Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
coetzeeh said:
Share price closed at $764. I guess all stocks are going south atm.
Nasdaq is taking a beating but YTD Tesla are down about double the market drop. You have to hand it to all the Tesla directors who sold large chunks at around $1000 over the last few months. Musks brother sold $100m at $1,200 in Nov alone. He could buy those back for $65m today but funnily enough none of the directors have bought a single share lately despite having substantial cash reserves from their share sales, even after paying any tax bills.Smiljan said:
Not sure what blathering about environmentalists has to do with burning Tesla's though - care to elaborate?
It's one of the anti-EV brigade: mining cobalt and producing batteries.He says that 10 years ago, they didn't want to be a "tree-hugger", now they are suddenly all involved in child labor (kobalt) and carbon footprint.
Who are these folks and their imaginary status quo?
I think we all know any form of mass production and vast energy use will result in someone somewhere suffering and environmental damage of some sort. With EVs the hope is the energy use once in the hands of owners is cleaner and renewable and that local pollution is much reduced,
Polestar seem to be the leaders in pushing the real data behind the cars and their often skewed environmental credentials rather than just saying the whole process is wonderful and environmentally sound.
I tend to find there are more outspoken pious EV owners who are similar to smug ex smokers, Before they were quite happy to run around in ICE cars but now they’ve spunked the kids inheritance on a 60 grand Tesla suddenly every ICE driver is a planet killing, child poisoning psychopath.
Anyways back to Tesla going broke are the shares still tanking?
I think we all know any form of mass production and vast energy use will result in someone somewhere suffering and environmental damage of some sort. With EVs the hope is the energy use once in the hands of owners is cleaner and renewable and that local pollution is much reduced,
Polestar seem to be the leaders in pushing the real data behind the cars and their often skewed environmental credentials rather than just saying the whole process is wonderful and environmentally sound.
I tend to find there are more outspoken pious EV owners who are similar to smug ex smokers, Before they were quite happy to run around in ICE cars but now they’ve spunked the kids inheritance on a 60 grand Tesla suddenly every ICE driver is a planet killing, child poisoning psychopath.
Anyways back to Tesla going broke are the shares still tanking?
TameBritishMuslim said:
Mercedes - 2.5 million cars, 23% margin.. economies of scale?
Tesla - 900k cars, 30% margin... and two giant factories to come online this year.
Brilliant time to buy the dip for long term investors!
Two giant, empty factories with no plans to equip them. That will dilute margins. How does one overcome the 40x valuation issue. With Mercedes’ you are paying €1 to gain 20 cents back every year. With Tesla you pay $2 to get 1 cent every year. Put another way, just got you. 5 years payback on Mercedes investment. 200 years with Tesla. Tesla - 900k cars, 30% margin... and two giant factories to come online this year.
Brilliant time to buy the dip for long term investors!
I am not diminishing the herculean task of building two new factories and not failing at it. But, context is king....
Yes, there are a lot of pictures and drone footage of both Berlin and Austin and people proclaiming "Production has started"..... It hasnt. Yes, they are producing cars, but they are certification ones only. Yes, Berlin has allegedly produced 1000 Model Y's, but they have to be certified yet and the German government needs to rubber stamp the process and allow the products to be sold. It seems that Austin has produced some certification models too, but both factories need to work with the government on the final approval process before they can start stamping / approving the VIN's.
There is a massive amount of legal crap around VIN's and what they can go on, the paperwork behind them and what the whole process is - remember, Austin cars cant be sold locally, so have to be shipped out of State, so there is a whole process there. And Berlin is for a WW market too, so the German government needs to make sure that they have a process for export in the EU and outside of the EU. This takes time.
Suspect that the certification process will be finished soon, but with stuff happening around the world, it might not be on the top of the list to solve in a short period of time. Who knows, could happen in a day or two, might take a couple of weeks. And then there is a question on those models that have been built - do they get scrapped? I know that the big OEM's tend to scrap these certification models, because they are considered 'prototypes'.
Even then, the estimates for Berlin are production numbers of around 150,000 - 250,000 for the first year anyway. So yeah, context makes a great difference to photos of a production line, attempting to give the impression its at full swing. Its not.
Yes, there are a lot of pictures and drone footage of both Berlin and Austin and people proclaiming "Production has started"..... It hasnt. Yes, they are producing cars, but they are certification ones only. Yes, Berlin has allegedly produced 1000 Model Y's, but they have to be certified yet and the German government needs to rubber stamp the process and allow the products to be sold. It seems that Austin has produced some certification models too, but both factories need to work with the government on the final approval process before they can start stamping / approving the VIN's.
There is a massive amount of legal crap around VIN's and what they can go on, the paperwork behind them and what the whole process is - remember, Austin cars cant be sold locally, so have to be shipped out of State, so there is a whole process there. And Berlin is for a WW market too, so the German government needs to make sure that they have a process for export in the EU and outside of the EU. This takes time.
Suspect that the certification process will be finished soon, but with stuff happening around the world, it might not be on the top of the list to solve in a short period of time. Who knows, could happen in a day or two, might take a couple of weeks. And then there is a question on those models that have been built - do they get scrapped? I know that the big OEM's tend to scrap these certification models, because they are considered 'prototypes'.
Even then, the estimates for Berlin are production numbers of around 150,000 - 250,000 for the first year anyway. So yeah, context makes a great difference to photos of a production line, attempting to give the impression its at full swing. Its not.
TameBritishMuslim said:
Mercedes - 2.5 million cars, 23% margin.. economies of scale?
Tesla - 900k cars, 30% margin... and two giant factories to come online this year.
Brilliant time to buy the dip for long term investors!
Mercedes- many cars, many vans, lorries, buses, engines, and all the rest.Tesla - 900k cars, 30% margin... and two giant factories to come online this year.
Brilliant time to buy the dip for long term investors!
Tesla- 4 models.
If Mercedes decided to do only 4 cars with limited options, they would have margins above 30% I reckon, 23% with that level of variation shows they are better manufacturers than Tesla )
Never ends 
FT said:
Elon Musk has denied passing information that could have hurt Tesla’s stock price to his brother Kimbal, after a report that both men have become the subject of an insider trading investigation by US regulators.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is inquiring about a sale of the electric car company’s shares by Kimbal Musk the day before his brother launched a poll on Twitter in November over whether he should divest a large slice of his own holding in the company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Responding to an inquiry from the Financial Times, Musk said in an email: “Kimbal had no idea I was going to do a Twitter poll.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3c4a8031-b2a5-42ea-a763-4b5b8afd5164The Securities and Exchange Commission is inquiring about a sale of the electric car company’s shares by Kimbal Musk the day before his brother launched a poll on Twitter in November over whether he should divest a large slice of his own holding in the company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
Responding to an inquiry from the Financial Times, Musk said in an email: “Kimbal had no idea I was going to do a Twitter poll.”
off_again said:
I am not diminishing the herculean task of building two new factories and not failing at it. But, context is king....
Yes, there are a lot of pictures and drone footage of both Berlin and Austin and people proclaiming "Production has started"..... It hasnt. Yes, they are producing cars, but they are certification ones only. Yes, Berlin has allegedly produced 1000 Model Y's, but they have to be certified yet and the German government needs to rubber stamp the process and allow the products to be sold. It seems that Austin has produced some certification models too, but both factories need to work with the government on the final approval process before they can start stamping / approving the VIN's.
There is a massive amount of legal crap around VIN's and what they can go on, the paperwork behind them and what the whole process is - remember, Austin cars cant be sold locally, so have to be shipped out of State, so there is a whole process there. And Berlin is for a WW market too, so the German government needs to make sure that they have a process for export in the EU and outside of the EU. This takes time.
Suspect that the certification process will be finished soon, but with stuff happening around the world, it might not be on the top of the list to solve in a short period of time. Who knows, could happen in a day or two, might take a couple of weeks. And then there is a question on those models that have been built - do they get scrapped? I know that the big OEM's tend to scrap these certification models, because they are considered 'prototypes'.
Even then, the estimates for Berlin are production numbers of around 150,000 - 250,000 for the first year anyway. So yeah, context makes a great difference to photos of a production line, attempting to give the impression its at full swing. Its not.
I agree with most of the above, I was simply replying to:Yes, there are a lot of pictures and drone footage of both Berlin and Austin and people proclaiming "Production has started"..... It hasnt. Yes, they are producing cars, but they are certification ones only. Yes, Berlin has allegedly produced 1000 Model Y's, but they have to be certified yet and the German government needs to rubber stamp the process and allow the products to be sold. It seems that Austin has produced some certification models too, but both factories need to work with the government on the final approval process before they can start stamping / approving the VIN's.
There is a massive amount of legal crap around VIN's and what they can go on, the paperwork behind them and what the whole process is - remember, Austin cars cant be sold locally, so have to be shipped out of State, so there is a whole process there. And Berlin is for a WW market too, so the German government needs to make sure that they have a process for export in the EU and outside of the EU. This takes time.
Suspect that the certification process will be finished soon, but with stuff happening around the world, it might not be on the top of the list to solve in a short period of time. Who knows, could happen in a day or two, might take a couple of weeks. And then there is a question on those models that have been built - do they get scrapped? I know that the big OEM's tend to scrap these certification models, because they are considered 'prototypes'.
Even then, the estimates for Berlin are production numbers of around 150,000 - 250,000 for the first year anyway. So yeah, context makes a great difference to photos of a production line, attempting to give the impression its at full swing. Its not.
Burwood said:
Two giant, empty factories with no plans to equip them...
Which patently isn't true.How about dribbling out a few cars. They are by no means aiming for mass production, so said Lord of the Musk on the Earnings call-oh, I forgot the Tesla millionaire didn't bother listening to it 
Care to comment on Daimlers staggering earnings and growth. The dirty polluting soon to be extinct legacy auto. I mean who is buying their disgusting cars.
A wee joke to lighten your spirits.
How do end up with $1M in Tesla stock profits?.............start with $1.6M unrealised gain 2021
How did TBM make £2m in Tesla?.....It's the internet, it's full of fantasists
Care to comment on Daimlers staggering earnings and growth. The dirty polluting soon to be extinct legacy auto. I mean who is buying their disgusting cars.
A wee joke to lighten your spirits.
How do end up with $1M in Tesla stock profits?.............start with $1.6M unrealised gain 2021
How did TBM make £2m in Tesla?.....It's the internet, it's full of fantasists
So we've established the factories are built and there is plenty of evidence showing them being equipped and even test production.. so you either lied and/ or 
you're posting nonsense.
Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
you're posting nonsense.Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
Edited by TameBritishMuslim on Friday 25th February 15:21
Berlin might be more or less built but they forgot to secure the water supply it seems.
Texas might be built but they forgot to secure the anility to build the batteries in any volume
Musk then makes a few tweets blaming it all on everyone else, Biden, Unions, Covid, global shortages etc etc and tries to get as much sympathy as he can while he and his brother have just shafted a load of investors with their share dealing antics.
Texas might be built but they forgot to secure the anility to build the batteries in any volume
Musk then makes a few tweets blaming it all on everyone else, Biden, Unions, Covid, global shortages etc etc and tries to get as much sympathy as he can while he and his brother have just shafted a load of investors with their share dealing antics.
TameBritishMuslim said:
I agree with most of the above, I was simply replying to:
Thats cool. I do apologize if I came across a little condescending though. I am getting sick and tired of my news feed on some sites and social media constantly pumping the story that "Tesla production is up and running in Austin / Berlin (delete as applicable)". When its clearly being pumped by individuals who either have a vested interest or lack of knowledge around the whole production process. It is a little interesting though - I am certainly NOT an expert on the production process for cars, but I seem to know a hell of a lot more than a lot of so-called journalists on the subject. Its as if they are either are caught by the Dunning Kruger effect or are willfully lying. Its difficult to figure out some times.
That said, I did find a reputable source that suggested that Telsa Berlin needs to product between 2000 and 3000 cars for certification purposes before the German government needs to sign off that the process, tracking and production facility is signed off for export. That puts them clearly at the end of the process now, so maybe its a couple of rubber stamps left to go? I wonder where that leaves the production numbers?
TameBritishMuslim said:
So we've established the factories are built and there is plenty of evidence showing them being equipped and even test production.. so you either lied and/ or you're posting nonsense.
Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
You are asking the wrong questions 'why would you invest in daimler'. Never suggested that. Btw, their job is to maximise earnings and they are doing a great job. you're posting nonsense.Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
Edited by TameBritishMuslim on Friday 25th February 15:21
The problem with your argument is 'Tesla leads =$1T+. That's all you have to say. It's a reflexivity stock that will unravel.
Edited by Burwood on Friday 25th February 18:24
Burwood said:
TameBritishMuslim said:
So we've established the factories are built and there is plenty of evidence showing them being equipped and even test production.. so you either lied and/ or you're posting nonsense.
Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
You are asking the wrong questions 'why would you invest in daimler'. Never suggested that. Btw, their job is to maximise earnings and they are doing a great job. you're posting nonsense.Mercedes-Benz says it will go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions allow".
Last year they produced 227,458 hybrid and electric vehicles (not just pure electric).
It's well established and accepted that EV is the way forward for most road transport and Tesla is the leader in pure EVs in a variety of ways, including numbers of them produced.. therefore, why would I invest in a behemoth from the past trying to pivot at glacial pace when I can invest in the only pure EV company with a proven ability to scale?!
Daimler sold their stake in Tesla in 2014.. imagine if they had held on to it.
I don't know why you seem to think I am a EM 'fan boy'. He can be a d1ck but he is supremely talented.
I've 'lost' about £700k in recent weeks but I've just bought more as my average cost per share is so slow and I'm in it for the long term.
Edited by TameBritishMuslim on Friday 25th February 15:21
The problem with your argument is 'Tesla leads =$1T+. That's all you have to say. It's a reflexivity stock that will unravel.
Edited by Burwood on Friday 25th February 18:24
off_again said:
TameBritishMuslim said:
I agree with most of the above, I was simply replying to:
Thats cool. I do apologize if I came across a little condescending though. I am getting sick and tired of my news feed on some sites and social media constantly pumping the story that "Tesla production is up and running in Austin / Berlin (delete as applicable)". When its clearly being pumped by individuals who either have a vested interest or lack of knowledge around the whole production process. It is a little interesting though - I am certainly NOT an expert on the production process for cars, but I seem to know a hell of a lot more than a lot of so-called journalists on the subject. Its as if they are either are caught by the Dunning Kruger effect or are willfully lying. Its difficult to figure out some times.
That said, I did find a reputable source that suggested that Telsa Berlin needs to product between 2000 and 3000 cars for certification purposes before the German government needs to sign off that the process, tracking and production facility is signed off for export. That puts them clearly at the end of the process now, so maybe its a couple of rubber stamps left to go? I wonder where that leaves the production numbers?
My understanding is similar in that they must produce a certain number of agreed vehiches which they cannot sell to customers but can be used for testing and staff.
With respect to numbers, EM and ZK state that they can increase production by up to 50% using existing facilities and that 2022 will not be battery contrained but chip constrained. Hence, anything from the two new factories will be a bonus. I estimate 1.3 to 1.7m vehicles in 2022.
TameBritishMuslim said:
With respect to numbers, EM and ZK state that they can increase production by up to 50% using existing facilities and that 2022 will not be battery contrained but chip constrained. Hence, anything from the two new factories will be a bonus. I estimate 1.3 to 1.7m vehicles in 2022.
While Tesla isnt as constrained as most of the OEM's, it is impacted, albeit in a small way. Missing USB-C, deliberately not fitting backup steering angle sensors, and thats just what we know about - there is an impact, and its expected that this constraint will continue for a little longer. But, yeah, thats a pretty wide number, but I am going for around 1.4-1.5M total. But then again, I predicted 700k-800k for 2021 and clearly got that wrong! Dont listen to me! That said, they have demand, but balancing this across production and maintaining prices is a challenge that I wouldnt want to have. Its going to be an interesting year to see if they can maintain that demand given increased competition. And this is where I have a problem with the financial markets - they demand one metric, but can miss others. Production number growth is expected to be high, but if Tesla can maintain margins with a smaller production number - the market will punish them. Ah well, what do I know, I am not a financial expert.
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