Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
ZesPak said:
Basically he believes that Tesla and the Chinese companies will grow, while "legacy" manufacturers will shrink. Now that's something I hadn't heard and seems hard to fathom at this point. But even earlier in this video he talks about his time with Ford and how they didn't believe the Japanese were going to be an issue...
Legacy manufacturers have their whole company's built around tradition ICE / servicing / visiting dealer's for updates, For some, ICE powertrains were their core business. To completely revise the company and platform architecture in a short space of time is a huge task.I don't know if Tesla will continue to grow but 100% EV companies have a big advantage over legacy companies that are having to focus on EV plus ICE.
WestyCarl said:
ZesPak said:
Basically he believes that Tesla and the Chinese companies will grow, while "legacy" manufacturers will shrink. Now that's something I hadn't heard and seems hard to fathom at this point. But even earlier in this video he talks about his time with Ford and how they didn't believe the Japanese were going to be an issue...
Legacy manufacturers have their whole company's built around tradition ICE / servicing / visiting dealer's for updates, For some, ICE powertrains were their core business. To completely revise the company and platform architecture in a short space of time is a huge task.I don't know if Tesla will continue to grow but 100% EV companies have a big advantage over legacy companies that are having to focus on EV plus ICE.
There is a benefit in having existing plants for the rest of the vehicle. The powertrain, whilst a major component, is not all the work that is involved in making a vehicle. VW has clearly showed that if you want to do it you can transition quickly. They have managed to get MEB based applications in production in 3 different regions with 8 models very quickly compared to Tesla. Tesla made a big deal about building a new plant quicker but the reality is that retrofitting an existing line can be even faster.
There is no clear answer on who will win, it is likely that some legacy OEMs fail or decline and Tesla continue to grow but it is extremely unlikely that Tesla and other new OEMs in China and USA take over completely either.
As the rest of the car apart from the drive train is still fundamentally the same as an ICE car then its no surprised that major manufacturers can adapt quickly. You still need pressing, BiW, paint, trim, chassis lines. You can just do away with an engine dressing line now.
Electric drive train components can now be dropped in at different stages of production now as well, saving more spaces and streamlining things.
If Tesla can't even get the non-electric things right then they'll end up falling behind very quickly.
Electric drive train components can now be dropped in at different stages of production now as well, saving more spaces and streamlining things.
If Tesla can't even get the non-electric things right then they'll end up falling behind very quickly.
ZesPak said:
Interesting take from Munro, he's been quite taken with Tesla ever sinds his TM3 and MY teardown, but he's always interesting to listen to as he's got a lot of engineering knowledge about these cars.
https://youtu.be/sIQwsbTjJ0g?t=753
Basically he believes that Tesla and the Chinese companies will grow, while "legacy" manufacturers will shrink. Now that's something I hadn't heard and seems hard to fathom at this point. But even earlier in this video he talks about his time with Ford and how they didn't believe the Japanese were going to be an issue...
PS: His comment on the i3 just before this is quite spot on in my opinion. I know he teared one down completely but his take is simply: it's an incredible package that's let down hugely by its styling.
In some ways he is very correct, in others he is a bit biased.https://youtu.be/sIQwsbTjJ0g?t=753
Basically he believes that Tesla and the Chinese companies will grow, while "legacy" manufacturers will shrink. Now that's something I hadn't heard and seems hard to fathom at this point. But even earlier in this video he talks about his time with Ford and how they didn't believe the Japanese were going to be an issue...
PS: His comment on the i3 just before this is quite spot on in my opinion. I know he teared one down completely but his take is simply: it's an incredible package that's let down hugely by its styling.
He is very pro US and this bias factors into some of his opinions.
On the existing OEMs losing, as always I think he is half right, some of them have been in decline for some time and any lack of investment for the transition now will probably be the death of them, but don't underestimate unusual innovation options from these OEMs.
Sometimes they are lucky and hit on the next big thing.
ZesPak said:
annodomini2 said:
In some ways he is very correct, in others he is a bit biased.
He is very pro US and this bias factors into some of his opinions.
He is very pro US and this bias factors into some of his opinions.
Pro-us saying that Chinese manufacturers going to be big?He knows from experience with the Japanese that the Chinese are going to try and price gouge the market, this is where the western OEMS are going to struggle.
Ok, gotcha 
He is pretty pro-Tesla in his teardowns, I think not particularly because he rates the build high rather than the cleverness/novelty of some stuff, and the fact that they seem very agile between builds (or: figuring it out as they go).
He is pretty pro-Tesla in his teardowns, I think not particularly because he rates the build high rather than the cleverness/novelty of some stuff, and the fact that they seem very agile between builds (or: figuring it out as they go).
Edited by ZesPak on Friday 4th June 10:47
SWoll said:
annodomini2 said:
Look at the Xpeng P7, comparable in certain ways to an M3 LR, but it's £27k
£35k according to Autocar, and you can be sure it'll cost a lot more than that if they start selling them in the UK? Does look good though.And it would get the full federal grant too! But not for sale yet and from what I can see, no fixed date yet either. Will be interesting when it does come to the US though.
Jan 27th 2021
Elon Musk said:
"The Model S Plaid, and we're actually in production now, and we'll be delivering next month..."
June 6th 2021Elon Musk said:
Plaid+ is canceled. No need, as Plaid is just so good.
The guy just keeps on lying and lying and lying again and again. From the comments I’m reading of people who actually ordered the + it was the range they wanted not just another few tenths off the 0-60. WTF is this company doing?Smiljan said:
Jan 27th 2021
Not sure what you're getting at or if you're implying the two are related as the Plaid+ and Plaid are different models, there are car parks full of the new MS waiting for delivery (and the missing part or software). I'd agree production diodn;t start in Jan, not unless you count preproduction cars (yes, I see the irony in producing pre preproduction cars)Elon Musk said:
"The Model S Plaid, and we're actually in production now, and we'll be delivering next month..."
June 6th 2021Elon Musk said:
Plaid+ is canceled. No need, as Plaid is just so good.
The guy just keeps on lying and lying and lying again and again. From the comments I’m reading of people who actually ordered the + it was the range they wanted not just another few tenths off the 0-60. WTF is this company doing?The Plaid+ was not due until the end of the year at best but canning it is the first time I think he's ever done such a thing
Edited by Heres Johnny on Monday 7th June 08:39
Thanks Johnny, considering he lied about deliveries in Jan of the Plaid and the + not now due anyway until late next year in your opinion why would the cancel the +?
There are some options
Musk not lying for a change, Plaid has same spec as + so no point
New battery tech needed for the + proving more difficult than they thought.
Not enough orders to make it worthwhile.
Never intended to build a + Model in the first place it was all lies again.
Why would he say cars are being produced and ready for delivery in Jan when clearly 5 months later none have been delivered? Only one explanation - he was lying.
Let’s not forget he had an extreme financial incentive to keep the stock price high for a period to extract billions personally as part of his contract with Tesla. Looking from where I’m sitting those lies seem to make this the most logical explanation.
There are some options
Musk not lying for a change, Plaid has same spec as + so no point
New battery tech needed for the + proving more difficult than they thought.
Not enough orders to make it worthwhile.
Never intended to build a + Model in the first place it was all lies again.
Why would he say cars are being produced and ready for delivery in Jan when clearly 5 months later none have been delivered? Only one explanation - he was lying.
Let’s not forget he had an extreme financial incentive to keep the stock price high for a period to extract billions personally as part of his contract with Tesla. Looking from where I’m sitting those lies seem to make this the most logical explanation.
Edited by Smiljan on Monday 7th June 08:45
Laughable, but to be expected I suppose. Assuming the Plaid can take back the 1/4 mile crown from the Taycan Turbo S with a <10 second time for £35k less the job is done and YouTube will go mental.
I wonder when we'll se the tri-motor setup, maybe saving it for the Roadster (if it ever turns up)
I wonder when we'll se the tri-motor setup, maybe saving it for the Roadster (if it ever turns up)
I always likened the + to Ludicrous mode on the old S but it looks like the Plaid is the ludicrous one so no need for the +
The real 0-60 is a little higher than they quote as they don't include rollout in that time but I'm still waiting to see where it ends, can they get any lower with road tyres and will the Roadster actually be even quicker?
The quarter mile time is nuts but sadly Tesla can invalidate the warranty on any car that is used for competition so I don't see many risking weekend drag racing until it's out of warranty. Fortunately there are lots of long straight roads in the US
The roadster really will have to be something else if this Plaid S is actually as good as they're saying!
On another note, if the Plaid+ is gone what does that mean for the Cybertruk? Weren't they due to share most of the components? Battery, drive motors, etc...
I'm hoping this weeks delivery event is something worth watching and that Tesla have been sandbagging all sorts of new features but a tiny piece of me expects it to be a lot of screeching from sycophantic fans.
The real 0-60 is a little higher than they quote as they don't include rollout in that time but I'm still waiting to see where it ends, can they get any lower with road tyres and will the Roadster actually be even quicker?
The quarter mile time is nuts but sadly Tesla can invalidate the warranty on any car that is used for competition so I don't see many risking weekend drag racing until it's out of warranty. Fortunately there are lots of long straight roads in the US
The roadster really will have to be something else if this Plaid S is actually as good as they're saying!
On another note, if the Plaid+ is gone what does that mean for the Cybertruk? Weren't they due to share most of the components? Battery, drive motors, etc...
I'm hoping this weeks delivery event is something worth watching and that Tesla have been sandbagging all sorts of new features but a tiny piece of me expects it to be a lot of screeching from sycophantic fans.
ZesPak said:
My thoughts indeed. Tesla has the drivetrain head start, legacy manufacturers had everything but the drivetrain.
Monroe was also taking into account the giant castings Tesla are going to use and the new structutal battery with its x10 production rate increase should mean Tesla can produce cars cheaper than their ICE equivalants and substantially cheaper than any other EV currently (thats not built using slave labour)There are other ways Tesla is ahead like their massive reduction in wiring looms or their clever use of pumps / cooling heating systems
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary...
https://www.libertyplugins.com/blog/2019/01/08/how...
And their tech and app works so reliably, something alot of legacy car manufacturers struggle with. Even over the air updates are regular and hassle free.
Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Monday 7th June 10:00
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