Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
CheesecakeRunner said:
Smiljan said:
The author of Excession died of cancer in 2013. 
Read about it. Added to the "to read" list.
Smiljan said:
maybe the author is a mate, I'm sure it'll sell well now.
Edited by ZesPak on Tuesday 23 February 22:35
Burwood said:
In all honesty Musk will just quit inside 2 years. He’s that unstable. He could be selling stock and no one but the bank would even know
If he had said the things he’s said recently about BTC and Dogecoin about an actual regulated commodity, I presume he’d be deep s
t, no? It’s hard not to see what he’s been saying, and when, as blatant market manipulation - particularly with Tesla’s entry into it.
It speaks volumes, I think, about Tesla’s valuation being built on cultish affinity that he can elevate or undermine tech stocks at will, just by giving them a shout out on Twitter. I don’t know whether his kingmaker status is a sign of the markets (for tech stocks at least) being almost completely disconnected from fundamentals, but it feels like it.
Well share price recovery tweets have started. FSD massive improvements coming next week apparently assuming that's what this vague gobbledegook means
That was in response to a post from Cleantechnica promoting this article of theirs.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/23/safety-third-...
from twitter said:
We’re upgrading all NNs to surround video, using subnets on focal areas (vs equal compute on all uncropped pixels) & many other things, so more time needed to write & validate software. Maybe something next week.
This is evolving into solving a big part of physical world AI.
Maybe something never - would be a good quote for customers who've paid for FSDThis is evolving into solving a big part of physical world AI.
That was in response to a post from Cleantechnica promoting this article of theirs.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/23/safety-third-...
Edited by Smiljan on Wednesday 24th February 09:54
Out of hours bounces 4% on the news (unless its a dead cat) only for next week to slide when that doesn't transpire as expected, so Musk tweets MS and MX details (which given they start shipping next week seems a bit late) so the price goes up again, then shipping delays and nobody is getting it until April causes the price to slide, then some youtubers get their car and praise how good it is for the share price to go up, then real owners get it and complain about the lack of indicator controls and it goes down...
All for a company who's market cap is based on where it will be in 5 years+.
All for a company who's market cap is based on where it will be in 5 years+.
Heres Johnny said:
Out of hours bounces 4% on the news (unless its a dead cat) only for next week to slide when that doesn't transpire as expected, so Musk tweets MS and MX details (which given they start shipping next week seems a bit late) so the price goes up again, then shipping delays and nobody is getting it until April causes the price to slide, then some youtubers get their car and praise how good it is for the share price to go up, then real owners get it and complain about the lack of indicator controls and it goes down...
All for a company who's market cap is based on where it will be in 5 years+.
Is that not what "retail investors" want now? Speculative bounces so they can try and make some quick money without any real effort or thought. Actually dissecting the fundamentals is boring.All for a company who's market cap is based on where it will be in 5 years+.
I feel intuitively that Musk's promises of this, that and the other in recent years have been allowed to slide while Tesla has been the only meaningful EV game in town, but they aren't now. On a practical level this year and beyond people looking to buy an EV will have credible alternatives that are either cheaper, better equipped, or both.
They are premium priced cars but almost all of that is in the brand's aspirational qualities, the software and the battery tech. The lauded software is not without its practical faults, some of omission and others of blinkered business decisions (Tesla insists on its AI-driven auto wipers and headlights, that are patently less effective than run-of-the-mill sensor based solutions). The brand cachet will only last for as long as they are seen as standard bearers, and as time goes on - particularly this year I think - this will be eroded.
Customers have let a lot slide with Tesla but when the traditional manufacturers are all in on EV I'm struggling to see how they can maintain their brand allure, particularly when things like QC and build quality are not of any real concern to them.
Edited by Durzel on Wednesday 24th February 11:21
Smiljan said:
Well share price recovery tweets have started. FSD massive improvements coming next week apparently assuming that's what this vague gobbledegook means
That was in response to a post from Cleantechnica promoting this article of theirs.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/23/safety-third-...
Whatever Tesla develop their FSD will never work without Lidar and it's still years away from mass market. At least 10, maybe more. I doubt they'll be the first either and companies like VAG will just buy the solution for a few K per unit and sell it as a bolt on option.from twitter said:
We’re upgrading all NNs to surround video, using subnets on focal areas (vs equal compute on all uncropped pixels) & many other things, so more time needed to write & validate software. Maybe something next week.
This is evolving into solving a big part of physical world AI.
Maybe something never - would be a good quote for customers who've paid for FSDThis is evolving into solving a big part of physical world AI.
That was in response to a post from Cleantechnica promoting this article of theirs.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/23/safety-third-...
Edited by Smiljan on Wednesday 24th February 09:54
Burwood said:
Whatever Tesla develop their FSD will never work without Lidar and it's still years away from mass market. At least 10, maybe more. I doubt they'll be the first either and companies like VAG will just buy the solution for a few K per unit and sell it as a bolt on option.
Its what they've done for years, buying from mobileye.The eyeq3 system is what Tesla used for AP1, great system, solid, robust, many Tesla owners still love it, and its 10 years old
Mobileye then launched eyeq4 - more cameras, more tech, more processing and BMW and others use that now as their system and is what is ncap were comparing to the latest (baring the 20 users in the US with the "beta") of Teslas offering. Very comparable by all accounts and scores higher in use.
Mobileye haven't stopped, they're on the verge of releasing eyeq5 which will be the next quantum leap on from the eyeq4 system
Eyeq4 systems with parking, active cruise, lane keep, lane change, stop signs, traffic lights recognition, speed limit recognition, changing speed to speed limits, junction exit, adapting to road layout etc etc, most of the stuff FSD currently does with maybe the exception of Nav on Autopilot but with the addition of full speed limit correct behaviour - is about £2k retail. Thats how expensive, or rather relatively inexpensive these things are in the market.
Heres Johnny said:
Burwood said:
Whatever Tesla develop their FSD will never work without Lidar and it's still years away from mass market. At least 10, maybe more. I doubt they'll be the first either and companies like VAG will just buy the solution for a few K per unit and sell it as a bolt on option.
Its what they've done for years, buying from mobileye.The eyeq3 system is what Tesla used for AP1, great system, solid, robust, many Tesla owners still love it, and its 10 years old
Mobileye then launched eyeq4 - more cameras, more tech, more processing and BMW and others use that now as their system and is what is ncap were comparing to the latest (baring the 20 users in the US with the "beta") of Teslas offering. Very comparable by all accounts and scores higher in use.
Mobileye haven't stopped, they're on the verge of releasing eyeq5 which will be the next quantum leap on from the eyeq4 system
Eyeq4 systems with parking, active cruise, lane keep, lane change, stop signs, traffic lights recognition, speed limit recognition, changing speed to speed limits, junction exit, adapting to road layout etc etc, most of the stuff FSD currently does with maybe the exception of Nav on Autopilot but with the addition of full speed limit correct behaviour - is about £2k retail. Thats how expensive, or rather relatively inexpensive these things are in the market.
jjwilde said:
I missed a day due to work and the thread seems to have gone retarded but yes kids, sounds like Tesla & Bitcoin are surely going to zero this time
Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your wk fantasy).
I'm sure there's a crypto thread somewhere you can settle in to, seeing as it seems to be all you care about? This thread appears to be about Tesla and Uber (although I haven't seen the latter discussed for many pages).Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your w
k fantasy).jjwilde said:
I missed a day due to work and the thread seems to have gone retarded but yes kids, sounds like Tesla & Bitcoin are surely going to zero this time
Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your wk fantasy).
Come on, you can be honest. You were away 'cause you were spending your bitcoin on meme's weren't you Let us all know when it happens (in the real world, not your w
k fantasy).https://www.wired.co.uk/article/crypto-art-nft
Tesla are closing down production in California for at least two weeks.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
Bloomberg article said:
The California plant is still the most important part of Tesla’s vehicle-production base, with capacity to make an estimated 600,000 vehicles a year. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk also has opened a plant near Shanghai and is constructing facilities outside Berlin and in Texas.
Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
Staff are not being paid for 4 days of the shutdown to save money. They can chose to book leave for those 4 days instead. The remainder of the shutdown they will still be paid.Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
Smiljan said:
Tesla are closing down production in California for at least two weeks.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
The facts are Tesla can't sell all that they produce because their cars are too expensive and the only way to drive volume is to slash prices (and clearly lose even more money). Tesla earnings are derived from selling Carbon Credits to other manufacturers.Bloomberg article said:
The California plant is still the most important part of Tesla’s vehicle-production base, with capacity to make an estimated 600,000 vehicles a year. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk also has opened a plant near Shanghai and is constructing facilities outside Berlin and in Texas.
Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
Staff are not being paid for 4 days of the shutdown to save money. They can chose to book leave for those 4 days instead. The remainder of the shutdown they will still be paid.Tesla has cut the price of its various models 14 times in markets including China, Japan and France this year, raising some analysts’ doubts that it has enough demand to meet its goals.
“When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained,” GLJ Research LLC founder Gordon Johnson wrote in a note earlier this week.
I wonder if this is in part why the SR Model Y was launched, sold and then yanked within just a six week period. Better to sell the more profitable unsold inventory models than to manufacture Model Y SR with little profit.
Wait until next quarterly ER to see growth at a stand still and more losses (operational). My belief is 2021 will see Tesla fall at least 60% such that it's no more than 250-300. And they will get booted from the S&P in the medium term
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