Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)

[Ouroboros]

Heres Johnny said:

Except every EU car now has a software switch asking if you want to share data because of GDPR in Europe

Yes all sounds fine, they were forced to.

Interesting article from 2020 shows how much data is collected, that obviously isnt really needed but is still collected. Anonymised data will be how they get around this, but very easy to tie it to people.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/they-might-be-se...

''in many respects, Tesla’s processing of data, such as in its Model 3, infringes European privacy and consumer protection rules.” (p. 31; this and all subsequent quotations are translations of the German). From a violation of Art. 5(1)(b) GDPR due to a failure to specify precisely the purposes of data processing, to Tesla’s disregard for its information obligations under Art. 13 and 14 GDPR, the report lists numerous violations of the General Data Protection Regulation that came into force in May 2018. Consequently, it seems questionable whether Tesla’s vehicles should be allowed on European roads at all.''

[sparta6]

Ouroboros said:

Yes all sounds fine, they were forced to.

Interesting article from 2020 shows how much data is collected, that obviously isnt really needed but is still collected. Anonymised data will be how they get around this, but very easy to tie it to people.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/they-might-be-se...

''in many respects, Tesla’s processing of data, such as in its Model 3, infringes European privacy and consumer protection rules.” (p. 31; this and all subsequent quotations are translations of the German). From a violation of Art. 5(1)(b) GDPR due to a failure to specify precisely the purposes of data processing, to Tesla’s disregard for its information obligations under Art. 13 and 14 GDPR, the report lists numerous violations of the General Data Protection Regulation that came into force in May 2018. Consequently, it seems questionable whether Tesla’s vehicles should be allowed on European roads at all.''

So Tesla now wants to know if its drivers are black ?

Seems to tally

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/tesla-sued-by-cali...

[ZesPak]

sparta6 said:

So Tesla now wants to know if its drivers are black ?

Seems to tally

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/tesla-sued-by-cali...

In his defense... He did grow up in South Africa in the 70's.

[Ouroboros]

Tesla looking to cut 10% of workforce and says economy is "super bad"..

[Burwood]

Ouroboros said:

Tesla looking to cut 10% of workforce and says economy is "super bad"..

Wait for a huge earnings miss and a sub $500 share price, followed by 4, 3 and maybe into the 200’s

[Smiljan]

Recruitment stopped, WFH banned, 10% of salaried staff to go. US sales plummeting, Chinese plant struggling to break even despite raising prices across the board, S and X an endangered / extinct species.

Perfect time to open 2 new giant factories and pretend you have a humanoid robot and pick up truck ready to go. The fella is a lunatic. Entertaining though.

Biden’s put down slap was pretty funny today too.

Stock is now down over 40% YTD, how low will it go?

Where is their general council, CFO and head of AI again?

[skwdenyer]

Smiljan said:

Recruitment stopped, WFH banned, 10% of salaried staff to go. US sales plummeting, Chinese plant struggling to break even despite raising prices across the board, S and X an endangered / extinct species.

Perfect time to open 2 new giant factories and pretend you have a humanoid robot and pick up truck ready to go. The fella is a lunatic. Entertaining though.

Biden’s put down slap was pretty funny today too.

Stock is now down over 40% YTD, how low will it go?

Where is their general council, CFO and head of AI again?

Tesla's employment has doubled since the end of 2019. Read about the difference between peace-time and war-time management. With storm clouds gathering, Musk is IMHO right to go early.

The car industry is notoriously bad at predicting the future. There’s a common cycle in which booming consumer demand coupled with long development lead-times often results in lots of new models (especially niche vehicles) ready just as the economy is in decline.

Musk isn’t saying *when* he’d like a 10% reduction. AIUI for now he’s freezing white-collar recruitment whilst continuing to hire those who make the vehicles.

The giant factories aren’t IMHO the problem. To an extent they scale up/down with demand (especially if you multi-skill the workforce). And besides, shuttering California would make sense if demand does drop, in favour of the newer, more efficient plants.

As regards US sales plummeting, where’s the data for that? US sales in Q1 are reportedly up 59% YoY.

There are many potential pitfalls for Tesla. But just because the doom-mongers on Seeking Alpha don’t like Musk doesn’t mean the company is in trouble.

[TheRainMaker]

You just have to look at multiple threads on PH about the unstable financial system and predictions on what is about to happen.

10% staff reduction could well be conservative, who knows.

[rodericb]

Smiljan said:

Recruitment stopped, WFH banned, 10% of salaried staff to go. US sales plummeting, Chinese plant struggling to break even despite raising prices across the board, S and X an endangered / extinct species.

Perfect time to open 2 new giant factories and pretend you have a humanoid robot and pick up truck ready to go. The fella is a lunatic. Entertaining though.

Biden’s put down slap was pretty funny today too.

Stock is now down over 40% YTD, how low will it go?

Where is their general council, CFO and head of AI again?

You forgot about twitter, blood diamonds, hair transplants etc etc....

Do you really think that Biden is going to sagely agree that yes, the US economy is in a dire situation and that someone else should come in and do a better job running the country? And I just looked at the Ford share price and it has dropped even further than Tesla over the past six months.

[delta0]

TheRainMaker said:

You just have to look at multiple threads on PH about the unstable financial system and predictions on what is about to happen.

10% staff reduction could well be conservative, who knows.

It’s not going to be like the 2008 crash. This is an economy overheating type recession and a debt driven one. It will be less devastating if it happens. I think you are right we will see more cutbacks than this if it is prolonged.

[Smiljan]

rodericb said:

You forgot about twitter, blood diamonds, hair transplants etc etc....

Do you really think that Biden is going to sagely agree that yes, the US economy is in a dire situation and that someone else should come in and do a better job running the country? And I just looked at the Ford share price and it has dropped even further than Tesla over the past six months.

Oooh, hadn't heard about his blood diamonds. Pray, tell me more.

Biden is an arse, I just enjoy the other arse getting some back his way. He's so thin skinned he can't help but respond.

I don't really follow Ford stocks and this is a thread about Tesla so not sure why that matters. Ford has been a basket case for decades but somehow always manages to muddle on through. Tesla, not so much. Still the young pup and still can trip over it's own tail and fall down the stairs, especially with a gobby lunatic at the helm.

[Durzel]

If I’d sunk how much I spent on my Model 3 in 2020 into TSLA stock instead I could’ve bought 3 of them now, and at one point 6.

Tesla stock being overcooked doesn’t mean it’s going to crash to “4, 3 and maybe into the 200’s”. I don’t think even 500 is realistic in the current climate. People need to stop letting their anti-Tesla emotion cloud their judgement, as it looks silly when they’re consistently wrong in their proclamations.

[Smiljan]

To be fair Durzel it’s dropped 40% YTD so far after many proclaimed the stock would double or triple when it was already at $1200 per share.

[ZesPak]

Smiljan said:

To be fair Durzel it’s dropped 40% YTD so far after many proclaimed the stock would double or triple when it was already at $1200 per share.

I've seen lots of bonkers claims, but I've never seen that one?

[Durzel]

Smiljan said:

To be fair Durzel it’s dropped 40% YTD so far after many proclaimed the stock would double or triple when it was already at $1200 per share.

That’s equally as ridiculous as the people suggesting it’s going to crater, in my opinion. The people suggesting that, I mean.

[Smiljan]

ZesPak said:

Smiljan said:

To be fair Durzel it’s dropped 40% YTD so far after many proclaimed the stock would double or triple when it was already at $1200 per share.

I've seen lots of bonkers claims, but I've never seen that one?

Just one of many predictions

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wh...

and Musk himself pumping the idea when the stock was in the $700s

https://www.business-standard.com/article/internat...

Edited by Smiljan on Sunday 5th June 19:53

[Burwood]

To achieve 2,500 they need to sell at least 8m cars and maintain existing margins (they won’t ). And still have a PE of 50.

It’s going to be rough for Tesla longs going forward.

[off_again]

skwdenyer said:

Tesla's employment has doubled since the end of 2019. Read about the difference between peace-time and war-time management. With storm clouds gathering, Musk is IMHO right to go early.

The car industry is notoriously bad at predicting the future. There’s a common cycle in which booming consumer demand coupled with long development lead-times often results in lots of new models (especially niche vehicles) ready just as the economy is in decline.

MMmm, Tesla has a good amount of demand and orders are still taking time to fulfill at the moment. And remember, they keep putting the prices UP, so clearly there isnt a demand problem. So its doom and gloom for Tesla? Not from what I am seeing and hearing.

As for how Musk did this? Yeah, that was a real crappy move. Seriously, is this how you would expect a CEO to operate? Everyone must work 40 hours in the office and if you arent at your desk, we assume you have resigned? Mmm, thats nice, considerate and fair. No HR violations going to happen there. And lets not forget that Tesla just hired a company to monitor employees around the management of the potential unionization of the workforce….. yeah, thats not great.

skwdenyer said:

Musk isn’t saying *when* he’d like a 10% reduction. AIUI for now he’s freezing white-collar recruitment whilst continuing to hire those who make the vehicles.

Yes, the nuance was missed by some of the press. Delivery and manufacturing will continue to hire. Slimming product development? Not sure thats the right way forward, but we dont have details of where the 10% reduction is though, just guessing.

skwdenyer said:

The giant factories aren’t IMHO the problem. To an extent they scale up/down with demand (especially if you multi-skill the workforce). And besides, shuttering California would make sense if demand does drop, in favour of the newer, more efficient plants.

It’s a real shame, but its probably fair to expect that the Fremont factor isnt long for this world. However, its going to really piss a lot of people off and its going to be a PR nightmare for them. The amount of incentives, tax rebates and cash to setup and build out the business there - and the minimum of investments that Tesla has put back into Fremont, only to close it because “its not cost effective” is going to hurt them. Lets see how this pans out, but Tesla have been pushing the whole California thing for years now. Mmmm, maybe they can pull it off, but not so sure.

skwdenyer said:

As regards US sales plummeting, where’s the data for that? US sales in Q1 are reportedly up 59% YoY.

There are many potential pitfalls for Tesla. But just because the doom-mongers on Seeking Alpha don’t like Musk doesn’t mean the company is in trouble.

Yeah, not seeing a slow down in sales and demand is still strong. I still think that Tesla is missing a massive trick with the lack of personalization, build to order and efficiency in the product process. I know that keeping it simple means they can just build anything and sell it - but as potential demand drops, a way to solve this is to move to greater personalization and customization and allow customers to pay more for specific models. But building 10,000 white Model 3’s with the crappy wheels worked before, but maybe building to customer demand is the way forward?

[ZesPak]

off_again said:

skwdenyer said:

As regards US sales plummeting, where’s the data for that? US sales in Q1 are reportedly up 59% YoY.

There are many potential pitfalls for Tesla. But just because the doom-mongers on Seeking Alpha don’t like Musk doesn’t mean the company is in trouble.

Yeah, not seeing a slow down in sales and demand is still strong. I still think that Tesla is missing a massive trick with the lack of personalization, build to order and efficiency in the product process. I know that keeping it simple means they can just build anything and sell it - but as potential demand drops, a way to solve this is to move to greater personalization and customization and allow customers to pay more for specific models. But building 10,000 white Model 3’s with the crappy wheels worked before, but maybe building to customer demand is the way forward?

From all of what Tesla has done and shown, they don't really have the setup for it. This requires another skill entirely that they are clearly still lacking and thus didn't focus on.

You're right though, it is a massive miss in profit but you do have to commend Tesla for recognizing them not being able to do it and thus not pursuing it for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, if you compare Tesla to Apple, they too have a product that "just works", comes in a couple of memory sizes and a couple of colours.
If you want to personalize it, put a cover on it later. I've seen many people struggle to pick one of a thousand Android phones with different specs and functionality, instead of "just" getting an iPhone.
The paradox of choice is a real thing that has been tested many times, and I firmly believe it applies to cars as well.
As we can see with the trend for automatics, suv's, 4wd, sound insulation,... most people don't buy a car because they enjoy it. They want something that does the job, maybe has a good badge and is easy to drive.

I've done it myself, I went to Jaguar, Audi, Porsche and Tesla when looking for a new car. With the other manufacturers, deciding on the model is just the first step in a process of configuring a car 10 times to come to the spec I like. This is fun the first couple of times but does get tedious. With Tesla, you pick the colour and order it.

So while I do believe it was mainly a decision of ineptitude, I don't believe it's a bad marketing strategy going forward.

[coetzeeh]

After producing 11k cars in April, Tesla Shanghai built 33k cars in May according the the Chinese Passenger Cars Association.

Tesla Shanghai produced 182k cars in Q1.