Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Heres Johnny]

Tired of the same old people posting comparisons between cars that are available today with cars that Tesla have announced but don't yet know how to build, the Veyron v Roadster charts.. yawn.. the "Get yourself a Plaid+ as it has a 500 mile range" which someone round here suggested somebody did even though its a year away or more, the endless self driving disappointments propped up with engineered astroturfing youtube channels of supposedly independent testers

I've said it once on this thread recently, but at $100 a share they'd still be as big as VW. That wouldn't be a failure, far from it, but it would be much closer to being realistic. Maybe a few investors have thought that if Tesla can make more money in Bitcoin than making cars, which seems to be the case in the last week, why put money into Tesla and not into other investments?

Its a volatile stock and no doubt the usual forums will be full of people being urged to buy Tesla and now is a great time. Its not based on anything other than a belief system that makes Christianity look like its based on tangible facts.

[Lim]

Tech Venture capital is a bet on future innovation into unknown areas. Pivoting isn’t just fine it’s expected. Investors are not investing on auto metrics. You might disagree with their thesis. But you cant keep complaining about them not valuing as a car company if that is not their thesis for investing.

The case for future innovation is not yet discredited so why would the share price collapse to prevailing auto levels?

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 08:53

[anonymous-user]

There are only so many cars to be sold in the price bracket Tesla can hope to supply and the competition is coming fast.

Are Tesla doing the old trick of promising the earth is around the corner to suppress competitors sales? If so that only works for a while. Once that game is up and the competition has a good product alternative, away goes that customer.

Ive seen it multiple times, it's prevelant in car modifying where for example a new mega damper package is coming from world leader partners, bugger all turns up to market but their competitors lost a years sales whilst they scrambled to make a product.

[Heres Johnny]

Falling to $100 isn't to prevailing levels, its still a 20x multiplier on Audi production volumes and profitability

The "tech venture" bubble is bursting though. Whats the tech?

EV batteries and drive trains - everyone is catching up and go to China and there's lots of it going on. And Tesla don't even make their batteries. They may still have their nose in front but its not a first mover market where you capture the market like paypal, google, amazon etc

Self driving.. thats a long time coming and equally lots of research doesn't but Tesla ahead. Its also another area where the first mover grabs the market. Nobody seems to be looking to buy the Tesla system, they either self develop or go go Mobileye (NBMW, Merc etc) or Waymo (Jaguar) or one of the other companies. So even if Tesla nail it first, how long will that edge last?

Car fundamentals, its only the US where they hold the number 1 spot in EV car makers (no doubt someone will post a chart that shows on Wednesday 2 weeks ago they sold more than other manufacturers over lunchtime). And EV sales are propped up by tax incentives which a post covid world may get seriously tempered to pay the debt.

Maybe the change is going to be robotaxi and the revenue that is going to bring. There's more ducks to line up to get that off the ground than betting on red all night in a casino.

So what exactly is the inflection point and doing things differently that warrant the price?

[Lim]

It's more an investment in the CEO than any particular tech. Musk has a long history of good returns for investors in this space.

I'm as baffled by the valuation as anyone, but at the same time wouldn't be surprised if he manages to carve out good returns for investors in all these industries you mention over the next 10 years or so.

Focusing on profit is massively missing the point from an investor's point of view. Paypal was not profitable when musk helped sell it but look at both Paypal and Musk now.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 09:22

[Heres Johnny]

Lim said:

It's more an investment in the CEO than any particular tech. Musk has a long history of good returns for investors in this space.

I'm as baffled by the valuation as anyone, but at the same time wouldn't be surprised if he manages to carve out good returns for investors in all these industries you mention over the next 10 years or so.

Focusing on profit is massively missing the point from an investor's point of view. Paypal was not profitable when musk helped sell it but look at both Paypal and Musk now.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 09:22

Who was focusing on profit? Its not a focus, its just one of a handful of metrics

I presume you've read up on Paypal, that it existed before Musk got there (like Tesla did), that his X.com got dropped after the merger, and that Musk got hustled off the board etc? It wasn't a bed of roses. Its also highly likely that Paypal wouldn't have gone anywhere if it wasn't for ebay.

[Lim]

Heres Johnny said:

Who was focusing on profit? Its not a focus, its just one of a handful of metrics

I presume you've read up on Paypal, that it existed before Musk got there (like Tesla did), that his X.com got dropped after the merger, and that Musk got hustled off the board etc? It wasn't a bed of roses. Its also highly likely that Paypal wouldn't have gone anywhere if it wasn't for ebay.

Yet Musk made money. IInvestors made money. Nothing went bankrupt and everything grew. Thiel and Musk reinvested and pretty much everyone involved are stinking now.

Why won't tesla investors make money? And crucially, why won't Tesla keep growing? Even at historically atypical metrics?

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 09:30

[Burwood]

Lim said:

Heres Johnny said:

Who was focusing on profit? Its not a focus, its just one of a handful of metrics

I presume you've read up on Paypal, that it existed before Musk got there (like Tesla did), that his X.com got dropped after the merger, and that Musk got hustled off the board etc? It wasn't a bed of roses. Its also highly likely that Paypal wouldn't have gone anywhere if it wasn't for ebay.

Yet Musk made money. IInvestors made money. Nothing went bankrupt and everything grew. Thiel and Musk reinvested and pretty much everyone involved are stinking now.

Why won't tesla investors make money? And crucially, why won't Tesla keep growing? Even at historically atypical metrics?

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 09:30

plenty have made money (the ones who sold). However there are a significant number who paid more than the current share price and are sitting on losses. The stock is in for a hiding this year-imo

[anonymous-user]

Lim said:

Why won't tesla investors make money? And crucially, why won't Tesla keep growing? Even at historically atypical metrics?

Every bubble has this mindset during the ascendancy period.

The more pertinent question is why would it.

[Lim]

Burwood said:

plenty have made money (the ones who sold). However there are a significant number who paid more than the current share price and are sitting on losses. The stock is in for a hiding this year-imo

If they've bought and sold within one year, then arguably they are not investors and I'm not opposed to the scalping.

[Smiljan]

The question you should ask really Lim is not "why won't Tesla grow" more "is it possible?"

If you have money invested, you need to consider the possibility and take care of that money. If the directors of the company start cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares just a week or two ago, you have to wonder why. Make hay while the sun shines?

Just consider the possibility, that's all.

[Lim]

Smiljan said:

The question you should ask really Lim is not "why won't Tesla grow" more "is it possible?"

If you have money invested, you need to consider the possibility and take care of that money. If the directors of the company start cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares just a week or two ago, you have to wonder why. Make hay while the sun shines?

Just consider the possibility, that's all.

I've said since I joined the thread that anything over 1000 in old money (is that 200?) is likely froth. A volatile share price isn't a free pass to diss the company.

And conceding volatility is quite different to saying Tesla can keep growing and innovating for a long time and reward real investors.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 10:00

[Smiljan]

By reward real investors what do you mean?

[Burwood]

Lim said:

Burwood said:

plenty have made money (the ones who sold). However there are a significant number who paid more than the current share price and are sitting on losses. The stock is in for a hiding this year-imo

If they've bought and sold within one year, then arguably they are not investors and I'm not opposed to the scalping.

Investors can and should always reassess the status quo vs their reasons for investing. Tesla stock is momentum driven and the greater fool theory-just as the question above posed 'why won't it keep growing'. That should always be tempered with the facts. A trillion dollar company. That is a rather gigantic number and based on what. I recall posters on here suggesting VW/Toyota would go bust and Tesla would maintain a 30-40% global market share when in reality it will not even manage 10%. Many 'investors' lack even basic understanding of accounting/finance.

[Smiljan]

I’ve seen people asking why Tesla don’t use their cash to buy Ford and close it down. That’s the level of madness involved in this company.

[Lim]

Burwood said:

Investors can and should always reassess the status quo vs their reasons for investing. Tesla stock is momentum driven and the greater fool theory-just as the question above posed 'why won't it keep growing'. That should always be tempered with the facts. A trillion dollar company. That is a rather gigantic number and based on what. I recall posters on here suggesting VW/Toyota would go bust and Tesla would maintain a 30-40% global market share when in reality it will not even manage 10%. Many 'investors' lack even basic understanding of accounting/finance.

Where is your evidence that investors expect Tesla to occupy 30-40% of the market? I think 10% is the most I've seen projected in the most bullish reports. Seems like something you have made up to make attacking the company easier.

In terms of auto growth, I would say 10% in the long run is probably more likely than not. Where do you see it peaking? By long run I'm talking decades.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 10:22

[Burwood]

Lim said:

Smiljan said:

The question you should ask really Lim is not "why won't Tesla grow" more "is it possible?"

If you have money invested, you need to consider the possibility and take care of that money. If the directors of the company start cashing out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares just a week or two ago, you have to wonder why. Make hay while the sun shines?

Just consider the possibility, that's all.

I've said since I joined the thread that anything over 1000 in old money (is that 200?) is likely froth. A volatile share price isn't a free pass to diss the company.

And conceding volatility is quite different to saying Tesla can keep growing and innovating for a long time and reward real investors.

Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 09:51

I don't think anyone has been disrespectful to you. The dissing has been more around the evangelists who think Tesla have invented something revolutionary and have a monopoly on it and everyone wants it. Bottom line, they lose money on every car sold and they are expensive, not built very well and their CEO is unpredictable Fundamentally, when nothing much changes between two dates but the valuation is 40X it makes no sense and is built on hot air. It doesn't mean the company is growing.

If you're happy to sit back and hold as it falls to $200 simply because you paid less then that's your prerogative.

[Smiljan]

What do you mean by 10% growth? Stock price, revenue, profit, sales?

10% over several decades?

[Burwood]

Lim said:

Burwood said:

Investors can and should always reassess the status quo vs their reasons for investing. Tesla stock is momentum driven and the greater fool theory-just as the question above posed 'why won't it keep growing'. That should always be tempered with the facts. A trillion dollar company. That is a rather gigantic number and based on what. I recall posters on here suggesting VW/Toyota would go bust and Tesla would maintain a 30-40% global market share when in reality it will not even manage 10%. Many 'investors' lack even basic understanding of accounting/finance.

Where is your evidence that investors expect Tesla to occupy 30-40% of the market? I think 10% is the most I've seen projected in the most bullish reports. Seems like something you have made up to make attacking the company easier.

In terms of growth, I would say 10% in the long run is probably more likely than not. Where do you see it peaking? By long run I'm talking decades.

you think 10%. And how many cars is that? It's 7M. Have you read the analysts report trying to justify the then $800 price. It called for 25M units+robo+FSD. JJ on here has mentioned 30-40%.

From Musk ' Elon Musk says Tesla will 'probably' make 20 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 — more than 50 times what it produced last year'

NB-Total Global output today is 70M-that is 30%

[Lim]

Burwood said:

you think 10%. And how many cars is that? It's 7M. Have you read the analysts report trying to justify the then $800 price. It called for 25M units+robo+FSD. JJ on here has mentioned 30-40%.

From Musk ' Elon Musk says Tesla will 'probably' make 20 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 — more than 50 times what it produced last year'

NB-Total Global output today is 70M-that is 30%

Seriously? Okay in that case I concede my views on Tesla are outdated. I last listened to an earnings call about a year ago.

Apologies, I join you in your disdain!

There was a time when Musk was more realistic about unit sales.