Life and Death of Li Ion batteries

[SWoll]

GT9 said:

Have you looked at any of the other data presented in this thread and what SHAPE the degradation curves are following?

Of course he has, his posting in the thread is driven by intellectual curiosity and a thirst for intelligent debate remember?

[anonymous-user]

SWoll said:

Of course he has, his posting in the thread is driven by intellectual curiosity and a thirst for intelligent debate remember?

And what are you here to contribute?

[djc206]

wormus said:

What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by wormus on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

Most ICE lifetime or extended warranties expire at 100,000 miles even though many of us have owned a car that has surpassed that milestone, some by a considerable margin.

I would suggest the logic is more along the lines of average mileage x average age at scrappage which in the U.K. is 7400 x 13-14 = ~100,000. It’s a useful milestone.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Yes, it’s an ‘S’, I get it. The point being battery performance drops significantly in the first 20k miles, stabilises (notwithstanding chemical and age degradation of say 2-3% each year), then it drops significantly between 80% capacity - 70%, by which time it needs replacing.


What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by wormus on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

It suggests no such thing.

You are merely speculating.

[Muzzer79]

wormus said:

What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by wormus on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

Again, your warranty logic is bizarre.

Using said logic, manufacturers suggest that an ICE car will begin to drop off in performance or fail after 60k miles or 3 years.

Everyone is aware of that and accepts it so if it's accepted for an ICE car, why is it an issue for an EV?

[D4rez]

wormus said:

Yes, it’s an ‘S’, I get it. The point being battery performance drops significantly in the first 20k miles, stabilises (notwithstanding chemical and age degradation of say 2-3% each year), then it drops significantly between 80% capacity - 70%, by which time it needs replacing.


What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by wormus on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

Not really important though.

[anonymous-user]

Muzzer79 said:

Again, your warranty logic is bizarre.

Using said logic, manufacturers suggest that an ICE car will begin to drop off in performance or fail after 60k miles or 3 years.

Everyone is aware of that and accepts it so if it's accepted for an ICE car, why is it an issue for an EV?

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

[D4rez]

wormus said:

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

So an ICE car fails after 3 years?

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

Yes, it’s an ‘S’, I get it. The point being battery performance drops significantly in the first 20k miles, stabilises (notwithstanding chemical and age degradation of say 2-3% each year), then it drops significantly between 80% capacity - 70%, by which time it needs replacing.


What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

It suggests no such thing.

You are merely speculating.

Yes it does, do some research and come tell me where I’m incorrect.

[anonymous-user]

D4rez said:

wormus said:

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

So an ICE car fails after 3 years?

We’re not discussing ICEs

[anonymous-user]

D4rez said:

wormus said:

Yes, it’s an ‘S’, I get it. The point being battery performance drops significantly in the first 20k miles, stabilises (notwithstanding chemical and age degradation of say 2-3% each year), then it drops significantly between 80% capacity - 70%, by which time it needs replacing.


What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

Not really important though.

Yes it is, it tells us how much life a second hand EV is likely to have which will affect many people considering making the switch.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

Yes, it’s an ‘S’, I get it. The point being battery performance drops significantly in the first 20k miles, stabilises (notwithstanding chemical and age degradation of say 2-3% each year), then it drops significantly between 80% capacity - 70%, by which time it needs replacing.


What’s not clear is at what point that final drop in performance happens. The fact most manufacturers provide a warranty until 100k suggests it’s not too long after that.

Edited by wormus on Wednesday 1st March 08:41

It suggests no such thing.

You are merely speculating.

Yes it does, do some research and come tell me where I’m incorrect.

It is customary practice, just as in research papers, that the person putting forward a theory backs it up with evidence and not for the reviewers to to fill in the gaps. There would be no logic to this approach.

[SpeckledJim]

wormus said:

Muzzer79 said:

Again, your warranty logic is bizarre.

Using said logic, manufacturers suggest that an ICE car will begin to drop off in performance or fail after 60k miles or 3 years.

Everyone is aware of that and accepts it so if it's accepted for an ICE car, why is it an issue for an EV?

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

ICE have proven themselves to be so flakey that the manufacturers put shorter warranties on them than some things in my fridge.

This is nuts. If ICE have proven themselves, and EVs are rubbish, then why does an EV come with a warranty over twice as long?

If EVs are rubbish, then the question is 'rubbish compared to what?' To which the only reasonable answer can be 'compared to ICE'. Yet the evidence you're pointing to says the opposite to what you're trying to demonstrate.

[ruggedscotty]

How many on here actually have battery knowledge and experiance ?

Im curious... as well some of the facts being 'quoted' are not very reliable. almost like a hatred and disdain for EV's. guess as this is pistonheads its allowed.

In seriousness though...

A battery if operated within its design envelop will last a long time indeed.

https://blog.evbox.com/uk-en/ev-battery-longevity#...

Ive looked after a few battery systems, and the modern ones are getting it down to a T so to speak. And manufacturing processes are getting a lot better.

i think were even right now approaching the point that for at least 85% of the population an electric car will suffice and meet their expectations. The constant barrage and negativity with EV's mostly originates from those that have losses through the adoption of EV's

Lack of servicing for one, and a general reliability that exceeds the ICE. what is there not to like about this new dawn.... ?

Oh and the claptrap about having to replace your batteries after 10 years... really ?

what will the cost of batteries be in 10 years ? no one here can say what they will cost, as the factories start to come on line those costs will drop. We will see more businesses out there that can repair battery packs. so no I really dont see it being an issue, unless of course you want it to be an issue.

Looking at changing my car for an electric or at least a hybrid. the days of the pure ICE are doomed. Nobody is going to want to drive an ICE as going forward were going to see loads of towns and cities banning the ICE. Its not going to be that the car manufacturers will stop selling them, its going to be the average joe isnt going to want to own a pure ice car. road tax emissions tax road tolls and clean air areas... thats whats going to be the decider.

[OutInTheShed]

wormus said:

GT9 said:

I was referring specifically to the shape of the degradation curve.

Sorry, it’s a Tesla sales brochure and it’s absurd to suggest it’s still got over 90% capacity after 100k miles. 80% might be realistic I’d guess but then these batteries are considered “dead” by 70% so the question is, if you buy a 100k, 10 year old Tesla, with unknown charging/usage history, how much life does it still have? These are the useful answers for skeptics like me to ever consider buying one, not the naive “EVs are amazing!!!!!” bilge which seems to permeate these threads.

That question is not just for the sceptics, septics or skeptics, it's also pretty damned important to the enthusiast at the budget end of the market.

It will also become important for the 2nd user in the middle of the market, because his ownerships costs having an EV from say 4 to 8 years, will be hugely influenced by what the 3rd user is prepared to pay.

[D4rez]

wormus said:

Yes it is, it tells us how much life a second hand EV is likely to have which will affect many people considering making the switch.

Average age of a car scrapped is 14 years, average UK mileage is 7400 miles. Scrappage mileage = 104k miles. Tesla battery warranty = 100k miles. What's the issue?

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...

[Muzzer79]

wormus said:

Muzzer79 said:

Again, your warranty logic is bizarre.

Using said logic, manufacturers suggest that an ICE car will begin to drop off in performance or fail after 60k miles or 3 years.

Everyone is aware of that and accepts it so if it's accepted for an ICE car, why is it an issue for an EV?

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

wormus said:

D4rez said:

So an ICE car fails after 3 years?

We’re not discussing ICEs

We are discussing warranties as an indicator of expected life span

You can't use a warranty as an expected life span of an EV and then not use it as a measure for an ICE car. That's just flawed logic.

[SpeckledJim]

ruggedscotty said:

How many on here actually have battery knowledge and experiance ?

Im curious... as well some of the facts being 'quoted' are not very reliable. almost like a hatred and disdain for EV's. guess as this is pistonheads its allowed.

In seriousness though...

A battery if operated within its design envelop will last a long time indeed.

https://blog.evbox.com/uk-en/ev-battery-longevity#...

Ive looked after a few battery systems, and the modern ones are getting it down to a T so to speak. And manufacturing processes are getting a lot better.

i think were even right now approaching the point that for at least 85% of the population an electric car will suffice and meet their expectations. The constant barrage and negativity with EV's mostly originates from those that have losses through the adoption of EV's

Lack of servicing for one, and a general reliability that exceeds the ICE. what is there not to like about this new dawn.... ?

Oh and the claptrap about having to replace your batteries after 10 years... really ?

what will the cost of batteries be in 10 years ? no one here can say what they will cost, as the factories start to come on line those costs will drop. We will see more businesses out there that can repair battery packs. so no I really dont see it being an issue, unless of course you want it to be an issue.

Looking at changing my car for an electric or at least a hybrid. the days of the pure ICE are doomed. Nobody is going to want to drive an ICE as going forward were going to see loads of towns and cities banning the ICE. Its not going to be that the car manufacturers will stop selling them, its going to be the average joe isnt going to want to own a pure ice car. road tax emissions tax road tolls and clean air areas... thats whats going to be the decider.

If EV batteries were as bad as the guessers say, then Autotrader and eBay and Copart would have literally hundreds of Leafs, Zoes and Model S with failed batteries that the owners can't afford to replace.

You know, like 10 year-old S-Classes and 7 Series with engines and gearboxes that have st themselves. Nice cars, that don't currently work.

Where are all these 10 year-old bricked EVs that need £10,000 to get back on the road?

[Nomme de Plum]

SpeckledJim said:

wormus said:

Muzzer79 said:

Again, your warranty logic is bizarre.

Using said logic, manufacturers suggest that an ICE car will begin to drop off in performance or fail after 60k miles or 3 years.

Everyone is aware of that and accepts it so if it's accepted for an ICE car, why is it an issue for an EV?

Because they use entirely different technologies and we are discussing batteries. ICE have proven themselves, EV batteries have not. I guess you don’t agree that a warranty is an indicator of expected life span?

ICE have proven themselves to be so flakey that the manufacturers put shorter warranties on them than some things in my fridge.

This is nuts. If ICE have proven themselves, and EVs are rubbish, then why does an EV come with a warranty over twice as long?

If EVs are rubbish, then the question is 'rubbish compared to what?' To which the only reasonable answer can be 'compared to ICE'. Yet the evidence you're pointing to says the opposite to what you're trying to demonstrate.

I do not understand Wormus' position. He seems fixated in trying to prove that EV batteries will fail in a relatively short time frame but can provide zero evidence to substantiate his position so resorts to bizarre extrapolations.

Admittedly we are still early days for comprehensive studies of usage and battery life but it seems that if theses batteries are cared for correctly and not recharged daily that they will be good for 15+ years which is more than the average car life expectancy.

Additionally Battery technology and manufacturing is constantly improving and will continue to so do until life expectancy will be a complete non issue.

[anonymous-user]

OutInTheShed said:

wormus said:

GT9 said:

I was referring specifically to the shape of the degradation curve.

Sorry, it’s a Tesla sales brochure and it’s absurd to suggest it’s still got over 90% capacity after 100k miles. 80% might be realistic I’d guess but then these batteries are considered “dead” by 70% so the question is, if you buy a 100k, 10 year old Tesla, with unknown charging/usage history, how much life does it still have? These are the useful answers for skeptics like me to ever consider buying one, not the naive “EVs are amazing!!!!!” bilge which seems to permeate these threads.

That question is not just for the sceptics, septics or skeptics, it's also pretty damned important to the enthusiast at the budget end of the market.

It will also become important for the 2nd user in the middle of the market, because his ownerships costs having an EV from say 4 to 8 years, will be hugely influenced by what the 3rd user is prepared to pay.

Exactly, they’re not much good if they only have a 10 year, 100k lifespan, with an entry price tag of 30k, and nobody so far has been able to present evidence to suggest otherwise. Will a 20 year old 200k EV be the expected lifespan?