Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Clive Milk said:
That's the good thing about a diesel, if you buy it now it will do 50mpg. In 6-10 years time it will still do 50mpg to the gallon. It won't be worth much when you come to sell it.
Except that it won't do 50 mpg and that gallon will possibly cost you a lot more?It won't deteriorate like a battery though.
Clive Milk said:
If you bought a BEV now you will be stuck at 200 miles range and 2 hours recharging. In 6-10 years time everyone will be having 500 miles range and 20 minutes charging. Your expensive to buy BEV will be worth NOTHING !
Hmm, I'd like to quote you on that.The Tesla Model S is getting on 8 years now and still fetches relatively good money.
The battery does deteriorate but warranty is good and shouldn't have gone past 80% original capacity.
The batteries are still very popular (refurbished, used as home batteries, used in conversions,...) which makes them worth actually quite a lot. Telsa motors are also very sought after and virtually bullet proof for well over half a million km's. Even in parts, it's far from worth nothing.
hyphen said:
Clive Milk said:
The ironic thing is that Elon might dump Tesla and let it be bought out whilst he concentrates on SpaceX Starlink.
Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.
If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.
If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.
On Joe Rogan recently, Elon said that Satellites are "terrible" for providing internet in dense urban areas. So will it make him that rich if it is just the north of Scotland that uses it in the UK?Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.
If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.
If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.
There is a guy near me, in Kent, who is building his own house in the woods. He is 5km away from the nearest fibre, guess what his data rate is ..he's still downloading Princes Party like it is 1999... he currently gets mobile 4g but would love cheap satellite coverage.
That's just in Kent, SE England !
Edited by Clive Milk on Thursday 4th March 22:50
Clive Milk said:
Smiljan said:
Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.
another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.
No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Ok, I have warbled on about the Tesla finance, the tech and now perhaps the most interesting of all, Mr Musk. another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54
He is just as you describe him, a salesman who sells things. With panache. I'll just list 5 good and bad things about Elon like Carwow do.
The good.
1. He is a driving force behind two very new upstart companies that have made waves in their respective fields.
2. Both products in those fields are good in class.
3. He inspires the next generation.
4. Interacts with buyers and shareholders on a daily basis.
5.
The bad
1. He promises the moon, literally.
2. He only cares about being the worlds richest and most popular man. All that save the planet stuff is hogwash.
3. Abuses twitter, from pumping his agenda to calling someone a pedo. The Trump of the business world.
4. Made his workforce go back to work during covid just to keep the share price up. He said Covid was bogus...
5.
You can fill in 5 for both yourselves.
You'll never be bored of Elon.
ZesPak said:
Clive Milk said:
That's the good thing about a diesel, if you buy it now it will do 50mpg. In 6-10 years time it will still do 50mpg to the gallon. It won't be worth much when you come to sell it.
Except that it won't do 50 mpg and that gallon will possibly cost you a lot more?It won't deteriorate like a battery though.
Clive Milk said:
If you bought a BEV now you will be stuck at 200 miles range and 2 hours recharging. In 6-10 years time everyone will be having 500 miles range and 20 minutes charging. Your expensive to buy BEV will be worth NOTHING !
Hmm, I'd like to quote you on that.The Tesla Model S is getting on 8 years now and still fetches relatively good money.
The battery does deteriorate but warranty is good and shouldn't have gone past 80% original capacity.
The batteries are still very popular (refurbished, used as home batteries, used in conversions,...) which makes them worth actually quite a lot. Telsa motors are also very sought after and virtually bullet proof for well over half a million km's. Even in parts, it's far from worth nothing.
Imagine in Toyota and Denso say they have a cheap solid state battery in 2024?
Battery tech is still in a state of flux for anyone wanting a car for a long term purchase. Of course that is just a subset, most people do 3 year PCP etc.
And finally, the Tesla cars vis a vis their current stock price. What have they got now and coming out soon compared to the ramping up opposition.
What they have now
1. A model S, ancient sedan/ saloon having a midlife facelift with extra power.
2. Model X, SUV, long in the tooth, getting more power, not so much of a face lift.
3. Model 3, modern sedan/ saloon, getting reduced in price,
4. Model Y, modern small SUV, getting reduced in price.
What's upcoming
1. Roadster, sports car, delayed to 2022
2. Cybertruck, radical all steel bullet proof SUV.
3. Truck / Semi / Lorry , probably delayed to 2022.
My summary is the current range is stagnant and being reduced in price just to ship "more than 50% over 2020" that Tesla have promised on the quarterly telephone meeting with analysts.
Of the upcoming 3 vehicles the Roadster seems to be dead man walking at the moment unless new news. Cybertruck is a bigger concern though, it is made out of stainless steel just because Elon has a stainless steel bent for the last 2 years, see his Starship.
How Cybertruck is going to pass crash testing on occupants and pedestrians is a big uknown. It's not exactly deformable is it?
I'm guessing late 2022, early 2023 for it, if at all. Meanwhile GM and Ford will have released products in the same niche.
What they have now
1. A model S, ancient sedan/ saloon having a midlife facelift with extra power.
2. Model X, SUV, long in the tooth, getting more power, not so much of a face lift.
3. Model 3, modern sedan/ saloon, getting reduced in price,
4. Model Y, modern small SUV, getting reduced in price.
What's upcoming
1. Roadster, sports car, delayed to 2022
2. Cybertruck, radical all steel bullet proof SUV.
3. Truck / Semi / Lorry , probably delayed to 2022.
My summary is the current range is stagnant and being reduced in price just to ship "more than 50% over 2020" that Tesla have promised on the quarterly telephone meeting with analysts.
Of the upcoming 3 vehicles the Roadster seems to be dead man walking at the moment unless new news. Cybertruck is a bigger concern though, it is made out of stainless steel just because Elon has a stainless steel bent for the last 2 years, see his Starship.
How Cybertruck is going to pass crash testing on occupants and pedestrians is a big uknown. It's not exactly deformable is it?
I'm guessing late 2022, early 2023 for it, if at all. Meanwhile GM and Ford will have released products in the same niche.
Clive Milk said:
hyphen said:
Clive Milk said:
The ironic thing is that Elon might dump Tesla and let it be bought out whilst he concentrates on SpaceX Starlink.
Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.
If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.
If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.
On Joe Rogan recently, Elon said that Satellites are "terrible" for providing internet in dense urban areas. So will it make him that rich if it is just the north of Scotland that uses it in the UK?Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.
If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.
If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.
There is a guy near me, in Kent, who is building his own house in the woods. He is 5km away from the nearest fibre, guess what his data rate is ..he's still downloading Princes Party like it is 1999... he currently gets mobile 4g but would love cheap satellite coverage.
That's just in Kent, SE England !
Edited by Clive Milk on Thursday 4th March 22:50
Smiljan said:
Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.
another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.
No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Hahah, did his rocket blow up the other day? Mmmm, nothing to see here - look over here.... another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54
Trying a distraction move on Twitter isnt necessarily the smartest move in the world.
Clive Milk said:
Good post.
UK not having a decent low cost EV car ! You forget MG young man !
:cough: Chinese :cough:UK not having a decent low cost EV car ! You forget MG young man !
Yeah, I know its engineered in Brum, but its really not a UK brand in the way that VW is a German one. And its market size is tiny. From what I have seen of the reviews, its not a bad car either! Shame, the UK has some great engineering talent.
Burwood said:
I would have bought an I’d.4 for my wife but the lack of awd was a non starter. Had to buy a diesel again. By the time that’s done there’ll be plenty of choice
ID4 AWD is coming 'summer 2021' for the US market! Its been brought forward from 'winter 2021', so thats positive. All US ID4 RWD 1st editions sold out and taking orders for the RWD Pro models for late March / early April deliveries. Not sure how much you can trust that, but looks like VW quickly reacted and looks like the AWD is coming sooner than expected. US built models still not coming until 2022, so all ID4's coming from Zwickau, so not sure how they are doing that! Time will tell....
Clive Milk said:
That's the good thing about a diesel, if you buy it now it will do 50mpg. In 6-10 years time it will still do 50mpg to the gallon. It won't be worth much when you come to sell it.
Mmm, I am sure someone will comment about the depreciation numbers for diesel cars. Yes, they once held their numbers well, but not so much. And in the current climate of emissions taxation, expect the rates to increase and that absolutely will impact the value of the car at the end. Dont for a minute assume that it will have a certain value in 6-10 years time.Clive Milk said:
If you bought a BEV now you will be stuck at 200 miles range and 2 hours recharging. In 6-10 years time everyone will be having 500 miles range and 20 minutes charging. Your expensive to buy BEV will be worth NOTHING !
Yeah, you are getting a little carried away there. EV's absolutely depreciate (contrary to what Elon might say) and are subject to spec, color, mileage issues that all cars have. Initially they have strong residuals, but this does fade a little, but are still strong when compared to equivalent models over the 2-4 year period. I ran the numbers of a M3 vs a BMW 330i / 530i and after 4 years the BMW is bad but the M3 pretty solid. Not the best on depreciation - thats the Toyota Tacoma here in the US, but far from bad.And a well kept EV in a desirable spec, color and mileage will be worth plenty in 6-10 years. Early MS versions still command $15k for high mile ones here. An equivalent petrol car is substantially less than $10k for same spec etc. We have an i3 Rex and they drop like a stone from initial purchase (so many factors affect this including initial purchase price, tax benefits and the lease deals offered by BMW) but then level out at the $15k - $25k mark. They are a positive steal for that price, but their depreciation levels out - yes, you can get a sub-$10k one, but its going to be high miles, low spec and a very early one. The market prices them well, so its still absolutely worth something!
And Zespak mentioned - second hand parts prices on EV's are high. Even for recycling, they are still worth something. But dont forget that mechanically the are very reliable and some models provide upgrade paths. The Leaf and i3 can be upgraded to bigger batteries and there is an emerging market for Tesla's being upgraded to AWD, performance and so on. And you do know that there is an emerging market for battery back-up providers to use old EV batteries? Worth nothing? Yeah, I dont think you are being quite honest there.
jjwilde said:
Pretty bad day for tech across the board, I might buy the dips.
Not sure what the end of lockdown might mean for tech tho, so I'm a little cautious.
Will likely buy more Tesla if it touches 500.
Really bad? Looks balanced on companies with a Market Cap over $500BNot sure what the end of lockdown might mean for tech tho, so I'm a little cautious.
Will likely buy more Tesla if it touches 500.
FB +1%
Google +1%
Amazon -1%
Apple -2%
Tesla -5% and down nearly 30%
Clive Milk said:
Imagine in Toyota and Denso say they have a cheap solid state battery in 2024?
Battery tech is still in a state of flux for anyone wanting a car for a long term purchase. Of course that is just a subset, most people do 3 year PCP etc.
Tbh, safety and environmental regulations are doing this already. My 2016 Jaguar diesel isn't allowed in some big cities here in 2022. Battery tech is still in a state of flux for anyone wanting a car for a long term purchase. Of course that is just a subset, most people do 3 year PCP etc.
I can tell you this doesn't do favors for the resale value.
I don't see how running a 1995 Suzuki Swift in 2020 is any different than running a 2010 Nissan Leaf is 2025.
ZesPak said:
Tbh, safety and environmental regulations are doing this already. My 2016 Jaguar diesel isn't allowed in some big cities here in 2022.
I can tell you this doesn't do favors for the resale value.
I don't see how running a 1995 Suzuki Swift in 2020 is any different than running a 2010 Nissan Leaf is 2025.
Where is here? And not allowed at all, or a penalty fee charged to enter?I can tell you this doesn't do favors for the resale value.
I don't see how running a 1995 Suzuki Swift in 2020 is any different than running a 2010 Nissan Leaf is 2025.
hyphen said:
Where is here? And not allowed at all, or a penalty fee charged to enter?
Belgium. Fee of 35 EUR for a day (if you register, if you don't, the penalty is a multiple of that). I was wrong though, they rolled back on it so for now it's safe till 2024.My neighbor was fined about 400 EUR last year for his 15 yo e-class for accidentally crossing the LEZ zone twice.
I was just illustrating that there's multiple factors and having an old ICE doesn't mean it's all sunshine and roses.
Edited by ZesPak on Friday 5th March 09:49
off_again said:
Smiljan said:
Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.
another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.
No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Hahah, did his rocket blow up the other day? Mmmm, nothing to see here - look over here.... another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54
Trying a distraction move on Twitter isnt necessarily the smartest move in the world.
https://youtu.be/ODY6JWzS8WU
SN11 is nearly finished so will fly in a few weeks.
Very impressive stuff....or something about snake oil.
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