NIO ES8

[anonymous-user]

DJMC said:

If you live in a block of flats, or nowhere near a charging lamppost you can still own an EV and re-fuel as you do now in your ICE car.

I can’t charge at home. I charge at work on a 7kW charger, and it’s more convenient than going to a petrol station.

[kambites]

Battery swapping is certainly possible, but I think the problem is that the market for it (at least in the UK) would be so small that it wouldn't be commercially viable to install the infrastructure required to make it really useful.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small minority of manufacturers collaborating to go down this route with a few swapping stations located on major trunk routes.

[TheDeuce]

F20CN16 said:

DJMC said:

If you live in a block of flats, or nowhere near a charging lamppost you can still own an EV and re-fuel as you do now in your ICE car.

I can’t charge at home. I charge at work on a 7kW charger, and it’s more convenient than going to a petrol station.

This is the thing, the number of people that cannot charge at home is relatively small in terms of supporting a national battery swapping infrastructure, and a good % of those people will find other convenient ways to charge anyway, as you have done.

There are also proposals underway for chargers to be installed along the streets of such areas - and of course, more places of work are adding them too.

There will no doubt still be some people in ten years time that live in an awkward spot with no way to charge an EV at home or anywhere else they go to frequently, but that pool of people is going to be far too small for each to expect to a battery swapping station with practical range of their home and also another along the route of wherever they may choose to drive.

[DJMC]

I'm sure this has been discussed elsewhere, but what is the expectation for people swapping out of ICE cars into EVs over, say, the next 50 years?

I don't see 2030 as a deadline for this. I see perhaps 10% of UK vehicles being EV (and possibly hydrogen) by 2030 with the vast majority of owners still in their ICE cars. Will fuel reduce in price as the demand drops over time after this? No doubt the taxation burden will shift to EVs as income from ICE declines. Swap-out and charging points would be used to collect this tax and so home charging becomes even more attractive. As usual, with any car, the owner can't ever win.

I spoke with a BMW service manager the other day. Off the record he said none of their EVs were any good, just food for the buyers who have to have one. Also he expected increasing delays in manufacturing any cars due to component (wiring looms, ECUs) shortage. If waiting lists get to 3 years maybe 2027 is the real deadline for the last ICE cars.

Thanks for everyone's input.

[TheDeuce]

DJMC said:

I'm sure this has been discussed elsewhere, but what is the expectation for people swapping out of ICE cars into EVs over, say, the next 50 years?

I don't see 2030 as a deadline for this. I see perhaps 10% of UK vehicles being EV (and possibly hydrogen) by 2030 with the vast majority of owners still in their ICE cars. Will fuel reduce in price as the demand drops over time after this? No doubt the taxation burden will shift to EVs as income from ICE declines. Swap-out and charging points would be used to collect this tax and so home charging becomes even more attractive. As usual, with any car, the owner can't ever win.

I spoke with a BMW service manager the other day. Off the record he said none of their EVs were any good, just food for the buyers who have to have one. Also he expected increasing delays in manufacturing any cars due to component (wiring looms, ECUs) shortage. If waiting lists get to 3 years maybe 2027 is the real deadline for the last ICE cars.

Thanks for everyone's input.

You're already way off with that prediction, already EV sales exceed 10%. In 2021 new cars were 11.6% and it's growing year on year in % terms. In march this year that figure had risen to 16.1%. That is a huge rate of growth in sales, by 2030, even at current rate of sales, the % would be far above 10% of total cars. In reality it's likely that the rate of sales will continue to increase exponentially because of the combined incentives/pressures/fear buyers have to switch to EV as the bans grow closer.

Even the most optimistic predictions made for EV uptake have been continuously exceeded. As the bans approach, buyers that can still buy an ICE and could drive it legally forevermore, will start to worry about future values and many will be put off - even if they still don't particularly like the idea of EV for whatever reason.

As for the service centre manager... I think he's talking cobblers. The range of BMW electric vehicles are comparable price wise to their ICE equivalents and cheaper to run, nicer to drive and a good deal quicker. It doesn't surprise me that a service centre manager isn't particularly fond of EV's though... he's going to see his side of the dealership enter a steady decline as EV's simply don't need as much servicing as ICE.

Edited by TheDeuce on Thursday 23 June 10:36