Life and Death of Li Ion batteries

[Evanivitch]

ruggedscotty said:

Some Gump said:

OutInTheShed said:

A little study shows Tesla battery capacity typically heading for the 80% watershed around 10 years:
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla...

Some science about Lithium batteries:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/1945-71...

Summary for shed drivers:
Once a battery is getting down to ~80% of new performance, failure mechanisms are accelerating and it's rapidly downhill.

That mileage one doesn't bode well.for St. elon's "million mile" claims.. Unless you hook up a pantograph and only drive in Blackpool?

For example, the handful of cars with 200,000+ miles were still getting 81 - 87% of their original range, equivalent to over 200 miles.

Seems odd we're using cars with 10 year old technology as an indication of future technology trends.

Can we use 10 year old ICE to make the same projections?

[anonymous-user]

OutInTheShed said:

I think you are quite wrong on a few points.

The government has signed up to carbon neutrality. There is no direct link between votes and unpopular policies, because a lot of those policies stay the same whoever is elected, and people just vote tribally anyway. You only have to look at the London ULEZ to understand the futility of the IC motorist arguing with the inertia of the machine.

I disagree, laws change all the time and so does the political landscape. No government is going to legislate for things that’ll lose them the next election, including making people poorer or taking away their mobility. It’s why the U.K. is extending the life of gas and nuclear power instead of insisting everything is renewables going forward. As for ULEZ, that’s just Khan being a dick.

[Terminator X]

TheBinarySheep said:

wormus said:

If EVs are going to replace ICEs, they need to be just as good at the basics: longevity, easy and affordable to repair & run, decent resale values, as well as range and ease of charging. There's no point looking at the future of motoring through the lens of the high earning people who can afford to buy them new. Too many blinkered people on this thread who'd do well to look at the whole system.

When cars replaced horses, were they as reliable as the horse, were they easy to fix and were they affordable? I bet if PH was around at the time, there'd be the same sorts of dismissive posts. Unreliable, not cheap enough, fuelling network is terrible, it'll never take off, blah blah blah.

Tis nowt like horse Vs car. An EV is just a car with a different "engine". Add it to the list that incl petrol, diesel and hydrogen.

TX.

[SpeckledJim]

wormus said:

OutInTheShed said:

the process of cars replacing horses was very different.
There was no coercion, no looming ban on buying a new horse.
Also to some extent cars didn't directly preplace horses, most of what cars are used for was never done by horses.
If anything, mass car ownership was more about replacing trains, trams and buses.

It was also a slow process.
Still going on really. An awful lot of people are still involved in riding horses for leisure and sport.
Possibly more than are actually involved with motor sport?
The horse racing industry will likely outlive much of IC motor sport.

That’s the point I made in an earlier post - to be adopted, new technology needs to offer something, in terms of utility, that doesn’t already exist. Cars were superior to Horses. Electric cars do nothing better in terms of utility than ICE cars. They’re more expensive, more difficult to fuel, and more expensive and they don’t go as far. Take away the P11D benefit and they don’t have a market. Government won’t force people into them as they care too much about votes and getting people into work. So either the manufacturers solve these problems or today’s EVs will be tomorrow’s Betamax video player.

My EV costs about £180 a year to fuel, and doesn’t break. My previous car, a diesel S-Class, cost about £2500 to fuel. Plus £550 in tax. And let’s very generously assume this year it didn’t break.

With the £2870, I can buy some lovely treats. How’s that for extra utility?

Whoops. It broke all the time. Call it £1000.

£3870 in treats.

[OutInTheShed]

Evanivitch said:

Seems odd we're using cars with 10 year old technology as an indication of future technology trends.

Can we use 10 year old ICE to make the same projections?

The life of a car in the UK is typically 15 + years, so a fair number of people are living with 10 year old tech.

A lot of EVangelists seem to be disowning a big slice of the UK's current EV fleet.

[Evanivitch]

OutInTheShed said:

Evanivitch said:

Seems odd we're using cars with 10 year old technology as an indication of future technology trends.

Can we use 10 year old ICE to make the same projections?

The life of a car in the UK is typically 15 + years, so a fair number of people are living with 10 year old tech.

A lot of EVangelists seem to be disowning a big slice of the UK's current EV fleet.

Do you want to check the numbers first?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_v...

A very small slice indeed. Over 350,000 all-electric cars sold since 2017. Less than 35,000 all-electric cars sold.on the years before. Fewer than 10,000 all-electric cars with "10 year old tech".

From MY 2018 we started to see the larger battery cars (Lead40, Zoe 40kWh etc).

[OutInTheShed]

SpeckledJim said:

My EV costs about £180 a year to fuel, and doesn’t break. My previous car, a diesel S-Class, cost about £2500 to fuel. Plus £550 in tax. And let’s very generously assume this year it didn’t break.

With the £2870, I can buy some lovely treats. How’s that for extra utility?

Whoops. It broke all the time. Call it £1000.

£3870 in treats.

It will go a little way towards the depreciation or rental costs?

It looks like some EV drivers only care about the charging costs, because Daddy pays the lease.

[otolith]

OutInTheShed said:

SpeckledJim said:

My EV costs about £180 a year to fuel, and doesn’t break. My previous car, a diesel S-Class, cost about £2500 to fuel. Plus £550 in tax. And let’s very generously assume this year it didn’t break.

With the £2870, I can buy some lovely treats. How’s that for extra utility?

Whoops. It broke all the time. Call it £1000.

£3870 in treats.

It will go a little way towards the depreciation or rental costs?

It looks like some EV drivers only care about the charging costs, because Daddy pays the lease.

One must assume that it's a like-for-like comparison of new cars.

[LivLL]

otolith said:

OutInTheShed said:

SpeckledJim said:

My EV costs about £180 a year to fuel, and doesn’t break. My previous car, a diesel S-Class, cost about £2500 to fuel. Plus £550 in tax. And let’s very generously assume this year it didn’t break.

With the £2870, I can buy some lovely treats. How’s that for extra utility?

Whoops. It broke all the time. Call it £1000.

£3870 in treats.

It will go a little way towards the depreciation or rental costs?

It looks like some EV drivers only care about the charging costs, because Daddy pays the lease.

One must assume that it's a like-for-like comparison of new cars.

If his garage profile is correct Jim appears to be comparing apples to pumpkins. As for Nissan Leafs never going wrong

Nissan micras rarely go wrong but I wouldn’t swap an S class for one.

EV enthusiasts sometimes get a little carried away with themselves, that or it’s just Jim’s attempt at satire.

[SpeckledJim]

LivLL said:

otolith said:

OutInTheShed said:

SpeckledJim said:

My EV costs about £180 a year to fuel, and doesn’t break. My previous car, a diesel S-Class, cost about £2500 to fuel. Plus £550 in tax. And let’s very generously assume this year it didn’t break.

With the £2870, I can buy some lovely treats. How’s that for extra utility?

Whoops. It broke all the time. Call it £1000.

£3870 in treats.

It will go a little way towards the depreciation or rental costs?

It looks like some EV drivers only care about the charging costs, because Daddy pays the lease.

One must assume that it's a like-for-like comparison of new cars.

If his garage profile is correct Jim appears to be comparing apples to pumpkins. As for Nissan Leafs never going wrong

Nissan micras rarely go wrong but I wouldn’t swap an S class for one.

EV enthusiasts sometimes get a little carried away with themselves, that or it’s just Jim’s attempt at satire.

Granted they're not quite like for like. The S-Class wins on seats, legroom, stereo and round-the-corner headlamps

But the point that I was challenging was that EVs won't catch on unless and until they provide greater utility.

The two cars cost me the same to buy, cost me radically different amounts to run, and are now worth dramatically different amounts (one is effectively junk, can you guess which?).

The 'flagship model' Mercedes has proved to be of poor quality and the grotty shopping Nissan has been of a much higher quality.

It saves me a lot of money, and it is reliable.

Greater utility.

[limpsfield]

OutInTheShed said:

It looks like some EV drivers only care about the charging costs, because Daddy pays the lease.

We are into proper fantasy land now aren't we? Based on my own anecdata and eyeballs, the typical EV driver is a middle-aged bloke. I don't think there are many daddies paying the leases.


Off topic but I did Hampshire to Amsterdam and back over the weekend. Including the charge at home and a couple of superchargers it cost me around £40 for a 750 mile round trip. The European Tesla supercharger network is much more developed than ours, which I think we know. Pretty quiet at the charging stations due, I guess, to more being available throughout the continent. Lots at hotel locations, with 10+ chargers available.

It would be great if we got somewhere near that sort of coverage over here in the next ten years.

[otolith]

SpeckledJim said:

Granted they're not quite like for like. The S-Class wins on seats, legroom, stereo and round-the-corner headlamps

But the point that I was challenging was that EVs won't catch on unless and until they provide greater utility.

The two cars cost me the same to buy, cost me radically different amounts to run, and are now worth dramatically different amounts (one is effectively junk, can you guess which?).

The 'flagship model' Mercedes has proved to be of poor quality and the grotty shopping Nissan has been of a much higher quality.

It saves me a lot of money, and it is reliable.

Greater utility.

And the bolded bit is the like-for-like consideration when allegations of ignoring the capital costs of the EV are slung.

[Nicks90]

Now just to play the devil's advocate to the debate about warranties, manufacturers understanding the failure / cost / reliability function......

Ingenium engine family

You are lucky to get to the end of the warranty period without it going pop.
How JLR are still in business is beyond me

But to play devil's devil's advocate, we haven't yet seen an ev manufacturer make such an equally impressive balls up. I am sure one will do it eventually, but for now let's just all assume (as agreed on here:smile that we can all get to a useful lifespan from an EV without resorting to a warranty to replace the battery.

[Evanivitch]

Nicks90 said:

But to play devil's devil's advocate, we haven't yet seen an ev manufacturer make such an equally impressive balls up. I am sure one will do it eventually, but for now let's just all assume (as agreed on here:smile that we can all get to a useful lifespan from an EV without resorting to a warranty to replace the battery.

Err...

https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-recall

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hyundai-motor-e...

Both are up there with the Zafira fires (because fires are quite a dramatic warranty failure) but neither made much news in UK because of low (or no) sales here.

[Nicks90]

Don't let facts get in the way of a good post, wormus would be very disappointed

[Undercover McNoName]

A 0,025% risk for fire in EVs, compared to a 1,5% risk for petrol cars. Hardly news is it?

[anonymous-user]

Nicks90 said:

Don't let facts get in the way of a good post, wormus would be very disappointed

I must have left a lasting impression, was it my reference to milk floats?

Easy to find the confirmation bias you’re looking for if you Google the right thing

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/9/23546461/bmw-rec...

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...

Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 18th March 09:21

[Evanivitch]

wormus said:

I must have left a lasting impression, was it my reference to milk floats?

Easy to find the confirmation bias you’re looking for if you Google the right thing

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/9/23546461/bmw-rec...

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...

Edited by wormus on Saturday 18th March 09:21

The Toyota one isn't even EV related

[anonymous-user]

Evanivitch said:

The Toyota one isn't even EV related

Eh?

“TOKYO, June 23 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) said on Thursday it would recall 2,700 of its first mass-produced electric vehicles (EVs) for the global market because of a riskthe wheels could come loose.”

[aSharchO]

wormus said:

Evanivitch said:

The Toyota one isn't even EV related

Eh?

“TOKYO, June 23 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) said on Thursday it would recall 2,700 of its first mass-produced electric vehicles (EVs) for the global market because of a risk the wheels could come loose.”

You're a troll.