Secondhand car price crash?
Discussion
Driver101 said:
I get what you mean now.
Not many people end up buying the car at the end of the PCP. I would want the GFV as high as possible to keep payments as low as possible. Paying in thousands extra to save hundreds in interest doesn't sound appealing. I would rather have the security of a high GFV.
GFV are usually a good indicator.
Total amount payable is what I look at and with rates at 10% and above using your own money is my preferred choice.Not many people end up buying the car at the end of the PCP. I would want the GFV as high as possible to keep payments as low as possible. Paying in thousands extra to save hundreds in interest doesn't sound appealing. I would rather have the security of a high GFV.
GFV are usually a good indicator.
Xcore said:
Noticed on social media people moaning about their sub 10k performance hot hatches and jdm cars not selling for their inflated prices. Maybe the prices will correct them selves to pre covid levels soon.
The prices have been correcting as in we are seeing pretty much typical depreciation from the high of last year.Sadly some sellers haven't got the memo on that and seem to think their ropey tat is worth a fortune.
Edited by Deep Thought on Sunday 26th March 11:40
shopper150 said:
Are there any good tools available to ‘slice and dice’ data of used car listings across different platforma? I am looking to buy, and am noticing cars being relisted at different prices and sometimes different mileage. I’m sure this is to disguise how long the car has been on the market for etc.
Can anyone recommend some good tools with easy to use interface?
It’s an aggregator rather than a tool, but try Trovit. It scrapes and presents ads from different platforms, including eBay but not including autotrader, and highlights price drops when it detects them. Can anyone recommend some good tools with easy to use interface?
ChrisH72 said:
I've been watching this Fiesta for a few weeks.
http://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/2023021542...
It started off at 18995 and has now been increased to over 20k.
Not sure what cars people are looking at but I'm seeing no reductions with small petrol hot hatches. Quite the opposite in fact.
The people reporting drops are either looking at niche models, poor examples, used EV’s or are smoking crackhttp://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/2023021542...
It started off at 18995 and has now been increased to over 20k.
Not sure what cars people are looking at but I'm seeing no reductions with small petrol hot hatches. Quite the opposite in fact.
What The Deuces said:
ChrisH72 said:
I've been watching this Fiesta for a few weeks.
http://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/2023021542...
It started off at 18995 and has now been increased to over 20k.
Not sure what cars people are looking at but I'm seeing no reductions with small petrol hot hatches. Quite the opposite in fact.
The people reporting drops are either looking at niche models, poor examples, used EV’s or are smoking crackhttp://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/2023021542...
It started off at 18995 and has now been increased to over 20k.
Not sure what cars people are looking at but I'm seeing no reductions with small petrol hot hatches. Quite the opposite in fact.
ChrisH72 said:
I'm genuinely interested to know which cars are cheaper than they were last year. Are we talking brand new or maybe high end cars? Is it mainly expensive EVs like Tesla? Honestly, everything I look at is more expensive now than ever.
I think part of the issue is that people are reporting different things, some quote asking prices, some quote trade prices and some are quoting actual selling prices. As we know, there can be huge variations.ChrisH72 said:
I'm genuinely interested to know which cars are cheaper than they were last year. Are we talking brand new or maybe high end cars? Is it mainly expensive EVs like Tesla? Honestly, everything I look at is more expensive now than ever.
I echo your comments. I got fed up with 1) waiting for a new Hyundai i20N and being told "We don't know when it will be delivered, Sir"; so I cancelled the order, and 2) waiting for used car prices to drop. In general, I found the prices being asked by many private sellers were wildly optimistic, and dealers' prices just weren't budging.Eventually I found a decent deal from a private seller and bought a car. I reasoned that if I waited for prices to fall significantly then I'd be waiting forever: I just don't think it'll happen. Right, now watch for the mother of all price crashes!
Hants PHer said:
ChrisH72 said:
I'm genuinely interested to know which cars are cheaper than they were last year. Are we talking brand new or maybe high end cars? Is it mainly expensive EVs like Tesla? Honestly, everything I look at is more expensive now than ever.
I echo your comments. I got fed up with 1) waiting for a new Hyundai i20N and being told "We don't know when it will be delivered, Sir"; so I cancelled the order, and 2) waiting for used car prices to drop. In general, I found the prices being asked by many private sellers were wildly optimistic, and dealers' prices just weren't budging.Eventually I found a decent deal from a private seller and bought a car. I reasoned that if I waited for prices to fall significantly then I'd be waiting forever: I just don't think it'll happen. Right, now watch for the mother of all price crashes!
I have seen a couple of good ones come up on AT but they sell almost instantly. Motorpoint had a dark blue 22 plate with 3000 miles last week at 23995. I think it was on for a day at most.
nick1871 said:
ChrisH72 said:
I'm genuinely interested to know which cars are cheaper than they were last year. Are we talking brand new or maybe high end cars? Is it mainly expensive EVs like Tesla? Honestly, everything I look at is more expensive now than ever.
I think part of the issue is that people are reporting different things, some quote asking prices, some quote trade prices and some are quoting actual selling prices. As we know, there can be huge variations.I'm only looking at asking prices on AT. But I can't understand why dealers are increasing the prices of used cars if nobody is buying them. Makes no sense to me.
ChrisH72 said:
Did you get a used i20N?
I have seen a couple of good ones come up on AT but they sell almost instantly. Motorpoint had a dark blue 22 plate with 3000 miles last week at 23995. I think it was on for a day at most.
No, I decided I fancied a summer of open top motoring, so went for a 2016 Audi TTS. Of course, it has rained non stop ever since! I might revisit the i20N thing in the autumn, or perhaps a Fiesta ST.I have seen a couple of good ones come up on AT but they sell almost instantly. Motorpoint had a dark blue 22 plate with 3000 miles last week at 23995. I think it was on for a day at most.
What The Deuces said:
The people reporting drops are either looking at niche models, poor examples, used EV’s or are smoking crack
There are definitely subsets of markets where there are falls.The 1-5k smoker barge thread died a death from excessive moderation, and a lack of supply as let's face it, pretty much every car has risen in price.
But, since Christmas, the spread from what the trade buyers will pay to static asks has increased a lot, so sellers are finding they can't say "WBAC will give me £x so pay more", when x has halved for older, thirsty cars.
You could call that a niche, and a reflection of the economy: People doing fewer miles cared less about running costs, so didn't mind something that did sub 20mpg. Now, where the same people may be doing more miles/ be back in the office a fair bit, they're also being squeezed with higher costs all round.
Many cars that were a grand are now 2, but that's down from 3 - 3.5, if not 4. The new floor is driven at least in part by higher scrap and parts prices, and if that doesn't fall, the hard floor will stay higher than it was.
If you want to sell a 15-20 year old petrol S-Class mind, you no longer have a queue of middle and pre-middle aged men indulging their junior exec fantasies. They're now fretting they've moved to mid Wales, have a dog they don't have time for, a s
t local school, a grand a month's worth of gas to pay for, and have to be back in London 3 days a week. They want an Auris, something forgettable. To sell your barge, your price needs to fall.The Fiesta is suffering from blue oval bulls
t, "oh no, no more fiesta's being made, all 42,000,000 ever sold must immediately rise in price". Happy owners. Buyers, well get one if you want, but you can see why their cheap running costs will now be exploited. Macron said:
The Fiesta is suffering from blue oval bullst, "oh no, no more fiesta's being made, all 42,000,000 ever sold must immediately rise in price". Happy owners. Buyers, well get one if you want, but you can see why their cheap running costs will now be exploited.
Seems to be the latest mk8 that this applies to. Sadly my late mk7.5 still appears to be pretty worthless. If I had under 10k to spend on a hot hatch I'd just buy my own car!t, "oh no, no more fiesta's being made, all 42,000,000 ever sold must immediately rise in price". Happy owners. Buyers, well get one if you want, but you can see why their cheap running costs will now be exploited. I've moved on from the i20N as used ones are not good value compared to brand new. And I can't justify 25k for a new one. Might look at them next time.
At the moment I'm considering a face-lift f56 MCS as they look better value than the Fiesta. May not be as sharp to drive but could be better in other ways. Never had a Mini so that appeals.
ChrisH72 said:
At the moment I'm considering a face-lift f56 MCS as they look better value than the Fiesta. May not be as sharp to drive but could be better in other ways. Never had a Mini so that appeals.
Good idea. Try and stretch to a JCW if you can (no real need for LCI either). A bit sharper, great seats, LED as std and excellent brakes. Probably better residuals too.You only need to look at the housing market for how falls are playing out, alot of similarities to the car market.
Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
Fast fords and other similar are not a reflection of the market as a whole, they have their fan clubs and many are young boys who still live at home with plenty disposable or the older gent who will never sell unless an offer he cannot refuse, so they are often in little rush to sell, ICE being phased out and production of certain Ford's ending all add to the upward pressure on pricing.
More broadly depreciation has returned, a few leases of mine I have been tracking are certainly a few grand less now than they were 2 years ago, anything under £10k will be holding firm as people need wheels, the nothing special type vehicle £15k-£30k along with EVs are certainly falling or at least no longer increasing in value and this I feel is only the start as supply improves and other factors come into play and a more normal market after a few years of disruption returns.
Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
Fast fords and other similar are not a reflection of the market as a whole, they have their fan clubs and many are young boys who still live at home with plenty disposable or the older gent who will never sell unless an offer he cannot refuse, so they are often in little rush to sell, ICE being phased out and production of certain Ford's ending all add to the upward pressure on pricing.
More broadly depreciation has returned, a few leases of mine I have been tracking are certainly a few grand less now than they were 2 years ago, anything under £10k will be holding firm as people need wheels, the nothing special type vehicle £15k-£30k along with EVs are certainly falling or at least no longer increasing in value and this I feel is only the start as supply improves and other factors come into play and a more normal market after a few years of disruption returns.
Edited by Theoldguard on Sunday 26th March 15:30
Theoldguard said:
the nothing special type vehicle £15k-£30k along with EVs are certainly falling or at least no longer increasing in value and this I feel is only the start as supply improves and other factors come into play and a more normal market after a few years of disruption returns.
We have been hearing this for years now and you might be right. Or you might be totally wrong. Who knows?What I know for a fact is that nothing special type vehicles £15k-£30k that I have bought and sold over the past 3 years (M2, JCW, X-Ceed) are showing surprising value resilience, and particularly of late. They are depreciating of course but by surprisingly small amounts. Certainly far less than pre COVID. For all we know that might well be a sign of things to come. A bit like a Continental Europe type market. We might just be aligning ourselves, whether by accident or design or a mixture of both.
Theoldguard said:
Seeing the same with houses around here, past 12mths or more they have been rising month on month and each one that comes to market is snapped up within days.
Now prices have levelled off, quite a few of the recently sold (circa last 6 months) have come back onto the market at a lower price, it seems the sale has fallen through (sold sign never removed from the garden), so now prices are falling less seem to want to buy or are holding out for further falls it seems, property certainly hanging around alot longer to sell these days.
That’s one of the classic reasons depreciation is feared by economists. If too many believe prices are falling they hold off purchases and you get a feedback loop that creates more depreciation. If borrowing costs are also going up that’s an additional catalyst.Now prices have levelled off, quite a few of the recently sold (circa last 6 months) have come back onto the market at a lower price, it seems the sale has fallen through (sold sign never removed from the garden), so now prices are falling less seem to want to buy or are holding out for further falls it seems, property certainly hanging around alot longer to sell these days.
I’m seeing the same on property to some extent around here. Not all but many hanging around longer. Sold STC signs that get removed from the for sale and the property may or may not go back on the market. I’m guessing ladders are a factor in whether they do or not.
A few cars I’ve been watching have gone up but it’s winter and they are 4WD/AWD so I’m not going to say it’s evidence of prices rising.
Personally I’ve given up so I’m just going to ask ChatGPT to haggle the best price for me over WhatsApp (joke, for now, it may well end up haggling with itself in that scenario).
Theoldguard said:
You only need to look at the housing market for how falls are playing out, alot of similarities to the car market.
Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
There may be regional variations with property , around here the more expensive houses are taking a while to sell but no signs of prices dropping , everything still seems to be "offers above" at present , cheaper properties do sell much quicker though Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
Edited by Theoldguard on Sunday 26th March 15:30
liner33 said:
Theoldguard said:
You only need to look at the housing market for how falls are playing out, alot of similarities to the car market.
Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
There may be regional variations with property , around here the more expensive houses are taking a while to sell but no signs of prices dropping , everything still seems to be "offers above" at present , cheaper properties do sell much quicker though Larger more expensive properties are being reduced and taking longer to sell, cheaper more affordable property is still holding up well, the gap to move up is certainly closing whereas 18mths ago when we looked at moving there was over £250k difference that's now down to around £200k for similar properties, as property we are looking at are more difficult to sell and taking longer, mortgage costs alot higher and with savings rates more attractive than they have been for quite some time property is now looking rather poor compared to less than 12 mths ago, so sellers if they want to sell are having to reduce their prices and be more realistic about the new financial reality of the market.
Edited by Theoldguard on Sunday 26th March 15:30
Cheap end in the nicer areas is still good but that's mainly driven by local buyers moving or upgrading to a nicer area.
ChrisH72 said:
But I can't understand why dealers are increasing the prices of used cars if nobody is buying them. Makes no sense to me.
Sometimes it's a sales tactic.If people see prices rising, they're more likely to panic buy just in case prices go up even further.
Humans love to buy houses, shares and cryptocurrencies when prices are rising. Perhaps it'll turn out to be the case that they also love to buy cars when prices are rising.
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