Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
Ouroboros said:
So Tesla's balance sheet gains wiped out by the 500 million loss in BTC. Down a bill from the highs.
With a rocky time ahead, really poor decision to tie up cash in such a volatile asset.
Tesla has $18bn cash on its balance sheet. At one point, its $1.5bn investment in BTC was worth $3bn. Whether it will be again is an interesting question. Whether Tesla should have cashed out half its holdings at the peak is another one.With a rocky time ahead, really poor decision to tie up cash in such a volatile asset.
The problem of course is whether BTC has any actual fundamentals to analyse. There's a guy "Crypto Capo" who's getting fêted right now for having correctly called the slump in BTC and other coins. The problem? The same guy was confidently predicting BTC would reach $200k not so very long ago. Even a broken clock is right...
£46k for the cheapest Tesla now with zero options. 
Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with
The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another,
Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with
The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another, Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 16th June 17:00
soupdragon1 said:
skwdenyer said:
Tesla has $18bn cash on its balance sheet
Doesn't mean they've got $18B in the bank though, just on the 'balance sheet' 
Smiljan said:
£46k for the cheapest Tesla now with zero options.
Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another,
Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Yep, interest rates up, well here in the US, squeeze on borrowing and add into that a price hike? Ouch.Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with
The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another, Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 16th June 17:00
https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/16/23170714/tesla-...
Not great. So the $35k Model 3 that never really existed is now a $46k car and one you really want in the 3 line up is now $58k and the Model Y is $66k. Yikes. The VW ID4 starts at $41k, the Kia EV6 starts at $41k and the Mustang Mach-e starts at $44k.
I agree that you need to bump up the other models to get close to the spec and performance of the Model Y, at which the price difference isnt as much. But as Tesla continues to move up in the price, other manufacturers are stepping in with cheaper cars to fill the gap. Tesla still has the demand and awareness, but I will keep saying it, being the first into a particular market is an advantage, but it does not guarantee success in the long term.
And seriously, watch out for the South Koreans - they are starting to sell EV models in an increasing volume and across a wide price band (Genesis recently launched an EV model). Lets see what happens, but they take this stuff very serious and seem to have the focus to make this happen!
off_again said:
Smiljan said:
£46k for the cheapest Tesla now with zero options.
Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another,
Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Yep, interest rates up, well here in the US, squeeze on borrowing and add into that a price hike? Ouch.Must be all that demand.
£46 k and the owners clubs advise you to download a checklist of things to snag when you pick up your new car so you can enter them on the app and get them sorted sometime later, there’s even a list of bits they ran out of that the cars don’t come with
The whole Tesla story is nuts. Apparently they now include used cars in their monthly delivery numbers inc cars Tesla themselves buy in one country and sell in another, Still, people seem to like them and finance is cheap isn’t it…
Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 16th June 17:00
https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/16/23170714/tesla-...
Not great. So the $35k Model 3 that never really existed is now a $46k car and one you really want in the 3 line up is now $58k and the Model Y is $66k. Yikes. The VW ID4 starts at $41k, the Kia EV6 starts at $41k and the Mustang Mach-e starts at $44k.
I agree that you need to bump up the other models to get close to the spec and performance of the Model Y, at which the price difference isnt as much. But as Tesla continues to move up in the price, other manufacturers are stepping in with cheaper cars to fill the gap. Tesla still has the demand and awareness, but I will keep saying it, being the first into a particular market is an advantage, but it does not guarantee success in the long term.
And seriously, watch out for the South Koreans - they are starting to sell EV models in an increasing volume and across a wide price band (Genesis recently launched an EV model). Lets see what happens, but they take this stuff very serious and seem to have the focus to make this happen!
That plan has well and truly stalled and they don't seem to care at all. There must be huge pressure on their raw materials and production costs to hike the prices up that high. There isn't much to the car itself, no engine, no gearbox, noting to the interior and just a regular chassis and cheap pressings for body panels. Why is it so costly?
You can get a new version of the Niro which does everything the Model 3 does brand new for £35k.
Anyone recall this
The reason for the demand to return to the office was obvious at the time. It is due to his commitment to reducing headcount by 10%. If people quit he does not have to provide packages. It is the arrogance and hypocrisy that he shows using WFH to get "cheap" head count reduction and shows he does not give a s
t about his employees.
Musk said:
"Anyone who wishes to do remote work must be in the office for a minimum (and I mean *minimum*) of 40 hours per week or depart Tesla. This is less than we ask of factory workers,"
Musk said:
"If you don't show up, we will assume you have resigned."
Today...Musk said:
“If someone can only work remotely, and they’re exceptional, it wouldn’t make sense to fire them,”
I appreciate, on the surface the first 2 quotes are from a manufacturing company and the second is from tech. But, the reality is that Tesla sells itself as a tech company on wheels and they have a significant number of employees that do not tighten nuts and bolts. The reason for the demand to return to the office was obvious at the time. It is due to his commitment to reducing headcount by 10%. If people quit he does not have to provide packages. It is the arrogance and hypocrisy that he shows using WFH to get "cheap" head count reduction and shows he does not give a s
t about his employees.skwdenyer said:
soupdragon1 said:
skwdenyer said:
Tesla has $18bn cash on its balance sheet
Doesn't mean they've got $18B in the bank though, just on the 'balance sheet' 
It’s coming. The big reset. It’s just a bit more time
Smiljan said:
Yep, to be fair as well the Chinese 3 SR made now is vastly superior to the 2019 US made cars and has some better equipment on board but I thought the whole point of the 3 was that it's made in vast quantities and their superior techniques for making simple cars would mean they'd be cheaper over the years.
You could order a Model X in 2016 for £64K, bare in mind at the time battery prices were alot higher than now. With the latest US price increase a base X is going to cost £102K, not that you can even order a RHD one, even the US cars are showing 2023 delivery now. EVs are probably the only tech product that seem to be getting more expensive with time, yes range has gone up but not by any dramatic rate, and certainly no where near how quickly prices have shot up. Given no one knows how inflation/interest rates are going, I suspect a £50K 'base' Model 3 probably isn't that far away.
h0b0 said:
I appreciate, on the surface the first 2 quotes are from a manufacturing company and the second is from tech. But, the reality is that Tesla sells itself as a tech company on wheels and they have a significant number of employees that do not tighten nuts and bolts.
The reason for the demand to return to the office was obvious at the time. It is due to his commitment to reducing headcount by 10%. If people quit he does not have to provide packages. It is the arrogance and hypocrisy that he shows using WFH to get "cheap" head count reduction and shows he does not give a st about his employees.
Unless WFH was made an unconditional right (as opposed to a temporary change), I suspect he can just fire anyone who doesn’t return to the office when instructed so to do. Any state or federal laws mandating WFH provision would override that, of course.The reason for the demand to return to the office was obvious at the time. It is due to his commitment to reducing headcount by 10%. If people quit he does not have to provide packages. It is the arrogance and hypocrisy that he shows using WFH to get "cheap" head count reduction and shows he does not give a s
t about his employees.gangzoom said:
gangzoom said:
I suspect a £50K 'base' Model 3 probably isn't that far away.
Well that didn't take long, poverty spec SR Model 3 is now £48.5k, even £50k by the end of the year is looking 'cheap', £55k for a base Model 3 come next year this time?It's simple supply and demand, whether its because they've been production constrained or because of excessive demand, they have a backlog, they can put their proces up. It's the same with customer service, they don't need to spend the money on looking after customers because people are buying them, often driven by their 12 year old kids (I've been asked 3 times in the last week by kids if I'd swap ours with their dads car). It's no accident they've making a big margin at the moment. I think its safe to say at some point that margin will be under pressure when they need to fix service experience and bring down their prices, but right now they'd be stupid not to charge as much as they can. It's how businesses work.
Heres Johnny said:
gangzoom said:
gangzoom said:
I suspect a £50K 'base' Model 3 probably isn't that far away.
Well that didn't take long, poverty spec SR Model 3 is now £48.5k, even £50k by the end of the year is looking 'cheap', £55k for a base Model 3 come next year this time?It's simple supply and demand, whether its because they've been production constrained or because of excessive demand, they have a backlog, they can put their proces up. It's the same with customer service, they don't need to spend the money on looking after customers because people are buying them, often driven by their 12 year old kids (I've been asked 3 times in the last week by kids if I'd swap ours with their dads car). It's no accident they've making a big margin at the moment. I think its safe to say at some point that margin will be under pressure when they need to fix service experience and bring down their prices, but right now they'd be stupid not to charge as much as they can. It's how businesses work.
I'm sure when supply eventually meets up with demand, relevant competitors catch up then maybe prices will adjust accordingly.
For the the majority of car drivers (ie non pistonheads people), Tesla remains aspirational and whilst this is the case they can keep the prices high. As Here's Johnny says, kids still look and stare when they see a Tesla which doesn't really happen when they see an ID4 cruising by.
As an aside, is there anything equivalent in the £50-£60k market space that competes on an even footing with the Tesla?
Smiljan said:
Takemeaway said:
For the the majority of car drivers....................Tesla remains aspirational
I know the sun is hot today but this really did make me laugh out loud.When there's much to be critical about Tesla which you discover after you've ordered (ie delivery experience is better at a food bank, service is hit and miss, technology is nowhere near as good as people believe, that type of thing), and yet people still flock to buy them as the defacto choice for an EV, then what would you call it?
Smiljan said:
Takemeaway said:
For the the majority of car drivers....................Tesla remains aspirational
I know the sun is hot today but this really did make me laugh out loud.These are the same people that used to drive 3-series or C-classes.
So while they might be ubiquitous in your eyes, the average car sold is still well under 40k GBP. Of the top 10 most popular cars in the UK, only the 3 series will go over 30k on a regular basis. If the best sold car is a <20k Corsa or Fiesta, it's hard to imagine the Model 3 being 2,5x as expensive as "aspirational". And that's the cheapest model.
So yes, in my experience that statement is very accurate, and even if you don't fully agree with it, I'd say you're the one who needs to stay out of the sun if that makes you laugh out loud.
Gassing Station | Tesla | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff