Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
I don't even know if my experience is the same as anyone elses or pertinent to the conversation.
i bought a 2nd hand vehicle in Sept of last year and haven't gelled with it so for the last 16days i've been looking to sell it. You have everyone talking about a high bubble and a sellers market as people wanting new cars have upwards of a 12+ month waiting list and the used price market is seeing a boom.
I've started to see a stall in that. Either buyers being savvy and refusing to pay what they say as over the odds value - and why shouldn't they or just a downturn generally maybe due to the fuel prices - and again why wouldn't they.
But i did my market research, i looked at like for like executive saloons, age, miles, spec and priced it accordingly. In the 6 months of owning the car that value i paid has gone down considerably, for only adding about 3k miles to the car. I've improved it in certain areas , wheels, tyres, body etc. Tidied up but i'm in no way looking to recoup what i paid for. I think that 6 month ownership seems to have cost me about £1000 a month in devaluation. And i've still had no one come to view the car or make anything but eye watering rediculous offers. So likely i'll end up selling it at a loss in the region of £6-7000. Which for 6 months is crackers (in my experience - i've never lost money like that on a car i owned before).
The only explanation for this i feel is the market starting to crash/get wise to over inflated pricing and forcing it back down and the negative impact of fuel costs, forcing people out of the market for vehicles altogether.
i bought a 2nd hand vehicle in Sept of last year and haven't gelled with it so for the last 16days i've been looking to sell it. You have everyone talking about a high bubble and a sellers market as people wanting new cars have upwards of a 12+ month waiting list and the used price market is seeing a boom.
I've started to see a stall in that. Either buyers being savvy and refusing to pay what they say as over the odds value - and why shouldn't they or just a downturn generally maybe due to the fuel prices - and again why wouldn't they.
But i did my market research, i looked at like for like executive saloons, age, miles, spec and priced it accordingly. In the 6 months of owning the car that value i paid has gone down considerably, for only adding about 3k miles to the car. I've improved it in certain areas , wheels, tyres, body etc. Tidied up but i'm in no way looking to recoup what i paid for. I think that 6 month ownership seems to have cost me about £1000 a month in devaluation. And i've still had no one come to view the car or make anything but eye watering rediculous offers. So likely i'll end up selling it at a loss in the region of £6-7000. Which for 6 months is crackers (in my experience - i've never lost money like that on a car i owned before).
The only explanation for this i feel is the market starting to crash/get wise to over inflated pricing and forcing it back down and the negative impact of fuel costs, forcing people out of the market for vehicles altogether.
What I recall from the last recession is that the psychological impact of a downturn can be big. Even though people's own financial situation may not change, people become fearful. They become more concerned about their employment situation, less confident about spending, etc. The effect can be contagious, and is in many ways self-perpetuating. It's not helped by the media broadcasting information on rising energy and food bills every day. We may see the same thing this time around.
Fusion777 said:
What I recall from the last recession is that the psychological impact of a downturn can be big. Even though people's own financial situation may not change, people become fearful. They become more concerned about their employment situation, less confident about spending, etc. The effect can be contagious, and is in many ways self-perpetuating. It's not helped by the media broadcasting information on rising energy and food bills every day. We may see the same thing this time around.
Yes and the recent 12-24 months has all been the reverse, supply shortages and so high demand and everyone can buy 'knowing' the prices are on the way up.......I think, lockdown (what else do you spend money on), yolo (partly from covid) and then the sentiment of stable/rising prices gave a surge of demand and values. If you knew any car you buy you could sell for the same or more at any point in the future we could all buy anything pretty much?
I also think the fact that money has no safe haven that pays anything reasonable has bolstered the above.
Up until now people can wait and a buyer will likely come along in short order, the problem as you say in a downturn is the sudden switch around can lead to a few sellers that absolutely have to sell and quick then this can create the sharper drop as people have the sentiment that if they wait another month then it'll be even cheaper.
I'm not sure if we are there yet, but nothing goes up forever and economic factors are looking to pinch us all rather then help us?
Fusion777 said:
What I recall from the last recession is that the psychological impact of a downturn can be big. Even though people's own financial situation may not change, people become fearful. They become more concerned about their employment situation, less confident about spending, etc. The effect can be contagious, and is in many ways self-perpetuating. It's not helped by the media broadcasting information on rising energy and food bills every day. We may see the same thing this time around.
This - I'm fortunate that the current situation will impact me mostly on gas/electric/diesel and for everything else I don't see a massive change. That said, I don't feel comfortable chucking a large sum of money at a car right now. I have been considering it for some time but keep putting it off, especially as the car I have is very economical and I own it outright, the cars I want I will take out a small loan but the running costs will be a lot higher. With the current fuel prices that difference per month has increased quite a bit, coupled with the prices of the cars themselves.
If one of those things balance is out a bit I'll be looking again but with both at a high I'm not interested.
Interesting times for sure, and every time I've thought 'they've got to start coming down' they seem to go up! The Ukraine crisis has further limited supply as loads of components (eg wiring harnesses) come from there, so manufacturers have had to chop and change their supply chains with little to no notice resulting in further delays.
I had to do a tour of car dealers at the weekend as my partner is looking to buy an EV. Most dealerships were very clearly struggling for any kind of stock, Volvo had 3 cars in an otherwise vast and empty showroom, with a further 8 or so outside - the rest of the used car patch was completely barren. Hyundai had 4 cars in the showroom, that we were told were all sold customer lease cars...they didn't know when they'd see another showroom/demo car again. Every single one we visited was in the same boat, surely this will keep prices high?
On the other hand, I have a Macan GTS on order due to arrive imminently. Lead times on these are huge and Porsche shut the factory completely due to Ukraine, I think it's still only on reduced hours now. It's around 18 months minimum for a factory order, and no meaningful used stock as it's a brand new model.
I've been keeping an eye on Autotrader now the first few 'flipped' cars have appeared, however they really don't seem to be selling. The blue one at £90,329 has been there for nearly 3 weeks, I suppose people just aren't willing to pay that for a Macan even in a supply crisis. The list price on these is £65k + options, so these cars probably list around £75k. I'd say £99k was a bit optimistic, although I don't think the supply on these specifically is going to increase much even in the medium term.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?sort=price...
I had to do a tour of car dealers at the weekend as my partner is looking to buy an EV. Most dealerships were very clearly struggling for any kind of stock, Volvo had 3 cars in an otherwise vast and empty showroom, with a further 8 or so outside - the rest of the used car patch was completely barren. Hyundai had 4 cars in the showroom, that we were told were all sold customer lease cars...they didn't know when they'd see another showroom/demo car again. Every single one we visited was in the same boat, surely this will keep prices high?
On the other hand, I have a Macan GTS on order due to arrive imminently. Lead times on these are huge and Porsche shut the factory completely due to Ukraine, I think it's still only on reduced hours now. It's around 18 months minimum for a factory order, and no meaningful used stock as it's a brand new model.
I've been keeping an eye on Autotrader now the first few 'flipped' cars have appeared, however they really don't seem to be selling. The blue one at £90,329 has been there for nearly 3 weeks, I suppose people just aren't willing to pay that for a Macan even in a supply crisis. The list price on these is £65k + options, so these cars probably list around £75k. I'd say £99k was a bit optimistic, although I don't think the supply on these specifically is going to increase much even in the medium term.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?sort=price...
Shrimpvende said:
Interesting times for sure, and every time I've thought 'they've got to start coming down' they seem to go up! The Ukraine crisis has further limited supply as loads of components (eg wiring harnesses) come from there, so manufacturers have had to chop and change their supply chains with little to no notice resulting in further delays.
I had to do a tour of car dealers at the weekend as my partner is looking to buy an EV. Most dealerships were very clearly struggling for any kind of stock, Volvo had 3 cars in an otherwise vast and empty showroom, with a further 8 or so outside - the rest of the used car patch was completely barren. Hyundai had 4 cars in the showroom, that we were told were all sold customer lease cars...they didn't know when they'd see another showroom/demo car again. Every single one we visited was in the same boat, surely this will keep prices high?
On the other hand, I have a Macan GTS on order due to arrive imminently. Lead times on these are huge and Porsche shut the factory completely due to Ukraine, I think it's still only on reduced hours now. It's around 18 months minimum for a factory order, and no meaningful used stock as it's a brand new model.
I've been keeping an eye on Autotrader now the first few 'flipped' cars have appeared, however they really don't seem to be selling. The blue one at £90,329 has been there for nearly 3 weeks, I suppose people just aren't willing to pay that for a Macan even in a supply crisis. The list price on these is £65k + options, so these cars probably list around £75k. I'd say £99k was a bit optimistic, although I don't think the supply on these specifically is going to increase much even in the medium term.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?sort=price...
I'm finding similar though not as great a mark up with the car I'm looking at. I've got a 12 month wait on my RS6 but equivalent specced models that are new or ex demo etc, are still selling for more than what I've paid for mine new. And the dealers don't have any stock, and the good models are not hanging around, they are selling. I know that because I'm keeping my eye out for one that meets my spec which I will have if it's good enough, but they are going sometimes before I've even called up. This does seem to go against the rest of this thread, in that it doesn't seem to be an issue, both money wise and running costs wise, for people to be dropping 110k+ quite quickly. I had to do a tour of car dealers at the weekend as my partner is looking to buy an EV. Most dealerships were very clearly struggling for any kind of stock, Volvo had 3 cars in an otherwise vast and empty showroom, with a further 8 or so outside - the rest of the used car patch was completely barren. Hyundai had 4 cars in the showroom, that we were told were all sold customer lease cars...they didn't know when they'd see another showroom/demo car again. Every single one we visited was in the same boat, surely this will keep prices high?
On the other hand, I have a Macan GTS on order due to arrive imminently. Lead times on these are huge and Porsche shut the factory completely due to Ukraine, I think it's still only on reduced hours now. It's around 18 months minimum for a factory order, and no meaningful used stock as it's a brand new model.
I've been keeping an eye on Autotrader now the first few 'flipped' cars have appeared, however they really don't seem to be selling. The blue one at £90,329 has been there for nearly 3 weeks, I suppose people just aren't willing to pay that for a Macan even in a supply crisis. The list price on these is £65k + options, so these cars probably list around £75k. I'd say £99k was a bit optimistic, although I don't think the supply on these specifically is going to increase much even in the medium term.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-search?sort=price...
That being said, I'm looking for a cheap family car to see me through until I get either my order or a used one, and I'm struggling to justify paying some of the prices being asked for average or below average cars. As said about, the 5-10k bracket seems to be a difficult one right now
It's a really interesting mix of factors at the moment
Cost of living = deflates price of guzzlers
Fuel cost = deflates price of guzzlers
Move to Electric cars = deflates price of dull cars / inflates price of interesting cars? "They'll never make it again" type cars
Inflation = should increase cost of cars as spending power reduces
Agree with others, currently things dont look good for car sales, particularly given March is meant to be a good month.
I specifically purchased a Porsche last year to guard against inflation along with just wanting one, but the other factors now seem to be going against the value of it, in the short term at least
Cost of living = deflates price of guzzlers
Fuel cost = deflates price of guzzlers
Move to Electric cars = deflates price of dull cars / inflates price of interesting cars? "They'll never make it again" type cars
Inflation = should increase cost of cars as spending power reduces
Agree with others, currently things dont look good for car sales, particularly given March is meant to be a good month.
I specifically purchased a Porsche last year to guard against inflation along with just wanting one, but the other factors now seem to be going against the value of it, in the short term at least
Technoholic said:
That being said, I'm looking for a cheap family car to see me through until I get either my order or a used one, and I'm struggling to justify paying some of the prices being asked for average or below average cars. As said about, the 5-10k bracket seems to be a difficult one right now
So what will happen to ICE values over time?
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
aguywalksintoabar said:
So what will happen to ICE values over time?
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
I think it really depends on the car. For sure, looking round EV's with my partner made us realise that electric makes small cars infinitely better. You can already get something like a Hyundai Kona for £35k that will do 300 miles, so they're not far being off ready for the masses and seem to have come round all of a sudden. The end of hateful 4 cylinder diesels and buzzy little petrol engines will be a great thing for most, and I suspect most 'normal' cars will lose value as a result.Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
Even smaller engined premium cars - why would you want a 420i for example when the i4 in 2035 will be smoother, quieter, faster and much cheaper to run?
I think the special stuff will hold value for a while though. By 2034 ICE engines will still be in production, just as hybrids, so fuel won't suddenly shoot up. In fact, it may even come down as demand in the west falls (India, Chine etc are decades behind us on EV adoption). Take the 4 series example, I imagine the ICE M4 will hold value as a noisy M car with all the associated benefits, whereas the lower models will tank as they're replaced by EV.
Supercars and high end sports cars will probably be fairly immune too, with the true greats shooting up in value. I think at a certain level owners are somewhat immune to running costs. It's a bit like the Macan from my previous post, demand hugely outstripping supply even though the GTS is a 25mpg car. I doubt many have cancelled their order based on the rising fuel costs, they want a large petrol engine and are happy to pay for that to an extent. The 2 litre version may not fare so well against the incoming EV version however - I have to admit I think the EV would be the better buy, the 2 litre isn't particularly fast or loud and isn't economical either.
I can see there being a solid enthusiasts market for used ICE, but it will be relatively small- less than 10% of the market, maybe even 5%. There will be demand for ICE at the bottom end- say sub-£4k, for people that want cheap motors.
The majority of people buying new or used will be going electric. 90% of the buying public won't care if their Qashqai/Sportage/Tucson is electric instead of a diesel/petrol 4-pot. Home charging will be pretty much all-pervasive, and rapid public charging will be (damn should be) at a very good standard.
One by one the stumbling blocks and objections will fall- range, choice, price, performance (not really an issue even now), charging infrastructure, so on.
The majority of people buying new or used will be going electric. 90% of the buying public won't care if their Qashqai/Sportage/Tucson is electric instead of a diesel/petrol 4-pot. Home charging will be pretty much all-pervasive, and rapid public charging will be (damn should be) at a very good standard.
One by one the stumbling blocks and objections will fall- range, choice, price, performance (not really an issue even now), charging infrastructure, so on.
aguywalksintoabar said:
So what will happen to ICE values over time?
Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
I think cars will depreciate broadly as they always have. Will there be a gradual decline in value? Or sharp curve to depreciation?
For example, it’s 2035. All ICE production has ceased at Stutgart. There are 20 million ICE engines on UK roads and 14 million electric. The only new car is electric or a used ICE. No one really wants ICE anymore because V Power is £3.20 a litre. Someone’s PCP agreement on the BMW M9 has come to an end. The balloon payment is £38,000 but the M9 is worth £28,000 and people are raving about the all electric M10. Hypothetical and exaggerated example here.
A lifespan of circa 15 years for a typical non-enthusiat car.
People are still going to need cars for under £10k.
A £2k EV in 2035 is likely to be just as compromised, if not more so than a £2k ICE car.
There are virtually no larger EVs built today so there won't be any 13 year old examples for sale in 2035.
stevekoz said:
I don't even know if my experience is the same as anyone elses or pertinent to the conversation.
i bought a 2nd hand vehicle in Sept of last year and haven't gelled with it so for the last 16days i've been looking to sell it. You have everyone talking about a high bubble and a sellers market as people wanting new cars have upwards of a 12+ month waiting list and the used price market is seeing a boom.
I've started to see a stall in that. Either buyers being savvy and refusing to pay what they say as over the odds value - and why shouldn't they or just a downturn generally maybe due to the fuel prices - and again why wouldn't they.
But i did my market research, i looked at like for like executive saloons, age, miles, spec and priced it accordingly. In the 6 months of owning the car that value i paid has gone down considerably, for only adding about 3k miles to the car. I've improved it in certain areas , wheels, tyres, body etc. Tidied up but i'm in no way looking to recoup what i paid for. I think that 6 month ownership seems to have cost me about £1000 a month in devaluation. And i've still had no one come to view the car or make anything but eye watering rediculous offers. So likely i'll end up selling it at a loss in the region of £6-7000. Which for 6 months is crackers (in my experience - i've never lost money like that on a car i owned before).
The only explanation for this i feel is the market starting to crash/get wise to over inflated pricing and forcing it back down and the negative impact of fuel costs, forcing people out of the market for vehicles altogether.
Can I ask what car it was?i bought a 2nd hand vehicle in Sept of last year and haven't gelled with it so for the last 16days i've been looking to sell it. You have everyone talking about a high bubble and a sellers market as people wanting new cars have upwards of a 12+ month waiting list and the used price market is seeing a boom.
I've started to see a stall in that. Either buyers being savvy and refusing to pay what they say as over the odds value - and why shouldn't they or just a downturn generally maybe due to the fuel prices - and again why wouldn't they.
But i did my market research, i looked at like for like executive saloons, age, miles, spec and priced it accordingly. In the 6 months of owning the car that value i paid has gone down considerably, for only adding about 3k miles to the car. I've improved it in certain areas , wheels, tyres, body etc. Tidied up but i'm in no way looking to recoup what i paid for. I think that 6 month ownership seems to have cost me about £1000 a month in devaluation. And i've still had no one come to view the car or make anything but eye watering rediculous offers. So likely i'll end up selling it at a loss in the region of £6-7000. Which for 6 months is crackers (in my experience - i've never lost money like that on a car i owned before).
The only explanation for this i feel is the market starting to crash/get wise to over inflated pricing and forcing it back down and the negative impact of fuel costs, forcing people out of the market for vehicles altogether.
I bought a manual M240i from BMW in September for £24,000, very high spec, in fact, highest specced one on autotrader for at least the past 8 weeks since I have it for sale.
Not 1 single phone call, I priced it from 26,000 down to 23,000 (it was 26 the first time because traders love knocking 4k off a car and I would have been happy with 22).
I then thought maybe it’s coz I’m selling it privately so I gave it to my trader friend to try and sell and again, no calls. It’s now down to £21,600 and still zero interest. The advert runs out in 3 days and im just going to take it back and keep it.
I know what you might be thinking, it’s still over priced but how can I price it less than pre facelift, base spec m240i’s.
Motorway.com offered me 17,300 and WBAC offered 15,000
Scary times :S
If im going to lose that much money on a car, I at least want at least a year from it!
Judging by the offers from buying sites on your beemer I’d say the market is certainly turning.
With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
ChrisH72 said:
Judging by the offers from buying sites on your beemer I’d say the market is certainly turning.
With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
I’d love an m240i but like most buyers the auto is preferred. With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
That said, I think a manual will be a must have for a small but present subset so will just take waiting for the right buyer I wouldn’t rush dropping the price.
ChrisH72 said:
Judging by the offers from buying sites on your beemer I’d say the market is certainly turning.
With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
Thank you, it is a very good car to drive, it also has the adaptive dampers so rides very well. I just have a problem with keeping cars, im always thinking about the next With the uncertainty of rising living costs and especially fuel costs people are obviously not wanting to part with large sums of money, especially if they sense that prices will fall. Trouble is that dealers and private sellers are left with cars they paid a lot for and can’t really afford to sell at reduced prices so it looks like stock will hang around and it’ll take a while before we see major changes.
I found your 240i on AT. It looks a nice car and the price seems fair. I’m surprised you want to sell after only 6 months. I’d keep hold of it personally.
Now that it’s not selling, im just going to keep it for a bit longer until everytning settles
My sister has bought a new VW Polo GTi and she got it from stock.
However is waiting times for new cars something new? I remember my uncle waiting for his Range Rover 6 months back in 2018!
There seems to be lots of second hand cars around here although they seem to be priced quite high. Even 10 or 12 years old Focus with less then 100,000 miles is around 4 to 6k
However is waiting times for new cars something new? I remember my uncle waiting for his Range Rover 6 months back in 2018!
There seems to be lots of second hand cars around here although they seem to be priced quite high. Even 10 or 12 years old Focus with less then 100,000 miles is around 4 to 6k
Edited by ConwyC on Wednesday 30th March 03:42
Gassing Station | Car Buying | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff