Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[oop north]

skwdenyer said:

Panasonic invested in Tesla to get a return. Selling their shares for a return of around 155% pa over 11 years seems a smart thing to do - what benefit holding further? Hardly seems like a vote of no confidence to me - more like canny timing.

155% over 11 years seems rather poor. I thought Tesla stock had done more than that in the last couple of years

[Burwood]

oop north said:

skwdenyer said:

Panasonic invested in Tesla to get a return. Selling their shares for a return of around 155% pa over 11 years seems a smart thing to do - what benefit holding further? Hardly seems like a vote of no confidence to me - more like canny timing.

155% over 11 years seems rather poor. I thought Tesla stock had done more than that in the last couple of years

The 155% is wrong. Panasonic purchased 1.4M shares at $21 and change each in 2010. When the stock split 5:1 they held 7Million shares. They sold off some a while back but the Lions Share was sold last quarter for 3.6B. The gain is hard to calculate because they did sell shares previously but if they didn't and sold 7m @$600 that's 4.2B from a $30m (odd) investment or 140X their investment (14,000%) or a compounded annual return of 57% which isn't too shabby

Edited to add-the 155% above is just bad journalism. If you use 55% as a compounded return (1.55)^11 you arrive at 30m to 3.6B. they have wrongly stated 155% compounded growth rate.

Edited by Burwood on Friday 25th June 11:45

[TheRainMaker]

ZesPak said:

Hell, this forum used to be a TVR forum.

It still is, over 2.5 million posts, the next marque would be Porsche with around 1.4 million.

Tesla are on 467

[Burwood]

TheRainMaker said:

ZesPak said:

Hell, this forum used to be a TVR forum.

It still is, over 2.5 million posts, the next marque would be Porsche with around 1.4 million.

Tesla are on 467

That's why I joined. A recalcitrant Chimp 450. Not the most unreliable car I've owned. Got me a whooper of an SP30

[aparna]

TheRainMaker said:

It still is, over 2.5 million posts, the next marque would be Porsche with around 1.4 million.

Tesla are on 467

UK section of TMC forum has multi millions of posts in the UK section. Who knows why posters are scared to post about Tesla, but I doubt it's lack of interest.

[TheRainMaker]

aparna said:

TheRainMaker said:

It still is, over 2.5 million posts, the next marque would be Porsche with around 1.4 million.

Tesla are on 467

UK section of TMC forum has multi millions of posts in the UK section. Who knows why posters are scared to post about Tesla, but I doubt it's lack of interest.

We were talking about PH, I'm sure there are other forums much more popular.

[Heres Johnny]

Oops. Less than 500 delivered and they’re already catching fire

https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-s/brand-new-tesl...

[NDA]

Heres Johnny said:

Oops. Less than 500 delivered and they’re already catching fire

https://driveteslacanada.ca/model-s/brand-new-tesl...

Oh no! BMW's are catching fire.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/mysterious-bmw-fires-con...

That surely marks the end for both companies.

[Heres Johnny]

NDA said:

Oh no! BMW's are catching fire.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/mysterious-bmw-fires-con...

That surely marks the end for both companies.

If 0.3% of all the latest BMW model caught fire then I think they’d be worried, which is kind of what’s happened with the latest Tesla model

I think it shows that Tesla don’t test as thoroughly as other makes and never have, from windscreen wipers in the rain to cold weather performance of the LFP battery and the latest batch of -M3P, and it’s also revealed the battery cells are the old ones

Edited by Heres Johnny on Thursday 1st July 19:33

[skwdenyer]

Burwood said:

oop north said:

skwdenyer said:

Panasonic invested in Tesla to get a return. Selling their shares for a return of around 155% pa over 11 years seems a smart thing to do - what benefit holding further? Hardly seems like a vote of no confidence to me - more like canny timing.

155% over 11 years seems rather poor. I thought Tesla stock had done more than that in the last couple of years

The 155% is wrong. Panasonic purchased 1.4M shares at $21 and change each in 2010. When the stock split 5:1 they held 7Million shares. They sold off some a while back but the Lions Share was sold last quarter for 3.6B. The gain is hard to calculate because they did sell shares previously but if they didn't and sold 7m @$600 that's 4.2B from a $30m (odd) investment or 140X their investment (14,000%) or a compounded annual return of 57% which isn't too shabby

Edited to add-the 155% above is just bad journalism. If you use 55% as a compounded return (1.55)^11 you arrive at 30m to 3.6B. they have wrongly stated 155% compounded growth rate.

Edited by Burwood on Friday 25th June 11:45

Good spot.

55% pa return for 11 continuous years is a phenomenal rate still. It is impossible that it could last, hence selling was sensible IMHO. I don’t see it as a vote of no confidence in the company. $30m was a punt; ~$4bn will actually buy them something worthwhile.

[NDA]

Heres Johnny said:

If 0.3% of all the latest BMW model caught fire then I think they’d be worried, which is kind of what’s happened with the latest Tesla model

I think it shows that Tesla don’t test as thoroughly as other makes and never have, from windscreen wipers in the rain to cold weather performance of the LFP battery and the latest batch of -M3P, and it’s also revealed the battery cells are the old ones

Oh no! Koenigsegg catches fire! 4% of the production!

https://drivetribe.com/p/koenigsegg-agera-r-catche...

Cars catch fire. It can happen.

[Heres Johnny]

NDA said:

Heres Johnny said:

If 0.3% of all the latest BMW model caught fire then I think they’d be worried, which is kind of what’s happened with the latest Tesla model

I think it shows that Tesla don’t test as thoroughly as other makes and never have, from windscreen wipers in the rain to cold weather performance of the LFP battery and the latest batch of -M3P, and it’s also revealed the battery cells are the old ones

Oh no! Koenigsegg catches fire! 4% of the production!

https://drivetribe.com/p/koenigsegg-agera-r-catche...

Cars catch fire. It can happen.

Yep, and when there's only a handful of them on the road its significant news and recalls follow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11156782

I'm not sure whether you're dismissing this as "one of those things and it won't happen to any other Tesla" or "there may an issue and Tesla may need to take remedial action which potentially includes a partial redesign" (note the word "may" in that sentence). If you're the latter, then we agree, if you're the former then you need to take your head out the sand until its proven one way or the other.

[Burwood]

Musk admits FSD is 'harder than he thought.No st Sherlock

https://electrek.co/2021/07/05/elon-musk-admits-se...

The upcoming AI day will be more of the same amazeballs pipe dreams

[Durzel]

Any day now Tesla are going to crash and burn.

Any day, mark my words...

...what do you mean the same things have been said for years?

[aparna]

Musk admits FSD is years away and the share price doesn't move.

This is bad for TSLA why?

[hyphen]

Burwood said:

Musk admits FSD is 'harder than he thought.No st Sherlock
..

<--- That is Musk laughing all the way to the bank

[Burwood]

aparna said:

Musk admits FSD is years away and the share price doesn't move.

This is bad for TSLA why?

lol- because when it blows it will turn shareholders rather pale. Without FSD there is no path to profit-non whatsoever.
I don't believe they'll reach FSD-10 years from now they'll still be promising it. Once Musk realises this he will quit Tesla as he is needed somewhere else. He might even start trolling the company.

[aparna]

Burwood said:

Without FSD there is no path to profit-non whatsoever.

Gross auto margins are nudging 27%. Can you not imagine any path to profit?

[Burwood]

aparna said:

Burwood said:

Without FSD there is no path to profit-non whatsoever.

Gross auto margins are nudging 27%. Can you not imagine any path to profit?

That includes regulatory credits ($500M for the quarter and soon to be zero) and Solar is negative so it's closer to 20. Even then are we to ignore 'other costs'. NET profit GAAP is the real number. Gross margin and EBITDA are useless. It can easily be manipulated, say by offering an incentive to buy with the hit being taken below the GM line (marketing incentive). So no I can not see any path to profit. They will report more losses this quarter in my opinion. And no doubt 500M+ in stock awards.

[aparna]

Burwood said:

That includes regulatory credits ($500M for the quarter and soon to be zero) and Solar is negative so it's closer to 20. Even then are we to ignore 'other costs'. NET profit GAAP is the real number. Gross margin and EBITDA are useless. It can easily be manipulated, say by offering an incentive to buy with the hit being taken below the GM line (marketing incentive). So no I can not see any path to profit. They will report more losses this quarter in my opinion. And no doubt 500M+ in stock awards.

I think you are probably wrong about the manipulation. Looks like a comfortably profitable range of cars to me.