved deep into the tech, that it’s Ludar or go home. Everyone but musk says so. I wonder when he’ll start cashing out. The stocks taking a huge dump at some point. He won’t get FSD with this system.

[Smiljan]

JPJPJP said:

How many reusable crewed rockets has Waymo got to the International Space Station and back?.

None, same as Tesla. Why would they?

[anonymous-user]

JPJPJP said:

How many reusable crewed rockets has Waymo got to the International Space Station and back?

I think tesla getting its self driving robotaxis up and running is a very long shot. But I wouldn’t bet all my money against it just yet.

Thats easy by comparison to self drive. They made it to the moon and back using less computing power than an 80's watch.

[ZesPak]

Burwood said:

I’m not arguing. It’s clear to me, a non expert who had delved deep into the tech, that it’s Ludar or go home. Everyone but musk says so. I wonder when he’ll start cashing out. The stocks taking a huge dump at some point. He won’t get FSD with this system.

That's some very confident statements based on you reading articles. When is this dump coming? You've got a timeline on this?

[Burwood]

ZesPak said:

Burwood said:

I’m not arguing. It’s clear to me, a non expert who had delved deep into the tech, that it’s Ludar or go home. Everyone but musk says so. I wonder when he’ll start cashing out. The stocks taking a huge dump at some point. He won’t get FSD with this system.

That's some very confident statements based on you reading articles. When is this dump coming? You've got a timeline on this?

Pretty soon I reckon

[off_again]

JPJPJP said:

How many reusable crewed rockets has Waymo got to the International Space Station and back?

I read a great article about Gwynne Shotwell, CEO of SpaceX. Basically says that she has been successful with SpaceX because Elon ISNT involved. She has managed him extremely well and made him feel involved, but kept him away from the real rocket scientists. You know Elon isnt a rocket scientist, right? Gwynne has been masterful in not taking the limelight (allowing Elon to do that), but allowing her engineers to get on with the very complex and tricky task of getting rockets up and down from space. She's the real mover here, NOT Elon.

I am impressed with SpaceX and wont take anything away from them. But you know that Google has achieved a hell of a lot too. Not been to space, but they have managed to create multiple new markets and are STILL growing at around 20% per year. Impressive stuff.

JPJPJP said:

I think tesla getting its self driving robotaxis up and running is a very long shot. But I wouldn’t bet all my money against it just yet.

My point is that I dont doubt that Tesla are aiming for FSD, but its different to what Waymo is doing and in that area, Waymo are ahead. We can argue about the whole Lidar thing, or the on-board processing power or even AI technologies. What I am referring to is that the Waymo technology is much more comprehensive and they are building something that is capable for a service or delivered independently to manufacturers.

The Waymo service is wrapped up with the hailing, pickup, customer service, billing (not enabled yet), feedback, emergency coverage and so on. Yes, Tesla demonstrated a FSD from SF to LA, BUT have failed to actually do any sort of service around this - its little more than a feature for a car that Tesla makes. Waymo have a full service right from FSD to fully automated taxi's that are compatible with a mixture of cars! They can easily repackage this, license it or even launch a competitor to Uber (should laws allow). And thats before I get to the full UI analysis that they have done - and some pretty graphics on a screen with fanboys going 'woohoo' doesnt cut it. If people are to accept this, it needs to think about a whole load of things that Tesla havent even got to.

Not betting against Tesla, but putting them in their box. Waymo is ahead of the game at the moment but still has a massive number of challenges ahead. But I would suggest that they are closer than Tesla at the moment. Things change, but Tesla are pursuing FSD as a differentiator for their cars and to demonstrate 'technical superiority'. Talk of robotaxi's and Tesla's going up in value is just that - talk. They still have a long way to go with FSD and where they might want to end up, and thats something that Waymo has considered and is resolving now.

[hyphen]

off_again said:

I read a great article about Gwynne Shotwell, CEO of SpaceX. Basically says that she has been successful with SpaceX because Elon ISNT involved. She has managed him extremely well and made him feel involved, but kept him away from the real rocket scientists. You know Elon isnt a rocket scientist, right? Gwynne has been masterful in not taking the limelight (allowing Elon to do that), but allowing her engineers to get on with the very complex and tricky task of getting rockets up and down from space. She's the real mover here, NOT Elon.

Unless things have changed, Elon is majority shareholder and has voting control. So Elon put Gwynne in charge...

Elon doesn't appear to be the kind of guy someone could 'manage', or keep away from the scientists, unless he wanted it that way? He isn't a Trump type buffoon.

[craig_m67]

off_again said:

I read a great article about Gwynne Shotwell, CEO of SpaceX. Basically says that she has been successful with SpaceX because Elon ISNT involved. She has managed him extremely well and made him feel involved, but kept him away from the real rocket scientists. You know Elon isnt a rocket scientist, right? Gwynne has been masterful in not taking the limelight (allowing Elon to do that), but allowing her engineers to get on with the very complex and tricky task of getting rockets up and down from space. She's the real mover here, NOT Elon.

I am impressed with SpaceX and wont take anything away from them. But you know that Google has achieved a hell of a lot too. Not been to space, but they have managed to create multiple new markets and are STILL growing at around 20% per year. Impressive stuff.

Got a reference for this.... I can’t find anything with a quick google

Edited by craig_m67 on Wednesday 27th January 01:02

[anonymous-user]

Q4 results have disappointed on EPS apparently (0.8 vs 1.03 expected)

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/78Z2ZX_2020_Q4_...

[Heres Johnny]

And the updated MS looks like a new front bumper on the outside