Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
ZX10R NIN said:
Chicken Chaser said:
Diesel has its own issues now though. The higher RFL on most cars, the requirement for Ad Blue on Euro 6 engines (it's not expensive but its an extra cost and hassle depending how big the tank is). Big mileage Diesels will mean new DPFs which are a 4 figure repair and replacement. I'm doing approx. 15k of commuting a year which means I need something economical but still not sure whether the next car will be diesel. I'm currently limping my 2011 Accord 2.2i Dtec over the 140k mark and it's thrown up the DPF bill recently.
If you're doing the mileage DPF's aren't an issue as they're working within their parameters, my daily Mondeo Vignale is now soon to reach (I bought it with 2k on the clock) 90k & I've had no issues at all DPF wise.Also not every Euro6 has AdBlue.
limpsfield said:
Throttlebody said:
The big boys on the used car market such as CAP HPI, eBay, Auto Trader are now indicating used car values are starting to soften and fall monthly. Looks like a trend developing.
You were only two years too early, Throttlebody! Edited by limpsfield on Sunday 17th April 14:04
That first lockdown bit of speculative entertainment.jason61c said:
ZX10R NIN said:
Chicken Chaser said:
Diesel has its own issues now though. The higher RFL on most cars, the requirement for Ad Blue on Euro 6 engines (it's not expensive but its an extra cost and hassle depending how big the tank is). Big mileage Diesels will mean new DPFs which are a 4 figure repair and replacement. I'm doing approx. 15k of commuting a year which means I need something economical but still not sure whether the next car will be diesel. I'm currently limping my 2011 Accord 2.2i Dtec over the 140k mark and it's thrown up the DPF bill recently.
If you're doing the mileage DPF's aren't an issue as they're working within their parameters, my daily Mondeo Vignale is now soon to reach (I bought it with 2k on the clock) 90k & I've had no issues at all DPF wise.Also not every Euro6 has AdBlue.
joropug said:
Why ? Seemed to be well thought of when we bought ours. It has a dpf and ad blue
Edit. Ours is a 150 ,
I’ve got the 140ps common rail engine. Bought the car at 42k miles, it’s on 120k now. No DPF issues or any of the diesel related faults usually mentioned. It’s been a good engine/car (Golf MK6). Still on the original clutch too. Think a lot of these issues can be exaggerated,Edit. Ours is a 150 ,
especially with people repeating what they’ve heard others say online without necessarily having first hand experience.
SteBrown91 said:
vulture1 said:
audi vag 2.0 168bhp diesel engine is a proper grenade of an engine.
You need to be more specific - do you mean the old 2.0 PD engines from 2005ish? Anything from approx 2008 onwards was the CR engine and they are pretty reliable
Running a check on WBAC this morning for half dozen cars, some I have owned the past 6 years the picture I am getting is the newer more expensive vehicles are dropping but the lower priced stuff is holding and rising slightly.
This may just be reflective of the market as new car availability improves and those nearly new or just a few years old and out of warranty are starting to fall.
Both a 10 year and 18 year vehicle have increased by a few hundred pounds the last month, both with over 100k miles, whilst those less than 5 year old under 40k miles have dropped between £400-£650.
I expect this to continue as finances are squeezed and people turn to lower priced vehicles to get from A to B having turned away from the higher priced newer stuff that are no more economical and now out of reach.
The lower end stuff have also not increased by the same amounts so does seem more palatable and a good buy for someone who has sold, pocketed the profit and is downgrading.
Pre covid
£2k
50% increase
£3k
When you compare this to
Pre Covid
£15k
50% increase
£22.5k
It's inevitable the gap will need to close to allow the market to continue as you need those upgrading to keep buying.
In the above example and everything being equal, to upgrade you would now need to find an extra £6.5k.
This may just be reflective of the market as new car availability improves and those nearly new or just a few years old and out of warranty are starting to fall.
Both a 10 year and 18 year vehicle have increased by a few hundred pounds the last month, both with over 100k miles, whilst those less than 5 year old under 40k miles have dropped between £400-£650.
I expect this to continue as finances are squeezed and people turn to lower priced vehicles to get from A to B having turned away from the higher priced newer stuff that are no more economical and now out of reach.
The lower end stuff have also not increased by the same amounts so does seem more palatable and a good buy for someone who has sold, pocketed the profit and is downgrading.
Pre covid
£2k
50% increase
£3k
When you compare this to
Pre Covid
£15k
50% increase
£22.5k
It's inevitable the gap will need to close to allow the market to continue as you need those upgrading to keep buying.
In the above example and everything being equal, to upgrade you would now need to find an extra £6.5k.
Edited by Theoldguard on Tuesday 19th April 13:01
DanoS4 said:
Interesting times, for sure.
My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
Where is it advertised?My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
CG2020UK said:
Now with how tight most peoples budgets are becoming I can’t see many people dropping money on performance cars or even having the money. Quick look online and I can see plenty of 6 year old M2s, M4s, Rs and S3s sitting at £25-30K and been listed for 120+days (highest it goes to).
I personally know no one in the last 8-12months who has bought a used car they have all been leases or PCP as the deals are better. No one is going to PCP a 6 year old used BMW M4 or RS5 with 60K miles for £450 a month when the can lease a brand new car for £300 a month without the headaches.
I definitely don’t see anyone dropping £30-35K in cash on one as if they have that sort of cash they aren’t look at an aged M4 with no warranty with the new M4 and M3 now out.
Who knows if prices will crash. I suppose all you need is one or two over leveraged dealers who think now is the time to take a small hit to sort out their positions and it becomes a race to clear stock which is only losing value the more it sits.
Only way to know is to compare sales from now to before covid.
Exactly what I've done. New BMW PCP 2.9% interest, 3-4 year warranty, decent discount, no worries OR second hand on 8.9% PCP, next to no warranty and likely expenses all the time. No brainer. Oh, and my trade in from Jan is still for sale....I personally know no one in the last 8-12months who has bought a used car they have all been leases or PCP as the deals are better. No one is going to PCP a 6 year old used BMW M4 or RS5 with 60K miles for £450 a month when the can lease a brand new car for £300 a month without the headaches.
I definitely don’t see anyone dropping £30-35K in cash on one as if they have that sort of cash they aren’t look at an aged M4 with no warranty with the new M4 and M3 now out.
Who knows if prices will crash. I suppose all you need is one or two over leveraged dealers who think now is the time to take a small hit to sort out their positions and it becomes a race to clear stock which is only losing value the more it sits.
Only way to know is to compare sales from now to before covid.
Edited by fortfive on Thursday 21st April 14:26
Edited by fortfive on Thursday 21st April 14:28
RM said:
DanoS4 said:
Interesting times, for sure.
My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
Where is it advertised?My motor has been up for sale for the last month. I was very cautious about pricing so bluntly asked for non-BS guide prices on a 911 forum.
Taking into account the marque/forum bias, it was priced competitively and remains the cheapest version with a Hartech rebuild.
So I guessed the pitch was correct.
But the lack of phone calls and emails is telling imho. I’ve had sniffing and some conversations but no commitments.
I don’t really need to sell and its finance-free, so time is on my side. As such I’m watching values with great interest to see if I need to adjust accordingly. A daily driver with about 150 mile per week (cycling not an option despite this rural area, unless you want to be killed).
I personally think that the cost of living has impacted, as has the lack of certainty too.
I (incorrectly?) figured that the marque was relatively impervious to these factors as if you could afford the car, you could afford to run it?
Now I’m not too sure tbh.
The trade thing is also interesting too: I’m looking at something v8 ish too. Offering mine as a p/ex, not a single offer…..
Food for thought.
Dan
Who is paying the crazy prices being asked for ten+ year old white good cars? I am a serial sheddist, and when I bought my current car at ten years old and 61K miles it cost me £1200. Looking to replace it with something similar again and they are asking £5K+.
Now to me this is mental and a £5K car is right in no mans land as it can easily throw you a several thousand pound bill and you have no choice but to get it fixed. I have given up, I am not prepared to pay the prices or spend my weekends traipsing to look at overpriced heaps of junks described as "immaculate"
This week I have done something I thought I would never do and ordered a brand new car, a Dacia Sandero Stepway in recession white. It seemed a no brainer to me, putting £5K down means the monthly payments are £72 a month.
For that I am getting a brand new car, 3 year warranty/breakdown cover, no MOT for 3 years, 2 years free servicing and I don't have to waste my time looking at cars. All for £72 a month more than I was going to pay for a ten year old car with zero warranty that will no doubt need money spending on it.
I am planning on keeping that car forever, especially with the ICE ban in 2030 and I don't have to think about cheap second hand cars and all the potential grief that goes with them.
Now to me this is mental and a £5K car is right in no mans land as it can easily throw you a several thousand pound bill and you have no choice but to get it fixed. I have given up, I am not prepared to pay the prices or spend my weekends traipsing to look at overpriced heaps of junks described as "immaculate"
This week I have done something I thought I would never do and ordered a brand new car, a Dacia Sandero Stepway in recession white. It seemed a no brainer to me, putting £5K down means the monthly payments are £72 a month.
For that I am getting a brand new car, 3 year warranty/breakdown cover, no MOT for 3 years, 2 years free servicing and I don't have to waste my time looking at cars. All for £72 a month more than I was going to pay for a ten year old car with zero warranty that will no doubt need money spending on it.
I am planning on keeping that car forever, especially with the ICE ban in 2030 and I don't have to think about cheap second hand cars and all the potential grief that goes with them.
Interesting point.
I guess a lots of people first of all won’t have the £5k deposit for that deal.
Plus, lots of people won’t want a a Dacia. No judgement from me either way - if someone always wanted a BMW and ends up with a 118d and is really pleased with it, well good for them.
I do think as the cost of living squeeze continues - and I don’t think we are anywhere near feeling the full effect yet - changing cars will be slipping right down the priority list for a lot of people.
So on the one hand you could say - lack of demand, prices drop. But then you have a lack of supply in terms of trade ins etc so the limited stock stays strong. Interesting to watch - I still think that second hand prices will continue to ease off, but what do I know.
I guess a lots of people first of all won’t have the £5k deposit for that deal.
Plus, lots of people won’t want a a Dacia. No judgement from me either way - if someone always wanted a BMW and ends up with a 118d and is really pleased with it, well good for them.
I do think as the cost of living squeeze continues - and I don’t think we are anywhere near feeling the full effect yet - changing cars will be slipping right down the priority list for a lot of people.
So on the one hand you could say - lack of demand, prices drop. But then you have a lack of supply in terms of trade ins etc so the limited stock stays strong. Interesting to watch - I still think that second hand prices will continue to ease off, but what do I know.
Fusion777 said:
Interesting that WBAC offers are taken as evidence when prices are rising, but not when they're falling.
I guess when the prices are falling not a lot of folk will take them up on their ridiculous valuations- I haven’t!When they are rising it’s the opposite and people are trading at those values which is understandable.
Used prices have been topsy turvy over the last year and especially last quarter. I have tracked the value of a 2014 VW Polo 1.4SE Petrol Auto we have on webuyanycar. Purchased from main dealer in November 2019 for £8300 with 14k miles. In December 2021 with 22k miles it was £8100, by Feb £8700, by March £9,100. Now it has come off the boil and is £8,550. US used car prices also now softening, so maybe used prices in the UK are part of a wider trend.
Edited by Ligier on Friday 22 April 07:03
Having spoken to a couple of car dealers recently I can't see supply is going to be improving anytime soon. Speaking to a Kia dealer when I enquired about a Rio he told me the current price was not guaranteed and the manufacturer contribution was not guaranteed. Basically I had to pay the price of the car when it turned up whatever that may be. I got the impression he didn't actually care if I ordered one or not.
If you look at the Ford Focus the website states "Due to customer demand and supply chain disruption, new factory orders are currently unavailable on new Focus.". This is a Ford Focus, the sort of car pre pandemic that they would have had car parks full of and you could have one in a week. I believe the German manufacturers are quoting a year for delivery now.
I believe that new car deliveries will not improve this year and even if they do the backlog is massive so it will take them time to catch up. I also believe that the crazy new prices will increase due to rising costs and there will be no deals to be had, why do they need to bother if you cannot get a car for a year?
This in turn will cause prices of second hand cars to stay high, and it won't be long before that 2030 new ICE ban takes effect and people realise this is their last chance to buy a new car. Once that panic starts it will be impossible to get anything.
This is another reason I ordered the Sandero, the ULEZ charge in Greater London means I need to get rid of the diesel shed by the end of next year anyway. This car will last me 15 years+, it means I don't have to worry about second hand cars or the inevitable panic buying once people realise 2030 isn't that far away.
We will never see cheap second hand cars like we used to, losing 50% in three years.
If you look at the Ford Focus the website states "Due to customer demand and supply chain disruption, new factory orders are currently unavailable on new Focus.". This is a Ford Focus, the sort of car pre pandemic that they would have had car parks full of and you could have one in a week. I believe the German manufacturers are quoting a year for delivery now.
I believe that new car deliveries will not improve this year and even if they do the backlog is massive so it will take them time to catch up. I also believe that the crazy new prices will increase due to rising costs and there will be no deals to be had, why do they need to bother if you cannot get a car for a year?
This in turn will cause prices of second hand cars to stay high, and it won't be long before that 2030 new ICE ban takes effect and people realise this is their last chance to buy a new car. Once that panic starts it will be impossible to get anything.
This is another reason I ordered the Sandero, the ULEZ charge in Greater London means I need to get rid of the diesel shed by the end of next year anyway. This car will last me 15 years+, it means I don't have to worry about second hand cars or the inevitable panic buying once people realise 2030 isn't that far away.
We will never see cheap second hand cars like we used to, losing 50% in three years.
Fusion777 said:
The 2030 date is really 2035 due to hybrids. 13 years is a long time.
Yes but they will have to be proper hybrids, not the mild "shoe box battery and a starter motor stuck on the gearbox" hybrids. It is going to be impossible to buy a cheap, basic car after 2030.That is before all the speed limiters, lane assist, auto braking, adaptive cruise control that slows you down when the speed limit changes nonsense they are going to force all cars to have, further pushing up the price and ruining driving.
Joey Deacon said:
That is before all the speed limiters, lane assist, auto braking, adaptive cruise control that slows you down when the speed limit changes nonsense they are going to force all cars to have, further pushing up the price and ruining driving.
Sadly I also think this will be true.If you want to enjoy driving you'll need to go on track days.
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