Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Lim said:
Burwood said:
you think 10%. And how many cars is that? It's 7M. Have you read the analysts report trying to justify the then $800 price. It called for 25M units+robo+FSD. JJ on here has mentioned 30-40%.
From Musk ' Elon Musk says Tesla will 'probably' make 20 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 — more than 50 times what it produced last year'
NB-Total Global output today is 70M-that is 30%
Seriously? Okay in that case I concede my views on Tesla are outdated. I last listened to an earnings call about a year ago.From Musk ' Elon Musk says Tesla will 'probably' make 20 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 — more than 50 times what it produced last year'
NB-Total Global output today is 70M-that is 30%
Apologies, I join you in your disdain!
It does seems to have gone a bit bonkers in last year on the finance side. If you think back just 12 months ago it seemed relatively sane .
Musk signing that contract to tweet what he wants.
Weak yields driving desperate investors into equities at any price
Markets halted on speculative retail investments .
Bitcoin
etc etc
Musk signing that contract to tweet what he wants.
Weak yields driving desperate investors into equities at any price
Markets halted on speculative retail investments .
Bitcoin
etc etc
Edited by Lim on Tuesday 23 February 10:38
Burwood said:
Lim said:
Burwood said:
Investors can and should always reassess the status quo vs their reasons for investing. Tesla stock is momentum driven and the greater fool theory-just as the question above posed 'why won't it keep growing'. That should always be tempered with the facts. A trillion dollar company. That is a rather gigantic number and based on what. I recall posters on here suggesting VW/Toyota would go bust and Tesla would maintain a 30-40% global market share when in reality it will not even manage 10%. Many 'investors' lack even basic understanding of accounting/finance.
Where is your evidence that investors expect Tesla to occupy 30-40% of the market? I think 10% is the most I've seen projected in the most bullish reports. Seems like something you have made up to make attacking the company easier. In terms of growth, I would say 10% in the long run is probably more likely than not. Where do you see it peaking? By long run I'm talking decades.
From Musk ' Elon Musk says Tesla will 'probably' make 20 million electric vehicles a year by 2030 — more than 50 times what it produced last year'
NB-Total Global output today is 70M-that is 30%
maybe the author is a mate, I'm sure it'll sell well now. Company taking a dive, BTC investment tanking and the best response he has is to tell everyone about a jolly nice book he's read You'll know when BTC has hit the bottom of the dip, a week after it starts rising again he'll start tweeting about it to his faithful.
Ah, I don't get the book reference?
That said, Tesla will dip and I'm guessing that's permanent. But BTC? I'm betting that'll go up anyway. If he tweets about it, people will make remarks as well. Damned if he does, damned...
People looking into his tweets too much are the ones that perpetuate his brand tbh.
That said, Tesla will dip and I'm guessing that's permanent. But BTC? I'm betting that'll go up anyway. If he tweets about it, people will make remarks as well. Damned if he does, damned...
People looking into his tweets too much are the ones that perpetuate his brand tbh.
Heres Johnny said:
The "tech venture" bubble is bursting though. Whats the tech?
Oh god, dont get me started on that.... ;-)When VC's talk about a 1 in 10 success rate (that is 1 in 10 gets to self-sufficiency, NOT profit or IPO), this no longer becomes a market of managing success and growing businesses, but one of rolling the dice at the casino and dubious business practices. For each of the Facebooks out there, there are a trail of hundreds of failed businesses on the way. This whole 'disrupt the market' BS is out of hand but VC's and investors love it - a quick way to make a million? Hell yeah, sign me up.....
I use a great example from back in 2014 (ok, some time ago I know). It was a parking space sharing app to be launched in San Francisco at the peak of the 'disruptor bubble'. They managed to get $14m in funding and they day before they launched got a C & D and letter from the city of SF. Turns out no one had actually checked the legal status of the on-street parking in the whole of the city of SF! Like so many places around the world, you dont own the space, you rent it from the city. And written into the legal terms and minimal charge is a 'no sublease' clause. Its the cities street, paint, maintenance and legal paper. Product never launched, legal challenges were promised but failed at the first hurdle. $14m wasted on a simple check that anyone should have made.
When you are at this level of BS, anything goes. Its baked into the fabric of the market this is just one example of the complete nutjobs running around. Silicon Valley the HBO series is a great illustration of the stupidity of the 'tech disruptor' market. With that as a lens to a part of the investor market, there is no surprise that Tesla and Musk rides that wave like a boss.
off_again said:
Heres Johnny said:
The "tech venture" bubble is bursting though. Whats the tech?
Oh god, dont get me started on that.... ;-)When VC's talk about a 1 in 10 success rate (that is 1 in 10 gets to self-sufficiency, NOT profit or IPO), this no longer becomes a market of managing success and growing businesses, but one of rolling the dice at the casino and dubious business practices. For each of the Facebooks out there, there are a trail of hundreds of failed businesses on the way. This whole 'disrupt the market' BS is out of hand but VC's and investors love it - a quick way to make a million? Hell yeah, sign me up.....
I use a great example from back in 2014 (ok, some time ago I know). It was a parking space sharing app to be launched in San Francisco at the peak of the 'disruptor bubble'. They managed to get $14m in funding and they day before they launched got a C & D and letter from the city of SF. Turns out no one had actually checked the legal status of the on-street parking in the whole of the city of SF! Like so many places around the world, you dont own the space, you rent it from the city. And written into the legal terms and minimal charge is a 'no sublease' clause. Its the cities street, paint, maintenance and legal paper. Product never launched, legal challenges were promised but failed at the first hurdle. $14m wasted on a simple check that anyone should have made.
When you are at this level of BS, anything goes. Its baked into the fabric of the market this is just one example of the complete nutjobs running around. Silicon Valley the HBO series is a great illustration of the stupidity of the 'tech disruptor' market. With that as a lens to a part of the investor market, there is no surprise that Tesla and Musk rides that wave like a boss.
Tesla may very well crater the tech arena. Fun whilst it lasted boys. I predict a flight to quality-companies that actually make sacks of cash to justify their valuations
I agree with the poster above that said that 2021 could be the year of reckoning for Tesla. I like the tech (I own a M3P) but it’s hard to see how the stock value is tethered to any kind of reality. It feels intuitively to me that it’s inextricably linked to the rockstar and Silicon Valley darling at the helm.
Tesla have had a long period of time where everyone else in the market has been asleep. In that light they have taken on an almost messianic quality to them. That time is certainly passed now, all the big players are invested in EVs and they are serious about it.
I also feel like there’s a great deal of assumed Midas touch baked into the price already. In that respect I think it’s very vulnerable to just neutral news. The share price demands that the company is constantly disruptive, and successful, and I have to wonder how many more years Musk can string out promises about Robotaxis and FSD before the market grows weary of it. It feels to me like it’s on a tightrope.
You could also make an argument with their big (public) play into Bitcoin that they’re tying their fate to that horse too.
It’s been said brilliantly above but if/when this all goes tits up it won’t be Elon and the execs who lose out, it’ll be the true believers.
Tesla have had a long period of time where everyone else in the market has been asleep. In that light they have taken on an almost messianic quality to them. That time is certainly passed now, all the big players are invested in EVs and they are serious about it.
I also feel like there’s a great deal of assumed Midas touch baked into the price already. In that respect I think it’s very vulnerable to just neutral news. The share price demands that the company is constantly disruptive, and successful, and I have to wonder how many more years Musk can string out promises about Robotaxis and FSD before the market grows weary of it. It feels to me like it’s on a tightrope.
You could also make an argument with their big (public) play into Bitcoin that they’re tying their fate to that horse too.
It’s been said brilliantly above but if/when this all goes tits up it won’t be Elon and the execs who lose out, it’ll be the true believers.
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff