Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
There's some interesting figures in that accounting.
Freemont has Model 3 capacity of 400,000 going up to 500,000 this year. 2019 production - 302000
Freemont has Model S/X capacity of 90000. 2019 production - 70000
Automotive revenue up just 1% on last year.
Gross profit down 7% on last year.
Capital expenditure up 27% on last year.
All of which is understandable given they are knocking out cheaper cars in much higher quantities and spending vast sums on new factories and upgrading current factory equipment for the new Model.
Interesting results from what I can see so far. Not sure why the Freemont factory isn't running at full tilt and seems to be down around 100k cars on its current capacity. Maybe demand isn't as strong as many think?
Again, another interesting year ahead for those of us who like to follow this company. The Model Y will be a different one than the usual new car launches from Tesla. From what I can see it's mostly the same as the Model 3 but with a hatchback rather that in the past a massive change from previous models.
Anyone like to wager it'll have something new and different that hasn't been unveiled yet?
Freemont has Model 3 capacity of 400,000 going up to 500,000 this year. 2019 production - 302000
Freemont has Model S/X capacity of 90000. 2019 production - 70000
Automotive revenue up just 1% on last year.
Gross profit down 7% on last year.
Capital expenditure up 27% on last year.
All of which is understandable given they are knocking out cheaper cars in much higher quantities and spending vast sums on new factories and upgrading current factory equipment for the new Model.
Interesting results from what I can see so far. Not sure why the Freemont factory isn't running at full tilt and seems to be down around 100k cars on its current capacity. Maybe demand isn't as strong as many think?
Again, another interesting year ahead for those of us who like to follow this company. The Model Y will be a different one than the usual new car launches from Tesla. From what I can see it's mostly the same as the Model 3 but with a hatchback rather that in the past a massive change from previous models.
Anyone like to wager it'll have something new and different that hasn't been unveiled yet?
Smiljan said:
Interesting results from what I can see so far. Not sure why the Freemont factory isn't running at full tilt and seems to be down around 100k cars on its current capacity. Maybe demand isn't as strong as many think?
Again, another interesting year ahead for those of us who like to follow this company. The Model Y will be a different one than the usual new car launches from Tesla. From what I can see it's mostly the same as the Model 3 but with a hatchback rather that in the past a massive change from previous models.
Anyone like to wager it'll have something new and different that hasn't been unveiled yet?
They've been cell/pack limited I think - plus additional machinery, remember the site under Nummi produced far less of the cars than they do now, more assembly than anything.Again, another interesting year ahead for those of us who like to follow this company. The Model Y will be a different one than the usual new car launches from Tesla. From what I can see it's mostly the same as the Model 3 but with a hatchback rather that in the past a massive change from previous models.
Anyone like to wager it'll have something new and different that hasn't been unveiled yet?
We suspect the model Y has new stuff, the new wiring at least, plus the cast aluminium rear section etc, lower weight etc and efficiency has already increased from 280mile range to 315.
JPJPJP said:
Thanks JP, I'm not familiar with US share trading. Does that mean they keep trading after the stock market closed? or is a predictive price at the next days opening?Right,.someone help me out here, I'm baffled.
The market seems to be reacting as if teslas rewults were amazeballs. However, it looks like quarterly they did worse than a year ago, and for the full year, they lost an epic amount of money again. That is in a quarter where they destockedto the tune of 6 days worth of sales.
There are also 2/ contradictory graphs with the same headings.
Am i missing something? Ok losing less money than last year is an mprovement, but it's still far from a decent profit. Yet the market seems to think that Tesla is worth squillions.. Ok i get that some feel tesla are the future, but what is the amazingly good news that people read in todays announcement to go up from 520-620 ish?
![](https://thumbsnap.com/sc/mvsZxVrm.png[/img]</a> <a href="https://thumbsnap.com/BGhR7hth" Target="_blank" rel="nofollow">[img]https://thumbsnap.com/sc/BGhR7hth.png)
The market seems to be reacting as if teslas rewults were amazeballs. However, it looks like quarterly they did worse than a year ago, and for the full year, they lost an epic amount of money again. That is in a quarter where they destockedto the tune of 6 days worth of sales.
There are also 2/ contradictory graphs with the same headings.
Am i missing something? Ok losing less money than last year is an mprovement, but it's still far from a decent profit. Yet the market seems to think that Tesla is worth squillions.. Ok i get that some feel tesla are the future, but what is the amazingly good news that people read in todays announcement to go up from 520-620 ish?
Smiljan said:
Interesting results from what I can see so far. Not sure why the Freemont factory isn't running at full tilt and seems to be down around 100k cars on its current capacity. Maybe demand isn't as strong as many think?
Because they haven’t started selling the car that makes up the other 100k yet....Some Gump said:
Right,.someone help me out here, I'm baffled.
11 days stock left at end of quarter.500k build rate for 3/y at fremont = +200k pa over 2019
150k build rate in China
+fixed costs
So +350k build rate by mid year, 500k+ for 2020 easy.
ASP will remain constant because they wont be introducing lower priced models this year like they did with the 3
+ semi etc
They will end 2020 with a 700k+ build rate + semi etc.
RobDickinson said:
They've been cell/pack limited I think - plus additional machinery, remember the site under Nummi produced far less of the cars than they do now, more assembly than anything.
We suspect the model Y has new stuff, the new wiring at least, plus the cast aluminium rear section etc, lower weight etc and efficiency has already increased from 280mile range to 315.
That's the question we can't answer isn't it. The factory has a capacity of 400k but only produced 300k. Is it because there was only demand for 300k or was it because they couldn't produce 400k due to other factors?We suspect the model Y has new stuff, the new wiring at least, plus the cast aluminium rear section etc, lower weight etc and efficiency has already increased from 280mile range to 315.
As for the Model Y, the wiring, lower weight etc.. aren't things that'll get the juices running for the buyers. I was think more like the fancy doors on the Model X or the complete change from S to 3.
It'll be good to follow, to see if many 3 owners switch to Y and how that affects 2nd hand prices or if there really is demand there for similar numbers of both to sell. 500k capacity this year at Freemont would mean same Model 3 sales as last year PLUS 200k Model Y on top. That'd help produce a decent amount of profit.
No mention of an S or X refresh either which was a bit of surprise. Sales are still decent and there must be higher margins in those legacy models than the newer ones.
JPJPJP said:
Pre empting tslaq
Q419 turnover is up vs Q418, profit is down
Inventory is higher
Accounts payable up (by $900m)
Q419 turnover is up vs Q418, profit is down
Inventory is higher
Accounts payable up (by $900m)
Good sales on Model X and S with good margin. However solar sales still look poor.
So currently Tesla are still a car company with their car factories, and not a tech company......
JD said:
Smiljan said:
Interesting results from what I can see so far. Not sure why the Freemont factory isn't running at full tilt and seems to be down around 100k cars on its current capacity. Maybe demand isn't as strong as many think?
Because they haven’t started selling the car that makes up the other 100k yet....JD said:
Because they haven’t started selling the car that makes up the other 100k yet....
That would be worrying. They were meant to be fighting people off with s
tty sticks, not waiting for the next model to make up numbers.Agree with the odd analysis here. They're looking more and more like 'just' a car company. That's an achievement in its own right, but not one that makes them worth more than VW. Progress last year was not nearly as exciting as predicted.
Tuna said:
That would be worrying. They were meant to be fighting people off with stty sticks, not waiting for the next model to make up numbers.
Agree with the odd analysis here. They're looking more and more like 'just' a car company. That's an achievement in its own right, but not one that makes them worth more than VW. Progress last year was not nearly as exciting as predicted.
currently 638 reasons you are wrong...tty sticks, not waiting for the next model to make up numbers.Agree with the odd analysis here. They're looking more and more like 'just' a car company. That's an achievement in its own right, but not one that makes them worth more than VW. Progress last year was not nearly as exciting as predicted.
JPJPJP said:
Shares are up to over $620
That's the fanboys at work ! Up 11% on reduced profits !AMD meanwhile diid $170m profits, and cut their debt, but got hammered by the stock market .....
Tesla is bought by millenial wannabees in the USA who are on a roll financially at the moment to Donald Trump cutting taxes. They won' thank Trump, but it is he who is paying them all over there to gamble, sorry, invest ....
Tech stocks over there are the current darlings, it's going to burst though ....
4-8pm electronic share trading when the traditional market has closed.Smiljan said:
JPJPJP said:
Thanks JP, I'm not familiar with US share trading. Does that mean they keep trading after the stock market closed? or is a predictive price at the next days opening?Which is good because you can get on the bandwagon, or fall off it
, early. Downside is that because it is reduced trading the fluctuations are larger so you can get burnt badly if you pay too much or sell too little when the normal markets open up.Current big share traders see it as an amateur thing. I see it as a sign for 24/7 trading as per how all things are going.
Smiljan said:
They're increasing capacity by another 100k this year to cope with that. Seems daft to deliberately build less cars than you can through a whole year........unless you can't shift them.
I think you have misread the information.The text says current capacity of model 3 AND model Y combined at 400k pa
They haven't started selling the Y yet, and only started building it this month, so of course there are no sales figures for it yet.
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