Human-nature?: One of EV’s unanswered questions:

[SWoll]

OldDuffer said:

Mr E said:

And even when they have 50% capacity, there’s useful second life as energy storage for the home.
10kWh of cheap storage in the house could be very useful.

And you've still not understood or avoided the root of the question. When at 50% capacity, are you offering to put a new battery in what will be an unfashionable car? If it were an ICE car it'd still be good. By your answer it doesn't sound like it.

50% capacity would still offer 100-150 miles of range on many EV's available today, which would be more than enough for many potential owners? Our first EV averaged 150 miles at 100% charge and suited us perfectly.

It's also possible to replace damaged/bad cells rather than an entire battery pack.

[OldDuffer]

SHutchinson said:

The folk that currently buy 10yo 7 series BMW's or S8 Audis will be the folk that buy 10yo EV's.

They'll have the same aggro with a 10yo EV that they currently have with their 10yo exec barge that they could never have afforded to buy outright when it was new.

But, some folk like that sort of aggro. They must, otherwise they'd never buy a 10yo exec barge, they'd buy a car they could "afford".
.....

I think that is a thoughtful and sensible answer, it understands the root question. It's true many do exactly that. I think we can safely predict, that is something we will see.

[SWoll]

OldDuffer said:

SHutchinson said:

The folk that currently buy 10yo 7 series BMW's or S8 Audis will be the folk that buy 10yo EV's.

They'll have the same aggro with a 10yo EV that they currently have with their 10yo exec barge that they could never have afforded to buy outright when it was new.

But, some folk like that sort of aggro. They must, otherwise they'd never buy a 10yo exec barge, they'd buy a car they could "afford".
.....

I think that is a thoughtful and sensible answer, it understands the root question. It's true many do exactly that. I think we can safely predict, that is something we will see.

Even assuming 60-70% battery life on a 10 year old car I guarantee you'll have less to worry about on an EV than a 10 year old 150k mile ICE car.

[TheDeuce]

OldDuffer said:

TheDeuce said:

Also many of us actually prefer the driver experience and convenience of electric over ICE. There are tangible positives to EV beyond the image and tax breaks.

Image definitely matters to me if I'm honest.. but also I love a nice car as a driver.

You've reinforced my point, you're driving for now. You'll pass the problem on. But the question needs to be answered, and at some point, you can avoid it.

What is your point!?

Yes... New car owners have the problem of paying thousands a year for the car... Old car owners have the problem of repairing old cars. This is not a new situation and applies to just about anything that changes ownership through its lifespan.

This is a very odd thread you've got started here

[kambites]

The huge majority of cars on the road in the UK are owned outright because the huge majority are not in the hands of their original owner. The same will be true of EVs - they will spend three years of their live on a lease than the next 10 owned outright as they work their way down the market. If the range lessens slightly that'll just become part of how the second-hand market works.

Our addiction to buying (well leasing) brand new cars is pretty catastrophic from an environmental point of view, but that's nothing directly to do with EVs (although some may be using their "green" credentials as an excuse).

Personally I intend to use EVs exactly as I've used ICE cars - buy one at about five years old with the intention of keeping it for about ten years.

Edited by kambites on Thursday 2nd December 10:44

[Mr E]

OldDuffer said:

Mr E said:

And even when they have 50% capacity, there’s useful second life as energy storage for the home.
10kWh of cheap storage in the house could be very useful.

And you've still not understood or avoided the root of the question. When at 50% capacity, are you offering to put a new battery in what will be an unfashionable car? If it were an ICE car it'd still be good. By your answer it doesn't sound like it.

At 50% of capacity I’d expect the car to have a serious number of miles on it.
Consumer decision based on cost of repair and perceived value once repaired. I’d not expect it to be common to swap a battery.

As another contributor has said, 50% capacity could be a perfectly useful car for a considerable number of people.

If the car is then broken for parts. I’d expect the battery to have further value as it’s still useful for applications that don’t have tight capacity/size constraints. The motors will likely be reused.

[OldDuffer]

SWoll said:

Even assuming 60-70% battery life on a 10 year old car I guarantee you'll have less to worry about on an EV than a 10 year old 150k mile ICE car.

This also side-steps the question. 10 years is a number a little too, er... convenient. Not all but the majority of ICE cars hit the ragged-edge of the breaker-pile at 15-17YO. With a will, £500 of old ICE car can usually be made to limp on to 20 years. There's many 2005 cars on our streets. Where the ragged-edge for an EV sits, depends on who you hear, (pick a number) but it's a lot less, and the bill to get it to limp on to 15-17 years will not be a lesser worry.

I call side-step.

[SWoll]

If you look at the mileage requirements of many millions of people 99% of the time an EV with 50 miles of range (10-15kW) would deliver what is required and could be recharged on a 3 pin plug overnight in around 5 hours. 10-15kW is 10-25% of the battery capacity of many current EV's.

[SWoll]

OldDuffer said:

SWoll said:

Even assuming 60-70% battery life on a 10 year old car I guarantee you'll have less to worry about on an EV than a 10 year old 150k mile ICE car.

This also side-steps the question. 10 years is a number a little too, er... convenient. Not all but the majority of ICE cars hit the ragged-edge of the breaker-pile at 15-17YO. With a will, £500 of old ICE car can usually be made to limp on to 20 years. There's many 2005 cars on our streets. Where the ragged-edge for an EV sits, depends on who you hear, (pick a number) but it's a lot less, and the bill to get it to limp on to 15-17 years will not be a lesser worry.

I call side-step.

As mentioned above assuming the battery degradation is the key issue there's no reason to believe an EV would be any less useful at 20 years old than an ICE car?

If the battery of a Model 3 LR had degraded by 75% in those 20 years it would still offer 75 miles of range, how many people use anything like that daily?

Good luck getting a BMW 3 series to 20 years old without some serious investment in the engine/gearbox/exhaust etc.

[kambites]

OldDuffer said:

Where the ragged-edge for an EV sits, depends on who you hear, (pick a number) but it's a lot less, and the bill to get it to limp on to 15-17 years will not be a lesser worry.

Citation for the bit in bold? I would expect an EV to be easier to run to 20 years old than an ICE vehicle, albeit with reduced range.

[5s Alive]

TLDR - I don't think the question is valid.

I heard exactly these same concerns when we bought our now nearly 11 Yr old Prius. "You'll need a new battery when the warranty runs out!" Not current battery chemistry but still has the same range and overall performance as when we bought it early in 2011.

When another poster aired his concerns over the purchase of a secondhand Prius I checked (for the first time ever) the very limited EV only range and it exceeded Toyota's claims.

We've now ordered a new EV (retired and independently wealthy...ish) and I don't expect the experience to be any different this time around or to be having battery issues at 10 or even 15 yrs while recognising the caveat that EV usage and ownership over extended periods will require a different approach and mindset. As would the purchase of any 10yr+ vehicle previously owned or driven by owner(s) who treated it like st.

[ATG]

How is an aging Leaf or Zoe a bloody status symbol?? And why on earth wouldn't someone who _owns_ the car, as is normal when you're doing bangernomics, not choose to either replace or repair a battery and factor the cost of that into the purchase price of the car? In short, OP, WTF are you talking about?

And now that I have read the thread, I see that TheDeuce has already tried to explain this to you with rather better grace than I managed.

Edited by ATG on Thursday 2nd December 11:26

[Evanivitch]

ATG said:

How is an aging Leaf or Zoe a bloody status symbol?? And why on earth wouldn't someone who _owns_ the car, as is normal when you're doing bangernomics, not choose to either replace or repair a battery and factor the cost of that into the purchase price of the car? In short, OP, WTF are you talking about?

They're not. But when you have a salary sacrifice scheme EV, people love to drop the "and I'm saving 40%/45% on tax!"

[DodgyGeezer]

ZesPak said:

Or maybe people just like fast, comfortable and effortless cars. Sort of Mercedes/Rolls Royce/Bentley's whole shtick for the past century.

Never having to stop for fuel is just an added bonus.

Come on - that's a bit of double speak there. As things stand if I were to buy (for example) an iPace my winter range would be (from what i understand) about 200 miles meaning I couldn't visit Winchester without having to refuel/recharge (summer would probably/possibly not be an issue). I had a quick look on my last visit and didn't see any free charge points

Now I agree that the tech will keep on improving
- I read somewhere that Ford claim to be 'nearly there' on making fast charging possible which would be the holy grail
- there is talk of solid-state batteries (witchcraft to me in all honesty) which will overcome range anxiety as well as offering fast charging

Once these are in place I'll be a lot more enthusiastic (make it sound like a nascar in tunnels and I'll be fully signed up )

[OldDuffer]

kambites said:

Citation for the bit in bold? I would expect an EV to be easier to run to 20 years old than an ICE vehicle, albeit with reduced range.

If fact, EVs are viable at 20 years on the ex-factory battery, your case is won - this thread has no reason to exist.

I see many quote this thread as 'odd'. That may be true, instead of perpetuating the standard tropes, it forces a car-buying question many pay not to answer. Some of you clearly don't understand the question at root, or its perspective as cars drop down the food-chain. If you're able to pass the problem on, I don't suppose you'll ever need to.

I suppose the question could be rephrased, how will Bangernomics work with a 15YO EV?

Edited by OldDuffer on Thursday 2nd December 11:39

[kambites]

OldDuffer said:

If fact, EVs are viable at 20 years on the ex-factory battery, your case is won - this thread has no reason to exist.

Indeed, and I haven't really seen any evidence either way in the automotive market (EVs are just too new) but I work with Lithium Ion batteries and I see no reason to believe they wont last that well if looked after properly. Especially as manufacturers transition to LiFePo batteries which fundamentally have longer life-spans.

From what I've seen of our UPSs, I suspect current generation cars will tend to be sitting somewhere around the 50-70% of original range mark at 20 years old depending on the car and how it's been used. With LiFePo batteries the losses should fall significantly, probably putting that figure at more like 70-80%. The cars may suffer individual cell failures as well as general degradation, but that should be viewed the same as fixing a failed component on an ICE.


Another thing which needs to be analysed is the likely pricing ov Lithium Ion cells in 20 years time. Over the last 20 years prices have done this:



It's difficult to look at that chart and not think they're going to be significantly lower in 20 years time if someone does need a replacement battery pack.

Edited by kambites on Thursday 2nd December 11:46

[ZesPak]

DodgyGeezer said:

Come on - that's a bit of double speak there. As things stand if I were to buy (for example) an iPace my winter range would be (from what i understand) about 200 miles meaning I couldn't visit Winchester without having to refuel/recharge (summer would probably/possibly not be an issue). I had a quick look on my last visit and didn't see any free charge points

Now I agree that the tech will keep on improving
- I read somewhere that Ford claim to be 'nearly there' on making fast charging possible which would be the holy grail
- there is talk of solid-state batteries (witchcraft to me in all honesty) which will overcome range anxiety as well as offering fast charging

Once these are in place I'll be a lot more enthusiastic (make it sound like a nascar in tunnels and I'll be fully signed up )

Nope, you're clearly speaking from the point of someone who doesn't own or even want to own an EV.

Simply put: if you want to do a 200 mile trip on a regular basis, buy an EV that can easily do it on a regular basis.
There are a number of them that can and most of them are cheaper than an I Pace.

If you don't do it on a regular basis and you prefer to get the I Pace, getting that distance will literally ad 5-10 min to your trip in the winter.
But all the other days of the year you never have to refuel, so you're still up in time. I understand your charge point situation, but that one is being quickly solved and it's getting harder and harder to find places without proper charging in the neighborhood.

Do you have another arbitrary scenario that might have happened to you once about a decade ago?

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 2nd December 11:44

[Mr E]

Look at it another way.

Buying a EV at 15 years old and 100k miles, I can plug into it and the battery will tell me what state it’s in. I can predict performance/lifespan pretty effectively.

Buying a 15 year old ICE, it can look and sound fine, and fail catastrophically the following week.

[OldDuffer]

kambites said:

Indeed, and I haven't really seen any evidence either way in the automotive market (EVs are just too new) but I work with Lithium Ion batteries and I see no reason to believe they wont last that well if looked after properly.

I've never managed to get decent Yuasa 12V batteries from Halfrods last much over 5 years, then again, that might be me.

[TheDeuce]

Evanivitch said:

ATG said:

How is an aging Leaf or Zoe a bloody status symbol?? And why on earth wouldn't someone who _owns_ the car, as is normal when you're doing bangernomics, not choose to either replace or repair a battery and factor the cost of that into the purchase price of the car? In short, OP, WTF are you talking about?

They're not. But when you have a salary sacrifice scheme EV, people love to drop the "and I'm saving 40%/45% on tax!"

That's true, and I am saving tax and driving a very nice car for about the real world costs of a cheap Golf if it were not for the tax benefits.. But we all pay tax through our lives and sometimes changes in taxation benefit us, sometimes we suffer them instead.

In the real world of EV's for the masses... you can buy a small run around brand new these days for sub £20k and it'll cost close to £0 to run on the right tariff for the average town driver.

For £30k you can buy an entirely practical family car and still spend less than ICE overall due to running costs.

EV's are not necessarily elitist anymore. The EV's you get for £20-30k are not for showing off in and it's not even about being 'green' for most EV drivers - at least those I speak to on and off here. It's the super convenient, hassle free and very refined motoring with the fun element of EV instant torque that keeps most EV owners happy.