Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?
Discussion
Nothing like setting a challenge.....
"Boris Johnson is poised to announce that the government is bringing forward by a decade a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 from 2040, the BBC understands.
It's understood that new hybrid cars – those with electric motors as well as engines – will get a stay of execution: they will be banned from 2035."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-54937277
"Boris Johnson is poised to announce that the government is bringing forward by a decade a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 from 2040, the BBC understands.
It's understood that new hybrid cars – those with electric motors as well as engines – will get a stay of execution: they will be banned from 2035."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-54937277
Do you not have an opinion, or are you merely an RSS feed?
The manufacturers themselves think that this is more than ambitious, even those with a good footing into EV.
I think it’s still a little short sighted, especially given the prices of EVs and the comparative lack of third party service and repair. We just don’t have the data yet to know how the used market and third party aftersales will evolve, which after all is how the mass market will want (or even NEED) to access vehicles.
There still isn’t an EV that interests me, which is a massive turn off personally, I keep hoping that will change, but manufacturers still seem insistent on daft looking, or overly powerful, or both, vehicles. All I’m looking for is a replacement for my 440i cab, or my old S3 saloon, something normal looking, preferably a convertible, with reasonable (but not daft levels of) power.
The manufacturers themselves think that this is more than ambitious, even those with a good footing into EV.
I think it’s still a little short sighted, especially given the prices of EVs and the comparative lack of third party service and repair. We just don’t have the data yet to know how the used market and third party aftersales will evolve, which after all is how the mass market will want (or even NEED) to access vehicles.
There still isn’t an EV that interests me, which is a massive turn off personally, I keep hoping that will change, but manufacturers still seem insistent on daft looking, or overly powerful, or both, vehicles. All I’m looking for is a replacement for my 440i cab, or my old S3 saloon, something normal looking, preferably a convertible, with reasonable (but not daft levels of) power.
It's fine, in principle, but absolutely frigging pointless if not backed by huge, HUGE, infrastructure investment mostly from government and via local councils. As well as an acceptance by a lot of the population of the need for change, and a willingness TO change, which doesn't exist, sadly.
In the next 10 years, whilst still recovering funds to pay for CV-19?
I admire the intent (and support it on a personal level), but there will be a s
tload of reasons why it is fundamentally impractical, also sadly.
In the next 10 years, whilst still recovering funds to pay for CV-19?
I admire the intent (and support it on a personal level), but there will be a s
tload of reasons why it is fundamentally impractical, also sadly.Roofless Toothless said:
Only 40% of the UK rail network is electrified at the moment.
To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
Luckily the motorways don’t need overhead electricity cables running up and down them otherwise I would agree.To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a st about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.jjwilde said:
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a st about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
Ridiculous stance, and I’m coming from a heavily positive electric vehicle stance. In 5 years there will be plenty ice cars still being sold, I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.I think so, yes.
We will see (post 2030) used ICE cars depreciate less/ have a longer lifespan as they will be competing with new hybrids/ EV, at (presumably) a higher price point. Plus I guess a big spike of ICE sales in 2029...
I would expect a number of brands to withdraw from the UK for new car sales. Will there be hybrid/ electric Dacia for example?
We will see (post 2030) used ICE cars depreciate less/ have a longer lifespan as they will be competing with new hybrids/ EV, at (presumably) a higher price point. Plus I guess a big spike of ICE sales in 2029...
I would expect a number of brands to withdraw from the UK for new car sales. Will there be hybrid/ electric Dacia for example?
I've been expecting (and as an enthusiast, hoping) that the prices for classic cars would fall due to this coming in (even in 2040). Over the summer, if anything, even with online bidding and buying unseen, they seem stubbornly high. Possibly because they can be maintained more easily, although many are bought as an 'investment' it seems. 
As mentioned before, it's the maintenance infrastructure that isn't there yet. Old cars, whilst less advanced, are simple to maintain. EVs not so. I'm of the dying breed who opens his bonnet or jacks a car up and can do home maintenance, something most owners did in the 1980s and before. On an EV, brakes and suspension (and minor electrical glitches....) are probably the only thing that could be maintained or repaired at home or your 'under the arches' place.
Petrol and diesel cars will around as long as there is fuel. In fact, with less demand, it may get cheaper. I bet those who think that should be priced off the road are wealthy enough to not concern themselves with maintenance. Or use pushbikes, so why are they on PH? And as for air quality, some new ICE cars put out less pollution than that created to make them. It shifts pollution elsewhere to electric power stations. Doing 3k miles a year in my petrol car will cause negligible pollution compared to that required to build a new car, even an electric one. But that doesn't win brownie points or votes.
As mentioned before, it's the maintenance infrastructure that isn't there yet. Old cars, whilst less advanced, are simple to maintain. EVs not so. I'm of the dying breed who opens his bonnet or jacks a car up and can do home maintenance, something most owners did in the 1980s and before. On an EV, brakes and suspension (and minor electrical glitches....) are probably the only thing that could be maintained or repaired at home or your 'under the arches' place.
Petrol and diesel cars will around as long as there is fuel. In fact, with less demand, it may get cheaper. I bet those who think that should be priced off the road are wealthy enough to not concern themselves with maintenance. Or use pushbikes, so why are they on PH? And as for air quality, some new ICE cars put out less pollution than that created to make them. It shifts pollution elsewhere to electric power stations. Doing 3k miles a year in my petrol car will cause negligible pollution compared to that required to build a new car, even an electric one. But that doesn't win brownie points or votes.
Edited by sixor8 on Saturday 14th November 09:22
wisbech said:
I think so, yes.
I would expect a number of brands to withdraw from the UK for new car sales. Will there be hybrid/ electric Dacia for example?
Don’t see why not - they’re about to launch an electric model elsewhere. Not here yet but I guess Renault don’t currently want to harm Zoe sales. I would expect a number of brands to withdraw from the UK for new car sales. Will there be hybrid/ electric Dacia for example?
sixor8 said:
I've been expecting (and as an enthusiast, hoping) that the prices for classic cars would fall due to this coming in (even in 2040). Over the summer, if anything, even with online bidding and buying unseen, they seem stubbornly high. Possibly because they can be maintained more easily, although many are bought as an 'investment' it seems.
Unless they’re completely banned from the roads which is extremely unlikely, classic car values are going to boom even more than they already have. Look at the fact they’re exempt from ULEZ etc. Nothing suggesting values will fall.
jjwilde said:
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a st about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.LimJim said:
The ban is on new sales not used sales. The fleet will still be mostly ICE for years after. Currently we are at 0.4% I think?
I'm bullish on EV growth. But we don't need to be electrified in 10 years. More like 20.
This. 9 years to PHEV/EV and 14 years to EV only new sales. There will still be plenty of used ICE cars on the market (and I include PHEV in that) until 2040 and beyond.I'm bullish on EV growth. But we don't need to be electrified in 10 years. More like 20.
After what we've seen so far in 2020 I'd expect a considerable change in the way people work over the next 10-15 years also with far less road warriors and a possible reduction in overall vehicle ownership. Travelling 300 miles in a day regularly to sit in a room and have a meeting for a few hours will become a thing of the past other than in exceptional circumstances.
With regards to vehicle choice this will also become a non issue I'm sure. Most of the big players launching new EV's and by 2030 I'd expect to have EV/PHEV models covering all segments.
Bobtherallyfan said:
jjwilde said:
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a st about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.Edited by SWoll on Saturday 14th November 10:30
Bobtherallyfan said:
Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.
You forgot having everything delivered to the door by several different diesel vans every day, and driving the kids half way across the town because you don't like the exam results of your local school. Oh and having the cleaner, the childminder, the gardener and the handyman all coming to your house in ICE vehicles.The maintenance should be offset by how much more simple the drivetrain is. Electric motors have an order of magnitude less moving parts than ICE, and much less lubrication required. One study in the US comparing a Bolt to a Golf reckoned a drop of 60% in (after sales) revenue to dealers/ OEM due to fewer spare parts & oil required
Bobtherallyfan said:
Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.
Good job you included log burners in this list!I think that people will be ready to widely accept EVs by 2030, or perhaps a little later. At present thy are out of the reach of most folk, but by then many recent models should be down to shed territory and the ability to service them and rebuild degraded battery packs should be within the scope of the average indy.
What is more problematical is the provision of an adequate infrastructure for charging. Energy companies are slowly ramping up their capacity, but governments of any hue seem to be incapable of doing anything but sacking each other
What is more problematical is the provision of an adequate infrastructure for charging. Energy companies are slowly ramping up their capacity, but governments of any hue seem to be incapable of doing anything but sacking each other
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff