Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Sambucket said:
Gojira said:
Tesla and Uber don't annoy me, just the rabid Fanbois who think St Elon will ever be the only guy running a car manufacturer....
I honestly don't get this. A bullish view would be 2 million cars a year by 2025 which would be roughly 2% of new car sales. Can you quote a single poster or fanbois on this site, ever, to have claimed tesla will be even in the top 3 of car makers in next 5 years, let alone the 'only' car maker.
I understand this site thrives on conflict, which is fine, but it does seem like folk make stuff up in order to have something to shout against. Most telsa fans are petrol heads too, and have above average education, and big wallets. Not the XR type to be blind cultists.
Tesla make niche premium EVs with aspirations to be at roughly BMW level of production. They want to push other OEMs into making EVs too. The quicker other companies invest in EV, the more likely will Tesla survive.
They detest legacy automakers because they don't have vertical integration and are not disruptive. Ford and GM are likely to go bust as they cannot move over to EV like Tesla can. You would have to be insane to buy any other car than Tesla, yep someone wrote that in all seriousness.
Your comment
"Most telsa fans are petrol heads too"
is not true from what I have read. They might be on PH, but not the general Tesla fan, they are actual software heads and more interested in FSD, the updates, the software in general. They are happy for their cars to drive them. Their general demographic for the noisy ones seems to be software engineer or similar, so that makes sense.
Amusingly they do think that the reason talk about the cult of Elon is that people don't like Musk or Tesla when actually it is due to them themselves with the way they act. I think that has passed them by because they tend to be in a bubble where bias confirmation is always to hand by other eager fanboys.
Getting back to the stock price I think this is one of the reasons for the large swings upwards on any news. The enthusiasm for the mission. And it is a mission, that's what they see it as.
And it seems to be working so far, at least as far as market capitalisation, now they are worth about $80b or maybe more, not checked since yesterday
I'm behind with posts on this 2nd volume, as you can tell, as someone mentioned, how many volumes will we have! It's a bit like Is this the end of the euro thread..
Back later where I talk about the Tesla Bubble......
ZesPak said:
hyphen said:
ix3, starting production 2020.
Competing with Tesla on the funky wheels fronttoo I notice.
EFA.Competing with Tesla on the funky wheels front
It probably won't compete in any other way,
If it's competitively priced it will also be interesting to see if there are supply problems like Kia/Hyundai have.
Gandahar said:
I'm afraid if you think that then you have not been reading enough twitter. There are comments currently that their stock price will exceed $1200 and they will have bigger market capatilisation than Toyota. They say at one point that Tesla is great in getting other car markers produce an electric car that competes, like the Taycan they come out with why it is worse. Also the Taycan will be a flop, and makes no money! They become vitriolic when threatened.
They detest legacy automakers because they don't have vertical integration and are not disruptive. Ford and GM are likely to go bust as they cannot move over to EV like Tesla can. You would have to be insane to buy any other car than Tesla, yep someone wrote that in all seriousness.
Your comment
"Most telsa fans are petrol heads too"
is not true from what I have read. They might be on PH, but not the general Tesla fan, they are actual software heads and more interested in FSD, the updates, the software in general. They are happy for their cars to drive them. Their general demographic for the noisy ones seems to be software engineer or similar, so that makes sense.
Amusingly they do think that the reason talk about the cult of Elon is that people don't like Musk or Tesla when actually it is due to them themselves with the way they act. I think that has passed them by because they tend to be in a bubble where bias confirmation is always to hand by other eager fanboys.
Getting back to the stock price I think this is one of the reasons for the large swings upwards on any news. The enthusiasm for the mission. And it is a mission, that's what they see it as.
And it seems to be working so far, at least as far as market capitalisation, now they are worth about $80b or maybe more, not checked since yesterday
I'm behind with posts on this 2nd volume, as you can tell, as someone mentioned, how many volumes will we have! It's a bit like Is this the end of the euro thread..
Back later where I talk about the Tesla Bubble......
You disagree that tesla fans are petrol heads too? BMW M3 was the 2nd most common trade in for a Tesla in 2018. Yes techies are attracted to the brand, but drivers are coming over too. Chris Harris is just one high profile example. They detest legacy automakers because they don't have vertical integration and are not disruptive. Ford and GM are likely to go bust as they cannot move over to EV like Tesla can. You would have to be insane to buy any other car than Tesla, yep someone wrote that in all seriousness.
Your comment
"Most telsa fans are petrol heads too"
is not true from what I have read. They might be on PH, but not the general Tesla fan, they are actual software heads and more interested in FSD, the updates, the software in general. They are happy for their cars to drive them. Their general demographic for the noisy ones seems to be software engineer or similar, so that makes sense.
Amusingly they do think that the reason talk about the cult of Elon is that people don't like Musk or Tesla when actually it is due to them themselves with the way they act. I think that has passed them by because they tend to be in a bubble where bias confirmation is always to hand by other eager fanboys.
Getting back to the stock price I think this is one of the reasons for the large swings upwards on any news. The enthusiasm for the mission. And it is a mission, that's what they see it as.
And it seems to be working so far, at least as far as market capitalisation, now they are worth about $80b or maybe more, not checked since yesterday
I'm behind with posts on this 2nd volume, as you can tell, as someone mentioned, how many volumes will we have! It's a bit like Is this the end of the euro thread..
Back later where I talk about the Tesla Bubble......
Interesting you say the hate is caused more by the owner behaviour than the car. I would agree in the sense that political extremism fuels the polarisation more than the cars do. For many social media users, the Tesla debate is a proxy for political debate around green energy, subsidy, automation, AI, globalisation, conservatism etc. These are hugely polarising topics which tend to cluster into two rival camps. But the 'bubble' is certainly not unique to one side. And it's not so much the behaviour that winds the other side up, as the political leanings.
The TSLAQ blocklist is perhaps the clearest sign that bears have their own bubble. I am blocked despite never having tweeted from that account, presumably due to liking tweets etc. But I do have a TSLAQ column in my tweetdeck so Im able to keep up with these views. I'm not denying there are folk who preach 1200$ share prices. But for every cult of Musk tweet, there is another tweet arguing that Musk is just days away from going to jail, or that Tesla has negative automotive gross margins ( lose more money the more cars they sell). Both of which are arguably as nonsensical as $1200 price targets.
Re Tesla share price it has always been volatile, mostly due to swing in sentiment on whether to value the company as a tech stock or an auto stock. I think the 'mission' only goes so far in persuading non retail investors to stay long. You may have very strong feelings that Tesla is strictly an auto stock only but the market has yet to reach the same consensus. Also, of course, tech stocks have high valuations in general. It's not just Tesla caught up in the euphoria.
For what it's worth, my opinion as an ex share holder, is 250 USD is a fair price for the stock, which is still high by auto standards. Volatility is to expected given that this auto / tech mix is rare. If it falls below 250 again I'll probably buy back in.
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 20th December 15:44
Tesla Design Studio's xmas party - Present are Cybertruck prototype, Cybertruck model, ATV and Roadster
Uuuuuurrr, Siiiiickkk! Beast! Bam!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXEeIwgZSoA
Uuuuuurrr, Siiiiickkk! Beast! Bam!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXEeIwgZSoA
Edited by hyphen on Friday 20th December 11:23
SWoll said:
hyphen said:
I don't think they have done enough and are far enough ahead at this stage when it's getting more real.
What they have done is built 'the' aspirational car brand for under 25's. Never seen so much interest in a mainstream car in my life as we have had in the last 2 weeks with the M3P.Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 18th December 15:10
The amount of passenger rides I've had to give to friends and family is ridiculous and once you start showing them some of the systems they only get more interested.
Went to visit some friends at the weekend and arrived to find their 14 year old son and 2 of his mates that had been sat waiting by the front door for us to arrive so I could take them out. Genuinely mental stuff.
Say what you want about Elon and the absolute quality of the cars but I guarantee other mainstream manufacturers would kill for that kind of excitement about their product.
I say that with a sense of the future and also the bitter taste in the back of my mouth as an old car lover. My rose tinted driving goggles have still not turned up for Christmas........
SWoll said:
hyphen said:
SWoll said:
, does 0-60 <3 seconds
Huh? Just checked and Tesla site says fastest 0-60 for 3 is 3.4??https://www.tesla.com/en_jo/model3
Independent testing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8hdGCunJso&t
jjwilde said:
The grasping at straws in this thread about how Tesla will fail is pure comedy.
The bigger picture: Record sales, record share price, record deliveries, still can't meet demand, billions in the bank.
'bUt nOne KnoWs whO thEy ArE'
I'm here for the lols now.
I thought their free cash balance was $5.3b recently but their outstanding debts were over $11b ? How does that equate to billions in the bank? The bigger picture: Record sales, record share price, record deliveries, still can't meet demand, billions in the bank.
'bUt nOne KnoWs whO thEy ArE'
I'm here for the lols now.
Record sales is good that was certainly the case in Q3. Tesla also said they could not meet demand and had `110 000 cars ready to go in Q4, and considering they have better delivery channels now with shipments to Europe and GF3 just creeping into delivering China demand I expect Tesla to sell 104 000 + of that 110 000 demand in Q4.
Anything less will be disappointing.
The share price goes up and down more than Aston Martins, my other love on here, so not impressed with that.
jjwilde said:
It can't possibly be being driven by the fact they are about to have a record quarter yet again then?
Don't worry Hyphen I'm sure that Tesla killer from BMW/VW/Toyota will be launched soon.... real soon...
The ID3 right? Top VW quality, they know how to make cars! Oh... https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-...
If you think they are going to have a killer quarter what's your EPS estimate? What's the main driver for that estimate?Don't worry Hyphen I'm sure that Tesla killer from BMW/VW/Toyota will be launched soon.... real soon...
The ID3 right? Top VW quality, they know how to make cars! Oh... https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-...
Edited by jjwilde on Friday 20th December 01:19
Sambucket said:
Gandahar said:
I'm afraid if you think that then you have not been reading enough twitter. There are comments currently that their stock price will exceed $1200 and they will have bigger market capatilisation than Toyota. They say at one point that Tesla is great in getting other car markers produce an electric car that competes, like the Taycan they come out with why it is worse. Also the Taycan will be a flop, and makes no money! They become vitriolic when threatened.
They detest legacy automakers because they don't have vertical integration and are not disruptive. Ford and GM are likely to go bust as they cannot move over to EV like Tesla can. You would have to be insane to buy any other car than Tesla, yep someone wrote that in all seriousness.
Your comment
"Most telsa fans are petrol heads too"
is not true from what I have read. They might be on PH, but not the general Tesla fan, they are actual software heads and more interested in FSD, the updates, the software in general. They are happy for their cars to drive them. Their general demographic for the noisy ones seems to be software engineer or similar, so that makes sense.
Amusingly they do think that the reason talk about the cult of Elon is that people don't like Musk or Tesla when actually it is due to them themselves with the way they act. I think that has passed them by because they tend to be in a bubble where bias confirmation is always to hand by other eager fanboys.
Getting back to the stock price I think this is one of the reasons for the large swings upwards on any news. The enthusiasm for the mission. And it is a mission, that's what they see it as.
And it seems to be working so far, at least as far as market capitalisation, now they are worth about $80b or maybe more, not checked since yesterday
I'm behind with posts on this 2nd volume, as you can tell, as someone mentioned, how many volumes will we have! It's a bit like Is this the end of the euro thread..
Back later where I talk about the Tesla Bubble......
You disagree that tesla fans are petrol heads too? BMW M3 was the 2nd most common trade in for a Tesla in 2018. Yes techies are attracted to the brand, but drivers are coming over too. Chris Harris is just one high profile example. They detest legacy automakers because they don't have vertical integration and are not disruptive. Ford and GM are likely to go bust as they cannot move over to EV like Tesla can. You would have to be insane to buy any other car than Tesla, yep someone wrote that in all seriousness.
Your comment
"Most telsa fans are petrol heads too"
is not true from what I have read. They might be on PH, but not the general Tesla fan, they are actual software heads and more interested in FSD, the updates, the software in general. They are happy for their cars to drive them. Their general demographic for the noisy ones seems to be software engineer or similar, so that makes sense.
Amusingly they do think that the reason talk about the cult of Elon is that people don't like Musk or Tesla when actually it is due to them themselves with the way they act. I think that has passed them by because they tend to be in a bubble where bias confirmation is always to hand by other eager fanboys.
Getting back to the stock price I think this is one of the reasons for the large swings upwards on any news. The enthusiasm for the mission. And it is a mission, that's what they see it as.
And it seems to be working so far, at least as far as market capitalisation, now they are worth about $80b or maybe more, not checked since yesterday
I'm behind with posts on this 2nd volume, as you can tell, as someone mentioned, how many volumes will we have! It's a bit like Is this the end of the euro thread..
Back later where I talk about the Tesla Bubble......
Interesting you say the hate is caused more by the owner behaviour than the car. I would agree in the sense that political extremism fuels the polarisation more than the cars do. For many social media users, the Tesla debate is a proxy for political debate around green energy, subsidy, automation, AI, globalisation, conservatism etc. These are hugely polarising topics which tend to cluster into two rival camps. But the 'bubble' is certainly not unique to one side. And it's not so much the behaviour that winds the other side up, as the political leanings.
The TSLAQ blocklist is perhaps the clearest sign that bears have their own bubble. I am blocked despite never having tweeted from that account, presumably due to liking tweets etc. But I do have a TSLAQ column in my tweetdeck so Im able to keep up with these views. I'm not denying there are folk who preach 1200$ share prices. But for every cult of Musk tweet, there is another tweet arguing that Musk is just days away from going to jail, or that Tesla has negative automotive gross margins ( lose more money the more cars they sell). Both of which are arguably as nonsensical as $1200 price targets.
Re Tesla share price it has always been volatile, mostly due to swing in sentiment on whether to value the company as a tech stock or an auto stock. I think the 'mission' only goes so far in persuading non retail investors to stay long. You may have very strong feelings that Tesla is strictly an auto stock only but the market has yet to reach the same consensus. Also, of course, tech stocks have high valuations in general. It's not just Tesla caught up in the euphoria.
For what it's worth, my opinion as an ex share holder, is 250 USD is a fair price for the stock, which is still high by auto standards. Volatility is to expected given that this auto / tech mix is rare. If it falls below 250 again I'll probably buy back in.
Edited by Sambucket on Friday 20th December 15:44
One point though, you said
"You disagree that tesla fans are petrol heads too? BMW M3 was the 2nd most common trade in for a Tesla in 2018. Yes techies are attracted to the brand, but drivers are coming over too. Chris Harris is just one high profile example. "
That's once again a UK view from a UK PH who likes electrons and sniffing petrol. If you spend a lot of time in the USA that rather is a small subset, like it is on here. In the USA forget the driving at all, it's just the brand.
I can give you examples, multitude of them, but here's one that shouts it more than anything, and it shows how little the average Tesla drivers know about cars, all people on here not included of course :-
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/17/tesla-model-s...
Tesla Model S Laps The Nürburgring In 7:23 — Crushing The Porsche Taycan
"The Tesla did have have the advantage of using race compound tires, but that doesn’t account for the almost 20 second advantage over the Porsche Taycan’s publicized lap time (7:42)."
they came up with this conclusion after looking at the Michelin page and came up with " Michelin itself says that the race compound gives a 0.5 second per km advantage around the Nordschleife, over the road-biased (and less expensive) variant"
But actually that was the advantage of the Michelin Cup 2 R over the Michelin Cup 2 which is obviously another track day tyre and not the Goodyear F1 or Michelin Pilot 4S the car comes on as standard. And it was not timed properly but even so ... the next day that extremely biased Tesla site claimed
Tesla’s Leadership At Nürburgring Is A Win For Everyone
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/18/teslas-leader...
An amazing conclusion from someone who knows jack s
t about the Nurburgring, probably never even heard of it before Elon went forth. Her summary bio is"Johnna Crider Johnna Crider is a Baton Rouge artist, gem and mineral collector, and Tesla shareholder who believes in Elon Musk and Tesla. Elon Musk advised her in 2018 to “Believe in Good.” Tesla is one of many good things to believe in. You can find Johnna on Twitter"
This hogwash summarises the whole Tesla Fanboy ongoing saga over there on the West Coast of America.
None of them had a clue when it came to the Nurburgring. So in summary linking Tesla people apart from here to car lovers is not right.,
I know I have started to rant and flecked my keyboard with spittle, but they just wind me up. Might have to watch a youtube music video to calm me down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atnzTvJL-2g&fe...
Edited by Gandahar on Friday 20th December 19:54
hyphen said:
Tesla Design Studio's xmas party - Present are Cybertruck prototype, Cybertruck model, ATV and Roadster
Uuuuuurrr, Siiiiickkk! Beast! Bam!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXEeIwgZSoA
It's going to be suuuuurrrick watching that get through NCAP.Uuuuuurrr, Siiiiickkk! Beast! Bam!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXEeIwgZSoA
Edited by hyphen on Friday 20th December 11:23
Getting back to the Tesla Bubble, or considering the Christmas time, the Tesla Bauble.
Is the current stock price of $400 overvalued short term and long term?
Taking the short term,
1. Tesla got a good Q3 earnings report due to cost cutting, FIAT energy credit payments and software FSD partial goals brought forward that gave them a $100m plus profit far in expectation of the loss expected.
2. Analyst gave them a $400 share rating.
3. Cybertruck anounced, perhaps 300 000 $100 deposits.
4. GF3 rolling out cars before year end.
5. Analyst gives them $500 rating.
So in the short term can this bubble continue? This is tricky because Tesla shares are not dependent on just car sales but on lots of other factors due to the interest on both sides. If that was not the case then I would say that the sales volumes announced in early January will be slightly less then expected, but I think that will be superceded by the fact that on their January earning call they might exceed profit expectations if they have continued to cost cut and put all those Cybertruck $100 deposits on the books as a profit. That will keep the ball rolling. Big Baubles !
Long term they need to do the old fashioned bit of selling lots, paying of debts etc etc so they will have to be canny enough to plot the best path in more and more congested waters.
Is the current stock price of $400 overvalued short term and long term?
Taking the short term,
1. Tesla got a good Q3 earnings report due to cost cutting, FIAT energy credit payments and software FSD partial goals brought forward that gave them a $100m plus profit far in expectation of the loss expected.
2. Analyst gave them a $400 share rating.
3. Cybertruck anounced, perhaps 300 000 $100 deposits.
4. GF3 rolling out cars before year end.
5. Analyst gives them $500 rating.
So in the short term can this bubble continue? This is tricky because Tesla shares are not dependent on just car sales but on lots of other factors due to the interest on both sides. If that was not the case then I would say that the sales volumes announced in early January will be slightly less then expected, but I think that will be superceded by the fact that on their January earning call they might exceed profit expectations if they have continued to cost cut and put all those Cybertruck $100 deposits on the books as a profit. That will keep the ball rolling. Big Baubles !
Long term they need to do the old fashioned bit of selling lots, paying of debts etc etc so they will have to be canny enough to plot the best path in more and more congested waters.
hyphen said:
Gandahar said:
So in the short term can this bubble continue?
Model Y is out soonish, so yes, if it is any good then Tesla will have a good 2020 and 2021.Model 3 is still going fine circa today, can it continue that until the Y arrives? I think it has plateaued .
I'm not convinced actual Tesla sales will still increasing in Jan to March next year, but lets see. The model Y should take up the slack after then and before all the rest of the world piles in in late 20/ early 21.
Zcd1 said:
Your fella said:Once barnes & noble catches up to amazon ..."
"Once blockbuster catches up to netflix ..."
That's the problem with being disrupted by technology: you can't get back the market-share you lost when you were behind
But it's not looking at Blockbuster catching up to Netflix as he incorrectly says, it's looking at Disney catching up to Netflix.
His examples are retailers of predominantly other peoples products, not manufacturers of their own. And bricks & mortar being slow to adopt digital has no relevance neither I would say, that was a whole new world.
These are just mostly the same cars, same sales models, same everything aside from the differences due to powersource.
He says how kids are growing up with Tesla? Cybertruck aside, only nerd kids will be putting up Tesla posters on their bedroom walls and aspiring to have one surely?
Edited by hyphen on Friday 20th December 21:27
hyphen said:
He says how kids are growing up with Tesla? Cybertruck aside, only nerd kids will be putting up Tesla posters on their bedroom walls and aspiring to have one surely?
You're underestimating it again based on zero experience. Picking my lad up from school over the past 2 weeks I've ended up taking 5-10 different mates of his home because they all want to say they've been in a Tesla. Edited by hyphen on Friday 20th December 21:27
These are 15 year old far from nerdy lads who come from homes with big Mercs, BMW's and Audi's on the drive.
ZesPak said:
Seconded, no car I've ever had pulls this much attention and interest.
And a lot by people who have no interest in cars whatsoever.
And that's a good thing. I think it was Matt Farah who said 'they're the perfect car for people who don't give a sAnd a lot by people who have no interest in cars whatsoever.
t about cars'. People who drive diesel Qashqais need to be switching en masse to electric cars to reduce their climate and pollution impact and to prevent punitive legislation being imposed on older cars.As for appealing to kids, the Tesla is basically a smartphone on wheels with a fart mode. It's almost like kids are it's target demographic!
Incidentally, Chris Harris has said he's considering cancelling his order for a Model 3, primarily because he doesn't want to be associated with other Tesla owners!
NDNDNDND said:
Incidentally, Chris Harris has said he's considering cancelling his order for a Model 3, primarily because he doesn't want to be associated with other Tesla owners!
The longer he's worked on TG the more of a tw*t he's become, it's like they're paying him to try and be the new Clarkson.Used to be a massive fan of his youtube channel but just find him irritating most of the time nowadays as he slowly disappears up his own arse. A real shame, but I suppose that's what a little fame does to some people.
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