The Future Is Electric

[cc3]

rscott said:

cc3 said:

No such thing as a free lunch. Green tax on electric motoring won’t be far away. They will need to replace all that petrol and diesel tax and road tax. Cost of green motoring will eventually be more expensive than petrol. Just a question of when that happens. In the meantime manufactures see an opportunity to price their electric cars at a higher price point particularly as most people somehow seem to feel it’s a good deal to fund their deprecation at 6/8% pa when interest rates are no more than 1%. Nice business model. Pay through the roof for a fast depreciating asset when you can borrow at a third of the cost and invest in an appreciating asset.

Never going to happen - they'll always make sure the higher polluting forms of transport cost more to run

I admire your trust in Governments !! As the use of petrol and diesel cars decline of course Governments will tax green motoring through the roof. They are hooked on the the ease of raising tax through motoring. Incentives to get people to switch will soon disappear and you will be taxed per mile. Nice and easy. Enjoy the honeymoon while you can the advantages won’t last.

[MC Bodge]

The economy should not rely upon people burning fossil fuels to fund it. Taxation will need to change.

In addition: For ICEs, and even for EVs, there should be mileage charges, more for urban areas and with a sliding scale for increasing "journey" length (this would need to be refined to take into account multiple short journeys, short journeys as a part of a longer journey etc.) to discourage short car journeys. Mass use of electric cars won't do anything for congestion or inactivity and the resulting health issues.

More walking, cycling, scooting (electrically assisted or not), combined with some public transport, are what we need.

Edited by MC Bodge on Thursday 15th July 10:54

[rscott]

cc3 said:

rscott said:

cc3 said:

No such thing as a free lunch. Green tax on electric motoring won’t be far away. They will need to replace all that petrol and diesel tax and road tax. Cost of green motoring will eventually be more expensive than petrol. Just a question of when that happens. In the meantime manufactures see an opportunity to price their electric cars at a higher price point particularly as most people somehow seem to feel it’s a good deal to fund their deprecation at 6/8% pa when interest rates are no more than 1%. Nice business model. Pay through the roof for a fast depreciating asset when you can borrow at a third of the cost and invest in an appreciating asset.

Never going to happen - they'll always make sure the higher polluting forms of transport cost more to run

I admire your trust in Governments !! As the use of petrol and diesel cars decline of course Governments will tax green motoring through the roof. They are hooked on the the ease of raising tax through motoring. Incentives to get people to switch will soon disappear and you will be taxed per mile. Nice and easy. Enjoy the honeymoon while you can the advantages won’t last.

I'm sure they will introduce additional taxes on EVs, probably via per mile as you say. But they'll put similar charges on ICE too, to 'encourage' drivers to switch to the less polluting option.

[otolith]

I feel irrationally threatened by the shift to EVs but sadly lack the imagination to invent some spurious reasons why they will never work for me, so this thread is very helpful. I am now considering buying a large boat and a caravan and moving into a cave off the grid in the Outer Hebrides.

[Dave Hedgehog]

rscott said:

I'm sure they will introduce additional taxes on EVs, probably via per mile as you say. But they'll put similar charges on ICE too, to 'encourage' drivers to switch to the less polluting option.

any tax they add to EVs will be applied to ICE as well in additon to fuel and VED taxes

[cc3]

Over time the electric car will carry more and more of the tax raising burden as petrol and diesel cars are scrapped. For example the EU want 30m electric vehicles on the road by 2030. That’s 25-30 m less petrol/ diesel vehicles that contribute a lot of tax to the economy. And they have not even thought about how they deal with the enormous cost of disposing of used lithium batteries. It looks like legislation will put the cost back on the manufacturer and some have started small operations. Electric motoring in 2030 won’t be cheap. By then we will look back at today’s electric offerings as prehistoric in terms of weight and range hence it will soon dawn on people that electric cars of today will have a short life. They will be obsolete by 2030. Solid state technology should be viable by 2025 with half the weight and twice the range. One other big advantage is that solid state batteries don’t carry the fire risk of lithium. Solid state batteries should also last 300,000 miles. So by 2025/6 there will be a sudden shift with consumers dumping lithium battery vehicles. Finally solid state also has implications for the charging infrastructure.

As for hybrids, a very short life span !

Edited by cc3 on Thursday 15th July 14:19

[Dave Hedgehog]

cc3 said:

Over time the electric car will carry more and more of the tax raising burden as petrol and diesel cars are scrapped. For example the EU want 30m electric vehicles on the road by 2030. That’s 25-30 m less petrol/ diesel vehicles that contribute a lot of tax to the economy. And they have not even thought about how they deal with the enormous cost of disposing of used lithium batteries. It looks like legislation will put the cost back on the manufacturer and some have started small operations. Electric motoring in 2030 won’t be cheap. By then we will look back at today’s electric offerings as prehistoric in terms of weight and range hence it will soon dawn on people that electric cars of today will have a short life. They will be obsolete by 2030. Solid state technology should be viable by 2025 with half the weight and twice the range. One other big advantage is that solid state batteries don’t carry the fire risk of lithium. Solid state batteries should also last 300,000 miles. So by 2025/6 there will be a sudden shift with consumers dumping lithium battery vehicles. Finally solid state also has implications for the charging infrastructure.

hmm

current EV batteries should be good for 12-15 years in a car, then 12-15+ years as static storage and then they are 96% (currently) recyclable The battery packs and motors also have a very high value on the second hand market. There is going to be a lot of profit for any company that offers battery pack repair and reconditioning

the Tax burden will increase for EVs but it will always be more exspensive for an ICE car

some solid state researchers are saying its still 10 years away from viable mass production, dual carbon batteries will be the death of solid state and Lion batteries.

If solid state magically appears in 2025 in mass volume and is cheaper than lithium why would anyone throw away the working perfectly batteries in their current car. Especially for an inferior range of 300k miles when Tesla Mk3 batteries are designed for 500k and the Mk4 1Mill miles of usable life.

https://insideevs.com/news/375459/tesla-model-3-50...

the BYD Blade battery is already immune to fire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJNvgbzfClo

[Evanivitch]

Dave Hedgehog said:

the BYD Blade battery is already immune to fire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJNvgbzfClo

The Blade battery is a Lithium Iron Battery too, unsure what they've done differently with it.

LiFePO4 has the added benefit of being cobalt free too, the chemistry is used in Chinese-made, UK-sold model 3, and most electric busses.

[cc3]

Think this gives a useful summary on the future

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.redsharknews.co...

[rscott]

cc3 said:

Think this gives a useful summary on the future

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.redsharknews.co...

So commercial production might start in 2025 if they don't have any problems.