Slump in EV sales on it's way?

[Merry]

greggy50 said:

Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?

https://octopus.energy/go/

As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...

EDF won't quote new customers.

[w8pmc]

greggy50 said:

Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?

https://octopus.energy/go/

As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...

These rates are not as far as i know available to new Customers & haven't been for some time.

Other issue is they ONLY work for what they describe as a normal family. Husband & Wife work away from home 8-10hrs a day with kids at school, so for those who work from home & thus consume a high amount of electricity during daylight hours, the day rate would be crippling just to gain an advantage for 4-5hrs overnight.

No way the likes of Octopus will be able to maintain those night rates once the new Price cap comes into play. So if you're a 'normal' family & currently on these for the next few months, you're quids in, but once it ends then the likes of Octopus will need to recover their hefty losses.

[w8pmc]

ajap1979 said:

Can we hear this comparison? Sounds more relevant than a Polo Match...

Not really, the M3LR is a far closer match on paper to the Polo than my M5C.

But when S/C rates increase later in the year & it's costing closer to £50 for a full charge, the delta between Tesla & M5C will be considerably narrower as would then be about £90-100 for the Tesla to get the same range as the M5 which if petrol prices keep gradually dropping would cost about £95 to fill & would (if driven sensibly) give a range of close to 400 miles (defo if driven in the same way a Tesla has to be driven to get a decent range).

[delta0]

Seems like the opposite is happening. Most people charge at home and get special EV rates for this. Plus there’s loads of free charging around like Tesla destination chargers. You only really need a super charger when doing some epic distances. Even then they have peak and off peak prices (half of peak).

Edited by delta0 on Friday 12th August 12:34

[greggy50]

w8pmc said:

greggy50 said:

Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?

https://octopus.energy/go/

As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...

These rates are not as far as i know available to new Customers & haven't been for some time.

Other issue is they ONLY work for what they describe as a normal family. Husband & Wife work away from home 8-10hrs a day with kids at school, so for those who work from home & thus consume a high amount of electricity during daylight hours, the day rate would be crippling just to gain an advantage for 4-5hrs overnight.

No way the likes of Octopus will be able to maintain those night rates once the new Price cap comes into play. So if you're a 'normal' family & currently on these for the next few months, you're quids in, but once it ends then the likes of Octopus will need to recover their hefty losses.

We both work from home 3-4 days a week and it still works out far better but I do 20k miles a year in my EV.

Even if the night rate goes up to 15-20p it would still be worth it overall.

1850SQF 4 Bed House and my EV costs us about £210 a month, I believe the day rate for electric currently is about 35p.

[WelshRich]

w8pmc said:

greggy50 said:

Octopus Go is still available to my knowledge?

https://octopus.energy/go/

As does EDF which is 4.5p so even cheaper it appears.

https://www.edfenergy.com/sites/default/files/goel...

These rates are not as far as i know available to new Customers & haven't been for some time.

Other issue is they ONLY work for what they describe as a normal family. Husband & Wife work away from home 8-10hrs a day with kids at school, so for those who work from home & thus consume a high amount of electricity during daylight hours, the day rate would be crippling just to gain an advantage for 4-5hrs overnight.

No way the likes of Octopus will be able to maintain those night rates once the new Price cap comes into play. So if you're a 'normal' family & currently on these for the next few months, you're quids in, but once it ends then the likes of Octopus will need to recover their hefty losses.

We’ve just switched to Octopus and are going onto the EV tariff as a new customer. We had to call them rather than switch online but it was pretty painless…

We don’t fit the “normal” definition above - I work from home full time and my wife does 2-3 days per week. Heating is with oil and the main culprits for high electricity use (cooker, dryer, etc) aren’t used any more just because we WFH. Only additional usage I can see is a few LED bulbs on for slightly longer in the winter, running a couple of laptops and boiling the kettle occasionally.

Charging an EV for an expected 15k miles each year will basically double our electricity consumption - Most of this will be home charging so the maths stacks up for us to go onto an EV tariff - It falls down for those who only do a few thousand miles each year…

[greggy50]

The above was my understanding/experience as well to be honest.

The major cost of WFH will be heating in the winter rather than electric

[ajap1979]

w8pmc said:

ajap1979 said:

Can we hear this comparison? Sounds more relevant than a Polo Match...

Not really, the M3LR is a far closer match on paper to the Polo than my M5C.

Hmm, feels like there is some pretty iffy logic in that statement

[greggy50]

ajap1979 said:

w8pmc said:

ajap1979 said:

Can we hear this comparison? Sounds more relevant than a Polo Match...

Not really, the M3LR is a far closer match on paper to the Polo than my M5C.

Hmm, feels like there is some pretty iffy logic in that statement

The Polo Match must have had a 2.0 4WD TFSI conversion and been stretched in length.

[w8pmc]

WelshRich said:

We’ve just switched to Octopus and are going onto the EV tariff as a new customer. We had to call them rather than switch online but it was pretty painless…

We don’t fit the “normal” definition above - I work from home full time and my wife does 2-3 days per week. Heating is with oil and the main culprits for high electricity use (cooker, dryer, etc) aren’t used any more just because we WFH. Only additional usage I can see is a few LED bulbs on for slightly longer in the winter, running a couple of laptops and boiling the kettle occasionally.

Charging an EV for an expected 15k miles each year will basically double our electricity consumption - Most of this will be home charging so the maths stacks up for us to go onto an EV tariff - It falls down for those who only do a few thousand miles each year…

Fair points, although our general electricity consumption is very high (insane during the Winter).

The Wife's Tesla will at most be doing about 8k miles per annum as is only used for local duties & having done the math's, our overall costs switching to an EV specific tariff would almost double due to the penalizing day rate.

Defo some value for many people & am jealous we didn't switch to a fixed EV Tariff when we started considering an EV.

Had the luxury of stupid cheap Electricity & Gas for the last few years via several very low fixed rates, so i guess just paying the price now

[CheesecakeRunner]

My last ICE was a 2018 v6 petrol Jaguar XF. Over the three years I had it, it cost 27pence per mile to fuel. Not running costs, fuel. I know this because I have to track everything for work expenses.

My current Model 3 Performance has more interior space than the Jag, more toys, and wipes the floor with it in performance. Both cars cost around £60,000 new.

At 69p per kWh (Ionity) this would cost £52 roughly for a full charge 0-100. From that, driving the same as the Jag, I’d get 280 miles. So just under 19 pence per mile.

So, no, EVs aren’t approaching price parity with equivalent ICE even with electricity price rises.

[w8pmc]

CheesecakeRunner said:

My last ICE was a 2018 v6 petrol Jaguar XF. Over the three years I had it, it cost 27pence per mile to fuel. Not running costs, fuel. I know this because I have to track everything for work expenses.

My current Model 3 Performance has more interior space than the Jag, more toys, and wipes the floor with it in performance. Both cars cost around £60,000 new.

At 69p per kWh (Ionity) this would cost £52 roughly for a full charge 0-100. From that, driving the same as the Jag, I’d get 280 miles. So just under 19 pence per mile.

So, no, EVs aren’t approaching price parity with equivalent ICE even with electricity price rises.

You're doing very well on your M3P range then as driving our M3LR like a normal car, we're lucky to get 220-250 range. Only thing that's helping currently are all the roadworks on motorways, so when we have to venture out we're pegged back to 50mph for most of the time. But once you start cruising at 80mph the range drops through the floor (hence why you see so many EV's tucked behind HGV's in the slow lane).

If ever using the sometimes fun performance of the Tesla's, again the cost per mile shoots up.

I do like ours for what it is, but the delta purely on fuel/electicity costs is narrowing at an alarming rate & gonna get a whole lot worse over the next 6-9mths.

[DMZ]

In my opinion it's largely pointless to take an EV on a longer trip where you have to rely on rapid charging a lot. You get hassle and the savings are marginal. When charging at home, an EV is unbeatable of course.

[greggy50]

w8pmc said:

CheesecakeRunner said:

My last ICE was a 2018 v6 petrol Jaguar XF. Over the three years I had it, it cost 27pence per mile to fuel. Not running costs, fuel. I know this because I have to track everything for work expenses.

My current Model 3 Performance has more interior space than the Jag, more toys, and wipes the floor with it in performance. Both cars cost around £60,000 new.

At 69p per kWh (Ionity) this would cost £52 roughly for a full charge 0-100. From that, driving the same as the Jag, I’d get 280 miles. So just under 19 pence per mile.

So, no, EVs aren’t approaching price parity with equivalent ICE even with electricity price rises.

You're doing very well on your M3P range then as driving our M3LR like a normal car, we're lucky to get 220-250 range. Only thing that's helping currently are all the roadworks on motorways, so when we have to venture out we're pegged back to 50mph for most of the time. But once you start cruising at 80mph the range drops through the floor (hence why you see so many EV's tucked behind HGV's in the slow lane).

If ever using the sometimes fun performance of the Tesla's, again the cost per mile shoots up.

I do like ours for what it is, but the delta purely on fuel/electicity costs is narrowing at an alarming rate & gonna get a whole lot worse over the next 6-9mths.

To get 220 miles of a M3 LR you must be driving it pretty hard.

My P2 appears to be the following:

75mph - 31.4kwh/per 100 miles (circa. 240 miles)
90mph - 44kwh per 100 miles (circa. 175miles)

I would add 50 miles onto this for a Tesla so probably 230 miles+ if you sat at 90mph as its more efficient and has a slightly bigger battery (I have seen it will do 310 miles sat at 70mph). Once you add in the slower bits and the start and finish you should be getting 250 even driving well above the speed limit.

I will admit at 100mph I would only get about 140 miles of range in mine and at 120mph it becomes more like 100 miles...

ICE cars are not much different to be honest. On my old 330d the difference in economy between 70mph and 90mph was quite a lot...

Edited by greggy50 on Friday 12th August 14:53

[S600BSB]

Can't see there being any slump in demand. Biggest concern I have is availability of my next car when my current lease - ipace - comes to an end. I am sure there are plenty of folk like me who, having experienced the benefits of an EV, have no wish to go back to an ICE for their daily.

[greggy50]

DMZ said:

In my opinion it's largely pointless to take an EV on a longer trip where you have to rely on rapid charging a lot. You get hassle and the savings are marginal. When charging at home, an EV is unbeatable of course.

I would agree, 250 miles of range gets you a long way though so you get your first tank of fuel so to speak very cheap.

If you did a long drive i.e. 4 hour each way London to Manchester you would need to top up maybe 50% of your battery at the higher rate. It would still average out a lot less than an ICE car.

[Shrimpvende]

Does anyone have the info for private sales vs to companies for EV's?

I'd imagine most are company cars due to the huge tax breaks currently on offer making them a bit of a no-brainer. Electricity for charging a car does not currently attract BiK, and there are now multiple cards on the market that are similar to conventional fuel cards but for the public charging network. In this scenario, it doesn't really matter how much the electricity costs as overall it's much cheaper to run an EV as a company car than taking car allowance and running an equivalent ICE car.

Privately, it's a bit different. We currently have one as my partner used to commute 75 miles per day and had unlimited free electricity to charge at work, making Hyundai Kona EV a sensible choice as we never paid for any fuel for it. Now, however, she's changed jobs and I'm using it regularly. If I plug it in at the public chargers near work, it's 71p per KWH. That makes it very expensive to run, and no cheaper than a small petrol hatchback. Also - the small petrol Kona is £18k brand new, our EV was £38k. So it's a bit of a non starter.

I think we're going to get rid and I'll have an EV as a company car to replace it - it's daft of me not to. As soon as the BiK isn't favourable, I'll revert. The biggest slump in EV sales will be when BiK jumps back up to a more normal rate, just like it did for PHEV's.

[Hobo]

greggy50 said:

I would agree, 250 miles of range gets you a long way though so you get your first tank of fuel so to speak very cheap.

If you did a long drive i.e. 4 hour each way London to Manchester you would need to top up maybe 50% of your battery at the higher rate. It would still average out a lot less than an ICE car.

I was doing Leeds to London once a week during lockdown and the costs of charging (Ionity @ 150kw) were similar to what it would cost in fuel. I could have obviously done it much cheaper using slower chargers, but would have meant 1 hour+ stops are services instead of 20 minute stops.

Thankfully, all costs are paid by client, so it didn't matter

I'm setting off to the Dordogne later today in my Etron, which will be a 2000 round trip. Done it before and ran out of charge, so hopefully will go better this time.

[w8pmc]

greggy50 said:

To get 220 miles of a M3 LR you must be driving it pretty hard.

My P2 appears to be the following:

75mph - 31.4kwh/per 100 miles (circa. 240 miles)
90mph - 44kwh per 100 miles (circa. 175miles)

I would add 50 miles onto this for a Tesla so probably 230 miles+ if you sat at 90mph as its more efficient and has a slightly bigger battery (I have seen it will do 310 miles sat at 70mph). Once you add in the slower bits and the start and finish you should be getting 250 even driving well above the speed limit.

I will admit at 100mph I would only get about 140 miles of range in mine and at 120mph it becomes more like 100 miles...

ICE cars are not much different to be honest. On my old 330d the difference in economy between 70mph and 90mph was quite a lot...

Edited by greggy50 on Friday 12th August 14:53

I haven't gone into finite analysis of our M3LR's usage costs, but 220 is a fair guess on range we're getting, although we only charge to 95% (unless doing a single long journey) & don't allow to go below 10% so i guess could still be 30-40miles in the battery if went full to empty.

Not seen anywhere that any Model 3 Tesla has exceeded 300 miles in normal conditions, perhaps achievable in a test scenario.

[delta0]

w8pmc said:

greggy50 said:

To get 220 miles of a M3 LR you must be driving it pretty hard.

My P2 appears to be the following:

75mph - 31.4kwh/per 100 miles (circa. 240 miles)
90mph - 44kwh per 100 miles (circa. 175miles)

I would add 50 miles onto this for a Tesla so probably 230 miles+ if you sat at 90mph as its more efficient and has a slightly bigger battery (I have seen it will do 310 miles sat at 70mph). Once you add in the slower bits and the start and finish you should be getting 250 even driving well above the speed limit.

I will admit at 100mph I would only get about 140 miles of range in mine and at 120mph it becomes more like 100 miles...

ICE cars are not much different to be honest. On my old 330d the difference in economy between 70mph and 90mph was quite a lot...

Edited by greggy50 on Friday 12th August 14:53

I haven't gone into finite analysis of our M3LR's usage costs, but 220 is a fair guess on range we're getting, although we only charge to 95% (unless doing a single long journey) & don't allow to go below 10% so i guess could still be 30-40miles in the battery if went full to empty.

Not seen anywhere that any Model 3 Tesla has exceeded 300 miles in normal conditions, perhaps achievable in a test scenario.

300 is very easy to do in my M3P. Perhaps some of the older M3s will struggle.