Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
I think this is interesting
https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/ge-november-2018
NOVEMBER 11, 2018 BY THE CREW AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT
General Electric was the world’s most valuable company in 2000 worth $480 billion, today it is worth $75 billion
Today in Jan 2020 GE is worth $100b and Tesla is worth $100b give or take.
The old v the new.
Gandahar said:
I think this is an excellent post by Rob on the current advantage Tesla has. It's a great summary.
However, sometimes having your won integrated technology , ie vertical integration, where you own the supply chain, can be roses today but then deadly nightshade the next if technology moves on.
I'll give a counter point....
Tesla own all their battery tech and make hay whilst the sun shines. Other people scrabble around.
The other folk find a new battery manufacturer that can do solid state or some other tech. They quickly change over. They don't have any capital expenditure based on the old tech as not vertically integrated.
I don't know if that will ever happen, but technology always has a way of biting you on the ass, especially if it is the new frontier... as is battery technology in Jan 2020.
Long term perhaps it won't be batteries and we'll all have Mr fusion in our cars or teleorters etc. However, sometimes having your won integrated technology , ie vertical integration, where you own the supply chain, can be roses today but then deadly nightshade the next if technology moves on.
I'll give a counter point....
Tesla own all their battery tech and make hay whilst the sun shines. Other people scrabble around.
The other folk find a new battery manufacturer that can do solid state or some other tech. They quickly change over. They don't have any capital expenditure based on the old tech as not vertically integrated.
I don't know if that will ever happen, but technology always has a way of biting you on the ass, especially if it is the new frontier... as is battery technology in Jan 2020.
For a good long time it's batteries, chemistry and makeup can be argued over but I don't think tesla is on a bad position there, owning 2 of the best companies for making battery making machinery etc
Its likely that any current manufacturing can take advantage of new chemistry without too much adaptation.
Gandahar said:
Nothings happened to the legacy car manufacturer's in that regard , stop scaremongering / making things up.
We are talking components here that goes into a car, not the bloody factories ,
Stop changing the subject, very bigly it seems,,......................
Same concept, incumbents have large investments that are made worthless with newer technology.We are talking components here that goes into a car, not the bloody factories ,
Stop changing the subject, very bigly it seems,,......................
Look up the prices of New York taxi medallions.
That aside, what's going on with the headcount Jaguar this month and Audi last november? Oh even Mercedes. There's something going on that's for sure.
jamoor said:
Same concept, incumbents have large investments that are made worthless with newer technology.
I think the point is that very little of the overall investment in Ford is in the place that makes the engines. Engines turn up at the factory and are stuck in the relevant chassis. For the main factories, it's irrelevant whether it's a fuel tank and a V8, or a fuel tank and a diesel lump, or a battery and a couple of motors. They turn up in a crate and get put in the relevant hole. 
Sure, it's non-zero, but most of the factories aren't predicated on what fuel goes into the car. And trained workers are trained workers, regardless.
Tuna said:
jamoor said:
Same concept, incumbents have large investments that are made worthless with newer technology.
I think the point is that very little of the overall investment in Ford is in the place that makes the engines. Engines turn up at the factory and are stuck in the relevant chassis. For the main factories, it's irrelevant whether it's a fuel tank and a V8, or a fuel tank and a diesel lump, or a battery and a couple of motors. They turn up in a crate and get put in the relevant hole. Sure, it's non-zero, but most of the factories aren't predicated on what fuel goes into the car. And trained workers are trained workers, regardless.
Tuna said:
jamoor said:
How many people are needed to install an engine vs install a motor then?
You tell me. From what I've seen on factory tours, engine installation is a pretty efficient process. Are you claiming that an electric motor needs dramatically fewer people to install it?It’s not number of people, it’s man hours required.
I don't think instillation of the ice power train is an issue, its the tens of thousands employed making them plus the huge factories..
Germany has already shed about 55,000 jobs with 800k remaining, a fair chunk of that in engine making.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-autos/g...
Germany has already shed about 55,000 jobs with 800k remaining, a fair chunk of that in engine making.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-autos/g...
Audi having supply issues also.. Temp workers let go and short hours on etron production...
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_...
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_...
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/01/tesla-needs-t...
Autopilot by Tesla is pretty trick, but I do agree with the recommendations by the senator. The name implies it’s more capable than it really is but the main problem is that, sadly, people are stupid and cannot be trusted: many examples of people circumventing the attention monitor and kicking back in the seat.
I think the name could survive but an eye based attention tracker or similar is probably a better solution than relying on the steering column torque sensor.
Autopilot by Tesla is pretty trick, but I do agree with the recommendations by the senator. The name implies it’s more capable than it really is but the main problem is that, sadly, people are stupid and cannot be trusted: many examples of people circumventing the attention monitor and kicking back in the seat.
I think the name could survive but an eye based attention tracker or similar is probably a better solution than relying on the steering column torque sensor.
RobDickinson said:
I don't think instillation of the ice power train is an issue, its the tens of thousands employed making them plus the huge factories..
Germany has already shed about 55,000 jobs with 800k remaining, a fair chunk of that in engine making.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-autos/g...
Surely the vast proportion of those job losses are just down to the way the market’s been in the last couple of years? New car sales overall are significantly down. Germany has already shed about 55,000 jobs with 800k remaining, a fair chunk of that in engine making.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-autos/g...
As the article says, there’s a broader shift away from ICE to electric motors but I wouldn’t think it’s the main issue here just now, especially as most manufacturers will still be making ICE for hybrids for the foreseeable.
Seeing a tslaq tweeter saying that due to coronavirus, the Chinese Tesla factory might have trouble
https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/12213376623...
no idea if it is accurate or not
https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/12213376623...
no idea if it is accurate or not
RobDickinson said:
I don't think instillation of the ice power train is an issue, its the tens of thousands employed making them plus the huge factories.
It would be interesting to compare the labour, time to install and so on - it's not as cut and dried as some would say. Of course there are tens of thousands making them - there are tens of millions of cars using them. How many are involved in making the motors and ancillaries for the fraction of a million Teslas?REALIST123 said:
As the article says, there’s a broader shift away from ICE to electric motors but I wouldn’t think it’s the main issue here just now, especially as most manufacturers will still be making ICE for hybrids for the foreseeable.
Think there are a couple of things coming together. Market generally slowing down after a decade or so of growth (usual cycle), China also not safe growth wise, fears of protectionism from the US and a bit of brexit. All this is not an ideal economic background and ultimately leads to over capacity and a desire to reduce staffing levels. Then there's the shift to EVs, IMO closely related to the Co2 reduction targets. Manufacturers have not been happy with the regulators, affects their bottom lines after all. They've been moaning all throughout the process, threatening with job losses. "If you do this to us, 100.000s of jobs will be lost" (loosely quoting some VW spokesperson from few months back).
They are likely now making true their promises, including theatrics, to put pressure on politics. They have to do it anyway due to macro economics. But perhaps they can milk a relaxation of the rules from it? I can see this happening, but only if there is a real economic slowdown.
What I found really interesting is how strong the incentives are to push EVs in the market (EU).
Was only looking at the consumer side incentives, which all in all aren't bad, but not gigantic in most countries. Couple of k € usually, and some BIK reductions. But what seems to be much bigger is the effect of EV production on the Co2 fleet average fines. Depending on circumstances, shifting an EV can lead to a Co2 fine reduction of up to €18k for the manufacturer. Really good (but long) blog post here [1] that explains how this works.
Think the EV adoption in EU will pick up a good deal of pace, now that the effects from Co2 regulations really start hurting. And IMO that's what the major manufacturers are using as time line for their EV programmes.
Not a fan of the way this is being regulated, but I think it's almost a moral requirement for PHers to join the EV crowd. Buy a Tesla, save an Alfa
.[1] https://skranz.github.io/r/2020/01/14/eu_cars_co2_...
Otispunkmeyer said:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/01/tesla-needs-t...
Autopilot by Tesla is pretty trick, but I do agree with the recommendations by the senator. The name implies it’s more capable than it really is but the main problem is that, sadly, people are stupid and cannot be trusted: many examples of people circumventing the attention monitor and kicking back in the seat.
I said almost exactly the same thing around six months ago on this very forum, and was roundly lambasted by the Tesla faithful.Autopilot by Tesla is pretty trick, but I do agree with the recommendations by the senator. The name implies it’s more capable than it really is but the main problem is that, sadly, people are stupid and cannot be trusted: many examples of people circumventing the attention monitor and kicking back in the seat.
https://youtu.be/_uRwZRPQ8RE
Autoline after hours with Sandy Monroe on the Cybertruck.
Sandy's guys have done their homework and had a good stab at what they think the cybertruck tooling will cost. High praise from Monroe and associates in general about the truck.
You do have to bare the autoline hosts though, they're a pair of bozos.
Autoline after hours with Sandy Monroe on the Cybertruck.
Sandy's guys have done their homework and had a good stab at what they think the cybertruck tooling will cost. High praise from Monroe and associates in general about the truck.
You do have to bare the autoline hosts though, they're a pair of bozos.
RobDickinson said:
Gitlin is a paid up member of the tslaq team I'd just discount every single word he has to write about tesla.
He's only reported what a senator said. I find Gitlin to be quite fair in his pieces to be honest (and I do read all of them). But then I have no dog in the fight.Discounting what others say because you don't like or don't agree with them is why we're in this highly polarised , echo chamber mess.
Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Sunday 26th January 19:43
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