Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)

Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)

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JustGetATesla

299 posts

119 months

Wednesday 10th April
quotequote all
Gone fishing said:
JustGetATesla said:
Its largely irrelevant outside the US anyway - we're not going to get it any time soon. Too big a regulatory challenge - if you set your Tesla off on robo taxi service and it kills someone, who is liable?

I am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).

Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
Ah it’s you.. maybe fact check you videos before posting in future, your range video was unbelievably wrong
Part 2 is coming. I wasn’t stupid enough to think Tesla would advertise WLTP - which they can’t deliver - and then use EPA - which they can’t deliver. Either way, the range display in miles is wrong. And the advertised range is wrong. Not sure how my video was “unbelievably wrong” but you watched it, so…

Go on the various Facebook groups. Lots of new Tesla owners very confused because their car doesn’t do - or even display - advertised range. “Is my car broken?” They ask. No, but Tesla do have a problem…

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Wednesday 10th April
quotequote all
JustGetATesla said:
Gone fishing said:
JustGetATesla said:
Its largely irrelevant outside the US anyway - we're not going to get it any time soon. Too big a regulatory challenge - if you set your Tesla off on robo taxi service and it kills someone, who is liable?

I am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).

Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
Ah it’s you.. maybe fact check you videos before posting in future, your range video was unbelievably wrong
Part 2 is coming. I wasn’t stupid enough to think Tesla would advertise WLTP - which they can’t deliver - and then use EPA - which they can’t deliver. Either way, the range display in miles is wrong. And the advertised range is wrong. Not sure how my video was “unbelievably wrong” but you watched it, so…

Go on the various Facebook groups. Lots of new Tesla owners very confused because their car doesn’t do - or even display - advertised range. “Is my car broken?” They ask. No, but Tesla do have a problem…
It’s not wrong, it’s actually one of the most accurate measures of available energy, it’s misunderstood because they change the units to miles using the EPA efficiency ratio, including by you who only knows because you were told in the comments, and your video confused things. The sad thing is some viewers won’t realise and just be more confused over time. If you’d researched it properly you could have explained it and the benefits it gives.

Nobody can tell how far a car will go on the remaining battery because it depends on how it’s driven going forward, looking at how it’s been driven recently is your argument, but next time you are in your car change the distance it’s averaged over.. you’ll see the number change a lot, or check it after you’ve preconditioned heading to a supercharger, it will be dreadful.. all highly variable because EVs are sensitive to numerous factors,




Edited by Gone fishing on Wednesday 10th April 08:28

JustGetATesla

299 posts

119 months

Wednesday 10th April
quotequote all
Gone fishing said:
JustGetATesla said:
Gone fishing said:
JustGetATesla said:
Its largely irrelevant outside the US anyway - we're not going to get it any time soon. Too big a regulatory challenge - if you set your Tesla off on robo taxi service and it kills someone, who is liable?

I am massively skeptical on this subject and have done quite a few videos poking a stick at it (and another out on Friday) - I'm not ramping this. Just pointing out that they do appear to have made a massive advance in the 12.3 release with supposedly 12.4 being another leap forward. Great. Lets assume 13.1 comes along and is flawless. Who is liable when the unmanned vehicle is involved in a crash with fatalities (as is inevitable).

Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we automatically should...
Ah it’s you.. maybe fact check you videos before posting in future, your range video was unbelievably wrong
Part 2 is coming. I wasn’t stupid enough to think Tesla would advertise WLTP - which they can’t deliver - and then use EPA - which they can’t deliver. Either way, the range display in miles is wrong. And the advertised range is wrong. Not sure how my video was “unbelievably wrong” but you watched it, so…

Go on the various Facebook groups. Lots of new Tesla owners very confused because their car doesn’t do - or even display - advertised range. “Is my car broken?” They ask. No, but Tesla do have a problem…
It’s not wrong, it’s actually one of the most accurate measures of available energy, it’s misunderstood because they change the units to miles using the EPA efficiency ratio, including by you who only knows because you were told in the comments, and your video confused things. The sad thing is some viewers won’t realise and just be more confused over time. If you’d researched it properly you could have explained it and the benefits it gives.

Nobody can tell how far a car will go on the remaining battery because it depends on how it’s driven going forward, looking at how it’s been driven recently is your argument, but next time you are in your car change the distance it’s averaged over.. you’ll see the number change a lot, or check it after you’ve preconditioned heading to a supercharger, it will be dreadful.. all highly variable because EVs are sensitive to numerous factors,




Edited by Gone fishing on Wednesday 10th April 08:28
EPA is a test cycle. It is not an accurate display of range. Tesla say that in the manual. “It [driving range display] may not account for your personal driving patterns or external conditions. The displayed range on the touchscreen may decrease faster than the actual distance driven”

People are buying cars based on advertised range. Tesla don’t believe the car will even do the WLTP range. So they show EPA. Which - according to the manual - does not account for how you drive or traffic or weather or temperature or all the other factors which change energy consumption.

It - in summary - is wrong. As Tesla say in the manual. Happy for you to make your own videos and slag mine off. Truth is that people need to stop worrying about range at all. For most people’s journeys most of the time they don’t even need to consider range as their trip is well inside it, regardless of state of charge. Average journey in the UK is a smidge under 10 miles.

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Thursday 11th April
quotequote all
JustGetATesla said:
EPA is a test cycle. It is not an accurate display of range. Tesla say that in the manual. “It [driving range display] may not account for your personal driving patterns or external conditions. The displayed range on the touchscreen may decrease faster than the actual distance driven”

People are buying cars based on advertised range. Tesla don’t believe the car will even do the WLTP range. So they show EPA. Which - according to the manual - does not account for how you drive or traffic or weather or temperature or all the other factors which change energy consumption.

It - in summary - is wrong. As Tesla say in the manual. Happy for you to make your own videos and slag mine off. Truth is that people need to stop worrying about range at all. For most people’s journeys most of the time they don’t even need to consider range as their trip is well inside it, regardless of state of charge. Average journey in the UK is a smidge under 10 miles.
You STILL don’t understand what it’s telling you and why it’s useful. And the WLTP/EPA has nothing to do with it, the car shows range based on EPA, WLTP only makes an appearance on the website. You either accept EVERY range figure is wrong because the future is not predictable, in which case nothing helps, or you look for a realistic metric and EPA is at least consistent






soupdragon1

4,060 posts

97 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
Important day for Tesla stock price today. Strong support at $160 and closed just above that yesterday. If it falls and stays below $160 then it could be a rough outlook in the short term.

Rough outlook in the short term coupled with poor fundamentals for the long term, Tesla will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat quickly, otherwise the share price will plummet in short order.

Huge staff layoffs (at the very least 10% worldwide) and some senior leaders leaving (sacked?) isn't a good look at all and investors will be worried.

Durzel

12,272 posts

168 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
The company has strong fundamentals and market leading margins.

What it desperately needs in my opinion is a CEO who is actually at the helm. It wasn't so long ago that Musk was publicly suggesting that he needed a fat windfall from Tesla in order to feel like he could concentrate on them more, as opposed to his other pursuits. Seems bizarre that a CEO would publicly blackmail one of his own companies, but here we are.

As things stand Musk seems barely present in Tesla's day to day affairs or long term plans. When the Model 3 refresh (a car that hadn't changed in design since it came out) was released it took him over a day to give a one sentence comment about it. After he let 14,000+ people go yesterday he was on Twitter talking about Greece's population problem.

The guy is so distracted that it is weighing the company down in my opinion. I happen to think that he is more damaging as a CEO now than if he was just a consultant, or in some kind of honourary position. His antics on Twitter have also let people see behind the curtain and realise that he doesn't have the Midas Touch with everything.

I think the whole "Robotaxis on 8/8" thing will be a make or break thing for the stock. I'm expecting the latter, because I can'r conceive of how Tesla could have got to Waymo and co's level without being seen on the road. I suspect there will be a tightly controlled, maybe even remote controlled demo on a sanitised route, and Musk will proclaim it'll be everywhere by the end of the year. People aren't buying this bullst anymore.

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
Agree with the above

We've got:

- a Model Y which is in need of a update
- a Model 3 which has just had such an update but doesn't seem to be setting the world on fire
- a Model 3 performance/ludicrous/plaid still being promised and a few leaked pictures but will it sell in the required numbers anyway?
- a Model S and X which date their underpinnings back 10 years and aren't selling
- a Cybertruck which is still a bit marmite, a lot more than promised and has the odd issue
- the Semi which the world has gone very quiet on
- A roadster 2 which has all the Musk halmarks of being massively over hyped and the engineers still scratching their heads how to defy the laws of physics

2 years ago they were slated as 10 years ahead of the competition, it doesn't feel that way today, and whilst the market growth has slowed a lot, it is still growing, only Teslas slice of that is shrinking quicker.

I kind of feel the 8/8 was to buy time rather than because it has something concrete to offer. I know margins are meant to be strong, but they must have taken a battering last quarter - we'll find out on the 23rd April when they do their financial update. I suspect the redundencies are an indication those figures aren't looking great. Hold onto your hats on the 24th.

Durzel

12,272 posts

168 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
100% agree.

I'd go further and say that Musk buying Twitter has been more corrosive to Tesla than one might readily conceive of. Pre that purchase he had this enigmatic, mercurial quality where he could make bold claims about things that would happen and people just accepted it. Pre-Twitter purchase he was often suggested as being a real life Tony Stark.

With Twitter pretty much every "great" idea he's had has been reactionary, knee jerk, and often just obviously terrible to any outside observer. Nothing he's done with it has stuck, Premium subscriptions are in the toilet and having a blue tick was so much of a scarlet letter that they gave subscribers the ability to hide them (soon to be removed, apparently). He has scared advertisers away with his trenchant right wing views.

All of the above taken as a whole has greatly diminished the credulousness that people previously had in his proclamations. Now when he says something will happen by X date people are naturally suspicious. Pre-Twitter he could (and did) string out promise of full self driving for years. He can't do that anymore, people just aren't buying it. This is really bad news for Tesla stock when it trades very heavily on hype.

Tesla needs someone who is going to concentrate on getting their disparate product line in tune, and to accelerate projects that will provide solid fundamentals for the company. They could have released a "normal" truck that took cues from their 3/Y designs and been first to market with it and taken a lot of sales. Instead they have a dumb 1990s movie prop boyhood fantasy made real truck that by all accounts is punishingly difficult to manufacture, failure rates in the field are high, and it fails to deliver on any of the promised specs. This is 100% Musk's fault, and due to his sway over the board.

There is talk of the Model 2 - a model the company desperately needs - is indefinitively postponed. Zealots will argue that "postponed doesn't mean cancelled like Reuters said", but the net result is the same, the company is saying that it is no longer planning to release a new model in 2025. Again, this is likely to be due to Musk's sway.

Tesla needs a CEO like Tim Cook at the helm now. Unsexy, but good at getting decent products out of the door and convincing people to pay a premium price for them.

Edited by Durzel on Tuesday 16th April 12:19

skwdenyer

16,509 posts

240 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
What I’m curious about is that new Cybertruck orders are being offered delivery only in 2025, yet shifts have been reduced in Texas on the line.

Is there an underlying tech problem that’s constraining CT production? Or have they just so badly miscalculated that they’re losing money on every one and want to limit the losses?

As regards layoffs, in the tech world they’re not uncommon at all. Many firms think they keep the organisation lean. Without knowing where those jobs have been lost, it’s hard to form a view, but if you’ve been staffing-up for expected growth and growth isn’t happening, sometimes it is just what has to be done.

TheDeuce

21,613 posts

66 months

Tuesday 16th April
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
What I’m curious about is that new Cybertruck orders are being offered delivery only in 2025, yet shifts have been reduced in Texas on the line.

Is there an underlying tech problem that’s constraining CT production? Or have they just so badly miscalculated that they’re losing money on every one and want to limit the losses?

As regards layoffs, in the tech world they’re not uncommon at all. Many firms think they keep the organisation lean. Without knowing where those jobs have been lost, it’s hard to form a view, but if you’ve been staffing-up for expected growth and growth isn’t happening, sometimes it is just what has to be done.
I think there are some genuine issues with it, and a few bits probably need a redesign. there's been a few honest and unbiased reviews now, and they point to a few things that I would find unacceptable for a new car. A couple of things actually dangerous in fact.

I reckon it's a cool car, but seems a bit half baked - more like a proof of concept than a finished product.

soupdragon1

4,060 posts

97 months

Thursday 18th April
quotequote all
soupdragon1 said:
Important day for Tesla stock price today. Strong support at $160 and closed just above that yesterday. If it falls and stays below $160 then it could be a rough outlook in the short term.

Rough outlook in the short term coupled with poor fundamentals for the long term, Tesla will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat quickly, otherwise the share price will plummet in short order.

Huge staff layoffs (at the very least 10% worldwide) and some senior leaders leaving (sacked?) isn't a good look at all and investors will be worried.
Looks like investors are heading for the exits! Pension funds and retail left holding the bags ffs.

Market cap has nearly dropped by a full Ford since that post on Tuesday. I'm kind of expecting a pause in the sell off, followed by more sell off once Musky Lad screws up the earnings call next week, but if it keeps selling off, things could get nasty, quickly. Nobody is talking about dropping out of S&P500 but that could become a real possibility if the selloffs continue and the earnings take a turn for the worse.

And Musk himself might need some cash to prop up Twitter, causing further turmoil for investors.

flames

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Thursday 18th April
quotequote all
soupdragon1 said:
Market cap has nearly dropped by a full Ford since that post on Tuesday:
That provides some perspective that many are missing

On the plus side, if the bonus they’re voting on again is a quantity not value of shares, it wipontbcost as much at this price, but he is virtually asked for a full BMW as his bonus.

Puzzles

1,837 posts

111 months

Thursday 18th April
quotequote all
Tesla are a solid company but the valuation is nuts imo.

skwdenyer

16,509 posts

240 months

Thursday 18th April
quotequote all
soupdragon1 said:
soupdragon1 said:
Important day for Tesla stock price today. Strong support at $160 and closed just above that yesterday. If it falls and stays below $160 then it could be a rough outlook in the short term.

Rough outlook in the short term coupled with poor fundamentals for the long term, Tesla will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat quickly, otherwise the share price will plummet in short order.

Huge staff layoffs (at the very least 10% worldwide) and some senior leaders leaving (sacked?) isn't a good look at all and investors will be worried.
Looks like investors are heading for the exits! Pension funds and retail left holding the bags ffs.

Market cap has nearly dropped by a full Ford since that post on Tuesday. I'm kind of expecting a pause in the sell off, followed by more sell off once Musky Lad screws up the earnings call next week, but if it keeps selling off, things could get nasty, quickly. Nobody is talking about dropping out of S&P500 but that could become a real possibility if the selloffs continue and the earnings take a turn for the worse.

And Musk himself might need some cash to prop up Twitter, causing further turmoil for investors.

flames
Isn’t this what everyone says every time there’s a wobble? The share price is still higher than Dec 2022, for instance. With these sort of P/E ratios, investor volatility, etc this is the inevitable outcome.

Potentially some significant upside potential for anyone buying now with a counter view to yours smile

For some further context, Apple’s market cap has dropped just as much as Tesla’s recently; are they about to collapse?

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Friday 19th April
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
Isn’t this what everyone says every time there’s a wobble? The share price is still higher than Dec 2022, for instance. With these sort of P/E ratios, investor volatility, etc this is the inevitable outcome.

Potentially some significant upside potential for anyone buying now with a counter view to yours smile

For some further context, Apple’s market cap has dropped just as much as Tesla’s recently; are they about to collapse?
The share price is also the same level it was in late 2020

It’s also predicated not on the car company (doing that it would $30 a share) but on the FSD robotaxi software. The announce of the robotaxi unveil should have boosted the price as it would mark a step closer to becoming reality, but it’s not. Time is running out on that promise and credibility is thin. In the last 6 months or so we’ve had a refreshed model 3, Cybertruck deliveries starting, a new UI overhaul, the US adopting their charging plug.. all positive as a car company (accepting sales are sliding), but FSD gets renamed FSD Supervised. The car company is here to stay unless Musk burns the brand, the fluctuating share price is largely on the belief in Musks longer term vision and the belief in his ability to deliver when he’s poaching AI staff to his own separate company

soupdragon1

4,060 posts

97 months

Friday 19th April
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
Isn’t this what everyone says every time there’s a wobble? The share price is still higher than Dec 2022, for instance. With these sort of P/E ratios, investor volatility, etc this is the inevitable outcome.

Potentially some significant upside potential for anyone buying now with a counter view to yours smile

For some further context, Apple’s market cap has dropped just as much as Tesla’s recently; are they about to collapse?
If we're using Apples share price movements as a bell weather to judge Tesla, then I'll need to adjust my thesis.

Outside of that, lets revisit some recent events:

December 2023 - Sandy Munro talks to Elon Musk about the Model 2. "We're working on a low cost EV that'll be made in very high volume. I review the production line plans for that every week. We're quite advanced in that work. The revolution in manufacturing represented by that car will blow peoples minds. Far in advance of any automotive plants on Earth. 1st production will be in Giga Texas, then Mexico 2nd - It'd take too long to complete the factory in Mexico'

Jan 2024 - 1.8m cars full year 2023 but zero guidance given to investors on margins or volumes for 2024. Why no guidance?

April 2024 - terrible Q1 volumes compared to previous trajectories

April 2024 - Model 2 plans shelved (see December 2023 interview with Sandy Munro - why?)

April 2024 - Share price gets hit with the Model 2 news from Reuters, and instantly, the 8/8 Robotaxi is announced

April 2024 - post Robotaxi 8/8 announcements, 2 very senior directors leave the company (along with huge layoffs, indicating the reduced sales volumes aren't short term)

Why are those key people leaving when the Robotaxi has just been announced? People join 2 and 2 together and think that they are leaving because the Robotaxi announcement was a work of fiction and they can't deliver it for August?

I appreciate there is a lot of space here for me to be very wrong, but these recent events don't fill me with confidence.

durbster

10,277 posts

222 months

Friday 19th April
quotequote all
Was the Model 2 delayed because the company's resources were redirected to the Cybertruck?

Piginapoke

4,768 posts

185 months

Friday 19th April
quotequote all
durbster said:
Was the Model 2 delayed because the company's resources were redirected to the Cybertruck?
Tesla has not confirmed it’s delayed

Gone fishing

7,229 posts

124 months

Friday 19th April
quotequote all
As for comparing to Apple, what are we calling recent? YTD, Tesla down 40%, Apple down 10%

Perhaps Tesla should become a car company after all, BMW YTD is up 3.5%

As for the directors leaving

IIRC, one was head of battery and powertrain - not a lot has happened really on that front for a while, the 4680 cells aren't mainstream, the structrueal battery pack seems to make no difference if they use it at all, it didn't seem to make it into the M3, the Pain had a new trick motor but the M3 Performance appears to be delayed with its trick motor. In fairness, they'e probably got to a point of already close to as good as it can get unless youy look for a significant change in technology, so his job was largely done

The other was policy and business development - well if sales fell under his control he was a dead man walking. And he seems to be as on the ball as your average politician on Self driving and technology talking up the European timescales and then having to talk them back down again.

The vote on Musks pay package is going to be a vote of confidence in him - they're effectively voting for the best part of a 10% share value dilution if share holders give it to him, or I imagine he'll be gone within months it they don't, but he's effectively bullying them - give me the big wedge to keep my interests high and by the way I'm knicking all your AI people for another company I own so imagine what I'll do if you don't give me what I want... Those types of people need to be shown the door pretty quickly as it only gets worse

James6112

4,376 posts

28 months

Monday 22nd April
quotequote all
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1d4g8jz57yo.a...
“ Tesla cuts prices in major markets as sales fall”

That’s going to do a lot for Uk sales.
May as well hang on a while.

Although the comedy interest rates are the killer for the 3.
Pcp 9.6% on the 3, 1.8% on the Y
Making the 5k cheaper 3 more expensive than the Y
So out of the question as a private purchase..