Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
darreni said:
AlexNJ89 said:
The last guy couldn't help but respond to everyone and keep repeating his same points, I wonder if this guy will do the same. Time will tell....
Was that AV? Did he flounce?Stigrrs said:
And both of mine have gone up 2 grand on wbacs quote 2 weeks ago.
Prices inevitably are going up to meet other countries. The supply is very low from all manufacturers at the moment and this is due to various factors including chip shortage and Ukraine. It won't get better, only worse.
Cars are ballooning in value and you will see this trend continue despite some people saying its a blip. Unfortunately it's no blip, its the way things are going now.
New car prices are rising massively, supply is low and people still want nice things. The World population is still growing and demand increases more every day.
There will be exceptions to every rule but this car value rise is here to stay just like it has for years elesewhere in the World.
Lots of you will disagree currently but look again at this thread in 2 years and you will see I am correct.
From what I’ve seen prices started to fall in mid February this year, demand is dropping and prices are too. I’m talking about run of the mill cars not the Porsches and Ferrari that you have. Prices inevitably are going up to meet other countries. The supply is very low from all manufacturers at the moment and this is due to various factors including chip shortage and Ukraine. It won't get better, only worse.
Cars are ballooning in value and you will see this trend continue despite some people saying its a blip. Unfortunately it's no blip, its the way things are going now.
New car prices are rising massively, supply is low and people still want nice things. The World population is still growing and demand increases more every day.
There will be exceptions to every rule but this car value rise is here to stay just like it has for years elesewhere in the World.
Lots of you will disagree currently but look again at this thread in 2 years and you will see I am correct.
jimPH said:
darreni said:
AlexNJ89 said:
The last guy couldn't help but respond to everyone and keep repeating his same points, I wonder if this guy will do the same. Time will tell....
Was that AV? Did he flounce? Used car sector would be a ‘bloodbath’ without automotive's supply shortages
https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
Edited by Theoldguard on Monday 13th June 23:02
Theoldguard said:
Used car sector would be a ‘bloodbath’ without automotive's supply shortages
https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
Demand will tail off for the average BMWs/Merc’s/Fords because Dave and Karen who used to have £500 disposable income a month can no longer afford a loan for a car, as their heating bills are now £150 more, food bills are £100 more and mortgage is £200 more, plus interest rates are double now, so the cost of the £15k loan / PCP / HP is much higher. https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
Edited by Theoldguard on Monday 13th June 23:02
Doesn’t really matter what happens with the supply side, the demand side is crippled for the majority of the country. So then either the prices fall, or dealers go under (as not many can survive on low sales volumes).
I imagine more people will stick with what they already have, rather than replace their car blindly. This would mean buying the existing PCP, extending leases at a lower rate or keeping hold of the perfectly good motor that's already been paid for. This may cause a further used car shortage, keeping prices high(ish at least). I reckon we're a year away from any serious price crash, sadly.
Theoldguard said:
Used car sector would be a ‘bloodbath’ without automotive's supply shortages
https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
So, no crash imminent.https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2022...
As we have all been saying, the market is now really struggling and in any other times with good supply we would be seeing a fall in prices and a general difficulty in trying to shift stock with offers to tempt buyers to part with their money.
But supply issues are keeping prices firm for now, dealers are being advised not to slash prices with stocks still low, so it's a battle of wits, people cannot afford or unwilling to buy at these inflated prices whilst at the same time supply issues are still not fully resolved with long lead times on some models and a general low vehicle flow thanks to the past 2 years.
I just cannot see this situation continuing, as supply will eventually get better in the next 12mths, the cost of living is likely to get worse over the next 12mths,.and dealers need to sell cars to make profit.
But from reading the article except for limited sectors the general direction of pricing is down, sales are down. We are in a different place to 18mths ago when prices started their rise.
Edited by Theoldguard on Monday 13th June 23:02
Not surprisingly the bottom end of the market is being hit hardest and the top end is v strong.
Why would manufacturers increase supply when demand had reduced and sourcing components has become challenging?
The smaller market referred to is likely to remain for the foreseeable future.
Manufacturers have 2 years to catch up with. The second they can they will maximise supply. The secondary market is of no interest to them and they will be ramming new cars down people throats. Its pretty obvious that supply is due are the only thing holding prices up and it's pretty obvious that after an exponential rise there's a fall its basic market economics.
China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
Al U said:
I do wonder if he stopped posting or if he actually just got banned from the thread.
Shame he never told us what he did for a living, despite being asked several times and swerving the question every time while calling out other people for swerving his questions.
I think he did in some of the earlier posts on the CV thread, he has a family business that owns various dealerships in the North West, not sure if franchised or used.Shame he never told us what he did for a living, despite being asked several times and swerving the question every time while calling out other people for swerving his questions.
fridaypassion said:
Manufacturers have 2 years to catch up with. The second they can they will maximise supply. The secondary market is of no interest to them and they will be ramming new cars down people throats. Its pretty obvious that supply is due are the only thing holding prices up and it's pretty obvious that after an exponential rise there's a fall its basic market economics.
China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
Manufacturers are more interested in the used market than ever before, they go to great efforts to manage residuals which has become easier with the mass take up of finance products. China will be in and out of lockdown as it suits them as it's currently being used as a political lever.China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
A slow crash is something that doesn't exist, the market is either crashing or it slowly softens which is what's broadly happening now.
Back2theFuji said:
I imagine more people will stick with what they already have, rather than replace their car blindly. This would mean buying the existing PCP, extending leases at a lower rate or keeping hold of the perfectly good motor that's already been paid for. This may cause a further used car shortage, keeping prices high(ish at least). I reckon we're a year away from any serious price crash, sadly.
That lower demand would in turn reduce used sales volumes, which puts pressure on dealers to reduce prices to get more business.It would be interesting to know who buys most new cars in the UK, is it mostly individuals or businesses. If the later, would they also hold onto their cars for longer? I suspect not as its then out of warranty, plus the car manufacturers will find ways to entice them. So supply may not shrink, it will only grow as its currently suppressed.
Speculating here as a layman though
Venisonpie said:
So, no crash imminent.
Not surprisingly the bottom end of the market is being hit hardest and the top end is v strong.
Why would manufacturers increase supply when demand had reduced and sourcing components has become challenging?
The smaller market referred to is likely to remain for the foreseeable future.
I don't think it's imminent but it's finely balanced at the minute and now favours the buyer more than it has done for some time. I would also expect the lower end for fall first and hardest with it having seen the highest gains, some lower priced models have doubled in price from £1500 to £3k not being unheard of, you just don't see those level of increases in the mid to higher end, so the falls there will also be less. Not surprisingly the bottom end of the market is being hit hardest and the top end is v strong.
Why would manufacturers increase supply when demand had reduced and sourcing components has become challenging?
The smaller market referred to is likely to remain for the foreseeable future.
Buyers are under more financial pressures, sellers are holding highly inflated stock that they have not added any value to, its only been market driven due to a supply side issue and some of this stock is pretty poor that sells ok when people are just looking for any car but with prices starting to fall buyers will be looking for better value and quality of goods. We all know that the supply side of things will only get better as they cannot really get any worse than they have been, and I have no doubt that manufacturers have been taking steps to mitigate these issues ever happening again in future, they can get away with it once but should now learn the lessons. I have read reports that a number are looking to bring their chip manufacturing in house.
When you consider the hole in the used market from 2 years of heavily restricted new car sales, it would seem odd for manufactuers to not want to get as many new cars through the door as possible when they are able, if a customer is waiting for 1-2 years when things are seen as normal then serious questions will be asked, they need to clear the backlog of orders before they can start offering shorter lead times. So they are playing catch up and will still want new orders coming in, shortening the lead time is key to this.
Edited by Theoldguard on Tuesday 14th June 10:02
Venisonpie said:
fridaypassion said:
Manufacturers have 2 years to catch up with. The second they can they will maximise supply. The secondary market is of no interest to them and they will be ramming new cars down people throats. Its pretty obvious that supply is due are the only thing holding prices up and it's pretty obvious that after an exponential rise there's a fall its basic market economics.
China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
Manufacturers are more interested in the used market than ever before, they go to great efforts to manage residuals which has become easier with the mass take up of finance products. China will be in and out of lockdown as it suits them as it's currently being used as a political lever.China are out of lockdown now that's given 2 to 3 months of further supply chain issues. Maybe if we are lucky the supply issues will outlast the current economic slowdown but the crash is already here its just happening in slow motion.
A slow crash is something that doesn't exist, the market is either crashing or it slowly softens which is what's broadly happening now.
Jiebo said:
That lower demand would in turn reduce used sales volumes, which puts pressure on dealers to reduce prices to get more business.
It would be interesting to know who buys most new cars in the UK, is it mostly individuals or businesses. If the later, would they also hold onto their cars for longer? I suspect not as its then out of warranty, plus the car manufacturers will find ways to entice them. So supply may not shrink, it will only grow as its currently suppressed.
Speculating here as a layman though
Good points. Will be interesting to see how this plays out!It would be interesting to know who buys most new cars in the UK, is it mostly individuals or businesses. If the later, would they also hold onto their cars for longer? I suspect not as its then out of warranty, plus the car manufacturers will find ways to entice them. So supply may not shrink, it will only grow as its currently suppressed.
Speculating here as a layman though
Spoke with someone I know in the motor trade last week about used car prices. (My brother is looking to change his A4 Allroad.)
He said that a few weeks ago dealers were paying between £1k and £2k over book for good clean cars £20k plus. The market has suddenly slowed and now they are offering £1k behind book for similar vehicles.
On the trek around several Audi dealers to view cars on their websites, the showrooms were completely devoid of customers. One dealer offered £2.5k discount on a £40k order for a new A6 without being asked, quoting sixteen weeks delivery.
Coincidentally I was in the local (Bristol) Audi dealer today for a 'while you wait' MOT and the chap next to me in the waiting area was told by one of the sales people that they are not buying in any stock at present as nothing is selling.
He said that a few weeks ago dealers were paying between £1k and £2k over book for good clean cars £20k plus. The market has suddenly slowed and now they are offering £1k behind book for similar vehicles.
On the trek around several Audi dealers to view cars on their websites, the showrooms were completely devoid of customers. One dealer offered £2.5k discount on a £40k order for a new A6 without being asked, quoting sixteen weeks delivery.
Coincidentally I was in the local (Bristol) Audi dealer today for a 'while you wait' MOT and the chap next to me in the waiting area was told by one of the sales people that they are not buying in any stock at present as nothing is selling.
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