Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
Interesting times, for sure.
My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
I have been looking at stock at motor point, and prices are still very high imo, and they do have some decent stock vehicles at the minute, far better than it has been recently. Back in October stock was only lasting a week and it was gone, now it seems to stick around.
But still asking more for an almost 3 year old Octavia and Leon that a dealer was offering me new 3 years ago. These are the previous generation models, that i just feel are going to tank when the latest models are more readily available new.
In normal times Motor point would be advertising the Octavia at around £16k, but have them up for £24k.
Also the past month and a bit I am starting to notice more adverts on TV for new cars, I am pretty sure they have dropped off the last year as new car orders were almost impossible to fill, so does that mean the supply chain constraints are loosening, would seem a waste of money to advertise on national TV when customers cannot order, its not suddenly going to change over night but are these signs that things are starting to improve.
But still asking more for an almost 3 year old Octavia and Leon that a dealer was offering me new 3 years ago. These are the previous generation models, that i just feel are going to tank when the latest models are more readily available new.
In normal times Motor point would be advertising the Octavia at around £16k, but have them up for £24k.
Also the past month and a bit I am starting to notice more adverts on TV for new cars, I am pretty sure they have dropped off the last year as new car orders were almost impossible to fill, so does that mean the supply chain constraints are loosening, would seem a waste of money to advertise on national TV when customers cannot order, its not suddenly going to change over night but are these signs that things are starting to improve.
Edited by Theoldguard on Saturday 16th April 13:52
I've been tracking BMW M140i prices on the BMW Used site and WBAC since February. I have been looking to buy one, but get less sure as time goes on.
I track when every car comes up for sale, what spec, the price on BMW Used (daily), WBAC (weekly) and when they sell.
I'm a software developer so wrote an app to do it all and it's been running for a couple of months now.
Some very basic findings from quickly scanning the data:
- WBAC prices dipped early March but are going back up again now
- Many cars sell in less than a week (this is still true even this month). Time to sell seems to have been getting faster.
- BMW take a long time to reduce the price of used cars, but it does happen (normally £250 a time)
- Cars for sale has been reducing fairly rapidly (~180 early Feb down to ~110 now)
It's mildly interesting seeing all the data but it probably doesn't reflect more average cars.
I track when every car comes up for sale, what spec, the price on BMW Used (daily), WBAC (weekly) and when they sell.
I'm a software developer so wrote an app to do it all and it's been running for a couple of months now.
Some very basic findings from quickly scanning the data:
- WBAC prices dipped early March but are going back up again now
- Many cars sell in less than a week (this is still true even this month). Time to sell seems to have been getting faster.
- BMW take a long time to reduce the price of used cars, but it does happen (normally £250 a time)
- Cars for sale has been reducing fairly rapidly (~180 early Feb down to ~110 now)
It's mildly interesting seeing all the data but it probably doesn't reflect more average cars.
Edited by Matt.. on Saturday 16th April 18:57
My take is that diesel is dead now apart from high mileage users.
Once car production and deliveries return to some sort of normal I expect used diesel cars to experience a 20% drop in addition to normal depreciation by April 2023.
Diesel has a big image problem and the fuel price, coupled with the lack of free road tax and the well documented costs to repair the increasingly complex modern diesels has seen their shine rub off.
Petrol cars, especially practical or 'eco' models will be firm.
Those people not ready for an EV and those unwilling or unable to lease or PCP a car will be desperate for these models in the used market.
No change in current prices.
Luxury cars & SUV's will experience a 20%+ drop over the next year. Unfashionable and expensive.
If bills are tight the last thing you need is the prospect of the Range Rover or S8 sat on your drive taking a un planned £2K dump in your lap.
Classic & Sports cars.
These are due a big correction. I know a few people who once WFH gave up their leased car or handed back their PCP car the height of the bubble, we did that with our 320d and netted £5k from a car that was formerly in -ve equity.
In some cases these people used their monthly 'car allowance' to buy 'their dream car' because as one friend put it to me;
"I was paying £400/m for my A4 Estate, once that was handed back I had £6k and went and bought a used R8, the loan on the R8 is £600/m.
Of course once we go back in the office full time I'll have to sell the R8, repay the finance and probably will lease an EV as that's where the incentives are now."
Another friend did exactly the same with a V8 Vantage and reckons he'll be back in a Golf R by Christmas.
I don't know how many of these cars the market can stand to be chasing the same customers and as much as I acknowledge that some brands have a 'floor' through which good ones will not drop I forsee being able to pick up sub £30k R8's and DB9 etc which are not basket cases.
This in turn drives down the prices of the next tier cars, X150 XKR's, Caymans etc.
Classics also take a hit as the same XJ-S that's currently punted at £20K is chasing the same customer who just saw a reasonable DB7 Vantage at £17500.
Already a lot of these cars have been for sale for a long time.
Big GT cars, sub 20mpg toys with £2k/annum running costs? 30% drop by Christmas.
For balance I have no 'dog' in this fight and fully expect to get toasted on my Range Rover SDV8...
...Sub £20k in 2 years.
Once car production and deliveries return to some sort of normal I expect used diesel cars to experience a 20% drop in addition to normal depreciation by April 2023.
Diesel has a big image problem and the fuel price, coupled with the lack of free road tax and the well documented costs to repair the increasingly complex modern diesels has seen their shine rub off.
Petrol cars, especially practical or 'eco' models will be firm.
Those people not ready for an EV and those unwilling or unable to lease or PCP a car will be desperate for these models in the used market.
No change in current prices.
Luxury cars & SUV's will experience a 20%+ drop over the next year. Unfashionable and expensive.
If bills are tight the last thing you need is the prospect of the Range Rover or S8 sat on your drive taking a un planned £2K dump in your lap.
Classic & Sports cars.
These are due a big correction. I know a few people who once WFH gave up their leased car or handed back their PCP car the height of the bubble, we did that with our 320d and netted £5k from a car that was formerly in -ve equity.
In some cases these people used their monthly 'car allowance' to buy 'their dream car' because as one friend put it to me;
"I was paying £400/m for my A4 Estate, once that was handed back I had £6k and went and bought a used R8, the loan on the R8 is £600/m.
Of course once we go back in the office full time I'll have to sell the R8, repay the finance and probably will lease an EV as that's where the incentives are now."
Another friend did exactly the same with a V8 Vantage and reckons he'll be back in a Golf R by Christmas.
I don't know how many of these cars the market can stand to be chasing the same customers and as much as I acknowledge that some brands have a 'floor' through which good ones will not drop I forsee being able to pick up sub £30k R8's and DB9 etc which are not basket cases.
This in turn drives down the prices of the next tier cars, X150 XKR's, Caymans etc.
Classics also take a hit as the same XJ-S that's currently punted at £20K is chasing the same customer who just saw a reasonable DB7 Vantage at £17500.
Already a lot of these cars have been for sale for a long time.
Big GT cars, sub 20mpg toys with £2k/annum running costs? 30% drop by Christmas.
For balance I have no 'dog' in this fight and fully expect to get toasted on my Range Rover SDV8...
...Sub £20k in 2 years.
Stick Legs said:
My take is that diesel is dead now apart from high mileage users.
Once car production and deliveries return to some sort of normal I expect used diesel cars to experience a 20% drop in addition to normal depreciation by April 2023.
Diesel has a big image problem and the fuel price, coupled with the lack of free road tax and the well documented costs to repair the increasingly complex modern diesels has seen their shine rub off.
Petrol cars, especially practical or 'eco' models will be firm.
Those people not ready for an EV and those unwilling or unable to lease or PCP a car will be desperate for these models in the used market.
No change in current prices.
Luxury cars & SUV's will experience a 20%+ drop over the next year. Unfashionable and expensive.
If bills are tight the last thing you need is the prospect of the Range Rover or S8 sat on your drive taking a un planned £2K dump in your lap.
Classic & Sports cars.
These are due a big correction. I know a few people who once WFH gave up their leased car or handed back their PCP car the height of the bubble, we did that with our 320d and netted £5k from a car that was formerly in -ve equity.
In some cases these people used their monthly 'car allowance' to buy 'their dream car' because as one friend put it to me;
"I was paying £400/m for my A4 Estate, once that was handed back I had £6k and went and bought a used R8, the loan on the R8 is £600/m.
Of course once we go back in the office full time I'll have to sell the R8, repay the finance and probably will lease an EV as that's where the incentives are now."
Another friend did exactly the same with a V8 Vantage and reckons he'll be back in a Golf R by Christmas.
I don't know how many of these cars the market can stand to be chasing the same customers and as much as I acknowledge that some brands have a 'floor' through which good ones will not drop I forsee being able to pick up sub £30k R8's and DB9 etc which are not basket cases.
This in turn drives down the prices of the next tier cars, X150 XKR's, Caymans etc.
Classics also take a hit as the same XJ-S that's currently punted at £20K is chasing the same customer who just saw a reasonable DB7 Vantage at £17500.
Already a lot of these cars have been for sale for a long time.
Big GT cars, sub 20mpg toys with £2k/annum running costs? 30% drop by Christmas.
For balance I have no 'dog' in this fight and fully expect to get toasted on my Range Rover SDV8...
...Sub £20k in 2 years.
I disagree with your diesel opinion. With the cost of living soaring, people will appreciate the economy of diesel. Once car production and deliveries return to some sort of normal I expect used diesel cars to experience a 20% drop in addition to normal depreciation by April 2023.
Diesel has a big image problem and the fuel price, coupled with the lack of free road tax and the well documented costs to repair the increasingly complex modern diesels has seen their shine rub off.
Petrol cars, especially practical or 'eco' models will be firm.
Those people not ready for an EV and those unwilling or unable to lease or PCP a car will be desperate for these models in the used market.
No change in current prices.
Luxury cars & SUV's will experience a 20%+ drop over the next year. Unfashionable and expensive.
If bills are tight the last thing you need is the prospect of the Range Rover or S8 sat on your drive taking a un planned £2K dump in your lap.
Classic & Sports cars.
These are due a big correction. I know a few people who once WFH gave up their leased car or handed back their PCP car the height of the bubble, we did that with our 320d and netted £5k from a car that was formerly in -ve equity.
In some cases these people used their monthly 'car allowance' to buy 'their dream car' because as one friend put it to me;
"I was paying £400/m for my A4 Estate, once that was handed back I had £6k and went and bought a used R8, the loan on the R8 is £600/m.
Of course once we go back in the office full time I'll have to sell the R8, repay the finance and probably will lease an EV as that's where the incentives are now."
Another friend did exactly the same with a V8 Vantage and reckons he'll be back in a Golf R by Christmas.
I don't know how many of these cars the market can stand to be chasing the same customers and as much as I acknowledge that some brands have a 'floor' through which good ones will not drop I forsee being able to pick up sub £30k R8's and DB9 etc which are not basket cases.
This in turn drives down the prices of the next tier cars, X150 XKR's, Caymans etc.
Classics also take a hit as the same XJ-S that's currently punted at £20K is chasing the same customer who just saw a reasonable DB7 Vantage at £17500.
Already a lot of these cars have been for sale for a long time.
Big GT cars, sub 20mpg toys with £2k/annum running costs? 30% drop by Christmas.
For balance I have no 'dog' in this fight and fully expect to get toasted on my Range Rover SDV8...
...Sub £20k in 2 years.
Diesel has its own issues now though. The higher RFL on most cars, the requirement for Ad Blue on Euro 6 engines (it's not expensive but its an extra cost and hassle depending how big the tank is). Big mileage Diesels will mean new DPFs which are a 4 figure repair and replacement. I'm doing approx. 15k of commuting a year which means I need something economical but still not sure whether the next car will be diesel. I'm currently limping my 2011 Accord 2.2i Dtec over the 140k mark and it's thrown up the DPF bill recently.
Matt.. said:
I've been tracking BMW M140i prices on the BMW Used site and WBAC since February. I have been looking to buy one, but get less sure as time goes on.
I track when every car comes up for sale, what spec, the price on BMW Used (daily), WBAC (weekly) and when they sell.
I'm a software developer so wrote an app to do it all and it's been running for a couple of months now.
Some very basic findings from quickly scanning the data:
- WBAC prices dipped early March but are going back up again now
- Many cars sell in less than a week (this is still true even this month). Time to sell seems to have been getting faster.
- BMW take a long time to reduce the price of used cars, but it does happen (normally £250 a time)
- Cars for sale has been reducing fairly rapidly (~180 early Feb down to ~110 now)
It's mildly interesting seeing all the data but it probably doesn't reflect more average cars.
I'm such a nerd! Any chance you could share this program? Interesting dataI track when every car comes up for sale, what spec, the price on BMW Used (daily), WBAC (weekly) and when they sell.
I'm a software developer so wrote an app to do it all and it's been running for a couple of months now.
Some very basic findings from quickly scanning the data:
- WBAC prices dipped early March but are going back up again now
- Many cars sell in less than a week (this is still true even this month). Time to sell seems to have been getting faster.
- BMW take a long time to reduce the price of used cars, but it does happen (normally £250 a time)
- Cars for sale has been reducing fairly rapidly (~180 early Feb down to ~110 now)
It's mildly interesting seeing all the data but it probably doesn't reflect more average cars.
Edited by Matt.. on Saturday 16th April 18:57
Chicken Chaser said:
Diesel has its own issues now though. The higher RFL on most cars, the requirement for Ad Blue on Euro 6 engines (it's not expensive but its an extra cost and hassle depending how big the tank is). Big mileage Diesels will mean new DPFs which are a 4 figure repair and replacement. I'm doing approx. 15k of commuting a year which means I need something economical but still not sure whether the next car will be diesel. I'm currently limping my 2011 Accord 2.2i Dtec over the 140k mark and it's thrown up the DPF bill recently.
Untrue. Not all Euro 6 diesels require Ad Blue. Mine doesn’t.Been following the price of my 2016 non AD blue Euro 6 Octavia 1.6TDi with near 60k and full fsh on WBAC and Cazoo etc. Prepandemic was being offered around £5.5k on trade in on Autotrader. Now with more miles on it, been offered £8K by Cazoo and online against a new Corolla. WBAC tend to be around £7k.So despite increase in mileage the value isn’t really decreasing. Despite doing around 60mpg, the extra 20p a litre is still pretty hard.
I’m not sure the new Octavia is going to be a resounding success like the previous generations, Skoda are having major issues with the tech on the new model.
I’m not sure the new Octavia is going to be a resounding success like the previous generations, Skoda are having major issues with the tech on the new model.
Does anyone have experience of these eco 1L and 1.2L vehicles after say 80k miles, it still feels like a small engine for high miles, this is where diesel still is a firm favorite.
I had a 1.2 yeti DSG, I sold at 40k miles due to both concern with the dry 7 speed DSG and just that size engine pulling a fairly heavy car after 60-70k miles.
Great engines when young but I would take a diesel over one once the miles creep up.
I had a 1.2 yeti DSG, I sold at 40k miles due to both concern with the dry 7 speed DSG and just that size engine pulling a fairly heavy car after 60-70k miles.
Great engines when young but I would take a diesel over one once the miles creep up.
Chicken Chaser said:
Diesel has its own issues now though. The higher RFL on most cars, the requirement for Ad Blue on Euro 6 engines (it's not expensive but its an extra cost and hassle depending how big the tank is). Big mileage Diesels will mean new DPFs which are a 4 figure repair and replacement. I'm doing approx. 15k of commuting a year which means I need something economical but still not sure whether the next car will be diesel. I'm currently limping my 2011 Accord 2.2i Dtec over the 140k mark and it's thrown up the DPF bill recently.
If you're doing the mileage DPF's aren't an issue as they're working within their parameters, my daily Mondeo Vignale is now soon to reach (I bought it with 2k on the clock) 90k & I've had no issues at all DPF wise.Also not every Euro6 has AdBlue.
Throttlebody said:
The big boys on the used car market such as CAP HPI, eBay, Auto Trader are now indicating used car values are starting to soften and fall monthly. Looks like a trend developing.
You were only two years too early, Throttlebody! Edited by limpsfield on Sunday 17th April 14:04
on the diesel prices - we've been hearing about the end of diesels since the VW scandal in 2015. I'm not seeing it.
Examples of my car currently on sale - mk7 Golf GTD - prices are higher than what I paid from a main dealer nearly 3 years ago,
Maybe the folk that never needed a diesel in the first place have changed but plenty are still buying diesel. Talking to folk at work a common thing I hear is people like the way diesels drive.
guess we'll just need to wait and see if diesel being 15p per litre more expensive has any effect.
Examples of my car currently on sale - mk7 Golf GTD - prices are higher than what I paid from a main dealer nearly 3 years ago,
Maybe the folk that never needed a diesel in the first place have changed but plenty are still buying diesel. Talking to folk at work a common thing I hear is people like the way diesels drive.
guess we'll just need to wait and see if diesel being 15p per litre more expensive has any effect.
Theoldguard said:
Does anyone have experience of these eco 1L and 1.2L vehicles after say 80k miles, it still feels like a small engine for high miles, this is where diesel still is a firm favorite.
I had a 1.2 yeti DSG, I sold at 40k miles due to both concern with the dry 7 speed DSG and just that size engine pulling a fairly heavy car after 60-70k miles.
Great engines when young but I would take a diesel over one once the miles creep up.
Daughter has the 3cyl 1 litre in an Ateca (manual). She changed jobs after having it a couple of years and is now doing 70 miles a day and seems to here there and everywhere at weekends so the mileage is racking up - it’s on about 50K now and its longevity is certainly a concern. I had a 1.2 yeti DSG, I sold at 40k miles due to both concern with the dry 7 speed DSG and just that size engine pulling a fairly heavy car after 60-70k miles.
Great engines when young but I would take a diesel over one once the miles creep up.
I asked an indie and he said none of the ones they look after had done many miles. Bearing in mind it’s basically the same as a Tiguan it drives amazingly well though.
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