Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
Personally I think that makes sense - the only way you get anywhere close to the current valuation is if you believe Tesla will delivery FSD. I'm in the "sceptic" group, so that would leave a company with a share price about a 1/3 of the current level. Still pretty good though.
Still ridiculously high imho.Even with FSD...
ZesPak said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Personally I think that makes sense - the only way you get anywhere close to the current valuation is if you believe Tesla will delivery FSD. I'm in the "sceptic" group, so that would leave a company with a share price about a 1/3 of the current level. Still pretty good though.
Still ridiculously high imho.Even with FSD...
It is FSD where the analysts are pretty much guessing what the revenue streams might be in the future, and is where all the stock hyping comes in. My guess is that to achieve mainstream FSD will require government to legislate on communication standards between cars, as well as upgrading the roads and signage to be genuinely 'smart'. That will be necessary imo to resolve the issues with weather and to solve the more complicated edge cases.
At that point, there will be very large opportunities, but I doubt it will be Tesla who will solely capitalise on it.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Wednesday 3rd March 19:59
Smiljan said:
Shares took a beating again yesterday, down from a high of 900 just a few of weeks ago to 686. They're quite volatile daily but the trend for the last month has been continually downward. Might just be following the usual end of year share pump/gold rush that is common with Tesla. This time the gold rush was a bit more extreme than previously though.
There's also an article on Bloomberg which tries to explain the German market and why big companies there won't offer the Tesla to their employees for company cars despite the employees showing a lot of interest.
They put it down to lack of service centers in the country compared to other manufactures, refusal to offer discounts for bulk buyers and the lack of any sort of relationship between the fleet managers and the company which other brands have built up over the years.
Whether that is true or if it's just German companies protecting German auto makers is hard to verify but the words from the SAP fleet manager seemed genuine rather than protectionist.
I wonder if Tesla are just biding their time, waiting for Berlin to start throwing our cars before they start going after the fleet sales with the discounts and support those fleet managers will require?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03...
I know Bloomberg is about as reliable as Teslarati for "news" sometimes but this article seems to have been well researched at least.
Tesla clearly have a demand issue outside of the US with their current production rate, China isn't at full capacity yet but they still can't sell what they make in China and have ship cars out to Europe. The US delivery times are almost next day for most models suggesting their inventory stock is pretty good. They'll have another factory in Germany throwing out cars by the thousands soon on top of that.
The Model Y will just steal Model 3 sales especially in Europe where saloon cars have rapidly fallen out of favour over the years.
Many a company has struggled or even failed by over expanding, perhaps they'll approach another difficult period over the next year or two like the danger they were in during 2018?
That article is interesting; it tells you a lot about the perceived reliability of premium cars that this might be a big issue. The SAP fleet manager is assuming Tesla will be no more reliable than Audi / Merc, and that those trad makers are not very reliable!There's also an article on Bloomberg which tries to explain the German market and why big companies there won't offer the Tesla to their employees for company cars despite the employees showing a lot of interest.
They put it down to lack of service centers in the country compared to other manufactures, refusal to offer discounts for bulk buyers and the lack of any sort of relationship between the fleet managers and the company which other brands have built up over the years.
Whether that is true or if it's just German companies protecting German auto makers is hard to verify but the words from the SAP fleet manager seemed genuine rather than protectionist.
I wonder if Tesla are just biding their time, waiting for Berlin to start throwing our cars before they start going after the fleet sales with the discounts and support those fleet managers will require?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03...
I know Bloomberg is about as reliable as Teslarati for "news" sometimes but this article seems to have been well researched at least.
Tesla clearly have a demand issue outside of the US with their current production rate, China isn't at full capacity yet but they still can't sell what they make in China and have ship cars out to Europe. The US delivery times are almost next day for most models suggesting their inventory stock is pretty good. They'll have another factory in Germany throwing out cars by the thousands soon on top of that.
The Model Y will just steal Model 3 sales especially in Europe where saloon cars have rapidly fallen out of favour over the years.
Many a company has struggled or even failed by over expanding, perhaps they'll approach another difficult period over the next year or two like the danger they were in during 2018?
Edited by Smiljan on Wednesday 3rd March 09:16
Esp since this is SAP, there’s a strong opportunity for someone at Tesla with access to actual data to make a case for why a repair centre next door is only an issue when your cars go wrong all the time...
EddieSteadyGo said:
It is FSD where the analysts are pretty much guessing what the revenue streams might be in the future, and is where all the stock hyping comes in. My guess is that to achieve mainstream FSD will require government to legislate on communication standards between cars, as well as upgrading the roads and signage to be genuinely 'smart'. That will be necessary imo to resolve the issues with weather and to solve the more complicated edge cases.
Yeah, I am still shocked by the push to FSD without the legal framework, never mind the investments that need to be made around infrastructure, liability and additional supporting technology (like inter-car communications and avoidance systems). The technology is good, but its not there yet. Even if it was, we have years of resolving the whole thing before it becomes even close to being adopted. 'Beta' versions, tech demos and ultra-positive analysts are missing the fundamentals here - and its ramping their price up.EddieSteadyGo said:
At that point, there will be very large opportunities, but I doubt it will be Tesla who will solely capitalise on it.
And thats the interesting point. They arent the only one doing this. Said it before and will say it again - just because you are the first to market (which Tesla may or may not be) doesnt guarantee success. So many times we have seen this before in different markets. They might get there first, but their competitors are close (and in some case, better) and its so dependent on external aspects. All it takes is a few lost court cases against FSD and their strategy is sunk. skwdenyer said:
That article is interesting; it tells you a lot about the perceived reliability of premium cars that this might be a big issue. The SAP fleet manager is assuming Tesla will be no more reliable than Audi / Merc, and that those trad makers are not very reliable!
Esp since this is SAP, there’s a strong opportunity for someone at Tesla with access to actual data to make a case for why a repair centre next door is only an issue when your cars go wrong all the time...
Cars go wrong, if you’re managing was it 17,000 you’d want some reliable service / repair facilities nearby. They do have a reputation for long wait times in European countries and the mobile service can’t do everything.Esp since this is SAP, there’s a strong opportunity for someone at Tesla with access to actual data to make a case for why a repair centre next door is only an issue when your cars go wrong all the time...
I’m not sure how much of a driver that is or whether it’s more down to pricing. Fleet sales generally give healthy discounts to large customers and build relationships to get repeat sales. If Tesla aren’t engaging in that it’s either by choice or by lack of understanding. I don’t know what it is, maybe they don’t want fleet sales and feel they currently have enough private sales not to bother trying?
It’s why many large companies have lists of choices for their cars that owners would never buy privately. I’m sure EV fleets will be just the same.
They’ll have to get into it if they want to grow at the rate their expecting though.
Edited by Smiljan on Wednesday 3rd March 20:28
coetzeeh said:
TSLA closed at $652 - that's about $225bn in market cap gone since the $1,5bn coin investment.
Yikes, just feels odd and painful to be talking about 'billions' like that.... ouch, there are a bunch of people who lost money there (or lost growth). Just feels wrong to be talking those numbers.I don't fully understand it all but you have to factor in the trading volume each day not just the price. Today was particularly low volume day for Tesla with just 29 million changing hands. During last year before the stock split it was regularly well over 100 million daily.
Mid December there's normally a day or three in the 200 millions when large shareholders offload their stock options before the end of year. In 2020 that one day was 222 million traded against an average of 30 to 40 million each day in the rest of December.
There are loads of trading sites that try to explain what it all means and how you can take advantage but with everything as always they all have different opinions. If there's a lot of stock trading and the price is rising it generally means the rise will be sustained for a longer period.
In slack times like now, low average volumes the share price will be volatile. It doesn't necessarily mean a rout is about to happen. Plenty bought in at much lower price last year and are quite happy to just sit on the shares long term.
Anyone who bought at the high of nearly 900 will probably just have a long wait to see it back there again that's all.
Mid December there's normally a day or three in the 200 millions when large shareholders offload their stock options before the end of year. In 2020 that one day was 222 million traded against an average of 30 to 40 million each day in the rest of December.
There are loads of trading sites that try to explain what it all means and how you can take advantage but with everything as always they all have different opinions. If there's a lot of stock trading and the price is rising it generally means the rise will be sustained for a longer period.
In slack times like now, low average volumes the share price will be volatile. It doesn't necessarily mean a rout is about to happen. Plenty bought in at much lower price last year and are quite happy to just sit on the shares long term.
Anyone who bought at the high of nearly 900 will probably just have a long wait to see it back there again that's all.
Interesting article on EV sales for North America. Clearly it can be interpreted different ways, but it shows strong demand for the Mach-e.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/39586/the-ford-musta...
And as usual, got to take into account the pre-orders and demand for the Mach-e. Let’s see where this ends up in 6 months time.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/39586/the-ford-musta...
And as usual, got to take into account the pre-orders and demand for the Mach-e. Let’s see where this ends up in 6 months time.
coetzeeh said:
TSLA closed at $652 - that's about $225bn in market cap gone since the $1,5bn coin investment.
Look at the trend over the last week, dropped to below 700 and the algorithms kicked in to buy, it climbs but doesn’t hit 750, revised buying trigger set at 675, price slides, hits 675 and buying starts, climbs but doesn’t hit 725 so buy threshold set to 650, the targets dropping 25 each time, tomorrow we might see it back up because of a 650 buy, and if it doesn’t make 700 it will fall back to 625 probably by Monday.. it’s almost textbook and how day traders make their moneyThen the S&P will start thinking it was a mistake to include them and the big funds will start selling off.. But hey, they raised billions at the top of the market, musk got his bonus, the directors cashed in a few million in shares. Well played by the boardroom, you screwed the market well.
off_again said:
Interesting article on EV sales for North America. Clearly it can be interpreted different ways, but it shows strong demand for the Mach-e.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/39586/the-ford-musta...
And as usual, got to take into account the pre-orders and demand for the Mach-e. Let’s see where this ends up in 6 months time.
The evidence suggests the id.4 will outsell the Y in NA. Going concern, is a concern https://www.thedrive.com/news/39586/the-ford-musta...
And as usual, got to take into account the pre-orders and demand for the Mach-e. Let’s see where this ends up in 6 months time.
Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
February car sales stats for the UK published.
3,516 BEV sales recorded - 6,9% market share.
Tesla must have been holding back deliveries into March as "all other imports" which includes Tesla recorded 156 sales in February.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
3,516 BEV sales recorded - 6,9% market share.
Tesla must have been holding back deliveries into March as "all other imports" which includes Tesla recorded 156 sales in February.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...
Its fairly well known Tesla deliveries always lag in a quarter. It might start changing on a global perspective now Europe cars are increasingly made in China but the historic pattern was production that took time to ship were built early in the quarter and spend the middle month being shipped and the last month being delivered, and local US markets were built at the end of the quarter and delivered within weeks and cars for California were built in the last couple of weeks of a quarter and customers advised not to wash the car as the paint was still wet. It was all geared to minimising stock in transit on the reporting deadlines. But the net is little is sitting around in the first month and even the second month in Europe can be light.
It feeds the two sides of the argument nicely to fill the internet - the Tesla faithful always look at the last month of a quarter when all the action happens and the doubters look at the first month of a quarter, neither of which are representative.
It feeds the two sides of the argument nicely to fill the internet - the Tesla faithful always look at the last month of a quarter when all the action happens and the doubters look at the first month of a quarter, neither of which are representative.
Burwood said:
jjwilde said:
Burwood said:
The evidence suggests the id.4 will outsell the Y in NA. Going concern, is a concern
Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
Are you saying you've shorted Tesla? Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
jjwilde said:
Burwood said:
jjwilde said:
Burwood said:
The evidence suggests the id.4 will outsell the Y in NA. Going concern, is a concern
Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
Are you saying you've shorted Tesla? Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
jjwilde said:
Burwood said:
jjwilde said:
Burwood said:
The evidence suggests the id.4 will outsell the Y in NA. Going concern, is a concern
Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
Are you saying you've shorted Tesla? Any kings-jj, free advice-cash in brother. Thus us the best you’ll see. As always I’ll give you 2:! In that
I’m officially short.
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