Life and Death of Li Ion batteries

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

GT9 said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I found this quite interesting.

1 million miles in a Tesla S


https://thedriven.io/2022/06/15/tesla-model-s-owne...

Having gone through 3 batteries, one of the replacements being second hand as well.
If he was on his fourth battery and let's say that was also ready to expire, that's 250,000 miles per battery.
I'm sure one could find out more about the current situation fo this car, article was mid last year ago.

Indeed, I'd be more worried by the 8 motors needed, that's 125k miles per motor. So it seems EVs can do intergalactic mileages if you are prepared to replace batteries and motors. Bit like Trigger's broom.

For accuracy from the article. Which differs from your statement

"While the first motor lasted 778,000km, he says the last four lasted only 200,000km each."

From an engineering standpoint i would be more interested in understanding the relative poor longevity of subsequent motors.

Do you now accept your post re circa 100K miles battery longevity was just plain wrong?

Edited by Nomme de Plum on Friday 3rd March 11:49

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

GT9 said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I found this quite interesting.

1 million miles in a Tesla S


https://thedriven.io/2022/06/15/tesla-model-s-owne...

Having gone through 3 batteries, one of the replacements being second hand as well.
If he was on his fourth battery and let's say that was also ready to expire, that's 250,000 miles per battery.
I'm sure one could find out more about the current situation fo this car, article was mid last year ago.

Indeed, I'd be more worried by the 8 motors needed, that's 125k miles per motor. So it seems EVs can do intergalactic mileages if you are prepared to replace batteries and motors. Bit like Trigger's broom.

For accuracy from the article. Which differs from your statement

"While the first motor lasted 778,000km, he says the last four lasted only 200,000km each."

From an engineering standpoint i would be more interested in understanding the relative poor longevity of subsequent motors.

Do you now accept your post re circa 100K miles battery longevity was just plain wrong?

Edited by Nomme de Plum on Friday 3rd March 11:49

I thought we agreed at least 100k miles was a working assumption, as there was no data to indicate how long they would last beyond that, in the real world. Some of the people have suggested up to 500k miles is possible, without any evidence, just bias. So, not I'm not wrong, any more than they are right.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

I thought we agreed at least 100k miles was a working assumption, as there was no data to indicate how long they would last beyond that, in the real world. Some of the people have suggested up to 500k miles is possible, without any evidence, just bias. So, not I'm not wrong, any more than they are right.

No we did not agree and nearly every other poster has tried to point this out to you.

If you are not prepared to accept the linked article as at least some reasonable evidence there there are plenty of other articles which indicate your assumption is flawed.

You are correct there are not a list of pier reviewed engineering institute papers with schedules of data to validate longevity yet.

However any sensible person can look at the the information that is currently available and make a realistic judgment.

It seems to me yours is neither sensible nor realistic.

[LHRFlightman]

SWoll said:

wormus said:

Battery was 4 years old, with a 3 year warranty. So lived 25% beyond the warranty period. Puts EV batteries at 125k miles I'd say.

I've got a gen 1 iPad Air from 2014 in front of me that's never had a battery replacement and will still last multiple days of use on a full charge. That's 3x longer than the original warranty, so by your logic a Tesla EV battery would last 25 years and 300k+ miles. It's also more representative of an average EV charging experience with full charge a couple of times a week rather than than a phone that is getting a full charge every day.

You see how ridiculous your argument is?

Mammasaid said:

At least we know that Wormus doesn't understand basic maths.

Indeed.

I've exactly the same iPad and it does indeed last for days.

I think this now proves beyond doubt that EV batteries will never degrade beyond a useful range and signals the death knell of ICE. Case closed, end of thread.

[Maracus]

LHRFlightman said:

SWoll said:

wormus said:

Battery was 4 years old, with a 3 year warranty. So lived 25% beyond the warranty period. Puts EV batteries at 125k miles I'd say.

I've got a gen 1 iPad Air from 2014 in front of me that's never had a battery replacement and will still last multiple days of use on a full charge. That's 3x longer than the original warranty, so by your logic a Tesla EV battery would last 25 years and 300k+ miles. It's also more representative of an average EV charging experience with full charge a couple of times a week rather than than a phone that is getting a full charge every day.

You see how ridiculous your argument is?

Mammasaid said:

At least we know that Wormus doesn't understand basic maths.

Indeed.

I've exactly the same iPad and it does indeed last for days.

I think this now proves beyond doubt that EV batteries will never degrade beyond a useful range and signals the death knell of ICE. Case closed, end of thread.

This thread cannot end, it is one of the classics

[GT9]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

GT9 said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I found this quite interesting.

1 million miles in a Tesla S


https://thedriven.io/2022/06/15/tesla-model-s-owne...

Having gone through 3 batteries, one of the replacements being second hand as well.
If he was on his fourth battery and let's say that was also ready to expire, that's 250,000 miles per battery.
I'm sure one could find out more about the current situation fo this car, article was mid last year ago.

Indeed, I'd be more worried by the 8 motors needed, that's 125k miles per motor. So it seems EVs can do intergalactic mileages if you are prepared to replace batteries and motors. Bit like Trigger's broom.

For accuracy from the article. Which differs from your statement

"While the first motor lasted 778,000km, he says the last four lasted only 200,000km each."

From an engineering standpoint i would be more interested in understanding the relative poor longevity of subsequent motors.

Do you now accept your post re circa 100K miles battery longevity was just plain wrong?

Edited by Nomme de Plum on Friday 3rd March 11:49

I wouldn't read too much into the life of the subsequent motors, possibly second-hand, possible because once you've broken the seal on the motor/drive housing its never as good as new again. The Tesla motor has the motor drive electronics in the same sub-assembly as the motor, so it might have been a capacitor in the drive that failed or a small PCB, who knows. It might have even been the gears or bearings in the reduction gearing also contained within the motor sub-assembly. There are scores of Tesla 'engine' stripdowns on YT that show the guts.

Are we are going to see another thread titled 'the life and death of EV electric motors'...

P.S. Why do Americans call an engine a motor and a motor an engine, FFS.

[Nomme de Plum]

GT9 said:

I wouldn't read too much into the life of the subsequent motors, possibly second-hand, possible because once you've broken the seal on the motor/drive housing its never as good as new again. The Tesla motor has the motor drive electronics in the same sub-assembly as the motor, so it might have been a capacitor in the drive that failed or a small PCB, who knows. It might have even been the gears or bearings in the reduction gearing also contained within the motor sub-assembly. There are scores of Tesla 'engine' stripdowns on YT that show the guts.

Are we are going to see another thread titled 'the life and death of EV electric motors'...

P.S. Why do Americans call an engine a motor and a motor an engine, FFS.

I was just curious and you could well be correct. Subsequent failures may be attributable to other factors.

I just hope the article now puts to bed this longevity debate.

[Olivergt]

Just to add some more fuel to the fire:

Tesla have an 8yr 150,000mile warranty on Model S and Model X cars

Full details are here:
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/download...

The text is at the beginning of page 7 (it won't let me cut/paste?)

[anonymous-user]

My 12v battery died in my Honda last year and I had to replace it. I bought the car (used) in 2006. So that's 16 years, more than 5 x the warranty period (and the battery was not new when i bought the car.)

So anyone for 500,000+ miles battery life for a Tesla?

That's how it works isn't it Wormus?

[off_again]

Olivergt said:

Just to add some more fuel to the fire:

Tesla have an 8yr 150,000mile warranty on Model S and Model X cars

Full details are here:
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/download...

The text is at the beginning of page 7 (it won't let me cut/paste?)

Interesting and good for them. I know a couple of Model S owners who are over 100k miles and havent been through a battery pack. But I get that this is a small sample size.

What I do find interesting is that this dates from 2021 and they have changed the battery a couple of times since then. I am far from a battery expert, but new Model Y's even have a completely different battery pack (I understand). I wonder if the improved chemistry makes a different. Anyone know?

[TheLurker]

To add another slant to the argument, I think it's important to distinguish between a battery either working or not. As has been shown earlier on, there is a degradation in capacity over time / use.

I'd be really interested in the views of those who are in the industry of what the expected average capacity loss will be over calendar age and cycles, and what the largest degradation factors are likely to be.

I know there are a number of plots earlier on, but I don't 100% trust them as they seem to be read off of the cars BMS which may not be accurate for various reasons.

[off_again]

TheLurker said:

To add another slant to the argument, I think it's important to distinguish between a battery either working or not. As has been shown earlier on, there is a degradation in capacity over time / use.

I'd be really interested in the views of those who are in the industry of what the expected average capacity loss will be over calendar age and cycles, and what the largest degradation factors are likely to be.

I know there are a number of plots earlier on, but I don't 100% trust them as they seem to be read off of the cars BMS which may not be accurate for various reasons.

Good question and I think it varies, but I would love for someone who knows more to step in.

I bought a BMW i3 out of warranty, but I tried to do some due diligence before I dropped the money on it. BMW seems to have a pretty good record for battery degradation and while most suffer some, the later models 94aH models and later are very good. Mine, as an example, had around a 5% drop from the advertised amount. That was a 6 year old car with 40k miles. I was happy with that and absolutely within expectations for other i3 owners.

Earlier 60aH models suffered more loss and it was more critical for them, since they had real world ranges of 60-80 miles! But obviously the car was priced accordingly. I am also aware that VW's seem to drop a lot in the first few months but then level out from there. I wonder what the South Koreans are like though? Since they are pretty accurate on range, battery capacity and usage. I suspect they will be spot on.

There are a few apps you can get that will read the full data and some manufacturers will provide hidden menus to get to the information also (BMW does this). So it should be possible to get the data, I just dont know if anyone has started to collect it.

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

I thought we agreed at least 100k miles was a working assumption, as there was no data to indicate how long they would last beyond that, in the real world. Some of the people have suggested up to 500k miles is possible, without any evidence, just bias. So, not I'm not wrong, any more than they are right.

No we did not agree and nearly every other poster has tried to point this out to you.

If you are not prepared to accept the linked article as at least some reasonable evidence there there are plenty of other articles which indicate your assumption is flawed.

You are correct there are not a list of pier reviewed engineering institute papers with schedules of data to validate longevity yet.

However any sensible person can look at the the information that is currently available and make a realistic judgment.

It seems to me yours is neither sensible nor realistic.

On the other hand, we have this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0UlLVl2JNE&ab...

Quite a bit of content here to indicate these batteries do indeed develop problems.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

I thought we agreed at least 100k miles was a working assumption, as there was no data to indicate how long they would last beyond that, in the real world. Some of the people have suggested up to 500k miles is possible, without any evidence, just bias. So, not I'm not wrong, any more than they are right.

No we did not agree and nearly every other poster has tried to point this out to you.

If you are not prepared to accept the linked article as at least some reasonable evidence there there are plenty of other articles which indicate your assumption is flawed.

You are correct there are not a list of pier reviewed engineering institute papers with schedules of data to validate longevity yet.

However any sensible person can look at the the information that is currently available and make a realistic judgment.

It seems to me yours is neither sensible nor realistic.

On the other hand, we have this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0UlLVl2JNE&ab...

Quite a bit of content here to indicate these batteries do indeed develop problems.

This video is about the Tesla Roadster which you may have picked up for about £30/£40K a few years ago. Maybe about £200K now.

It was one of the first test beds Tesla had and i believe went out of production over a decade ago.

You really are scrapping the barrel.

I hope you did not spend the last few hours trawling to find that.

Batteries and management systems have moved on.

You shoot yourself in the foot with every post and you are just plain wrong.

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

I thought we agreed at least 100k miles was a working assumption, as there was no data to indicate how long they would last beyond that, in the real world. Some of the people have suggested up to 500k miles is possible, without any evidence, just bias. So, not I'm not wrong, any more than they are right.

No we did not agree and nearly every other poster has tried to point this out to you.

If you are not prepared to accept the linked article as at least some reasonable evidence there there are plenty of other articles which indicate your assumption is flawed.

You are correct there are not a list of pier reviewed engineering institute papers with schedules of data to validate longevity yet.

However any sensible person can look at the the information that is currently available and make a realistic judgment.

It seems to me yours is neither sensible nor realistic.

On the other hand, we have this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0UlLVl2JNE&ab...

Quite a bit of content here to indicate these batteries do indeed develop problems.

This video is about the Tesla Roadster which you may have picked up for about £30/£40K a few years ago. Maybe about £200K now.

It was one of the first test beds Tesla had and i believe went out of production over a decade ago.

You really are scrapping the barrel.

I hope you did not spend the last few hours trawling to find that.

Batteries and management systems have moved on.

You shoot yourself in the foot with every post and you are just plain wrong.

Alright grandad, keep your hair on. If you look at the other videos on that channel, you'll see they also repair Model S batteries which are similar in design. Cells still fail, even with advanced battery management. I'm prepared to accept that batteries last quite a long time but by 10-15 years, they do start to develop problems. This bloke has a business repairing them. Why not be more open minded?

Try this one. Interesting to watch the whole thing but he talks about the Model S 8 minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcpPyBYRDcM&ab...

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 3rd March 18:17

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Alright grandad, keep your hair on. If you look at the other videos on that channel, you'll see they also repair Model S batteries which are similar in design. Cells still fail, even with advanced battery management. I'm prepared to accept that batteries last quite a long time but by 10-15 years, they do start to develop problems. This bloke has a business repairing them. Why not be more open minded?

Try this one. Interesting to watch the whole thing but he talks about the Model S 8 minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcpPyBYRDcM&ab...

Edited by wormus on Friday 3rd March 18:17

I've got better things to do on a Friday evening so knock yourself out watching them all.

[djc206]

wormus said:

Alright grandad, keep your hair on. If you look at the other videos on that channel, you'll see they also repair Model S batteries which are similar in design. Cells still fail, even with advanced battery management. I'm prepared to accept that batteries last quite a long time but by 10-15 years, they do start to develop problems. This bloke has a business repairing them. Why not be more open minded?

Try this one. Interesting to watch the whole thing but he talks about the Model S 8 minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcpPyBYRDcM&ab...

Edited by wormus on Friday 3rd March 18:17

There are blokes (and ladies) who’ve built businesses repairing ICE cars before their warranties have expired. Things break, people’s fix them where economically viable. plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

Alright grandad, keep your hair on. If you look at the other videos on that channel, you'll see they also repair Model S batteries which are similar in design. Cells still fail, even with advanced battery management. I'm prepared to accept that batteries last quite a long time but by 10-15 years, they do start to develop problems. This bloke has a business repairing them. Why not be more open minded?

Try this one. Interesting to watch the whole thing but he talks about the Model S 8 minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcpPyBYRDcM&ab...

Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 3rd March 18:17

I've got better things to do on a Friday evening so knock yourself out watching them all.

That's OK, I accept your apology

[NDA]

I note the Model 3 battery warranty (and drive unit) is now 120,000 miles and the S is 150,000 miles.

Anyone expecting to go over these mileages should obviously avoid them.

[SpeckledJim]

NDA said:

I note the Model 3 battery warranty (and drive unit) is now 120,000 miles and the S is 150,000 miles.

Anyone expecting to go over these mileages should obviously avoid them.

It’s no problem. They’ll all fail at 100k per the gospel according to wormus and get replaced by Tesla for free!

God know why Tesla are doing this. It’s clearly terrible business. We should tweet Elon a link to this thread. He might give us 1% of the money we’d save him.